redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 49
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September 3rd, 2020 at 11:38:51 AM permalink
In case anyone is interested, last Saturday 1-AA top 15 squads Central Arkansas and Austin Peay opened the college football season. Testing was done Wednesday, so as to conform to 72-hour-in-advance recommendations. Presumably all games will conform to the 72-hour rule, until they don't.

Here's the rub: Austin Peay's best player, an all-american receiver wound up being held out of the game. But it was not announced until the game started. It was also not explicitly made clear it was a covid issue, although that was the rumor. So the test results were "private."

Central Arkansas was a four-point favorite and won and covered via a last minute touchdown. The absence of Peay's best receiver undoubtedly had a large impact on the game.

So you can draw your own conclusions about the problems handicapping anything this season.

Unless you're a team doctor, of course. Then fire away, baby.
Last edited by: redietz on Sep 3, 2020
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 767
September 3rd, 2020 at 12:33:11 PM permalink
This is a big deal:

https://www.johnsoncitypress.com/sports/national/penn-state-doc-about-a-third-of-covid-19-positive-athletes-in-big-ten-had/article_19f979e2-aa9c-5343-a462-8d85810e0972.html
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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September 3rd, 2020 at 3:46:47 PM permalink
With all the information available at the time of the bet, what is the probability of a win or cover? And what odds are being offered?

Those are usually the only two things I ever care about when making a bet.

Outside of the Fourth of July hotdog contest, I can't recall making any bets based on any inside information. Or even caring if I might get burned because of something insiders know that I don't. On sides and totals, I'm usually on the same side of the Las Vegas sportsbooks, so if I lose because of it, so do they.

Other people will get a hold of that information. And if it has any validity, they'll make their bets and they'll move the lines. And then I'll try to always bet the best available number in the world. And that's how I'll earn my profits.

Biggest issue for me is going to be how it effect the market size. Will there be less action because people are worried about players having to sit out at the last minute? Will there be more action on each game, because there are so many fewer on the board? In general I do best on the smallest props in the biggest market, eg first quarter team total when Alabama plays LSU. Covid has got us away from that stuff, as there is less excitement around sports, so even with NBA and NHL playoffs and football, the books are doing a smaller handle than usual. But they have adjusted to offering Asian baseball, esports, Aussie rules football, National Rugby League, etc. With those sports, the American and Nevada sportsbooks are not shaping their odds based on a high volume of action, which means there should be some edges to be found.
olga909
olga909
Joined: Sep 29, 2020
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 9
October 20th, 2020 at 5:01:33 AM permalink
If people will not wear masks - we will never stop this disease.

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