ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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September 4th, 2019 at 5:46:00 AM permalink
Hi,
I noticed that one of the online books i bet with has first score props for college football, and would like to know if anyone thinks there are potential AP for any of the games below:
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NM State vs Alabama (spread: ~55 and total: ~ 64)

First score a TD: -375
First score an Alabama TD: -275
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Oregon State vs Hawaii (spread: ~ 6.5 and total: ~78)

First score a TD: -375
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North Texas vs Southern Methodist (spread: ~3.5 and total ~73.5)

First score a TD: -275
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I first started looking at these types of college bets a week ago, using the "WoO - NFL prop bet calc." as a rough^^^ indicator (see link*** below)

^^^: main reason i call it a rough indicator is because these are college football props and that calc. is for NFL props.

***: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/prop-calculator/

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All comments welcome, and thanks in advance for any help.
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
September 4th, 2019 at 6:23:16 AM permalink
Using my NFL prop bet calculator in college football is ill-advised. College football has different dynamics. As an example in this case, there are much fewer field goals per game.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
September 4th, 2019 at 7:41:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

.Using my NFL prop bet calculator in college football is ill-advised...


Thanks, I thought so too (i use it as a good starting point for NFL prop bets, though).
At the moment I am just having smallish bets "for fun" bets, but I think there is a potential AP here.


I think i just found a website that may help (see links below)

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/field-goals-made-per-game?date=2019-01-08

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/offensive-touchdowns-per-game?date=2019-01-08
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 4, 2019
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
September 4th, 2019 at 8:57:14 AM permalink
I think in general, college football is more volatile in the sense that there are more fourth down conversion attempts, a lot of kickers are terrible, higher totals and bigger spreads, worse coaching decisions, etc. The game script for a college football game is harder to predict than an NFL game.

I think in the NFL on 4th and 6 from the 27 yard line in the 1Q, all teams would kick the FG (whether that is smart or not is another discussion). In college, that certainly isn't the case simply because the kickers are unreliable, many teams would elect to go for it.

Just a totally different game, and that seems to be reflected in those much higher first score TD props than an NFL game.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
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September 4th, 2019 at 6:14:31 PM permalink
Thanks, I am thinking of going through all past college games that had a closing betting total above 56, and then grouping those games further according to the spread.

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