Thread Rating:

gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
  • Threads: 61
  • Posts: 5373
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
Thanked by
Mission146
September 10th, 2019 at 9:57:43 AM permalink
Patriots (-18.5) vs Dolphins! Perhaps it will go to -20 by Thursday because public is 86% betting on Pats.

Patriots + AB! versus the defenseless Dolphins, tanking for Tua. This second week of picks should be intriguing.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
Thanked by
Mission146
September 10th, 2019 at 11:42:14 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Patriots (-18.5) vs Dolphins! Perhaps it will go to -20 by Thursday because public is 86% betting on Pats.

Patriots + AB! versus the defenseless Dolphins, tanking for Tua. This second week of picks should be intriguing.



sounds like a trap bet
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1222
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
Thanked by
Romes
September 11th, 2019 at 4:41:34 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Ugh, first half 14-3 was looking like the perfection bonus with Texas/Saints UNDER 53.5... Drew put up a hell of a second half to push me back on the 5-1. Not a bad first week though =).



You are perfect to me.
<Batting my eyelashes and speaking in a soft voice>
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11516
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
September 11th, 2019 at 4:47:11 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Patriots (-18.5) vs Dolphins! Perhaps it will go to -20 by Thursday because public is 86% betting on Pats.

Patriots + AB! versus the defenseless Dolphins, tanking for Tua. This second week of picks should be intriguing.



Patriots with Brady, with Gronk, with Edelman, with etc... are 1-5 in last 6 games in Miami. These were NOT good Miami teams.

(I'll still take Pats -18.5)
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
prozema
September 12th, 2019 at 6:23:54 PM permalink
Colts (+3) @ Titans (-3) O/U 44
Chargers (-2.5) @ Lions (+2.5) O/U 47.5
Bills (-1.5) @ Giants (+1.5) O/U 44
Cardinals (+13) @ Ravens (-13) O/U 46.5
Patriots (-18.5) @ Dolphins (+18.5) O/U 48.5
Cowboys (-5.5) @ Redskins (+5.5) O/U 46.5
Jaguars (+8.5) @ Texans (-8.5) O/U 43.5
Seahawks (+4) @ Steelers (-4) O/U 47
49ers (+1.5) @ Bengals (-1.5) O/U 45.5
Vikings (+3) @ Packers (-3) O/U 44
Chiefs (-7) @ Raiders (+7) O/U 53.5
Saints (+2) @ Rams (-2) O/U 52
Bears (-2.5) @ Broncos (+2.5) O/U 40.5
Eagles (-1.5) @ Falcons (+1.5) O/U 52.5
Browns (-6.5) @ Jets (+6.5) O/U 44
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
mipletAyecarumbagordonm888Mission146prozema
September 12th, 2019 at 6:33:12 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Colts (+3) @ Titans (-3) O/U 44
Chargers (-2.5) @ Lions (+2.5) O/U 47.5
Bills (-1.5) @ Giants (+1.5) O/U 44
Cardinals (+13) @ Ravens (-13) O/U 46.5
Patriots (-18.5) @ Dolphins (+18.5) O/U 48.5
Cowboys (-5.5) @ Redskins (+5.5) O/U 46.5
Jaguars (+8.5) @ Texans (-8.5) O/U 43.5
Seahawks (+4) @ Steelers (-4) O/U 47
49ers (+1.5) @ Bengals (-1.5) O/U 45.5
Vikings (+3) @ Packers (-3) O/U 44
Chiefs (-7) @ Raiders (+7) O/U 53.5
Saints (+2) @ Rams (-2) O/U 52
Bears (-2.5) @ Broncos (+2.5) O/U 40.5
Eagles (-1.5) @ Falcons (+1.5) O/U 52.5
Browns (-6.5) @ Jets (+6.5) O/U 44



fyi... one of the things I have been doing manually each year is enter the line spread and the over/under spread by hand into my calculator spreadsheet. This year I finally got tired of doing that, (even though it only took a couple of minutes) so I wrote a little routine that enters them for me. All I have to do is copy the entire list above and paste it into a cell, and then click a button. And boom... just like that, all of your lines are entered into my spreadsheet, into the appropriate cells, for that week.

ALSO this year I automated another item I was also doing by hand. Up until now I've been updating the Skip Weeks by hand. Now that's automated too... the calculator program determines who, if anyone, skipped each week.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 170
  • Posts: 22678
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
Thanked by
RS
September 12th, 2019 at 8:16:49 PM permalink
GWAE 1 5 16.67%

ROFLMAO
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
GenWyzgy
GenWyzgy
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 89
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
Thanked by
beachbumbabsJoemanprozemaGWAEmichael99000gordonm888Romes
September 13th, 2019 at 8:38:20 AM permalink
I'm going to add another $25 side-game.

In order to further entice folks to make confidence bets, $25 to whichever player finishes the year having LOST the most confidence bets. So, all of us who missed our confidence bets in week one have a head start on the field.

To be clear, this is based solely on the number of confidence bets a player places that lose. Someone who goes 0-3 in confidence bets is behind someone who goes 7-4. My guess it will take at least 10 or 11 missed confidence bets to get the $$.

I expect to win this one, so it won't cost me anything!
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
September 13th, 2019 at 1:12:53 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

GWAE 1 5 16.67%

ROFLMAO



mlm
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
prozema
September 13th, 2019 at 4:35:01 PM permalink
GenWyzgy,

Thanks for the addition to the prize pool!! Much appreciated.

But is it necessary to entice players further? Isn't there already now enough enticement to make a Confidence Pick each week? (6-0 wins cash but 5-0, picking the same five games, does not.)

Last week, 29/30 players made a Confidence pick. By comparison, last year for Week #1 only 20 of 32 people made a Confidence Pick.

Furthermore, and maybe more importantly, what's the reason to entice players to make Confidence Picks? (As opposed to enticing players to do something else, like pick Overs, or pick home dogs, or pick West Coast teams traveling to the East, etc.)
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
  • Threads: 266
  • Posts: 4044
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2019 at 7:03:28 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Furthermore, and maybe more importantly, what's the reason to entice players to make Confidence Picks? (As opposed to enticing players to do something else, like pick Overs, or pick home dogs, or pick West Coast teams traveling to the East, etc.)

Well there you go with your logic and whatnot. I don't think he needs a reason. His money, his rules. Just makes things more interesting I guess.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1222
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2019 at 7:35:53 PM permalink
Quote: JohnnyQ

Well there you go with your logic and whatnot. I don't think he needs a reason. His money, his rules. Just makes things more interesting I guess.



I agree with both you and Ed. No need to provide further incentive for confidence picks but at the same time no reason to question how a man wants to spend his money especially if it's more in the prize pool... Besides, we already have a "You Suck" prize for total picks that returns the entry fee, now we have an equivalent for confidence picks. Seems reasonable.

I was toying with the notion of funding a prize in this contest myself just because I enjoy this game and would like to see it continue but I was struggling to come up with something unique and fun...

I thought about a "set-it-and-forget-it" prize for someone who wanted to pick the same pick every week... i.e. they pick Patriots OVER X, Ravens Under X, 49ers +X, Miami -X, Alberta Over X every week where X is the current line, best record wins... but that seemed dumb because then it's not really a pickem game anymore... I didn't think anyone would play.

My latest thought was more of a side bet unrelated to the main game... For example to have everyone who wanted to play submit a guess on how many times Axel will post in this thread even though he isn't playing. I kinda like that idea, but I'm not confident I have enough time to accurately keep track of his posts... It's also seems ripe for collusion... Probably not my best idea either...

Anyway, if anyone has a good idea but doesn't want to part with $50 (arbitrary number) hollar... Just a side note, I'm really not a fan of random chance games like closest to the record of any random team. I would also like to play in my own game to defend my $50 so it would be best if it were something where me funding or administering the game does not give me an unfair advantage playing the game.

While I'm spouting off random thoughts... Somewhat related I suppose... Since we didn't pay in advance this year what is the typical protocol for paying the winner(s)? i.e. do you guys just paypal each other with your real names tied to the accounts or PM amazon codes for the sake of staying anonymous? I think I would make my prize a $50 amazon code that could be sent via PM so no one has to disclose their personal information to me to get paid... Not sure if I'm thinking about this right.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2019 at 7:36:32 PM permalink
Quote: JohnnyQ

Well there you go with your logic and whatnot. I don't think he needs a reason. His money, his rules. Just makes things more interesting I guess.

Well sure, he doesn't NEED a reason. Maybe he has no reason at all. But if he has one I'm curious as to what it was, curious enough to ask.

