UFC wagering

Hey all.. I stumbled upon the site & thought I would share. Only 16 months of documented results with roughly 160 plays, we bet on average +115 and are winning at 55%. I don’t have a system... I study the tape and wait for the line to be correct/value or pass. Mixed Martial Arts is such a new sport/ spectacle if you must that IMO the house does not hold the significant edge at least for now. I’ve been very profitable thus far using a unit based system to track my confidence and wager size over that 16 month span up 130 units sticking to MoneyLine plays 90% of the time & occasionally props. Shoot me a message if you have any interest in MMA in general or the betting style I have found to be very successful for my small amount of tracked plays. Thanks for taking the time!

Penny

Show how good you are by posting your picks ahead of time or run away. Nobody is messaging you for your secret. Here's how you do it

Lifetime winner on MMA fights.

I’ve already proven myself for 16 months with detailed write ups...I was told by the rules on this site do not advertise especially on the first post but since your asking for it... here’s my page with tracked results from a 3rd party.. you can find every wager I have made with a detailed description as to why we make the wager also it includes my average odds, wager size, bet per event, event winning % & many other metric you could use to measure success. Thanks again for responding score lifetime winner of mma fights.. I could care less weather or not you believe me that’s your own prerogative.


(Website address removed by Mod since you offer your picks for money there,) type it in and check it out. Thanks

Quote: Zcore13

Show how good you are by posting your picks ahead of time or run away. Nobody is messaging you for your secret. Here's how you do it

Lifetime winner on MMA fights.

Such a harsh welcome to the forum

You stumbled upon the wizard of vegas forum? Really?

I typed in gambling forums an here I am 😀

No one here is buying your picks. Try elsewhere.

If your a 1K bettor your up over 110K. Thanks for your input but you don’t speak for everybody. So how about you hop off my thread an go elsewhere . Thanks 👍🏻

I stand by my previous statement.

You don’t like to bet underdogs and win at a rate -110 bettors need to hit to be profitable that’s ok and your prerogative... even when the information is slapping you in the face.. however don’t speak for others. see ya buddy have a good one ✌🏻

Quote: Penny2323

You don’t like to bet underdogs and win at a rate -110 bettors need to hit to be profitable that’s ok and your prerogative... even when the information is slapping you in the face.. however don’t speak for others. see ya buddy have a good one ✌🏻

I don't think that you will be here long. To be a member in good standing here, you can't just come in talking about how well you are doing and then posting a link when someone asks about what you are doing, especially if your gig is selling you services.

Perhaps talking about what you do more and having a conversation would be the more appropriate way to be a part of this forum. It isn't a kind place for advertising systems and such.

The mods will decide how it goes, of course, but I know which side I am betting on right now...

I gave back what I was given in terms of respect that’s how the world works. I am trying to do folks a favor if you don’t see the results are worth you time don’t waste it. I’m not here to make friends I am here to help people win money. I politely explained my position an tried to provide simple information as to why you should invest your time in further reading what I’m posting and also kindly asked if anybody had any interest what so ever in MMA please chime in... but yet all I get is slight disrespect? Cmon man

And you clearly didn’t read what I said because I mention this is not some system.. I spend a lot of time on tape and point blank book makers are not doing a good job making odds for UFC fights = profit.

Zcore kind of gave you a recipe for talking about it here.

"Click below to purchase this handicapper's paid picks for $20.00
You will be able to view any more paid picks they make between now and the next event for no extra charge.
The next event is UFC Fight Night 150 (04 May, 2019, 11:15 PM GMT)"

You may not be selling them,but they seem to be for sale. Nothing wrong with that, but that isn't what people do here.

I can’t give my plays away for free on this site that wouldn’t be fair to current clients but I’m more than happy to discuss anything UFC related or any fights anybody is looking at that may need help w.. I am very good at this & have a genuine passion for the sport. If you are curious about a current match or future match or past match I will happily talk fighting all day long...

I can post this past weekends plays with the write ups just to see what I’m doing but I didn’t want to force anything down somebody’s throat I was trying to introduce myself here maybe I did not do so in the best manner.

You are trying to do US a favor by advertising the picks that you make that we can buy from you? That's so nice of you to come here and do that for US.

How about discussing your picks here? How about posting your picks here and talking with others about your thoughts about the fight here. That's what this forum is for. Not trying to get people to private message you so you can make money.


