Poll

1 vote (100%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)

1 member has voted

noitev
noitev
Joined: Jun 22, 2017
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 4
October 17th, 2019 at 1:25:46 AM permalink
So I'm participating in a promo where at the beginning of the season, I made a 2,000 dollar bet on the cowboys to win the SB. in addition to that bet, I get 10% (200 dollars) each regular season game they win in bonus cash (just a 1x playthrough, all money is kept for winning bets.) I got them at +2600 and although they lost their past 3 games, I can still do the early cashout for 1800 back. I've already gotten 600 from the promo, but if they lose this next game, I can only assume their odds to win the superbowl go way down since they're playing the eagles who are 3-3 as well. so my question for you is, whether I sell or not, and also, What do you think the cowboy's superbowl odds will be if they lose next week. Also do you know anyway to sell my cowboys odds to someone online? thanks.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 5927
Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
October 17th, 2019 at 4:13:44 AM permalink
Quote: noitev

So I'm participating in a promo where at the beginning of the season, I made a 2,000 dollar bet on the cowboys to win the SB. in addition to that bet, I get 10% (200 dollars) each regular season game they win in bonus cash (just a 1x playthrough, all money is kept for winning bets.) I got them at +2600 and although they lost their past 3 games, I can still do the early cashout for 1800 back. I've already gotten 600 from the promo, but if they lose this next game, I can only assume their odds to win the superbowl go way down since they're playing the eagles who are 3-3 as well. so my question for you is, whether I sell or not, and also, What do you think the cowboy's superbowl odds will be if they lose next week. Also do you know anyway to sell my cowboys odds to someone online? thanks.



If they lose to Eagles they still have 9 more games probably with an expected 5 wins. So an expected $1000. The $2000 bet at 26-1 after a loss to the Eagles would be worth probably around $1000, but after a win around $3000. The winner of that game would be odds on favorite to win division. With a loss Cowboys odds 55-1? I think I keep the bet going. Eagles not that great this year. Two mediocre teams. Giants and Redskins wish they were mediocre.
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 92
  • Posts: 9577
October 17th, 2019 at 12:49:17 PM permalink
Quote: noitev

So I'm participating in a promo where at the beginning of the season, I made a 2,000 dollar bet on the cowboys to win the SB. in addition to that bet, I get 10% (200 dollars) each regular season game they win in bonus cash (just a 1x playthrough, all money is kept for winning bets.) I got them at +2600 and although they lost their past 3 games, I can still do the early cashout for 1800 back. I've already gotten 600 from the promo, but if they lose this next game, I can only assume their odds to win the superbowl go way down since they're playing the eagles who are 3-3 as well. so my question for you is, whether I sell or not, and also, What do you think the cowboy's superbowl odds will be if they lose next week. Also do you know anyway to sell my cowboys odds to someone online? thanks.



I am mad that I didn't do the promo. I didn't have 2k laying around, but could have done 1k. Should have just done that. Wanted to do 2k on Patriots. Would have already had most of the money back.

If it were me I would sell if you can get 1800 back. They dont look good and could see them missing the playoffs.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 5927
October 17th, 2019 at 3:59:34 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I am mad that I didn't do the promo. I didn't have 2k laying around, but could have done 1k. Should have just done that. Wanted to do 2k on Patriots. Would have already had most of the money back.

If it were me I would sell if you can get 1800 back. They dont look good and could see them missing the playoffs.



You know that isn't the correct way to look at it. If you look at Cowboys schedule you try and guess the average number of wins from here on out. Gotta be between 5 and 6. Let's be conservative and say 5. So he gets $1000 for those 5 wins. So the $1800 is really $1800 instead of $1000 and a chance for $52000 if the Cowboys somehow win the Super Bowl. So the question is..... boiled down..... Would you bet $800 on the Cowboys TODAY to win $52000 if they win the super Bowl? That's around 65-1. If you think the Cowboys have less than a 1 in 65 chance of winning the Super Bowl, take the $1800. If you think it is more likely than 1 in 65 they will win the Super Bowl, leave the bet active. Cowboys today are 22-1 on Bovada. So it is an EASY decision to keep the bet active, if EV is your only consideration.
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 3289
October 17th, 2019 at 4:08:15 PM permalink
i would keep the bet. cashing out or selling it will incur an EV cost. unless it's life changing money why pay it?

by the way, what was the sportsbook for the promo?
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 92
  • Posts: 9577
October 17th, 2019 at 4:23:03 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

i would keep the bet. cashing out or selling it will incur an EV cost. unless it's life changing money why pay it?

by the way, what was the sportsbook for the promo?



it is an online PA book
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 17084
October 17th, 2019 at 4:46:30 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

it is an online PA book

I didn't know you could buy out when I looked at this. I'm not sure how that would affect the overall EV of the promotion(?)

The problem was, you couldn't just go to PA, bet it, and wait for the results. From what I understand, each game you won you had to wager the bonus amount given prior to the next game. That meant somebody would have to put in bets(assuming their team won) from PA each week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You should have called me immediately and we would have done something together regarding this promotion. I might have been able to scrape up a few thousand or whatever was needed to make this worthwhile. Having to make the bets each week was a real inconvenience for anyone not living there.

P.S. I know you mentioned this promo here at the beginning, but I just assumed they were giving away Pepsi or something =🍕🍔🍟🌭🍿🥨
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 92
  • Posts: 9577
October 17th, 2019 at 6:13:49 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I didn't know you could buy out when I looked at this. I'm not sure how that would affect the overall EV of the promotion(?)

The problem was, you couldn't just go to PA, bet it, and wait for the results. From what I understand, each game you won you had to wager the bonus amount given prior to the next game. That meant somebody would have to put in bets(assuming their team won) from PA each week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You should have called me immediately and we would have done something together regarding this promotion. I might have been able to scrape up a few thousand or whatever was needed to make this worthwhile. Having to make the bets each week was a real inconvenience for anyone not living there.

P.S. I know you mentioned this promo here at the beginning, but I just assumed they were giving away Pepsi or something =🍕🍔🍟🌭🍿🥨



yeah we talked about it briefly. Honestly I have been very overwhelmed with business and some other things that I just lost track of time. I will be so pissed if the patriots make it to the superbowl. That who I would have done since it was basically a guarantee for them to win 10 games. SO it would have been a free roll on a 20k superbowl wager. sighhhh.. pisses me off just thinking about it.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
noitev
noitev
Joined: Jun 22, 2017
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 4
October 17th, 2019 at 10:30:33 PM permalink
Yeah, me and my bud did cowboys pats.

  • Jump to: