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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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Mission146
October 9th, 2019 at 2:01:49 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

I think in the future mission should have at least a 1 hour window after lines are posted to make any corrections.

But he is in the future, how will we ever contact him? Can we send PMs to the future? He is probably wishing he could come back and bet on the Trump fauxhawk.
I am a robot.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Mission146
October 9th, 2019 at 10:17:52 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Is there really skill in this game? There is some skill, but winning is dependent on luck. I don't think there is one person who ever played that can will themselves consistently to success. Unfortunately, my skill and effort level is being materialized.


There can be skill. Since we are allowed to use lines that do not exist at the time we make our selections, there are some selections that exceed the expected 50% success rate, at least as far as EV. I always get my picks in pretty early, so my success this year is nothing more than luck, with the exception of taking advantage of the glaring error on the SF/CLE game.
michael99000
michael99000
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Mission146
October 9th, 2019 at 10:47:10 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

There can be skill. Since we are allowed to use lines that do not exist at the time we make our selections, there are some selections that exceed the expected 50% success rate, at least as far as EV. I always get my picks in pretty early, so my success this year is nothing more than luck, with the exception of taking advantage of the glaring error on the SF/CLE game.



One way to tell if skill is involved is to compare the year to year final standings and see if the same people continue to finish in the upper tier. Over a 5 or 6 year period a pattern would indicate skill. Sporadic results would indicate otherwise.
Mission146
Mission146
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prozema
October 10th, 2019 at 9:22:05 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 6 Lines are as follows:

Panthers (-2.5) @ Buccaneers (+2.5) O/U 47.5
Bengals (+11) @ Ravens (-11) O/U 48
Seahawks (-1.5) @ Browns (+1.5) O/U 46
Texans (+4.5) @ Chiefs (-4.5) O/U 55
Saints (+1) @ Jaguars (-1) O/U 43.5
Eagles (+3) @ Vikings (-3) O/U 44
Redskins (-3.5) @ Dolphins (+3.5) O/U 41
49ers (+3) @ Rams (-3) O/U 50.5
Falcons (-2.5) @ Cardinals (+2.5) O/U 51.5
Cowboys (-7) @ Jets (+7) O/U 44.5
Titans (+2) @ Broncos (-2) O/U 40.5
Steelers (+7) @ Chargers (-7) O/U 41.5
Lions (+4) @ Packers (-4) O/U 47
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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Mission146
October 10th, 2019 at 10:08:46 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

The Week 6 Lines are as follows:

Panthers (-2.5) @ Buccaneers (+2.5) O/U 47.5
Bengals (+11) @ Ravens (-11) O/U 48
Seahawks (-1.5) @ Browns (+1.5) O/U 46
Texans (+4.5) @ Chiefs (-4.5) O/U 55
Saints (+1) @ Jaguars (-1) O/U 43.5
Eagles (+3) @ Vikings (-3) O/U 44
Redskins (-3.5) @ Dolphins (+3.5) O/U 41
49ers (+3) @ Rams (-3) O/U 50.5
Falcons (-2.5) @ Cardinals (+2.5) O/U 51.5
Cowboys (-7) @ Jets (+7) O/U 44.5
Titans (+2) @ Broncos (-2) O/U 40.5
Steelers (+7) @ Chargers (-7) O/U 41.5
Lions (+4) @ Packers (-4) O/U 47


It's official, picks in. Damn I better start getting lucky. Can't even joke this year, though last year the dark side arc was fun. Just can't top it, can't just do it again.
I am a robot.
unJon
unJon
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Mission146
October 11th, 2019 at 5:28:50 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

It's official, picks in. Damn I better start getting lucky. Can't even joke this year, though last year the dark side arc was fun. Just can't top it, can't just do it again.


I drink your milkshake.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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Mission146
October 11th, 2019 at 10:42:08 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: IndyJeffrey

Quote: Joeman

Quote: Mission146



Browns (-4) @ 49ers (+4) O/U 46

Is the point spread reversed on the Browns/49ers game? Las Vegas Insider is showing the 49ers as 4 point favorites.



I agree. This should be SF -4 . That said...

. I hope Mission fixes this. It is not in the spirit of the game to take advantage of sleepy typos. At the end of the season I like to see how the group has done overall. Giving an extra 8 points crossing both 3's makes the stats at the end of the year rubbish.



Since this is a competition I will be forced to take SF +4 if it stays that way. 70% it wins.



Ed has said before, he doesn't care what the + or - value is. He plugs in the line for all teams for that week, then when our picks are posted, he just inputs the teams, not the spread. Same with over/under.

That said, I'm waiting for Mission to fix these lines before I put in a set of picks. I would appreciate the right to stay in the ONM Friday pick pool if the picks don't get fixed fast enough, and I would hope that's universal, but I guess ONM would have a say in that, too.

Sorry for a late response, but the answer from me is no. Simply because it's not the first pick which counts, but the last pick which counts. Anyone could have submitted a set of picks, then if there was a problem, still get them in for the late portion of the contest.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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Mission146
October 11th, 2019 at 11:06:32 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

There can be skill. Since we are allowed to use lines that do not exist at the time we make our selections, there are some selections that exceed the expected 50% success rate, at least as far as EV. I always get my picks in pretty early, so my success this year is nothing more than luck, with the exception of taking advantage of the glaring error on the SF/CLE game.

There is some yes, but I look at past winners and contenders who had really good track records and have been slumping in mediocrity. Maybe I should try harder, but the 1 minute making my picks is saving time for other things worth more. I'm not watching games nor coverage, so I'm hurting I think and so be it.
I am a robot.
EdCollins
EdCollins 
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Mission146
October 11th, 2019 at 9:50:30 PM permalink
Please note that if you plan on making a pick on the Panthers/Buccaneers game, you will need to get your picks in a tad earlier than the normal Sunday 10:00 am EST deadline.

That game's being played in London and kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 am EST.

As I recall, a pick on that game submitted after the kickoff would result in an automatic loss AND would make you ineligible for the You Suck and Most Average prizes.
unJon
unJon
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Mission146
October 11th, 2019 at 9:54:30 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Please note that if you plan on making a pick on the Panthers/Buccaneers game, you will need to get your picks in a tad earlier than the normal Sunday 10:00 am EST deadline.

That game's being played in London and kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 am EST.

As I recall, a pick on that game submitted after the kickoff would result in an automatic loss AND would make you ineligible for the You Suck and Most Average prizes.

How does that interact with the ONM prize for timing of submission? :-/
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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