ZCore13

I would love to give pointers and help that is why I’m here.. lol I’ve just been forced to backpedal with my hands up.. I come in peace I want to help others win... I don’t need anybody to pay me nor do I expect that I am brand new here.. but we are on the same team trying to beat the book. So again if any fight is intriguing to anybody bring it up an let’s break it down. Any big fight on the horizon or something in coming up under the radar it doesn’t matter if it was/is UFC I am familiar with it. I also play on DraftKings and can give point of view from that perspective if anybody is curious. I am here to help I am here to chat fighting I can’t give away my plays but I can help break anything down for anybody just ask on forum or message. I apologize for coming across in a way that seemed entitled or disrespectful or trying to just sell...

Does anybody have a lean or thoughts on Al v Cowboy the main event this week odds are tight trending in direction of Cerrone when I last checked opened +125 seen some action bet down to +110.

Welcome, Penny. I will be at the May 18 UFC card in Rochester. If you want a conversation with the members here, then you could start by giving some of the analysis you say you are so good at. Telling us you can't because you are already selling it to others makes your value here close to zero.
So if you really want to be a member of this forum start talking about some of the upcoming fights, and your thoughts on why a particular fighter has value compared to the Vegas line. If you aren't willing to do so, don't expect to be welcomed here.

I'll throw you a softball. Who do you think is the best UFC fighter today? I'll take Khabib.

Am I the only one who thinks that the UFC is just human cockfighting?

This is fair.. I can do my best to serve both purposes I think... time will tell. That was as welcoming as the comments have been an it’s appreciated. I was just breaking down the main event your going to be seeing and I’m a little confused as to why Kevin Lee is getting so much respect ... he has been bet up to -150 which is a little crazy IMO yes he can wrestle an Yes RDA just lost twice both to wrestlers but those men are much bigger & keep in mind RDA was a big 155 pounder moved up now Kevin Lee is doing the same.. I think the size will be a factor and why Lee won’t have the same success as Colby & Usman found against RDA another factor is the cardio of Colby & Usman are both among the best that can’t be said for Kevin Lee. Personally If I make the line Rafael Dos Anos is the fav. In this fight he’s currently available @ +120 for me.

Being best can mean different things..but Ill take the question first as who is not going to lose anytime soon and I have to say the unpopular answer of Jon Jones. He has nobody to fight because he beat them all already including an all timer in D.C twice.

However I think 155 pound division in UFC is the best division in any combat sport.. loaded with talent an it’s not even close IMO.. an the man with that throne is Khabib but bc the division is Sooooo good & he has some legit competitors coming I can see him losing. So both

Quote: Penny2323

You don’t like to bet underdogs and win at a rate -110 bettors need to hit to be profitable that’s ok and your prerogative... even when the information is slapping you in the face.. however don’t speak for others. see ya buddy have a good one ✌🏻

I would be willing to pay a lot of money for that type of success. Like up to $50,000 if you can continue at this same rate. Would you be willing to put up just a small fraction of that ($5,000 perhaps) in escrow that you would pay out if you can't repeat 55% wins at an average of +115 or higher (for at least $110,000 in profits for a $1,000 bettor) over the next 160 bets? I'm sure you think there is a better than 10% chance your past results are repeatable.

Quote: Penny2323

I gave back what I was given in terms of respect that’s how the world works.

You're a low level con artist and you're targeting the members of the forum with your idiotic scam.

You can't win at sports betting or anything else, so instead of making an honest income some other way, you try to cheat people who are even dumber than you are.

Why should that warrant respect?

IDK how this isn't an insta-ban. The guy is trying to defraud forum members. It would really suck if someone fell for it and lost a lot of money.

I think it's a bit much to call him a scam artist, cheat and fraud. Lots of people sell their picks via online betting sites. The only issue I had was coming here to "help" us and soliciting private messages.

I love talking MMA. I was one of 75,000 people to order UFC 1. I've been to 2 pay per view events live. One in Las Vegas and 1 in Phoenix. I'll try and do another next year.

Penny, I'll get back to you on the fight you mentioned in the morning. I agree with you that Jon Jones, barring a lucky punch, is unbeatable at light heavyweight. Heavyweight might be a different story though. I think Cain in his prime and maybe a few others beat him at heavyweight.


