Spring Fling/WOV picks game free roll

Quote: PokerGrinder

This!

Ugh I agree with Axel, I feel gross now.

Quote: GWAE

Even with the terrible patriots bet we have locked in a win for week 2. currently sitting at $727.81 with $670 wagered. There are still $180 in wagers outstanding. Stale lines did not impact any picks in the first slate of games.

Quote: Joeman

Cool freeroll, GWAE! I'm following though I doubt I will be able to make it out to the Spring Fling.

I have noticed that for two weeks in a row now, the most lopsided games were both stinkers: 17 units on the Broncos Week 1 (which you fortunately didn't get booked), and 10 units on the Dolphins Week 2. I'm no handicapper, but I sense a trend here... ;)

Quote: GWAE

Incase no one cared to look at my other thread. I am using the aggregate bets to make actual wagers. It is a free roll for dinner at the spring fling. Odds are I will go busto sooner than later. If I end the season with a profit I am going to add funds to a playoff picks game. I can not remember what we had last year but I am going to add to the pot. Only those that are in the season long picks game will be eligible for my added playoffs bonus that will be determined based on the final profit. If I go busto then there is no bonus. I will be betting current lines but using picks on stale lines so it will probably end poorly but you never know and besides it is a free roll for everyone so who cares. But for what it is worth. In week 1 there was only 1 game that was affected by the line difference and current wager was on the right side of it. I cant remember which one it was but I think it was the chargers where everyone had them at -6 but current line was -5.5.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/33614-spring-fling-wov-picks-game-free-roll/4/#post739812

Quote: PokerGrinder

This!

Ugh I agree with Axel, I feel gross now.

Quote: AxelWolf

we'll go have a couple of cupcakes and raid your parents candy store, you'll feel much better.🎂🎂🎂🎂

Quote: gordonm888

In Week 2. I picked the Patriots as my confidence pick - so I did my part to diminish the amount you wagered on the Dolphins.

Quote: PokerGrinder

Popcorn store thank you very much!

Quote: GWAE

Another decent week. Second week in a row that we benefited from stale lines. We would have lost the Bears game on the picks lines but my line was 2 so we had a push. Year to date we are +5 units on stale lines.

Here is a chart for the season so far.

Week	Record	Units +/-	Wagered	P&L
Week 1	10-3-1	+38	$480.00	+$340.91
Week 2	8-5-1	+21	$650.00	+$167.38
Overall	18-8-2	+59	$1130.00	+$508.29

Quote: unJon

Quote: GWAE

Another decent week. Second week in a row that we benefited from stale lines. We would have lost the Bears game on the picks lines but my line was 2 so we had a push. Year to date we are +5 units on stale lines.

Here is a chart for the season so far.

Week	Record	Units +/-	Wagered	P&L
Week 1	10-3-1	+38	$480.00	+$340.91
Week 2	8-5-1	+21	$650.00	+$167.38
Overall	18-8-2	+59	$1130.00	+$508.29

Just quit now.

Quote: unJon

Rams were -3 in pick em game. Currently -3.5. I would not have you make the bet unless you find it at -3.

Quote: GWAE

Whelp we better get some come backs or game might be over. May be unlikely since it's all the favorites winning.

Quote: GWAE

It turned out decent. Now i have to decide what to do with the Rams game tonight. I am leaning towards skipping it. A lot of people took them at -3.0. Current line is -3.5, not only that it is -125. Buying the .5 makes it -155. Considering just taking the money line at -185 but maybe that defeats the purpose of this game?

Quote: beachbumbabs

Maybe I'm missing your point, but 17-1 on Rams at -3, I don't see a whole lot of difference. You're giving up the push at -3.5, which is a semi-big thing, I guess, but I would want you to bet at least a little on it.

Quote: GWAE

I am no betting expert as I am very knew to it, but I always thought -3 to -3.5 is huge difference. The other issue at hand is that the -3.5 which is worse is -125 instead of -110. If it was -3.5 -110 and I could buy the .5 and get it at -3 for -120 then I would be ok with that. Right now the afternoon games are big losers sooooooooooo we will have to see what happens.

Quote: unJon

It’s mostly -4 everywhere now and trending to -4.5.

Quote: GWAE

yep I have it at -4 now but at -110, -3.5 -120, or -3.0 -150

Quote: DRich

I am tempted to take the Browns just because of the huge consensus on the Rams. The bookies tend to be a little smarter than the public.

Quote: GWAE

The line keeps moving. I am seeing -5 now. There must be some serious money coming in on the rams. Across country and prime time. Home team seems like the smart bet here.

Quote: DRich

I just took +4.5.

How abut your Pitt Panthers yesterday? That was probably the best game of the day. I only saw the end yesterday and it was great so I went back and watched the whole game this morning. Awesome game.

Quote: GWAE

It was tremendous. I was going to post in the other thread that my lock of the day was Pit and was even taking them straight up. I got them at +305 but only for $50. I chickened out. I know people don't like hearing about wagers after the fact but whatever. They are my home team and alma mater so I bet them with my heart.
They played so well against Penn State and have beaten a ranked team each year for the last few years.

I had baseball games during the day so I almost didnt watch it. I overheard someone say it was 21-0 so I figured they would win. I then saw them down and almost just cheated and looked at the score but I decided to watch. So glad that I did

Quote: DRich

You have the Blue Hens at home this weekend. I would guess you will be favored by about 19.

Quote: GWAE

and will lose by 12. That is how we roll.

Quote: GWAE

these bastards better not go for 2.... $300 play.... stupid sports betting. I should be sleeping

ETA: Wholly hell that was close.

Quote: AxelWolf

GWAE 33% last place

LOL

Quote: Mission146

Like I said in the other thread, that game is the only one skewed. I would just disregard it completely and play as if the others are the only ones.

Quote: GWAE

I might but IMO it is not the only one skewed. By picking this game you are now not picking another game so it skews 2 games per person.

Quote: Mission146

True, but it seems like it doesn't skew the Picks that ARE made. It just suggests that a different additional Pick might have been made, but not that the other four picks would NOT have been made. I'd say the only skewed thing on other existing Picks is that some of them may have been Confidence, but now are not.

Quote: GWAE

Quote: Mission146

True, but it seems like it doesn't skew the Picks that ARE made. It just suggests that a different additional Pick might have been made, but not that the other four picks would NOT have been made. I'd say the only skewed thing on other existing Picks is that some of them may have been Confidence, but now are not.

maybe I should just bet them all as made as I have done that each week so far anyways. we were like 3-7 so not like people knew anything last week.

Quote: GWAE

Quote: Mission146

True, but it seems like it doesn't skew the Picks that ARE made. It just suggests that a different additional Pick might have been made, but not that the other four picks would NOT have been made. I'd say the only skewed thing on other existing Picks is that some of them may have been Confidence, but now are not.

maybe I should just bet them all as made as I have done that each week so far anyways. we were like 3-7 so not like people knew anything last week.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: GWAE

Quote: Mission146

True, but it seems like it doesn't skew the Picks that ARE made. It just suggests that a different additional Pick might have been made, but not that the other four picks would NOT have been made. I'd say the only skewed thing on other existing Picks is that some of them may have been Confidence, but now are not.

maybe I should just bet them all as made as I have done that each week so far anyways. we were like 3-7 so not like people knew anything last week.

"people knew anything'? Do you actually believe that the WoV consensus has some advantage over the bookies? The only possible advantage is the use of stale lines, which you won't be able to bet on, anyway.

Remember, you are kindly freerolling for us, so do what makes you feel good! I'd say bet on all the games you normally would have except the Browns game, if you want an opinion. Browns 24 49ers 21.