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DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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September 9th, 2019 at 5:47:15 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?



Probably yes, but it is early so itis hard to tell.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
RisingDough
RisingDough
Joined: Oct 4, 2016
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September 9th, 2019 at 6:44:06 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?



Patriots beat Pit by 30 and Miami lost at home to Baltimore by 49

this line might grow higher lol. Clearly there will be an overreaction to week 1 results and there will probably be some value on Miami. I'm gonna monitor it. Unfortunately when the betting line is this high the general public tends to stay away. They don't like the idea of laying THAT many points. Patriots will probably get used in lots of teasers by the public.
What is life if not a gamble?
EdgeSorter
EdgeSorter
Joined: Sep 3, 2019
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September 10th, 2019 at 9:19:47 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I think you need to factor in how many games does the average starting quarterback play each year? I would guess it s probably around 12.5.



Using this same logic, I wonder if it would be profitable to take every single season-long player prop UNDER. Especially running backs (who are more inclined to get injured or banged up). For instance, does anyone think Joe Mixon overs are cashing now?
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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September 11th, 2019 at 6:39:48 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?



Miami money line should be very good if it goes any higher
RisingDough
RisingDough
Joined: Oct 4, 2016
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September 12th, 2019 at 3:35:06 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?



I took some Miami +19 starting to see resistance as it's moving back down to +18.5 some places.
What is life if not a gamble?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 12th, 2019 at 4:08:59 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

https://businessofbetting.com/2019/09/02/the-inherent-conflict-with-betting-content/

Very good article here.



You could substitute stock picking for sports betting. Watch one of those shows. You never hear "MSFT priced at 40. exactly where it should be!"
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 12th, 2019 at 4:15:12 AM permalink
Quote: EdgeSorter

Using this same logic, I wonder if it would be profitable to take every single season-long player prop UNDER. Especially running backs (who are more inclined to get injured or banged up). For instance, does anyone think Joe Mixon overs are cashing now?



It depends if you believe that there are players more likely to get injured than others. I believe that Brady, by way of his 'pocket presence', and lack of scrambling, is far less likely to get injured than Allen or Watson, as examples. RB's who make it to the sideline more (avoiding contact) likely have lower injury possibilities,

The best example is Wentz's injury. That NEVER happens to Brady or P Manning because they are never making that run.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 12th, 2019 at 8:41:22 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Miami money line should be very good if it goes any higher



Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
EdgeSorter
EdgeSorter
Joined: Sep 3, 2019
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September 16th, 2019 at 11:37:23 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

It depends if you believe that there are players more likely to get injured than others. I believe that Brady, by way of his 'pocket presence', and lack of scrambling, is far less likely to get injured than Allen or Watson, as examples. RB's who make it to the sideline more (avoiding contact) likely have lower injury possibilities,

The best example is Wentz's injury. That NEVER happens to Brady or P Manning because they are never making that run.



Very good point. This leads to the question, "Is expected number of games played in a season properly baked into the line?"

Every team/athlete is a good bet at the right number.
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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September 16th, 2019 at 12:47:16 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?



They lost by 43-0. Miami is terrible. Maybe the worst NFL team in 40 years.

Now its Cowboys -21 vs Miami. Apply brain and figure this out.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.

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