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

Lots of people sell their picks via online betting sites.

And,unless they charge big money and the lines move 20 seconds after picks are released they are all frauds.

Also there is no such thing as a legit third party monitoring service that tracks tout picks. It's just part of the scam.

I'll post a rundown on why 100% of these guys are con artists later. Then I can cut and paste it next time

Quote: Rigondeaux

And,unless they charge big money and the lines move 20 seconds after picks are released they are all frauds.

Also there is no such thing as a legit third party monitoring service that tracks tout picks. It's just part of the scam.

I'll post a rundown on why 100% of these guys are con artists later. Then I can cut and paste it next time

The sites I'm talking about are not professional touts. I know all about their scams. Some sites are just regular people making picks and if they prove to be abnormally good at something, people can choose to pay for a pick on a game by game basis. It's more of a contest against others mostly, because only a VERY small percentage of people will ever get a paid pick. The website monitors all picks and posts the results of the picks after the event.

www.betmma.tips is one.


ZCore13

Quote: Rigondeaux

You're a low level con artist and you're targeting the members of the forum with your idiotic scam.

You can't win at sports betting or anything else, so instead of making an honest income some other way, you try to cheat people who are even dumber than you are.

Why should that warrant respect?

IDK how this isn't an insta-ban. The guy is trying to defraud forum members. It would really suck if someone fell for it and lost a lot of money.

I'm just seeing this thread, sorry. I'm not sure which other mod removed the link rather than banning the unauthorized advertising. Let me check into that.

I'm kind of on the fence, based on subsequent posts. It's a betting area that we seldom, if ever discuss, but there are at least a few people who follow the sport.

If ANYONE gets a solicitation by PM or one shows up in this thread, now that the OP seems to understand that's unwelcome, it will be a nuke. Or if I find out that there's been stuff going on I'm not currently aware of, it will be a nuke. But right now, on a talk-only basis, I'm inclined to learn more.

I have to be economical with my posting I only get 10 posts per day being a newbie.. to answer posts.. please read the entire post (especially you Rig) before you rip my throat out.. thanks in advance. If you still don’t care for my opinion kindly don’t read don’t message and I will eventually stop posting. Thanks

Tom I would love an opportunity to potentially make that kind of cash however I CAN NOT GTD I’ll bet exactly +115 over 160 bets & I also can’t GTD I’ll win exactly 55% either as I have the past 16 months.. what I can GTD is I will continue to wager + money much more often than not leading us to averaging + money and give us our best opportunity to win over 50%... ultimately leading us to profit. We are able to do this because the book makers are doing such a poor job lining the will get corrected at some point that I’m certain of that’s what casinos do..

As for a little about me why do I sell picks? Could it not be more apparent? Being completely honest I don’t have a lot of money and you can’t make REAL money if you don’t have REAL money to comfortably wager an afford to lose no matter how good you are at small unit size aren’t putting a dent at the books... Which is the main reason for doing this in the first place & I don’t charge bizarre amounts for folks to purchase my picks bc I would like more than just a few paid guys to buy them...I’ve started selling the picks in Jan of this year and I’ve amassed over 20 subscribers on average per event... every single person who has bought my picks has come back each an every week. I have established relationships an trust with all my buyers at this point I used to be questioned now they can’t bet soon enough and either it’s pure Coincidence or I am changing the value of these lines every week at least temporarily until other sharp money comes in.

I’m not asking for anybody to buy my picks... the information was posted to show I indeed have been getting my results tracked third party... I am looking to come on here talk mixed martial arts & provide all of you as much info as I can to help you guys win and then after trust has been established would I like for others to buy my picks absolutely but im not pushing that and I will continue to post things like what I posted on RDA v Kevin Lee JUST ASK! I won’t go out of my way to give a play away I have 25 other people paying me for but I will happily break the fights down and steer folks away from what I consider a bad bet or a trap. Kinda like JaCare -200 last week we bet Jack +160 was ridiculous for a guy of Hermansson caliber and how his style matched up w JaCare.

