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vegas
vegas
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
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July 30th, 2019 at 3:58:46 PM permalink
If you win 0 you lose it all
if you win 1 you lose
if you win 2 you more or less break even
if you win all 3 you win cash

That is the problem with favorites is you almost have to win every game. Good luck tonight. I will be rooting for you.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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July 30th, 2019 at 6:34:57 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

If you win 0 you lose it all
if you win 1 you lose
if you win 2 you more or less break even
if you win all 3 you win cash

That is the problem with favorites is you almost have to win every game. Good luck tonight. I will be rooting for you.



yes it is. Based on my early stats it looks like you need to go about 70% to make money. As I am brand new into this I am trying to not read to much and figure things out on my own. Sports betting seems to be full of people like craps system sellers. I figured I would just reinvent the wheel.

ohh and F you Pirates.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
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July 30th, 2019 at 8:44:57 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

My award winning picks for tonight. I am not sharing my 5 team parlay winner. ;-)
Min -145
Cin -140
LAD -150

I got $100 on each. $300 to win $207.07 WMW dont go stealing my picks.



I don't want to clutter this thread with my garbage picks but every once in awhile maybe I will instead of everyday. Todays results.

Min -145 w 168.97
Cin -140 l
LAD -150 w 166.67
+35.64
14-2 +924.18
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambitAxelWolf
July 30th, 2019 at 9:48:35 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I don't want to clutter this thread with my garbage picks but every once in awhile maybe I will instead of everyday. Todays results.

Min -145 w 168.97
Cin -140 l
LAD -150 w 166.67
+35.64
14-2 +924.18



Message Board Sports Bet Posting Rule #1

Thou shall not include unposted plays in your record.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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July 31st, 2019 at 12:25:03 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Why is it that we always do great at gambling on your first go around and makes it seem easy. My first trip to a casino where I was 18 I won $800 on haywire 3 reel.

I am 12-1 on MLB ML on my first 13 bets since pa online went live. They range from +115 to -180. At this rate I will retire by the end of the year. Doing $100 bets, up $890.

Now that I wrote this I will go 1-12

Are the online markets in PA better than the live sportsbooks? Every random time I make a trip around the state and go through rivers the lines are awful. Like you can get a line online at -110, at rivers it's -120. If online it's +145, at rivers it'll be +130. I feel like they shave / take a 2 dime charge instead of 1 like every other sportsbook in the world.

12-1 is great, of course, but variance is variance my friend. Even the best cappers come in around 58%-60%. I expect regression to the mean eventually, but hopefully you get that good EV!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
GWAE
GWAE
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July 31st, 2019 at 5:06:36 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Message Board Sports Bet Posting Rule #1

Thou shall not include unposted plays in your record.



lol yes I understand that because I could obviously just make the record up. If I had gone 6-6 then I would have just not posted anything. Currently on a run good and just wanted to post it.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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July 31st, 2019 at 5:23:08 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Are the online markets in PA better than the live sportsbooks? Every random time I make a trip around the state and go through rivers the lines are awful. Like you can get a line online at -110, at rivers it's -120. If online it's +145, at rivers it'll be +130. I feel like they shave / take a 2 dime charge instead of 1 like every other sportsbook in the world.

12-1 is great, of course, but variance is variance my friend. Even the best cappers come in around 58%-60%. I expect regression to the mean eventually, but hopefully you get that good EV!



I know next to nothing about all of this. I have been using https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/mlb-baseball/ to look at the lines that are available online. Right now WAS at the rivers is +105 and on that site they range +100 to +105 so it is close, however ATL is -120 but online it is -111 to -120. The Pirates/Reds game at the rivers is 185/-215 and online it is 180-190/203-212 . What it appears is that the lines for online books is very dynamic the lines for the rivers online are stale. The opening lines on those games are the same or worse at the rivers, or maybe they just dont move as much. Even while typing this the lines on that website were moving all over the place.

now for bad lines that would be parx online.
Game/ Rivers / Parx
WAS -120/105 -124/102
CIN +185/-215 +180/-225

Hopefully my variance continues. If not at least not I am playing with "house" money at this point.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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July 31st, 2019 at 5:25:20 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

My award winning picks for tonight. I am not sharing my 5 team parlay winner. ;-)

Min -145
Cin -140
LAD -150

I got $100 on each. $300 to win $207.07 WMW dont go stealing my picks.



Chalk much?
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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July 31st, 2019 at 6:18:36 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

Chalk much?



yeah whats wrong with that?

Yesterdays chalk losers.

SD -242
NYY -240
Cin -140
BOS -140
TEX -122
CHC -130

2-1 seems pretty ok with those big favorites losing
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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July 31st, 2019 at 10:00:45 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

yeah whats wrong with that?




Sounds incredibly profitable long term. Best of luck.

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