unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Rigondeaux
October 30th, 2019 at 11:10:59 AM permalink
I know someone that said he used to bet seven game series. He would always bet the home team and martingale until he was plus one unit. He claimed he had never lost using this system. I didn’t think much about it at the time. Just another seven step martingale with a high HA, if you have the stomach for it.

Today I read that of the more than 1,400 seven-game playoff series in NHL, MLB and NBA, the current World Series is the first ever to have the road team win each of the first six games.

I wonder if some poor gamblers are out there sweating bullets with a humongous martingale bet on the Astros.

Warms the heart almost.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
billryan
billryan
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October 30th, 2019 at 11:26:05 AM permalink
The chances that a seven game series ends up with the road team winning each game have to be astronomical.
Then again, anyone who bet on the Nats back when they were a dozen games under .500 will be very well rewarded.
michael99000
michael99000
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unJon
October 30th, 2019 at 12:44:43 PM permalink
This is a popular Marty system that is undefeated all time.

If someone were doing it for this World Series, with the goal being to profit $100 for the series , here’s where they’d be at.

The home team moneyline , using the closing lines at vegasinsider, were:

Game 1 -200
Game 2 -175
Game 3 +140
Game 4 -105
Game 5 +200
Game 6 -170

Your balance after each game. If you bet to win what you were down so far plus the $100 you wanted to profit...

-200 after game 1
-725 after game 2
-1315 after game 3
-2800 after game 4
-4250 after game 5
-11,645 after game 6

Game 7 tonight you’re betting Houston , risking $15,855 to win $11,745

You’ll either end up Plus $100, or Minus $27,600
Wizard
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Wizard
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AxelWolf
October 30th, 2019 at 5:28:44 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I wonder if some poor gamblers are out there sweating bullets with a humongous martingale bet on the Astros.



I must confess I take perverse pleasure in watching Martingale players lose. Saw them all the time at multi-player blackjack tables online.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
billryan
billryan
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October 30th, 2019 at 7:18:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I must confess I take perverse pleasure in watching Martingale players lose. Saw them all the time at multi-player blackjack tables online.



There are other players at the table? I never notice.
unJon
unJon
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October 30th, 2019 at 7:29:37 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

This is a popular Marty system that is undefeated all time.

If someone were doing it for this World Series, with the goal being to profit $100 for the series , here’s where they’d be at.

The home team moneyline , using the closing lines at vegasinsider, were:

Game 1 -200
Game 2 -175
Game 3 +140
Game 4 -105
Game 5 +200
Game 6 -170

Your balance after each game. If you bet to win what you were down so far plus the $100 you wanted to profit...

-200 after game 1
-725 after game 2
-1315 after game 3
-2800 after game 4
-4250 after game 5
-11,645 after game 6

Game 7 tonight you’re betting Houston , risking $15,855 to win $11,745

You’ll either end up Plus $100, or Minus $27,600


Amazing. Thanks for laying it out. What a sweat for $100.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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October 31st, 2019 at 5:29:36 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I know someone that said he used to bet seven game series. He would always bet the home team and martingale until he was plus one unit. He claimed he had never lost using this system. I didn’t think much about it at the time. Just another seven step martingale with a high HA, if you have the stomach for it.



It probably made sense, though like any Marty, works until it doesn't.

The pass I give is sports teams are not a ball or dice, they do have memories and games are not random. Teams make adjustments and take pride in winning at home.

On MLB post-season IMHO you are better using the method of bet the favorite for the series and bet the dog for the game. Structured right it should usually work except that lines could flip fav and dog by game 7 even if they did not this time.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 31st, 2019 at 6:26:03 AM permalink
Let me ask myself the following question -- What is the probability of the visiting team winning every game in the series we just had. The following table shows the VegasInsider odds:

Date Visiting Home ML Visiting ML Home Fair Visiting Fair prob
22-Oct Wash Hou 180 -200 190 34.48%
23-Oct Wash Hou 160 -175 167.5 37.38%
25-Oct Hou Wash -150 140 -145 59.18%
26-Oct Hou Wash -105 -105 100 50.00%
27-Oct Hou Wash -230 200 -215 68.25%
29-Oct Wash Hou 155 -170 162.5 38.10%
30-Oct Wash Hou 130 -140 135 42.55%

Source: https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/scoreboard/scores.cfm/game_date/10-22-2019

Taking the product of all the fair probabilities, the answer to the question is 1 in 237.

At the Vegas Insider lines, somebody Martingaling the home team to win $100 would have lost $28,081.06.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
7craps
7craps
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October 31st, 2019 at 9:12:33 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

At the Vegas Insider lines, somebody Martingaling the home team to win $100 would have lost $28,081.06.

Mattress Mack after losing $11M on Astros' World Series loss: 'I would do this again tomorrow'

https://sports.yahoo.com/mattress-mack-astros-world-series-bets-062939791.html

a $million to some means NOTHING

IF he had won (Astros win world series) he would have lost more $$$... says the article
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Joeman
Joeman
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October 31st, 2019 at 10:56:27 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

Mattress Mack after losing $11M on Astros' World Series loss: 'I would do this again tomorrow'

https://sports.yahoo.com/mattress-mack-astros-world-series-bets-062939791.html

a $million to some means NOTHING

IF he had won (Astros win world series) he would have lost more $$$... says the article

His bet was to hedge against his offer to refund money to his customers had the Astros won. No matter who won the series, he's out roughly the same $11M. He simply paid $11M for marketing/advertising. Whether he got his money's worth, who knows? He evidently thinks he did.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"

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