My results speak for themselves and I expect them to continue this is all I do at this point I spend over 40 hours a week studying MMA.. interviews..blogs..anything helpful I can get my hands on and lots and lots and lots of tape on previous fights.. I have no other endeavors this is it.. this is what I want to do an love to do so yes I’m trying to monetize it.. but how many other “touts” will put you up over 25 Units profit in 3 months an then lose one night an give the next for free... nobody does but me. I expect those who invest in me to make money if we’re not making money I’m not doing my job.

Lastly for Rig.. 3 out of 4 bets I tipped this week alone changed by 20 cents within 24 hours of me tipping es that make me legit now to you... joke. and if you don’t believe me go to it monitors every mma line at all the books....and Ill happily show you the emails that directly correspond with line movement I sent to my clients who got the better line!!! & you call me scum bag you call me fraud you call me con.. when you took zero time to do your research.. if you had you would know I provide detailed write ups and I make sure all of my clients get the bet in before I even place it so they get the proper number!!! I can’t help that this guy has had poor experiences w touts and I can’t help that 90% of touts are assholes and do take advantage of others.. that ant me bro.. that ant me.

I’m done promoting & talking of myself.. hopefully I don’t get banned...but I love an know UFC and when your good enough at something you gotta get paid for is is what I do and if anybody cares to have any info on any bout or anything related PLEASE JUST ASK...

Quote: Penny2323

I have to be economical with my posting I only get 10 posts per day being a newbie.. to answer posts.. please read the entire post (especially you Rig) before you rip my throat out.. thanks in advance. If you still don’t care for my opinion kindly don’t read don’t message and I will eventually stop posting. Thanks

Tom I would love an opportunity to potentially make that kind of cash however I CAN NOT GTD I’ll bet exactly +115 over 160 bets & I also can’t GTD I’ll win exactly 55% either as I have the past 16 months.. what I can GTD is I will continue to wager + money much more often than not leading us to averaging + money and give us our best opportunity to win over 50%... ultimately leading us to profit. We are able to do this because the book makers are doing such a poor job lining the will get corrected at some point that I’m certain of that’s what casinos do..

As for a little about me why do I sell picks? Could it not be more apparent? Being completely honest I don’t have a lot of money and you can’t make REAL money if you don’t have REAL money to comfortably wager an afford to lose no matter how good you are at small unit size aren’t putting a dent at the books... Which is the main reason for doing this in the first place & I don’t charge bizarre amounts for folks to purchase my picks bc I would like more than just a few paid guys to buy them...I’ve started selling the picks in Jan of this year and I’ve amassed over 20 subscribers on average per event... every single person who has bought my picks has come back each an every week. I have established relationships an trust with all my buyers at this point I used to be questioned now they can’t bet soon enough and either it’s pure Coincidence or I am changing the value of these lines every week at least temporarily until other sharp money comes in.

I’m not asking for anybody to buy my picks... the information was posted to show I indeed have been getting my results tracked third party... I am looking to come on here talk mixed martial arts & provide all of you as much info as I can to help you guys win and then after trust has been established would I like for others to buy my picks absolutely but im not pushing that and I will continue to post things like what I posted on RDA v Kevin Lee JUST ASK! I won’t go out of my way to give a play away I have 25 other people paying me for but I will happily break the fights down and steer folks away from what I consider a bad bet or a trap. Kinda like JaCare -200 last week we bet Jack +160 was ridiculous for a guy of Hermansson caliber and how his style matched up w JaCare.

My results speak for themselves and I expect them to continue this is all I do at this point I spend over 40 hours a week studying MMA.. interviews..blogs..anything helpful I can get my hands on and lots and lots and lots of tape on previous fights.. I have no other endeavors this is it.. this is what I want to do an love to do so yes I’m trying to monetize it.. but how many other “touts” will put you up over 25 Units profit in 3 months an then lose one night an give the next for free... nobody does but me. I expect those who invest in me to make money if we’re not making money I’m not doing my job.

Lastly for Rig.. 3 out of 4 bets I tipped this week alone changed by 20 cents within 24 hours of me tipping es that make me legit now to you... joke. and if you don’t believe me go to it monitors every mma line at all the books....and Ill happily show you the emails that directly correspond with line movement I sent to my clients who got the better line!!! & you call me scum bag you call me fraud you call me con.. when you took zero time to do your research.. if you had you would know I provide detailed write ups and I make sure all of my clients get the bet in before I even place it so they get the proper number!!! I can’t help that this guy has had poor experiences w touts and I can’t help that 90% of touts are assholes and do take advantage of others.. that ant me bro.. that ant me.

