Parlay odds surprise

I ran into a fan, while I was betting props yesterday. He showed me the following parlay ticket and asked how they derived the win.



In case you can't see the image, the bet was for $300 and it needed a +195 and four -110 legs to win. It did win and paid a win of $9435 (to collect $9735). He said that this parlay calculator at Vegas Insider came up with a win of $11,455.73. I put in the numbers and agree. My own parlay calculator comes up with the same number.

The formula to arrive at that number is $300 * (2.95 * (21/11)⁴ - 1) = $11,755.73.

So, why did the Wynn pay $9435 only?

After dividing the Wynn win *ahem* by 2.95, we get $3,300. Dividing that by the bet amount we get 11. I then checked our own sportsbook survey and see Wynn pays 10 to 1 on a four-team parlay (or 11 for one).

So what is clearly going on here is they are going to the parlay table for the four -110 bets.

I previously thought and have said many times that as long as there was one leg in a parlay that wasn't -110, then it forced the type of calculation I did above and is seen at both the calculators linked to.

So, I was evidently wrong.

I guess my question is does this come as a surprise to anybody? Does every book go to the parlay table for as many -110 legs are in the parlay and use the conventional formula for the rest of it? Is what I'm writing about common knowledge?

I welcome all thoughts.

The question for the poll is did you know that parlays are calculated this way?

My understanding is also that parlay pay tables are used only if all bets are at -110. I would have calculated the payout exactly as you did. $11.755.73.

The payout made was obviously to the Wynns *big* advantage. The edge on a -110 game is 1/22 = 4.5%, but using the 10 to 1 pay table the edge on each -110 game becomes 1 - (11/16)^.25 = 8.9%. Which is why standard parlays are horrible bets, except 2 and 3 teamers.

Quote: Wizard

So, why did the Wynn pay $9735 only?

William Hill would pay that same amount.
(Nevada - mobile app)
I noticed this back in summer of 2016 and figured all the parlay online calculators were not using actual books calculating methods, whatever that is.

A great question to ask the NGC or look up the written rules (I doubt any exist).
Of course, they (NGC, imo) are 100% in agreement with the sportsbooks here in Nevada.

No, I didn't. However, after seeing this, I went to the William Hill website (yes, I am aware that Wynn/Encore is not William Hill, but I couldn't find detailed rules for Wynn anywhere, although one page of rules throws a 404), and at WH sportsbooks, the rule is, calculate what the result of the spread bets would be on the parlay card first, then multiply by the actual money line bet values.

Quote: Wizard

I previously thought and have said many times that as long as there was one leg in a parlay that wasn't -110, then it forced the type of calculation I did above and is seen at both the calculators linked to.

So, I was evidently wrong.

maybe you are right and they are wrong.

The books can say anything they want (in how they figure a winning parlay payoff)
regardless if it is true or not.

You can disagree with the way they figured it out, but the payout amount was clearly printed unambiguously on the ticket. I am assuming that exact information would have been available to the bettor before he finalized the bet? As a concept, I steadfastly agree with the Wizard's calculations. Caveat emptor rules the day.

Quote: SOOPOO

I am assuming that exact information would have been available to the bettor before he finalized the bet?

no, in Nevada, I have never seen that.
after one gives the ticket writer your money, then you get the ticket
and only right then (do not walk away until you LOVE the ticket and all on it is cool to you)
can you say you disagree with something and instantly get on their sh*t list.

next in line

To catch up, I agree the ticket holder should have objected at the window when making the bet if he didn't like win amount. I doubt Gaming has anything in writing about how parlay odds are to be calculated. My objective is not to embarrass anybody but to just know what is going on.

I've been warning players against going off parlay table odds for years, except for the 3-teamer, if it pays 6 to 1. I'll now have to amend that advice to not even mixing in any number of -110 legs except one or three. Just trying to do my job at dispensing gambling advice.

Quote: Wizard

I doubt Gaming has anything in writing about how parlay odds are to be calculated.

exactly.
That leads to the obvious question.
Why would the NGC have anything in writing on exactly how the parlays are to be paid?
you MUST be happy with your given ticket once they give it to you or 'too bad, so sad'

Quote: 7craps

exactly.
That leads to the obvious question.
Why would the NGC have anything in writing on exactly how the parlays are to be paid?
you MUST be happy with your given ticket once they give it to you or 'too bad, so sad'

I agree. There is usually a sign saying to check your tickets before leaving, which I respect. A good writer will often the writer will verbally recommend it. I am not even saying the Wynn is in the wrong here. I just want to know truthful information.

I've been a professional sports handicapper since 1979. My question is, "Why would anyone (without the aid of serious psychedelics) play a parlay like that?"

I wouldn't have bothered to say anything, but I am really, really surprised that there was no comment regarding how stupid this is. If you want to donate money to sports books, at least legally adopt them and claim them as a dependent on your income taxes.

Quote: redietz

I've been a professional sports handicapper since 1979. My question is, "Why would anyone (without the aid of serious psychedelics) play a parlay like that?"

