... AP for NBA totals?

Hi,

I have a potential AP for betting on NBA totals and would like to know if anyone has more up to date data than the useful link below:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nba/old-stuff/

then scroll down to: "Buying/Selling Extra Points on the Total"

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Below is the potential AP scenario:

An online sports books lets you "bail out" or "cash out" your bet before the game commences and they don't seem to charge a commission for NBA totals (they normally charge a commission to cash out of all other bets, if the line or odds have moved against the punter/customer)

Scenario: In 76ers @ Raptors game today I bet $110 to $100 on both the over 209 and $110 to $100 on the under 209.

The total is now 210 with that sports book, so i bailed out of the under 209, and received my $110 back.

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Strategy that I am using

1: Bet on both the over and the under, as soon as it becomes available.
2(a): If the total changes early, then i will cash out the "bad bet”, and then have the same bet again at the current total.
2(b): If the total doesn't change early, then i will go to step 3.
3: With about 5 minutes to game time, I will have another look to see what the likely "average closing total" will be using the Sports Insights and Vegas Insider websites.
4(a): If my bet is 1.5 points better than the average closing line (or more), then I will keep that bet.
4(b): If my bet is 1 point better or less than the average closing line, then I will cash out of that bet.

Note: I don't have an opinion either way of what I think the total should be, so I am just using the "market movements" to see if the bet has any "value"

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Thanks in advance for any help or opinions provided.

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Update:

I also tested this with small bets on the Trail Blazers @ Nuggets game and had $11 to $10 on both the over and under 213, then I cashed out of the over 213 before the game started (for this game i used an average closing line of about 211.5).

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Update 2:

About 15 minutes to advertised game time, I decided to bail out of both the bets because it looks like the average closing total will only be between 0.5 and 1 pt different to my best bet.

For the bet below I will be using a more advanced strategy (estimated 1/4 kelly)

Starting Bank: $20,000

Game: Trail Blazers @ Warriors

Current Total: 218.5

Original Bet: 2200 to 2000 on the over, and the same bet on the under.

Strategy: Use partial or full cash out facility depending on how much the total changes.

That is a great AP opportunity assuming the sportsbook honors the bets and then allows you to cash out the winnings. I would be scared that they just freeze the account when you try to cash out and they claim cheating and keep all of the funds.

You won’t be able to do this for long before the book boots you. Even if you’re using a bowler account for one side they will easily detect it fairly quickly. Need to be using two different unrelated books.

Quote: DRich

That is a great AP opportunity assuming the sportsbook honors the bets and then allows you to cash out the winnings. I would be scared that they just freeze the account when you try to cash out and they claim cheating and keep all of the funds.

They have honored the bets in the past for the style of play below:

I placed money line bets on a few rugby league games over the weekend (Australia - NRL) and I was looking at some key websites that suggested the odds were going to increase for one team i backed, so I cashed out***, and then put the money back on at the higher odds, and they didn't charge me a commission on that one for cashing out.

***: some games I am not fast enough though and they offer me a pre-game cash out value that is less than my original stake (i won't take the cash out if that happens pre-game).

Also, I have made a similar plays on the horses, which has been good for about 10+ months.

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Update about 935 pm

The book makes other mistakes sometimes and they still pay me, last night (Australian time) i bet on Max Verstappen to come 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the Spanish GP, and got odds of about $3.70^^^.

^^^: Odds of $23 for first, $17 for second and $6 for third = $3.717908... (if you bet so the payout is roughly the same for each bet).

At the same book, they had "will Max have a podium finish" @ $2.75 for "yes" and $1.40 for "no".

Since i could get better value "laying on Betfair" compared to taking $1.40 for no,
I backed Max Verstappen @ $3.70 with the book, and laid it on Betfair at about $3.30 (after the commission) and made about $100 "almost risk free".

Quote: Aussie

You won’t be able to do this for long before the book boots you. Even if you’re using a bowler account for one side they will easily detect it fairly quickly. Need to be using two different unrelated books.