I’m done promoting & talking of myself.. hopefully I don’t get banned...but I love an know UFC and when your good enough at something you gotta get paid for is is what I do and if anybody cares to have any info on any bout or anything related PLEASE JUST ASK...

I think you actually are here MAINLY to monetize your picks, hoping that someone will become a "client". That being said, we are all big boys and girls here and as long as you don't post your link, or try via PM to snag someone, I think you can stay here with discussion like you did about the Lee fight, or the Hermannson fight.

I am NO expert, and have also noticed what I considered lines that were off. It is not inconceivable that they sometimes can be exploitable. Good luck!

Quote: Penny2323

As for a little about me why do I sell picks? Could it not be more apparent? Being completely honest I don’t have a lot of money

Aaaaand, I stopped reading after that.


I would want to know someone is rolling in it using their own picks before I was willing to take on their picks. Anyone good enough with legit system wouldn't want anything to do with selling their picks. They would be doing everything and anything they could to get as much money down for themselves as possible using their own picks.

$100 per unit +138 units = $13,800. Again it takes REAL $ to profit REAL $.. I’m fully aware my bankroll is insignificant in comparison to any legitimate gambler but that’s what I have to work with at this point in time & can comfortably wager. I have action on every bet I’ve ever tipped with tickets to back it.

OK. Why these people are 100% FOS.

1)Sports betting edges are small. Your expected profit on a $100 bet could be $2, and that would be pretty good. Now, what if you paid even $5 for that pick? Oops, now you're losing $3. And why would such a great pick be only $5? Leading us to...

2) The tout has a license to print money and he wants to... sell it to you for peanuts? OP says following his recent picks would have won a $1000 bettor a profit of 6 figures. Why not just try to get more money down, or expand in other ways? If it is possible for you to make a profit on his picks, that means he is selling them for less than they are worth. Why?

3)You probably won't be able to get the lines the tout suggests. Many times, they will be phony. But if the lines did exist, they should have moved when our tout bet them himself, especially because he is such a big winner. If that somehow doesn't happen, the lines should move soon after the picks are released as others bet them.. The times you do get his line, the picks will be weaker because it means the larger part of the market is on the opposite side. Even if you charge nothing, and honestly try to share picks with someone, it's hard to help them much.

4)If your tout is really a winning bettor, he will have a ton of outs. Will you have access to them? If not, you won't be able to make many of the bets.

5)Even on the 18 yos in a row chance that your tout has an edge, he could lose it overnight. Happens to stock pickers, poker players and everyone else. The bookies or other players could identify his edge and incorporate it into sharper lines. He could go through a divorce or develop a substance issue. He could become complacent after winning, and now making money win or lose from selling picks. He could (very easily) just be a case of survivorship bias: 10,000 people have been making picks and he is the one who ran best. Like people who win the Hilton contest, then sell picks the next year. Now you're paying to make -ev picks, which is a disaster.

6) Whenever these people are tracked by a real, honest outside party like Computer Bob, they prove to be losers. Here is a great deadspinn article about how RJ bell, fezik, Teddy Covers, and many other "sports betting experts" can never beat a coinflip whenever their picks are tracked honestly.

https://deadspin.com/how-america-s-favorite-sports-betting-expert-turned-a-s-1782438574

On the whole, touts have historically proven to be about as effective as x-ray specs, investment opportunities from Nigerian princes and transforming lead into gold.

Quote: Penny2323

$100 per unit +138 units = $13,800. Again it takes REAL $ to profit REAL $.. I’m fully aware my bankroll is insignificant in comparison to any legitimate gambler but that’s what I have to work with at this point in time & can comfortably wager. I have action on every bet I’ve ever tipped with tickets to back it.

Let's give you the benefit of the doubt. Sometimes it is hard to make the leap to having enough BR to justify the time spent handicapping. Here are some options.

1) Share your picks with a friend or family member who has a few bucks. Send them a screen cap of every bet you make the minute you make it, till they want to bankroll your picks in exchange for a share of the profits.

2) Post your picks for free on forums like this one and use that to build relationships. Many moons ago, I handicapped boxing, mainly for fun. $500 was a big bet for my BR. I was a winner, but it took me several hours to make one bet, so my hourly was like min wage. I posted all my picks on SBR and made friends with people who taught me a lot because I'd made them money.