(I, for one, can't think of anything I do without some reason for it.)
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2019 at 7:40:12 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

Since we didn't pay in advance this year what is the typical protocol for paying the winner(s)?

As I recall, the year I won, yes, most players paid me via PayPal. I'm now also set up with Venmo and Cash App, but I'm pretty sure back then I didn't have either of those methods.
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2019 at 7:40:59 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

I agree with both you and Ed. No need to provide further incentive for confidence picks but at the same time no reason to question how a man wants to spend his money especially if it's more in the prize pool... Besides, we already have a "You Suck" prize for total picks that returns the entry fee, now we have an equivalent for confidence picks. Seems reasonable.

I was toying with the notion of funding a prize in this contest myself just because I enjoy this game and would like to see it continue but I was struggling to come up with something unique and fun...

I thought about a "set-it-and-forget-it" prize for someone who wanted to pick the same pick every week... i.e. they pick Patriots OVER X, Ravens Under X, 49ers +X, Miami -X, Alberta Over X every week where X is the current line, but that seemed dumb because then it's not really a pickem game anymore... I didn't think anyone would play.

My latest thought was more of a side bet unrelated to the main game... For example to have everyone who wanted to play submit a guess on how many times Axel will post in this thread even though he isn't playing. I kinda like that idea, but I'm not confident I have enough time to accurately keep track of his posts... It's also seems ripe for collusion... Probably not my best idea either...

Anyway, if anyone has a good idea but doesn't want to part with $50 hollar... Just a side note, I'm really not a fan of random chance games like closest to the record of any random team. I would also like to play in my own game to defend my $50 so it would be best if it were something where me funding or administering the game does not give me an unfair advantage playing the game.

While I'm spouting off random thoughts... Somewhat related I suppose... Since we didn't pay in advance this year what is the typical protocol for paying the winner(s)? i.e. do you guys just paypal each other with your real names tied to the accounts or PM amazon codes for the sake of staying anonymous? I think I would make my prize a $50 amazon code that could be sent via PM so no one has to disclose their personal information to me to get paid... Not sure if I'm thinking about this right.



Yeah the payment thing wasnt really addressed. I know there are a bunch of people that want to stay anonymous. If the winner is ok with Amazon codes then that is the easiest. If they want cash it will take some work. I know many people ls names on here so people could send me money and I could make a payment to the winner. Others can as well like bbb if she wanted to. Are there anonymous payment things like venmo?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1222
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2019 at 7:46:03 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Yeah the payment thing wasnt really addressed. I know there are a bunch of people that want to stay anonymous. If the winner is ok with Amazon codes then that is the easiest. If they want cash it will take some work. I know many people ls names on here so people could send me money and I could make a payment to the winner. Others can as well like bbb if she wanted to. Are there anonymous payment things like venmo?



I didn't know venmo was anonymous. I'll check that out. Thank you!
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
prozemaMission146
September 13th, 2019 at 7:49:06 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Are there anonymous payment things like venmo?

I can confirm that Venmo is indeed anonymous. I've received more than 50 Venmo payments over the past two weeks, and many of the Venmo names I see as having paid me are just a nickname, or maybe their first name and initial of last name. Of course, lots of others choose to use their full name too.
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
Thanked by
prozemaMission146
September 13th, 2019 at 8:17:21 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

I didn't know venmo was anonymous. I'll check that out. Thank you!



I didn't either until ed said so. I worded that poorly. I meant a system like venmo, except that was anonymous.

If anyone wants to practice and send me money, I will check to see if you are anonymous
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1222
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2019 at 8:26:23 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE



If anyone wants to practice and send me money, I will check to see if you are anonymous



Ha! Thanks for taking one for the team.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2019 at 8:34:18 PM permalink
To clarify, Venmo is only anonymous if you choose it to be, by selecting a screen name that is not your true name, and possibly choosing to set some of your Venmo settings as private. Lots of Venmo payments to me are from people that I'm sure are indeed using their real name.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
Thanked by
prozemaMission146
September 14th, 2019 at 12:42:03 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

I agree with both you and Ed. No need to provide further incentive for confidence picks but at the same time no reason to question how a man wants to spend his money especially if it's more in the prize pool... Besides, we already have a "You Suck" prize for total picks that returns the entry fee, now we have an equivalent for confidence picks. Seems reasonable.