I wouldn't have bothered to say anything, but I am really, really surprised that there was no comment regarding how stupid this is. If you want to donate money to sports books, at least legally adopt them and claim them as a dependent on your income taxes.

Hang on while I review all the picks of yours that you posted for us to analyze prior to the games...

Oh wait, you never did that.

I’ll just continue reading that list of reputable web sites your 20 years of winning picks are documented at.

Quote: 7craps

no, in Nevada, I have never seen that.
after one gives the ticket writer your money, then you get the ticket
and only right then (do not walk away until you LOVE the ticket and all on it is cool to you)
can you say you disagree with something and instantly get on their sh*t list.

next in line

At the Borgata , your wager comes up on a screen prior to the ticket agent confirming it. You have to read that screen and approve of all the figures prior to the ticket being printed.

I have no idea what the above has to do with the intelligence of betting parlays unless one of two sets of criteria apply, but okay.

From roughly 1980 to 1992 I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" The annual publication by former Seattle Times reporter Mike McCusker was also referred to as The McCusker Report. McCusker himself was the subject of a San Fran Chronicle piece circa 1990. For roughly a dozen years after that, my plays were featured in Marc Lawrence's Playbook newsletter, which was sold nationally on newsstands. And for the last 30 years, my top two plays each week have been featured in the invitation-only Wise Guys Contest (www.playbook.com//Vegas-Wise-Guys/). At a ripe young age, I was also vetted by Rick Hall and appeared in Hall Publishing's 1984 Who's Who in Sports Gambling. And Billy Walters hired me in 2002.

Other than that, yeah, no credentials whatsoever.

Quote: redietz

From roughly 1980 to 1992 I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" T...

Hijacking, three-day suspension.

That's evil. Now I might mess with Horseshoe Hammond's sports betting kiosk to possibly see if CET in Indiana does it the same way.

Update: I totally forgot to do this tonight and had a very frustrating gambling session instead.

Yes, most books that I’m aware of use the parlay card odds to calculate the overall odds of a multi leg parlay. Some other sites still use the better, international odds, parlay card. See this link for the differences on Vegas and Global book: https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

In the interests of research, I made four similar parlay bets to the Wynn one, to see what other sports books were doing. Here they are:


$537.60 = $10*4.48*12


$372 = $10*3.1*12


$336.60 = $10*2.8*12


$240 = $10 * 2 * 12

As you can see ALL of them went by the parlay table, which in every case here paid 11 to 1 (or 12 for 1). If the calculation method were used, (21/11)^4 = 13.2833 for 1 = 12.2833 to 1. So the player is getting significantly shortchanged off the parlay table. There should be more of an outcry against them.

So the new strategy is to not parlay more than 3 games at -110. Which is not so hard to do since many games are at -115 or -105

Quote: Ace2

So the new strategy is to not parlay more than 3 games at -110. Which is not so hard to do since many games are at -115 or -105

I also wouldn't parlay two. Using the calculation, it would pay (21/11)^2 = 2.6446 to 1. The standard table win is 2.6 flat. Assuming a 50% chance at each leg, the house return via the calculation is 91.12%.

Off the table it's 90%.

May not seem like much, but that's losing 1.12% in EV. A sharp bettor should fight for every 0.1%, even 0.01%.

The only safe number of -110 legs to parlay are 0, 1, and 3.

I forgot to post my Fremont (Body Gaming) parlay. The $10 bet had four -110 legs and one +210, to pay $341.

$341=$10*3.1*11.

So they are going off the parlay card for the four -110 legs too.

I set the materiality level at about 0.25%, and that’s if you’re a high $, high volume bettor.

For instance, the Don’t Pass line (1.36%) has an edge about 0.05 % less than the pass Pass line (1.41%). I like value but I play Pass 95% of the time just because I think it’s more fun. On an average weekend of play (estimate 400 pass line bets x $15) the 0.05 % will cost me 3 dollars. Not even worth thinking about IMO

Quote: tringlomane

That's evil. Now I might mess with Horseshoe Hammond's sports betting kiosk to possibly see if CET in Indiana does it the same way.

Update: I totally forgot to do this tonight and had a very frustrating gambling session instead.

Frustrating session? Hahaha, boy was I wrong. Tonight was my worst session in YEARS for AP! And I had two $50 dollar bills in my wallet since my luckiest trip to Vegas in Sept. 2017 for 29 months. I lost them in various "advantage plays" tonight. Over $240 total.

But I remembered the Horseshoe Hammond kiosk last night.



$10 x (2.1/1.1)^7 = $924.24 "to collect" as shown in the bottom of the pic. So no parlay table here...

i do this for a living and yes las vegas casinos have 'paytable' parlays for sides and totals. so if 4 legs are -110 and basketball sides or toals then its the paytable for a 4 leg parlay +1000 and since the 5th leg is simply a monely line then thats treated as true odds. in this case its +1000 or 11 in decimals and the +195 or 2.95 in decimals. multiply the two yields 32.45 odds. now multiply that by the bet and you end up at 9735. seems to be only a vegas casino thing. i think all online sportsbooks dont have parlay paytables.