3) Make building a BR your mission. Live in a cheaper place. Cancel your cable. Use your phone for internet. Deliver food on your day off. Eat cheaply. Never withdraw your sports winnings, only add to your BR. Bonus whore all the sites. Do whatever it takes to get $20k together and go from there.

4) Realize that when you start selling picks, you will lose the respect of most people and they won't want to become involved with you.

Your not wrong. I can’t disagree again probably 97% touts are scamming and there are many in MMA community who make me sick & I’m shocked they have folks paying them. Easy for me to say harder to prove but I’m not one of these guys.. and honestly if I had a bigger bankroll your right again the info I have and work I do would be mine and mine alone... that’s unfortunately not the case for me.

I’m not onto anything crazy or spectacular here bottom line is even when the books do get the lines right in MMA the small amount of money that will change lines plays.. if you put down 5K on a football game or basketball game I would assume the line wouldn’t even budge and if it did would be minimal.. if you throw 5K on a fight that line is moving and moving significantly.. I have moved a line .15 off a $350 bet so the fact that money that isn’t sharp money can move these lines is another factor in why I am able to get good numbers almost every single week.

I’ll put my main event tip out here for this week... main event is Donald Cerrone v Al Iaquinta..
Al is coming into this bout with some momentum and personally I feel it’s a bit unwarranted an overhyped which I could be wrong... he lost against Khabib in what was a late replacement fight about a year ago. Beat Kevin Lee in December and people are feeling really good about him outside of that he’s done nothing recently and is very inactive.
Cerrone could not be more opposite in terms of his activity and not only is he active but he’s fighting the best guys on the planet every night and when he takes even the slightest step down in competition he is finishing these guys.. cowboy hasn’t given me a reason to use his age against him at this point and he also has looked and sounded extremely motivated for his last few bouts since he had the birth of his first child.. sounding like a completely different man to be honest.
Donald is the bigger man fighting at 170 until recently coming back to his stomping ground at 155... Al could arguably make 145 pounds he will be a bit smaller than Cowboy.
On the feet I give the boxing edge to Al if Al can keep this fight a boxing contest and pressure Cerrone with his hands then it’s going to be a bad night for cowboy. Overall on the feet I do favor Cowboy as the more complete striker he is going to want to keep this fight at a kicking distance to use his kicking game and keep Al off balance to aid his boxing.
In the clinch cowboy is bigger stronger man an he has more skills capable of throwing dangerous knees.. elbows... from this position favor cowboy again.
On the floor no question Donald is the superior grappler and if this fight hits the mat an they have grappling exchanges I fully expect Cerrone to submit Al.
Cardio is typically where Al has an advantage over his opponents unfortunately for him Cerrone also has a great gas tank and the volume to back to equal Als output.

My odds for this fight with all things considered is Cerrone -135 puts him winning this fight around 57% of the time. (When I make odds I look at worse case scenario giving the opponent a little more credit than deserved for a little extra safety.)

I tipped and bet Donald Cerrone ML 1.5 Units @ +125 his current price ranges from +110 to -105 so there is still some value based on the line I have set for Cerrone.

Quote: Penny2323

Your not wrong. I can’t disagree again probably 97% touts are scamming and there are many in MMA community who make me sick & I’m shocked they have folks paying them. Easy for me to say harder to prove but I’m not one of these guys.. and honestly if I had a bigger bankroll your right again the info I have and work I do would be mine and mine alone... that’s unfortunately not the case for me.

I’m not onto anything crazy or spectacular here bottom line is even when the books do get the lines right in MMA the small amount of money that will change lines plays.. if you put down 5K on a football game or basketball game I would assume the line wouldn’t even budge and if it did would be minimal.. if you throw 5K on a fight that line is moving and moving significantly.. I have moved a line .15 off a $350 bet so the fact that money that isn’t sharp money can move these lines is another factor in why I am able to get good numbers almost every single week.