I was toying with the notion of funding a prize in this contest myself just because I enjoy this game and would like to see it continue but I was struggling to come up with something unique and fun...

I thought about a "set-it-and-forget-it" prize for someone who wanted to pick the same pick every week... i.e. they pick Patriots OVER X, Ravens Under X, 49ers +X, Miami -X, Alberta Over X every week where X is the current line, best record wins... but that seemed dumb because then it's not really a pickem game anymore... I didn't think anyone would play.

My latest thought was more of a side bet unrelated to the main game... For example to have everyone who wanted to play submit a guess on how many times Axel will post in this thread even though he isn't playing. I kinda like that idea, but I'm not confident I have enough time to accurately keep track of his posts... It's also seems ripe for collusion... Probably not my best idea either...

Anyway, if anyone has a good idea but doesn't want to part with $50 (arbitrary number) hollar... Just a side note, I'm really not a fan of random chance games like closest to the record of any random team. I would also like to play in my own game to defend my $50 so it would be best if it were something where me funding or administering the game does not give me an unfair advantage playing the game.

While I'm spouting off random thoughts... Somewhat related I suppose... Since we didn't pay in advance this year what is the typical protocol for paying the winner(s)? i.e. do you guys just paypal each other with your real names tied to the accounts or PM amazon codes for the sake of staying anonymous? I think I would make my prize a $50 amazon code that could be sent via PM so no one has to disclose their personal information to me to get paid... Not sure if I'm thinking about this right.



How about a “Swami Says” game, where players predict the total number of touchdowns via passing, rushing and “other” on a certain Sunday?

or, how about a “Coyote” prize for the best record amongst those who opt in to go 5.0 weeks in a row without a confidence pick?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
GenWyzgy
GenWyzgy
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 89
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
Thanked by
Mission146
September 14th, 2019 at 4:22:25 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

GenWyzgy,

Thanks for the addition to the prize pool!! Much appreciated.

But is it necessary to entice players further? Isn't there already now enough enticement to make a Confidence Pick each week? (6-0 wins cash but 5-0, picking the same five games, does not.)

Last week, 29/30 players made a Confidence pick. By comparison, last year for Week #1 only 20 of 32 people made a Confidence Pick.

Furthermore, and maybe more importantly, what's the reason to entice players to make Confidence Picks? (As opposed to enticing players to do something else, like pick Overs, or pick home dogs, or pick West Coast teams traveling to the East, etc.)



It’s less of an additional enticement than another “you suck” type prize. I hadn’t recognized that nearly everyone placed a confidence bet week 1. If I thought it was simple to track, I think I’d have given the cash to the player with the biggest negative difference between their confidence picks and their standard picks.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Mission146
September 14th, 2019 at 6:49:05 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

...or, how about a “Coyote” prize for the best record amongst those who opt in to go 5.0 weeks in a row without a confidence pick?

Your question brings up an interesting idea. If, for example, there was a cash prize that negated the 6-0 bonus prize, and was only awarded for going exactly 5-0 (and if that prize was equal in value to the 6-0 prize), we'd be back to where we were these past several years... only picking a Confidence game when we were just that... confident enough of that selection to want it to be worth two points for a win instead of one.

As it is now of course, with the new 6-0 bonus prize, it does make sense to pick one Confidence Game each week. 29/30 people last week realized this.

And with that imagined 5-0 Bonus award, if more players were regularly picking a Confidence game than not, I suspect you'd probably want to not pick one... for a better chance of being the only one go go 5-0.

Ah, but once everyone realized and started doing that, the strategy would again swing the other way... and you'd probably want to start picking a Confidence game again.

In hindsight, a perfect bonus should probably have been set up to be paid at 5-0 or 6-0. Reason: If you're got a rule in a contest that allows you to choose one and only one game to be worth two points, but then you've got another rule in that same contest that says a bonus will be paid out... but only at 6-0... there's really little point to the first rule. (Assuming you're interested in a contest with simplicity and clarity and assuming you expect the players to make smart decisions.) For practical purposes, that first rule should say you have to always pick one Confidence game, since the second rule now makes it strategic sense to always do so.

Please note that I'm appreciative of all of the donated cash prizes and yes, I know those donating them are free to set them up with any rules or criteria they want.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
Thanked by
Mission146
September 14th, 2019 at 7:42:59 AM permalink
I, for one, find the new "game within the game" more interesting and fun. The first few weeks are difficult to call since the preseason is even more meaningless than before and veteran players are only now seeing full speed play.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Mission146
September 14th, 2019 at 7:50:09 AM permalink
The weekly bonus is great because it will keep players interested late in the season, even though they might already be out of contention for the main prize.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
Thanked by
Mission146
September 14th, 2019 at 10:50:46 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Your question brings up an interesting idea. If, for example, there was a cash prize that negated the 6-0 bonus prize, and was only awarded for going exactly 5-0 (and if that prize was equal in value to the 6-0 prize), we'd be back to where we were these past several years... only picking a Confidence game when we were just that... confident enough of that selection to want it to be worth two points for a win instead of one.

As it is now of course, with the new 6-0 bonus prize, it does make sense to pick one Confidence Game each week. 29/30 people last week realized this.

And with that imagined 5-0 Bonus award, if more players were regularly picking a Confidence game than not, I suspect you'd probably want to not pick one... for a better chance of being the only one go go 5-0.

Ah, but once everyone realized and started doing that, the strategy would again swing the other way... and you'd probably want to start picking a Confidence game again.

In hindsight, a perfect bonus should probably have been set up to be paid at 5-0 or 6-0. Reason: If you're got a rule in a contest that allows you to choose one and only one game to be worth two points, but then you've got another rule in that same contest that says a bonus will be paid out... but only at 6-0... there's really little point to the first rule. (Assuming you're interested in a contest with simplicity and clarity and assuming you expect the players to make smart decisions.) For practical purposes, that first rule should say you have to always pick one Confidence game, since the second rule now makes it strategic sense to always do so.

Please note that I'm appreciative of all of the donated cash prizes and yes, I know those donating them are free to set them up with any rules or criteria they want.



FWIW, my geek prizes are for EITHER 5-0 or 6-0, and EITHER 0-6 or 0-5, just in order to avoid forcing confidence picks on those who don't like them. I myself do like them, so it will be rare I will only go 5. But I couldn't see penalizing those that want to play with less volatility.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
September 14th, 2019 at 6:44:56 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins



In hindsight, a perfect bonus should probably have been set up to be paid at 5-0 or 6-0. Reason: If you're got a rule in a contest that allows you to choose one and only one game to be worth two points, but then you've got another rule in that same contest that says a bonus will be paid out... but only at 6-0... there's really little point to the first rule. (Assuming you're interested in a contest with simplicity and clarity and assuming you expect the players to make smart decisions.) For practical purposes, that first rule should say you have to always pick one Confidence game, since the second rule now makes it strategic sense to always do so.

Please note that I'm appreciative of all of the donated cash prizes and yes, I know those donating them are free to set them up with any rules or criteria they want.



I like Confidence Picks, but there may be a strategic reason, particularly toward the end, to want to avoid Variance even if it means tossing away a shot at Perfection.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1222
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
Thanked by
Mission146Johnzimbo
September 14th, 2019 at 6:51:52 PM permalink
I just submitted my picks and the only reason I choose a confidence this week is for the perfection bonus. I don't want to complain about too many prizes, but this is starting to feel like a bit like a slot machine pay table. I need to go back and re-read the rules so I have all the targets in view.

If I recall correctly I considered skipping week 2 last year and was punished for not doing it. Let's see if history repeats its self.
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1222
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
Thanked by
Mission146
September 14th, 2019 at 6:54:53 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Your question brings up an interesting idea. If, for example, there was a cash prize that negated the 6-0 bonus prize, and was only awarded for going exactly 5-0 (and if that prize was equal in value to the 6-0 prize), we'd be back to where we were these past several years... only picking a Confidence game when we were just that... confident enough of that selection to want it to be worth two points for a win instead of one.

As it is now of course, with the new 6-0 bonus prize, it does make sense to pick one Confidence Game each week. 29/30 people last week realized this.

And with that imagined 5-0 Bonus award, if more players were regularly picking a Confidence game than not, I suspect you'd probably want to not pick one... for a better chance of being the only one go go 5-0.

Ah, but once everyone realized and started doing that, the strategy would again swing the other way... and you'd probably want to start picking a Confidence game again.