You are probably right.

As far as I know only the one sports book does this (others let you cash out, but this one lets you do it for "free").

I am thinking of doing one of the strategies below (to potentially make the play last longer) :

(1) Having a single bet on either the under or the over.
This will roughly halve the value of the betting type mentioned in the OP per game (but it may let me play longer?)

(2) Having two (or more) accounts and betting different amounts and times on both the over and under.
The value for this type will be almost as good*** as the OP per game (plus it will possibly be harder to track?)

***: the total could change in the one to four hours that i plan to wait before i have the second bet with my friends account

(3) Use either of the above strategies, in conjunction with "normal bets^^^", (lets call these "cover bets").
This will reduce the EV of this play, but will possibly let me play longer?

^^^: bets that generally have a long-term - EV, or at the very least bets that I "let ride", no matter which way the value goes.

Which of the above strategies would you use (if any)?
Do you have another strategy you could suggest?

Thanks

I am going to test and see if they also do this for basketball in other countries (eg Euroleague), the NRL (rugby league) and the AFL (aussie rules).

In the Melbourne Storm vs West Tigers game (NRL), I Just had $10 @ $1.91 on the over 38.5 and in a few hours I will have between $5 and $20 on the under 38.5 (if it is still available).

The book doesn't have any totals for the AFL yet so I can't test that league.

Note: I will also have a small test on the ice hockey, baseball and soccer totals, (but i don't think it will work for those games).

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Update:

I decided not to test the ice hockey, baseball and soccer totals, because i did some research and I think sports books usually change the odds before they change the number for those totals, right?

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Update 2:

I had some small test bets on the spread betting for the two upcoming NBA games (the ones around the 14th to 15th of May).
I did this because i also managed to bail out of the 76ers @ +6, and bet again at +6.5 earlier today (without paying a premium).

Unlike some of our resident pick peddlers, when ksdjdj posts something it's totally legit. Sharp guy when it comes to this type of stuff.

His betting on will the lottery hit using the lottery ticket sales information was smart.

Quote: AxelWolf

Unlike some of our resident pick peddlers, when ksdjdj posts something it's totally legit. Sharp guy when it comes to this type of stuff.

His betting on will the lottery hit using the lottery ticket sales information was smart.

Thanks AxelWolf,

Too bad i am not winning with the lotto bets yet, even though they are still good bets from an EV point of view.

Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks AxelWolf,

Too bad i am not winning with the lotto bets yet, even though they are still good bets from an EV point of view.

Refer the The Wizards tag line. Just not on Superbowl safety bets (-;
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Time for you to Marty those bets, you are due (-;

Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks AxelWolf,

Too bad i am not winning with the lotto bets yet, even though they are still good bets from an EV point of view.

I talked to you a few years back when I noticed some of your stuff. IIRC you were not banked very well at the time. If I may ask(feel free to say NOYB). How have you been doing over all since then?

Quote: AxelWolf

Refer the The Wizards tag line. Just not on Superbowl safety bets (-;
------------------------------------------
Time for you to Marty those bets, you are due (-;

Thanks lol, it does make me feel a little better, when i have been losing but still know they were "good bets".

Also, the Mega Millions has become slightly EV, if you bet on the "no prop" @ -1200.

I am not going to do a full post because the estimated edge is about 1.07% to 2.08% player edge, using $36,000,000 to $42,000,000, as a rough estimate for tickets sales in $ (the tickets now cost $2 per ticket, so the estimate is between 18,000,000 to 21,000,000 tickets sold)

Note: my estimates for Mega Millions are not as good as Powerball, because i have only two ways of estimating for Mega Millions, and three ways for Powerball.

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Update:

The estimated EV for the Powerball prop is nearly 0%, so it won't be long now til it becomes +EV (if the jackpot isn't hit in the next few rolls)

Quote: AxelWolf

I talked to you a few years back when I noticed some of your stuff. IIRC you were not banked very well at the time. If I may ask(feel free to say NOYB). How have you been doing over all since then?