I’ll put my main event tip out here for this week... main event is Donald Cerrone v Al Iaquinta..
Al is coming into this bout with some momentum and personally I feel it’s a bit unwarranted an overhyped which I could be wrong... he lost against Khabib in what was a late replacement fight about a year ago. Beat Kevin Lee in December and people are feeling really good about him outside of that he’s done nothing recently and is very inactive.
Cerrone could not be more opposite in terms of his activity and not only is he active but he’s fighting the best guys on the planet every night and when he takes even the slightest step down in competition he is finishing these guys.. cowboy hasn’t given me a reason to use his age against him at this point and he also has looked and sounded extremely motivated for his last few bouts since he had the birth of his first child.. sounding like a completely different man to be honest.
Donald is the bigger man fighting at 170 until recently coming back to his stomping ground at 155... Al could arguably make 145 pounds he will be a bit smaller than Cowboy.
On the feet I give the boxing edge to Al if Al can keep this fight a boxing contest and pressure Cerrone with his hands then it’s going to be a bad night for cowboy. Overall on the feet I do favor Cowboy as the more complete striker he is going to want to keep this fight at a kicking distance to use his kicking game and keep Al off balance to aid his boxing.
In the clinch cowboy is bigger stronger man an he has more skills capable of throwing dangerous knees.. elbows... from this position favor cowboy again.
On the floor no question Donald is the superior grappler and if this fight hits the mat an they have grappling exchanges I fully expect Cerrone to submit Al.
Cardio is typically where Al has an advantage over his opponents unfortunately for him Cerrone also has a great gas tank and the volume to back to equal Als output.

My odds for this fight with all things considered is Cerrone -135 puts him winning this fight around 57% of the time. (When I make odds I look at worse case scenario giving the opponent a little more credit than deserved for a little extra safety.)

I tipped and bet Donald Cerrone ML 1.5 Units @ +125 his current price ranges from +110 to -105 so there is still some value based on the line I have set for Cerrone.

I agree on Cerrone. I'd take him all day as an underdog. Al is 2-1 over the last 4 years, beating 2 mid level UFC fighters. Cerrone has fought 12 times during that same time, with most of them being top 10 fighters. Although only 8-5 in those fights, he should be bigger and stronger than Al at lightweight. The only way I see Al winning is by decision. Cerrone can win by head kick, submission or decision.


ZCore13

Couldn’t agree more & those losses tho..

Leon Edwards - who IMO is the most underrated 170 pound fighter on the planet and if he isn’t fighting Colby or Usman or Askren he is a money train literally nobody will beat him at 170 he is so good & so well rounded and Cowboy fought dude super tough 5 rounds. This is the fight people started thinking Cowboy lost it bc Leon isn’t a house hold name they are mistaken Leon is elite.

Jorge Masvidal- top five at 170 currently & lifelong top 10 155 pounder

Robbie Lawler- enough said & I thought Cowboy won that fight was a bad decision.

Darren Till- was # 1 contender at 170 until Masvidal just KOed him although a bit over rated... this was a horrible fight to take..he fought a very hard fight against Lawler literally less than 2 months before he took this fight against a 200 pound Till.

RDA- one of the best 155ers skill for skill and was a monster at the division now he fights 170 an honestly he just has cowboys number. Nothing to be ashamed of RDA is elite.

Moral of story this is just another fight for cowboy and it’s the biggest fight of Als life all pressure on Al here the smaller and far less experienced and tenured fighter. If I were to grade the strength of schedule meaning who they fought in their career I would give Cowboy an A+ and Al a C-. Al has had 3 fights that were big.. Khabib who totally dominated Al winning almost all rounds easily an 10-8 on a few was never in danger. Masvidal who he beat and IMO was a bad decision that prolly should have went in Masvidal favor and Kevin Lee who just isn’t a good striker and always gasses.. Al strong suit as I mentioned is his gas tank he did lose the early rounds to Lee.

Quote: Rigondeaux

Use your phone for internet]

Only a retarded neanderthal would live that way.

Go somewhere else. Trolls aren’t welcome. Thanks

Quote: Lovecomps

Am I the only one who thinks that the UFC is just human cockfighting?

Yes.

Quote: Penny2323

You don’t like to bet underdogs and win at a rate -110 bettors need to hit to be profitable that’s ok and your prerogative... even when the information is slapping you in the face.. however don’t speak for others. see ya buddy have a good one ✌🏻

Can you update me on how many members here bought your picks?