In hindsight, a perfect bonus should probably have been set up to be paid at 5-0 or 6-0. Reason: If you're got a rule in a contest that allows you to choose one and only one game to be worth two points, but then you've got another rule in that same contest that says a bonus will be paid out... but only at 6-0... there's really little point to the first rule. (Assuming you're interested in a contest with simplicity and clarity and assuming you expect the players to make smart decisions.) For practical purposes, that first rule should say you have to always pick one Confidence game, since the second rule now makes it strategic sense to always do so.

Please note that I'm appreciative of all of the donated cash prizes and yes, I know those donating them are free to set them up with any rules or criteria they want.



This made my head hurt.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
Thanked by
prozemaMission146
September 15th, 2019 at 6:44:46 AM permalink
For the convenience of the players, is there a way to make the official thread "sticky" for the season?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1222
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 7:21:03 AM permalink
Now that the deadline is past, I'm very interested to see how many people picked Miami. I was really considering it but decided not to put chips there.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 7:26:41 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

Now that the deadline is past, I'm very interested to see how many people picked Miami. I was really considering it but decided not to put chips there.

I considered it right away, and actually entered it in my list... but then the more I looked and the more I thought about it, I actually started liking the Pats. So I changed it to the Pats... but then later decided to just pass on that game completely.
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1222
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 7:32:02 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

I considered it right away, and actually entered it in my list... but then the more I looked and the more I thought about it, I actually started liking the Pats. So I changed it to the Pats... but then later decided to just pass on that game completely.



I spoke to my staff clairvoyant and even they were confused on the Miami / New England game. They did however predict that l like bacon. Right again!
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
September 15th, 2019 at 7:56:16 AM permalink
The picks will be up around 11:45 EST, sorry about the delay.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
September 15th, 2019 at 8:36:29 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 2 Picks are as follows:

Please keep in mind that Picks appear in a semi-random order to preserve the integrity of the ONM-Mission-Prozema trophy.

I want to thank everyone for doing a great job on Pick formatting! Almost 100% accuracy! We only had two or three with a superfluous line break between the handle and the Picks themselves, (which I would prefer not, but would almost certainly accept) otherwise perfect!!!

Mission146:
Bills -1.5
Cowboys -5.5-CONFIDENCE
Jaguars +8.5
49ers +1.5
Jets +6.5

scolist:
Titans -3 Confidence
Cowboys -5.5
Chargers -2.5
Cardinals +13
Steelers -4

SOOPOO:
Cardinals +13
Cowboys -5.5
Seahawks + 4
Bears -2.5 confidence
Browns -6.5

Johnzimbo:
Browns -6.5
Browns under 44
Rams -2
Cowboys -5.5
Broncos +2.5 confidence

Michael99000:
Colts UNDER 44
Chargers UNDER 47.5
Bills OVER 44
Cardinals UNDER 46.5
Patriots UNDER 48.5 CONFIDENCE

prozema:
Jaguars +8.5
Lions +2.5
Seahawks +4
Vikings +3
Vikings UNDER 44 - Confidence

johnnyq:
Giants (+1.5)
Cardinals (+13)
Dolphins (+18.5) confidence
Redskins (+5.5)
Broncos (+2.5)

Joeman:
Saints OVER 52
Falcons +1.5
Chiefs -7 -Confidence
Jaguars +8.5
Seahawks +4

Paradigm:
Broncos +2.5-Confidence
Chargers -2.5
Cowboys Over 46.5
Chiefs -7
Ravens Over 46.5

Bruce1:
Dolphins (+18.5)
Redskins (+5.5)
49ers (+1.5)
Rams (-2)
Browns (-6.5)

Ayecarumba:
Lions +2.5
Dolphins +18.5
Redskins +5.5
Raiders +7
Rams -2 -Confidence

IndyJeffrey:
Lions +2.5
Bills -1.5
Jaguars +8.5-Confidence
Bengals -1.5
Falcons +1.5

Unjon:
Colts +3-confidence
Rams -2
Bears -2.5
Cardinals +13
Chiefs OVER 53.5

Sparty10k:
Bills -1.5
Patriots -18.5
Bengals -1.5 confidence
Packers -3
Eagles -1.5

rdw4potus:
Dolphins +18.5
Falcons Under 52.5
Rams - 2
Chiefs under 53.5
Vikings +3

