Super Bowl LIV
***: I plan to bet about $300 in total on the 49ers, but I will wait and see what the player injuries are closer to game day, before I commit myself to a bigger bet.
^^^: $1.60 each leg (or about -167 per leg).
Quote: EdCollinsIs this the best thread to talk about the prop bets... or should we start another one?
I think we should start another one. If none else does, I'll try to get some prop sheets and post pictures of them later today.
Quote: DRichI always lean to the under in the Super bowl because the public enjoys betting the over and very few of them will bet the under.
Podcast last night said the over is being taken about 20:1 vs the under this year. Shootout will skin the bookies.
Quote: WizardI think we should start another one. If none else does, I'll try to get some prop sheets and post pictures of them later today.
Kindly requesting South Point 😁
Try this address:Quote: JohnzimboKindly requesting South Point 😁
https://www.vsin.com/odds/super-bowl-prop-bets/
Quote: AZDuffmanPodcast last night said the over is being taken about 20:1 vs the under this year. Shootout will skin the bookies.
I don't understand this. Why didn't they start line at around 57 to get equivalent money on both sides?
Quote: SOOPOOI don't understand this. Why didn't they start line at around 57 to get equivalent money on both sides?
If they started at 57, maybe the action would be lopsided for the under. The books need to attract bettors, but it also helps when the loser's action is bigger than the winner's. 7 or 8 touchdowns in a game with two of the top 10 defenses is a tall order.
Quote: SOOPOOI don't understand this. Why didn't they start line at around 57 to get equivalent money on both sides?
Somebody has to throw out the first number and let the world bet into it. I think the number they put out was a pretty good one and don't fault them for it. Still don't get why it moved so much.
Quote: WizardSomebody has to throw out the first number and let the world bet into it. I think the number they put out was a pretty good one and don't fault them for it. Still don't get why it moved so much.
You are not a 'regular fan' then. The perception is that KC will score on every possession when they have Mahomes/Watkins/Hill/Kelce all healthy, like they do now. They watched the last two games. KC has a great O, and an average D. Casual fans overestimate the 'strength' of an O, and discount the value of a D.
The number they put out may have been a good one for someone who is cold and calculating and analytic like you are, but you are not the average bettor. My number would have gotten a more even distribution of bets.
If Tiger Woods is scheduled to have a match with Xander Schauffle, I can show you all the data in the world that it is an even match up. You don't think the odds start at 2-1 in favor of Tiger?
Each square costs $1. The score is noted at the end of each quarter and the winner of each quarter gets 25% of the total take. Is there some ideal number of squares to buy?
Quote: TigerWuIs there a strategy for the Superbowl Squares game under the following conditions:
Each square costs $1. The score is noted at the end of each quarter and the winner of each quarter gets 25% of the total take. Is there some ideal number of squares to buy?
No. Unless your guy is skimming something off the top, the squares are no house edge/no player advantage. EV for 1 square is zero. EV for 6 squares is zero. Etc....
Quote: TigerWuIs there a strategy for the Superbowl Squares game under the following conditions:
Each square costs $1. The score is noted at the end of each quarter and the winner of each quarter gets 25% of the total take. Is there some ideal number of squares to buy?
51?
Not sure what it is in the US but betfair now has 52.5. (1hr before kick off) ( https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/american-football/market/1.167654034 )Quote: unJon...total still has upward pressure on it. Up to 54.5 in some places...
Quote: charliepatrickNot sure what it is in the US but betfair now has 52.5. (1hr before kick off) ( https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/american-football/market/1.167654034 )
Yeah it started falling Friday. 53 is what I’m seeing now.
I managed to get U54.5, but I had to take it as a double with the Chiefs -1.0 @ $3.80.
At the time that I had the bet, the total was 54 (if I wanted to have a normal/single bet on the total).
***: correct at the time of this post
I was rooting for you!
I drove out there Saturday, from Southern California, to do just that... bet on the Under. So I also bet the Under, also at 54. I also thought there was some value there, as had been discussed here earlier. 54 points is a bunch of points for an NFL game, especially with a team like San Francisco that is likely to take a lot of time off the clock, with their run game.Quote: DRichI bet under 54 on Sunday morning in Vegas.
I was hoping to find 54.5, but at the four or five different casinos I went to, it was not to be... 54 everywhere.
Quote: EdCollinsI drove out there Saturday, from Southern California, to do just that... bet on the Under. So I also bet the Under, also at 54. I also thought there was some value there, as had been discussed here earlier. 54 points is a bunch of points for an NFL game, especially with a team like San Francisco that is likely to take a lot of time off the clock, with their run game.
I was hoping to find 54.5, but at the four or five different casinos I went to, it was not to be... 54 everywhere.
Congrats on the wins DRich and Ed!
I don't know about Mahomes getting the MVP though. His two interceptions really put KC in the hole. If it wasn't for the KC defense playing lights out, and Garoppolo being Garoppolo in crunch time, they would have lost the game badly.
I didn't watch most of the halftime show, so I don't know what I missed, but here are the ones that I remember off the top of my head. Please feel free to add and comment:
Memorable and Good: MC Hammer Cheetos, Hyundai Smaht Pahk
Meh: Planter's Baby Mr. Peanut; Google Old Dude, The guy with the stained shirt in a Bud/Tide ad; Big Snickers hole;
Memorable because it was bad: Hyundai Genesis ad with some wannabe celebrities; Hard Rock hot mess
I don't remember the others, but Mrs. Carumba commented that she didn't like the "heavy" ones.
It was interesting to me how similar the Trump and Bloomberg ads were.
Yeah, I think if there is no clear-cut outstanding player, they just give the MVP to the winning QB by default. I could have seen it going to Williams instead with his 104 Rushing, 29 Receiving, & 2 TD's.Quote: AyecarumbaI don't know about Mahomes getting the MVP though. His two interceptions really put KC in the hole. If it wasn't for the KC defense playing lights out, and Garoppolo being Garoppolo in crunch time, they would have lost the game badly.
I would have thought this high hold was more about the under hitting with the public so very weighted to the over (even with a lot of Sunday money hitting the under).Quote: DRichNevada sports books won 12.1% on the Super Bowl. I believe that is the second highest amount ever held. It is amazing how much money people throw away on parlays and prop bets with high holds. If everyone was just betting the sides and totals the holds would be close to 2.6%.
Quote: unJonI would have thought this high hold was more about the under hitting with the public so very weighted to the over (even with a lot of Sunday money hitting the under).
You may be right on this game specifically, I wish they would break down how much was bet on the sides, total, parlays, and prop bets.
Last years game between the Patriots and the Rams was also bet heavily on the over and the score was 13 to 3. That game held 7.4%
The game two years ago between Patriots and Philadelphia only held 0.7% but that game did go over.
Quote: DRichNevada sports books won 12.1% on the Super Bowl. I believe that is the second highest amount ever held. It is amazing how much money people throw away on parlays and prop bets with high holds. If everyone was just betting the sides and totals the holds would be close to 2.6%.
I'm curious how much of the action represented local regional support for a San Francisco cover, or moneyline win. Do they report Reno sportsbook holds separately?
Quote: AyecarumbaI'm curious how much of the action represented local regional support for a San Francisco cover, or moneyline win. Do they report Reno sportsbook holds separately?
Not that I am aware of. I think they only publish the consolidated state of Nevada numbers.
https://www.casino.org/news/nevada-sportsbooks-won-super-bowl-with-near-record-handle-hold/ gives the numbers quoted earlier but also says New Jersey books lost and mentions the bad beat.
Quote:Nevada’s Super Bowl success stands in stark contrast to New Jersey’s futility. The Garden State’s handle for the NFL’s biggest game was $54.28 million, and sportsbooks there lost $4.28 million, marking the second straight year they bled cash on the Super Bowl.
...
Prior to the game, the over/under on rushing yards for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback and eventual Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes was as high as 36.5 yards before settling at 32.5 to 33.5. In dollar terms, that was the most bet prop across the country.
Late in the game, Mahomes had 44 yards rushing. But with the Chiefs in possession of the ball and the 49ers out of timeouts, the quarterback kneeled down to run out the clock on three consecutive snaps, trimming a combined 15 yards off his rushing total while creating an infamous “bad beat” for gamblers and a win for the books.