My best plays were

Best "long-term grinding" play: Earning about 140+ EV an hour on my standard game that I play (from 2015 to 2017 and 2019 to ?).

***: it is a lot harder for Aussie players to bet online now, so i am using team viewer and a friend in another country to play this game again.


Best Blackjack result: Over one to two days in 2017 I turned $50,000 capital into about $150,000 betting at pinnacle (posted about this game on WoV)

They had a slightly +EV bj game that i posted about (it had early surrender at the time), and they also gave me 0.3% back on total turnover, so the EV for that game was about 0.36% (bet size $1000 per game, i think)


Best sports betting sessions: Early in 2015, i made about 100,000 USD on the live betting tennis, (posted about this on WoV too, at the time I was surprised that they let me withdraw the money, even though i read the terms and conditions and thought i didn't "break any of their rules")


Best single bet (in terms of EV): probably the lotto bets that i post about, i think the highest has been +82%, when i posted about them.

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Update (about 1205 am)
Best "Teaser" bet (see links below):

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/22280-teaser-discrepancy/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/22314-teaser-discrepancy-2/

Note: i am not trying to re-open those threads, as the play hasn't repeated since then.

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Worst plays:

I have bad sessions too, when i am feeling sick, i tend to play "on-tilt" and chase losses.
I am in control all other times, but when I have a fever, my play style can be worse than all the "square punters" combined.

Note: I should get my ISP to turn off my internet when i am sick, lol.

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BTW, a lot of my threads that i have started have turned out to have been "garbage" (especially the earlier ones), but at the time I thought they were good (or at least worth further discussion), i remember you and others helped me out with them.

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Update:

My other major weakness at the time was bank-roll management.
One time i lost $80,000 flat betting $250 a game on BJ with 0.25% EV, because:

1. My interpretation of "flat betting" at the time was compared to the "initial bank-roll" instead of the "current bank-roll"
2. My stake compared to the initial bank roll was probably "too big" (I was using kelly instead of half or quarter kelly)

NBA totals have increased tremendously since the Wiz posted that info because of increased reliance on 3s

it's not at all unusual to see a total of about 212 and then they actually score close to 250

because of this your edge is not nearly as great as the Wiz's data suggests

the books know this and that is undoubtedly why they allow you to cash out - increased unpredictability

on 3/30 orlando/indiana was set at 205.5 and they actually scored 237 - on 3/29 the Warriors/timberwolves total was set at 228.5 and they actually scored 261

still, you may have an edge -

probably a better speculation on games with low totals involving low scoring teams

Good Luck


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/24/heres-whats-behind-nbas-scoring-explosion/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.be3a1dd6152a

My suggestion is to open as many accounts as you can. If you can open many accounts, then you probably can't screw it up no matter what.

I believe that the O/U laying 11 to 10 does not give you an AP opportunity. First of all, buying 1 point on an over under is not like buying one point on a spread. And when lines move there usually is a reason (3 point shooter found out out be injured, shot blocker not playing, etc...).
If you are going to make a bet on an under as an example, locking in your bet at 200, but having the ability to cancel and re bet at 201 is certainly good for the player.

Quote: ksdjdj

Strategy that I am using


3: With about 5 minutes to game time, I will have another look to see what the likely "average closing total" will be using the Sports Insights and Vegas Insider websites.
4(a): If my bet is 1.5 points better than the average closing line (or more), then I will keep that bet.

Thanks in advance for any help or opinions provided.

also, your idea is based on the assumption that the final closing line is accurate in how it reflects the probable total

many people think this but is it really true?..................................... who knows?

if it's not true then all you did was get a better deal on your bet than those who bet very late - it doesn't mean you have an edge

not trying to be overly critical - just suggesting caution.......................... yellow light

Quote: SOOPOO

I believe that the O/U laying 11 to 10 does not give you an AP opportunity. First of all, buying 1 point on an over under is not like buying one point on a spread. And when lines move there usually is a reason (3 point shooter found out out be injured, shot blocker not playing, etc...).
If you are going to make a bet on an under as an example, locking in your bet at 200, but having the ability to cancel and re bet at 201 is certainly good for the player.

Thanks for the post.
I agree that the spread is more value than the total like you say, but when i wrote the OP i didn't know that I could do it with the spread.
I did some tests last night (Australia time) and it worked for a small test bet on the warriors and trail blazers, i got +8.0 and cancelled the -8 for "free" (i think the new spread is now 7.5?)
I think you need at least 1.5 points on the total and 1 point on the spread, going by the Wiz' table, to be +EV, if it is still accurate to this date?

No AP opportunity here. Carry on.

Quote: lilredrooster

also, your idea is based on the assumption that the final closing line is accurate in how it reflects the probable total

many people think this but is it really true?..................................... who knows?

if it's not true then all you did was get a better deal on your bet than those who bet very late - it doesn't mean you have an edge

not trying to be overly critical - just suggesting caution.......................... yellow light

Thanks for the post.
I still think it is worth trying, but maybe with a different strategy.
I have just been looking at "sports insights think-tank" page (it is a paid service) and it has a few systems that have been profitable.
One system is called "betting against the public on reverse line movements (on the under)", that means if most of the public is on the over, but the total trends down for that game, then you should bet on the under.
Note: even before i got a paid account with sports insights, i knew about the "against the public" strategies from previous research (but i did not know how much it was worth).

Quote: ksdjdj

You are probably right.

As far as I know only the one sports book does this (others let you cash out, but this one lets you do it for "free").

I am thinking of doing one of the strategies below (to potentially make the play last longer) :

(1) Having a single bet on either the under or the over.
This will roughly halve the value of the betting type mentioned in the OP per game (but it may let me play longer?)

(2) Having two (or more) accounts and betting different amounts and times on both the over and under.
The value for this type will be almost as good*** as the OP per game (plus it will possibly be harder to track?)

***: the total could change in the one to four hours that i plan to wait before i have the second bet with my friends account

(3) Use either of the above strategies, in conjunction with "normal bets^^^", (lets call these "cover bets").
This will reduce the EV of this play, but will possibly let me play longer?

^^^: bets that generally have a long-term - EV, or at the very least bets that I "let ride", no matter which way the value goes.

Which of the above strategies would you use (if any)?
Do you have another strategy you could suggest?

Thanks

Which book are you using if you don’t me asking? Send me a PM of you prefer.

If only one book offers this then I would go for 1 or 3. Option 2 won’t last long. The books will quickly see that the same accounts are betting opposite sides of the same games.

My experience playing these types of things as well as the promo markets is that some bets that appear to be “normal” bets will increase the life of your account. They will ban you eventually regardless but some of these will fool them for longer. For example if I have a bonus bet I will back the dog with the bonus bet and the fav elsewhere with cash. I give up a small amount of EV by doing this instead of using Betfair but I get it back with my account lasting longer. I have lasted much longer than other people I know by doing this.

Also obviously worth getting some bowler accounts. Easy enough to find friends or family to sign up for you. And easy to get multiple prepaid sims so you aren’t logging on from the same IP.

Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks for the post.
I still think it is worth trying, but maybe with a different strategy.
I have just been looking at "sports insights think-tank" page (it is a paid service) and it has a few systems that have been profitable.
One system is called "betting against the public on reverse line movements (on the under)", that means if most of the public is on the over, but the total trends down for that game, then you should bet on the under.
Note: even before i got a paid account with sports insights, i knew about the "against the public" strategies from previous research (but i did not know how much it was worth).

It's worth little to nothing, imo. For one thing, I've very skeptical of their ability to distinguish between "the public" and "sharps." A lot of this language seems to be very touty. I am also skeptical of their ability to get accurate info as to who is betting what.

