shadymilkman73
shadymilkman73
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February 15th, 2020 at 12:14:08 AM permalink
I was able to find a book offering fixed -105 on all sports bets with spread along with 10% off total loss on the week. After consideration of juice it’s yielding 5.5% back on loss if I were to make 1 bet a week. Winning the bet = 1 to 1 and losing = -.945. My question is what is the best way to utilize this positive EV. Make exactly 1 bet per week? Or fire away as many bets as possible?

Thank you for your inputs
michael99000
michael99000
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February 15th, 2020 at 12:37:34 AM permalink
Quote: shadymilkman73

I was able to find a book offering fixed -105 on all sports bets with spread along with 10% off total loss on the week. After consideration of juice it’s yielding 5.5% back on loss if I were to make 1 bet a week. Winning the bet = 1 to 1 and losing = -.945. My question is what is the best way to utilize this positive EV. Make exactly 1 bet per week? Or fire away as many bets as possible?

Thank you for your inputs



Do you think they are going to keep giving that 10% on losses back if you make one bet per week?

Basically that works out to them paying the vig instead of you. It wouldn’t last long
shadymilkman73
shadymilkman73
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February 15th, 2020 at 12:40:01 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Do you think they are going to keep giving that 10% on losses back if you make one bet per week?

Basically that works out to them paying the vig instead of you. It wouldn’t last long



They have been issuing the cashback for almost 1 year now. Granted I am making 1 bet per day at this point. Not sure if they will withdraw if I switch to 1 bet per week.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Chuckleberry
February 15th, 2020 at 3:34:26 AM permalink
Quote: shadymilkman73

They have been issuing the cashback for almost 1 year now. Granted I am making 1 bet per day at this point. Not sure if they will withdraw if I switch to 1 bet per week.


I had a reply that I must have deleted before I posted it (so this one won't be as detailed).

An EV of about + 2.9% @ -105.

If you are allowed to, then Money Line (ML) could be more value:

An EV of about + 4.7% @ +200
An EV of about +6.5% @ +500
An EV of +7.25% @ +900

Note: For the ML bets, it is assumed that the theoretical RTP is about 97.5% (before taking the cashback into consideration).

Quote: shadymilkman73

(snip) Make exactly 1 bet per week? Or fire away as many bets as possible?(snip)


The above figures are based on 1 bet per week.

---
Grammar and spelling not checked thoroughly (too tired).
shadymilkman73
shadymilkman73
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February 15th, 2020 at 7:12:48 AM permalink
Is this scenario taking ML dog?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 15th, 2020 at 12:46:37 PM permalink
Quote: shadymilkman73

Is this scenario taking ML dog?


Yes, the dog at ML would be best for increasing the EV, if you can get the cashback for it.

Also, the EV figures I gave in my previous reply are based on the "Win to loss (after cashback)" (see scenario below)

Scenario: if you had $100 on a team @ +200, your EV would be about 4.7% of $90/ the "potential loss (after cashback)", so the EV would be $4.25 in this scenario.

Note: if you prefer to work out the EV in terms of your initial bet, instead of "potential loss (after cashback)", then you can just multiply all the EV figures in my previous post by about 90%.

----
Important:

I only took EV into consideration for my previous reply and above, so if your goal is to "maximise growth" rather than to "maximise EV", then it would be better if you back the teams "close to even money" or take the -105 ATS, instead of backing the dog at ML.

Note: there is negative value backing a team at ML, if the odds for that team is about -334, or smaller.

Also note: my replies assumed that the ML RTP was close to 97.5% (if it is different, then the figures I provided would be out).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 15, 2020
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