Gordonm888:
Cardinals +13
Patriots -18.5 Confidence
Browns -6.5
Redskins +5.5
Vikings +3

FourFiveFace:
Lions +2.5-Confidence
Cardinals +13
Redskins +5.5
Jaguars +8.5
Bears -2.5

Mwalz9:
LIONS +2.5 CONFIDENCE
DOLPHINS +18.5
BEARS -2.5
RAVENS UNDER 46.5
PACKERS UNDER 44

odiousgambit:
Colts over 44
Jaguars under 43.5
Seahawks over 47
49ers under 45.5
Vikings over 44

Beachbumbabs:
Detroit +2.5
Vikings +3 - confidence
Saints +2
Bears -2.5
Bengals -1.5

DJatc:
Chargers UNDER 47.5
Jaguars UNDER 43.5
49ers +1.5
49ers OVER 45.5
Vikings UNDER 44-CONFIDENCE

miplet:
Lions +2.5
Bills -1.5
Seahawks +4-confidence
49ers +1.5
Packers UNDER 44

MidwestAP:
Dolphins +18.5
Seahawks +4
Raiders +7
Rams -2
Bears UNDER 40.5 - Confidence

JW17:
Broncos +2.5 confidence
Dolphins +18.5
Cardinals +13
Jets +6.5
Chiefs UNDER

Wizard:
Titans (-3)
Lions (+2.5)
Seahawks (+4)
Vikings (+3) -- confidence
Raiders (+7)

GenWyzgy:
Bills Under 44
Seahawks Under 47
Vikings Under 44 Confidence
Colts Under 44
Dolphins +18.5

RisingDough:
Titans -3
Dolphins +18.5
Texans -8.5
Packers UNDER 44
Bears -2.5 CONFIDENCE

Romes:
Titans -3
Saints +2
49ers +1.5
Dolphins +18.5
Browns -6.5 CONFIDENCE

kuma:
Lions +2.5
Dolphins +18.5
Vikings +3
Packers under 44
Raiders +7 -- confidence

Onenickelmiracle:
Eagles -1.5 confidence
Redskins +5.5
Bears -2.5
Cardinals +13
Dolphins +18.5

EdCollins:
Cowboys -5.5
Ravens -13
Rams -2 (Confidence)
Seahawks +4
49ers +1.5

PlayYourCardsRight:
Patriots -18.5
Cowboys -5.5 - CONFIDENCE
Texans -8.5
Chiefs -7
Rams -2

GWAE:
Dolphins +18.5
Texans -8.5
Packers -3 confidence
Raiders +7
Eagles -1.5

WEEK 2 PERFECTION BONUS: $20

ONM-Mission-Prozema Prize Update

Qualifying Friday Picks: 9
Qualifying Sunday Picks: 1
Last edited by: Mission146 on Sep 15, 2019
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1222
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 8:42:19 AM permalink
Hi Mission,
You have me on the list twice. I picked the Jags not the Titans.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 8:48:02 AM permalink
fyi...

Typo somewhere. prozema is listed twice, with different picks.

Also, the picks before Sparty10k have no name associated to them. Edit: They might belong to unJon. I don't seem him elsewhere. Please confirm.
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 1188
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 8:49:16 AM permalink
The set of picks above Sparty is missing the name
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
EdCollins
September 15th, 2019 at 8:54:36 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

Hi Mission,
You have me on the list twice. I picked the Jags not the Titans.



Quote: EdCollins

fyi...

Typo somewhere. prozema is listed twice, with different picks.

Also, the picks before Sparty10k have no name associated to them. Edit: They might belong to unJon. I don't seem him elsewhere. Please confirm.



Quote: JohnZimbo

The set of picks above Sparty is missing the name



You guys are quick! I didn't get a chance to even start, "Cleaning up!"

PROZEMA PICKS: Prozema sent an amended set of Picks after his initial set of Picks and is quite correct. The offending Picks have been removed. This happened because I'm opening the PM's in a semi-random order, so I just opened both whereas I would normally open and disregard a duplicate. This will likely happen a few times this season, but should be cleaned up before kickoff of any games.

PHANTOM PICKS: They do belong to Unjon, he forgot to put his name above them in the PM and I sent a corrective PM, per the rules.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Mission146JohnnyQprozemaGWAEbeachbumbabsmipletJoeman
September 15th, 2019 at 9:00:50 AM permalink
I believe this is the Week 2 Consensus
(Three players chose not to pick a Confidence Game this week.)