As to the earlier question, consistently beating the prevailing line almost of has to be good if you think it through.

Ultimately, in order for it not to be good, the bookies must be constantly offering +ev bets without anybody ever noticing or adjusting.

There's a lot more to it than that, and a lot of hypothetical discussion. But if anybody wants to book my bets on NBA totals and give me an extra two points off the prevailing line, lmk.

your strategy creates an opportunity for a 𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞

If a point spread opens at +4.5 / -4.5 – and moves to +2.5 / -2.5 there’s an opportunity for a middle. If you bet on the Raptors at +4.5 when the initial line releases and take the Bucs at -2.5 after it shifts, there’s a chance you can win both bets. If you do, you’ll hit the middle, and receive a big-time profit

you would win both bets if the Bucs win by 3 or 4

otherwise you would win one side and lose the other side losing only the vig

I consider a middle to be an advantage play but it's very difficult to determine what the edge is

Quote: lilredrooster

your strategy creates an opportunity for a 𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞

If a point spread opens at +4.5 / -4.5 – and moves to +2.5 / -2.5 there’s an opportunity for a middle. If you bet on the Raptors at +4.5 when the initial line releases and take the Bucs at -2.5 after it shifts, there’s a chance you can win both bets. If you do, you’ll hit the middle, and receive a big-time profit

you would win both bets if the Bucs win by 3 or 4

otherwise you would win one side and lose the other side losing only the vig

I consider a middle to be an advantage play but it's very difficult to determine what the edge is

Very few middles in very few sports present a worthwhile betting opportunity.

Quote: SM777

Very few middles in very few sports present a worthwhile betting opportunity.

This is true. Though if you are lucky in your full game bets, you can find some interesting middles at halftime.

Thanks for the posts everyone.

At the moment it looks like the total for tonight's game will be about 220.5 (most likely between 220 to 221.5), so I think i got about two points there.

Based on that I will probably reduce the bet from 2200 to 330, when the game starts ( most likely live betting***).

***: For some reason their cash out feature works the way it should for live betting, so if i am quick enough, i may be able to earn a few dollars on the cash out (since they pay you more than your initial bet on cash outs that have moved in your favor, live betting).

Also, got Raptors @ +6.5, and U218 for that game, but will wait and see what happens closer to game time for that one.

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Update (about 140 pm Pac time)

I have a pinnacle sports account that lets me log in and work out what they think half a point is worth on the total (but since i live in Australia i haven't been able to bet with them since 2017).

Their point buying/selling on the total is very close to the Wizard's page.

Wiz has 1.158% as the value of buying half a point and pinnacle has 1.268% for half a point (buying off totals that are close to "50% chance").

Also, too bad i can't use pinnacle anymore, as i could lock in a profit by betting on the U219 @ +119

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Update 2 (about 155 Pact time)

Buying points on the spread is worth about 2.06% on the Wiz's page and about 2% according to pinnacle (buying off spreads that are close to "50% chance").

I have been doing this for the finals and for tonight's game I got:

$1870 on the Raptors -1.5 @ -110.

$770 on the Under 215.5 @ -110

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I thought I would post the the result of my "check to see if it works for other sports test".
Result: this glitch doesn't work for any other sport.

Mind if I ask where you're betting?

I've actually been looking at 5dimes and some of their bonuses/etc. Curious... anyone have the 411 on them? Reputable? Actually pay out? Any horror stories?

Quote: Romes

Mind if I ask where you're betting?

I've actually been looking at 5dimes and some of their bonuses/etc. Curious... anyone have the 411 on them? Reputable? Actually pay out? Any horror stories?

5Dimes is the nuts when it comes to offshore sportsbooks.

Live betting update:

Cashed out $770 on my under 215.5 bet early in the 1st quarter, that bet is now a "lose nothing or win $ 220).

Cashed out $770 on my Raptors bet when they were up by 8, so that bet is now a "lose $1100 or win ~ $1300.