Zero members here have bought my picks or even asked an that’s just fine. I did post two very good plays for you guys Cerrone & Dos Anos. Cerrone for this weekend & Dos Anos May 18 I believe. Both underdogs at most spots.

Quote: Penny2323

Zero members here have bought my picks or even asked an that’s just fine. I did post two very good plays for you guys Cerrone & Dos Anos. Cerrone for this weekend & Dos Anos May 18 I believe. Both underdogs at most spots.

I am anything but a 'sharp' MMA bettor. Bad news for you! I agree with your analysis of AI/DC fight! I would have made DC the favorite over what I've seen from them the past year or two. RDA on the other hand has looked great, and looked terrible. No way for me to guess on him.

Quote: AxelWolf

Only a retarded neanderthal would live that way.

I know you mean to be funny, but once again you're on/over the line. Last warning before suspension. I already took the hit for not giving you a suspension last week.

I understand what you mean about RDA but I would credit that trend to his opponents rather than hold it against him.. the last two fights he hasn’t looked great but combine both of his opponents record Colby, Usman they are combined 28-2. The fight was 48-47 unam against Colby so he fought him tough and I know Lee isn’t as good of a wrestler as Colby or as us the gas tank issue for Lee & on the feet RDA is better than Lee. I think if he loses it will be early but i think RDA finishes Kevin Lee round 3-4.

Well, we hit that one. Good underdog play. That was the only fight I bet on the card.


ZCore13

Very happy to hear this!! 4-0 on the night I had Bhullar, Sanchez , Brunson , Cowboy. I am telling you guys play RDA while he is underdog thanks for not banning my post. Onto next week

Quote: Penny2323

Very happy to hear this!! 4-0 on the night I had Bhullar, Sanchez , Brunson , Cowboy. I am telling you guys play RDA while he is underdog thanks for not banning my post. Onto next week

Good pick on Cerrone (by me!) ..... and you! I am not saying you did not pick the other 3 as well. Who knows?

But let's be honest here..... If Bhullar, Sanchez, and Brunson all lost, would your post have been....

A. I nailed Cerrone!

or

B. I nailed Cerrone, but blew it on the other 3 fights. 1-3 sucks....


I'm betting "A".

The way you are posting now there is no reason at all to ban you. We can deconstruct your posts, like I did, but keep on posting!

I believe in being transparent... there is no reason to lie if somebody really wants to know how I did they will find out... I’m 9-1 on my last 10 plays.. 7 of them being underdogs 👍🏻 I’ll try to post some for this week if I can but this card doesn’t have a lot of opportunities it’s looking as of now.

Quote: SOOPOO

Good pick on Cerrone (by me!) ..... and you! I am not saying you did not pick the other 3 as well. Who knows?

But let's be honest here..... If Bhullar, Sanchez, and Brunson all lost, would your post have been....

A. I nailed Cerrone!

or

B. I nailed Cerrone, but blew it on the other 3 fights. 1-3 sucks....


I'm betting "A".

The way you are posting now there is no reason at all to ban you. We can deconstruct your posts, like I did, but keep on posting!

You can win money winning one out of four fights.Depends on the amounts. I went 2 for 3 last week, but lost my big bet so while my winning percentage was great at 66%, I lost almost 80% percent of the money wagered.

Quote: Penny2323

I believe in being transparent... there is no reason to lie if somebody really wants to know how I did they will find out... I’m 9-1 on my last 10 plays.. 7 of them being underdogs 👍🏻 I’ll try to post some for this week if I can but this card doesn’t have a lot of opportunities it’s looking as of now.

Who were you wrong on?
9-1 with 7 dogs and 3 faves is really quite a feat!

How much and what odds did you bet on Cerrone?

Last 11 plays 9-2
Cerrone +125
Brunson +105
Sanchez -140
Bhullar +120
Hermannson +155
Perry +170
Glover +130
Sandhagen +130
Mike Davis +185 (loser)
Arman Tsarukyan +375 (loser)
Poirier +200

I ended up putting $300 total on Cerrone. $150 +125 & the rest +105.

Rafael Dos Anos line has also changed I tipped it here for you guys +125 it’s since been hit can be found -105 to +110. Still value if he’s an underdog IMO.

You can find every single bet I ever placed over last 17 months with details on why we bet them here.. for third party verification.

(Link removed by Mod. No links to sites where you make money.)