Lots of love for the Dolphins, Rams.. and LIONS?
Game Line Total Visitor Home Over Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
-
-
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals
-1.5
45.5
6
4
1
1
Los Angeles Chargers @ Detroit Lions
2.5
47.5
2
11
2
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
-3
44
8
3
1
10
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
-8.5
43.5
6
3
2
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
18.5
48.5
4
14
2
Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants
1.5
44
4
1
1
1
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
-3
44
2
5
1
2
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
-4
47
8
1
1
1
Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens
-13
46.5
8
1
1
2
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
5.5
46.5
8
6
1
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
7
53.5
4
6
1
2
Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos
2.5
40.5
9
7
2
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
-2
52
2
10
1
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
1.5
52.5
4
2
1
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
6.5
44
6
2
1
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 9:05:35 AM permalink
Gordon has redskins listed as +6
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
EdCollinsJohnnyQJoeman
September 15th, 2019 at 9:07:47 AM permalink
What a gorgeous chart, thank you so much for that and everything you do for this game, EdCollins!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
gordonm888
September 15th, 2019 at 9:08:13 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Gordon has redskins listed as +6



I'll switch it, but EdCollins' program also defaults it to the correct line, anyway.

EDIT: Fixed, thank you! EdCollins' program only cares about team name and what kind of pick it is. Technically, people don't have to put the actual line, but I like it that way because:

A.) It looks nice.
B.) People can easily check what other people picked.
C.) If EdCollins ever cannot make it on for one reason or another, I may need to grade the Picks manually one day.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 9:26:19 AM permalink
Incase no one cared to look at my other thread. I am using the aggregate bets to make actual wagers. It is a free roll for dinner at the spring fling. Odds are I will go busto sooner than later. If I end the season with a profit I am going to add funds to a playoff picks game. I can not remember what we had last year but I am going to add to the pot. Only those that are in the season long picks game will be eligible for my added playoffs bonus that will be determined based on the final profit. If I go busto then there is no bonus. I will be betting current lines but using picks on stale lines so it will probably end poorly but you never know and besides it is a free roll for everyone so who cares. But for what it is worth. In week 1 there was only 1 game that was affected by the line difference and current wager was on the right side of it. I cant remember which one it was but I think it was the chargers where everyone had them at -6 but current line was -5.5.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/33614-spring-fling-wov-picks-game-free-roll/4/#post739812
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
  • Threads: 266
  • Posts: 4044
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 12:10:06 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins




Game Line Total Visitor Home Over Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
-
-
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals
-1.5
45.5
6
4
1
1
Los Angeles Chargers @ Detroit Lions
2.5
47.5
2
11
2
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
-3
44
8
3
1
10
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
-8.5
43.5
6
3
2
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
18.5
48.5
4
14
2
Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants
1.5
44
4
1
1
1
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
-3
44
2
5
1
2
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
-4
47
8
1
1
1
Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens
-13
46.5
8
1
1
2
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
5.5
46.5
8
6
1
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
7
53.5
4
6
1
2
Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos
2.5
40.5
9
7
2
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
-2
52
2
10
1
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
1.5
52.5
4
2
1
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
6.5
44
6
2
1

Ed's post should be plastered with thank-yous, imho.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 12:35:02 PM permalink
I am watching Steelers game via Hulu. I am following other games on NFL.com. I just realized that NFL.com is a full minute ahead of Hulu. They just scored and on TV they were still on the 30
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 12:39:33 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I am watching Steelers game via Hulu. I am following other games on NFL.com. I just realized that NFL.com is a full minute ahead of Hulu. They just scored and on TV they were still on the 30



ha, nevermind. I apparently started the channel after the game started so it started from the beginning. I can skip the next commercial
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
michael99000
michael99000
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2113
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
September 15th, 2019 at 12:52:29 PM permalink
Dolphins being outscored 96-10 this season.

And that’s with week 2 game still not over yet.
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
miplet
September 15th, 2019 at 1:15:48 PM permalink
J-E-T-S

JETS! JETS! JETS!

Just need one win to Win/Share the first ever awarded Perfection Bonus!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 1188
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146GWAEunJon
September 15th, 2019 at 1:17:22 PM permalink
Too bad you took the Jets 😁
  • Jump to: