Zcore13's Blog
UFC 194
Let me start by saying this is an amazing fight card. It might be one of the best all around cards in years and the best 2 fight co-main events as well. Besides Aldo, McGregor, Rockhold and Weidman, the other fights on the main card are full of big names. If you haven't seen a UFC fight card before or are on the fence about this one, this is the one to watch.I come in at $335 for the year and a lucky spinning back kick away from +$885. And the co-main event tonight could go 0-2 for me just as easy as 2-0. These are VERY close match-ups and the highest level of fighters anywhere in the world.
Aldo vs McGregor
Aldo is coming off a 14 month layoff due to injury. Prior to that he had won his last 18 straight fights over 8 1.2 years. This man was the best of the best. McGregor has won 13 in a row, but not against nearly the competition that Aldo faced just before his injury. Aldo took out major opponents equal to McGregor in speed and strength, such as Faber, Mendes, Edgar, Florian and Gamburyan. McGregor is a little taller and will almost definitely start the fight boxing from the outside. If Aldo is now 100%, which I expect him to be and has faced top competition during training, which I also expect he did, I think Aldo has the skills to take this one. As I mentioned above, this could go either way, but I see Aldo catching McGregor as he comes in and ending this one. His kicks are deadly and may play a role. McGregor is for real. He can beat anyone in this division or even one division higher, but if Aldo is still at his best, nobody beats Aldo.
Take Aldo -109 (Pinnacle) over McGregor
Weidman vs. Rockhold
Chris Weidman is well known for slaying the beast that was Anderson Silva. He did this without ever fighting anyone even really close to that skill level during his MMA career. But starting with Silva and then in his two defenses since against Belfort and Machida, he has shown he belongs where he is holding the belt. Rockhold is an animal. He hasn't needed even a round and a half to finish each of his last 4 fights. Two first round finishes and two second round finishes against top notch competition. The last two won him performance of the night bonuses. I think this fight goes to the ground, but I don't know if Rockhold can keep Weidman, the All-American college wrestler, down for long. As shown by the odds, it's another one that can go either way, but I think Weidman's will to win and power in his fists give him the victory.
Take Weidman -145 (5dimes) over Rockhold
UFC Fight Night 79 - Henderson vs Masvidal
I didn't like any of the fights in UFC 192, including either of the main event fighters Rousey or Holm. That fight scared the heck out of me. Classic boxer vs bully. Leanard vs Duran, Tyson vs Douglas, Ali vs Frazier, etc etc.As for UFC Fight Night 79, there are really only top notch fights on the card. The main event of Henderson vs Masdival and the pre-main event of Waters vs Kim. The odds don't agree with me on both, but I think both are going to be dominant wins.
Henderson vs Masvidal
Masvidal loses every time he faces a top tier fighter. He beats the guys he should and can't beat the cream of the crop. That won't change here because Henderson is part of the cream. Henderson did come in heavier than I expected, which could play a role if the fight goes long, but I think he should have enough of a lead built up to give away a 5th round if needed. It could be a close battle though.
Henderson -250 (5dimes) vs Masvidal +230 (5dimes). I'll take Henderson all day even though Mesvidal has been the favorite in his last 5 straight fights and winning 4 of his last 5.
Waters vs Kim
Dominick Waters is a decent fighter but I don't think he should even be in this fight. Dong Hyun Kim is a really, really tough fighter. Kim has only fought once since his knockout loss to Tyron Woodley in August of 2014, winning by submission in May of this year. Woodley has the skills to knockout anyone in the division, so Kim being a victim is not all that hurtful. Kim is in another world compared to Waters and should take this one easily.
Waters +600 (5dimes) vs Kim -725 (Bookmaker). Lay the 725 and take Kim!
Comments
I came in at +$135 for the year. Had these fight pretty pegged and won $100 on each. Now +$335.
UFC 192 Cormier vs Gufstafsson
After a 1-1 performance (with a lucky spinning back kick to get my defeat) in my last post I fell to $65 for 2015. Here's my analysis for UFC 192For the main event I have a little combination that I think makes this bet impossible to lose:
Cormier -245 (5dimes) over Gustafssson
AND Gustafsson +700 (sportsint) Gustafsson wins by TKO or KO
I think the fight only goes two ways. Cormier avoids the knockout on his way in for takedowns or Cormier gets nailed on his way in and Gustafsson takes him out. I don't see any possible way Gustafsson out performs Cormier on the ground and aside from a lucky punch, I don't see any way Cormier out boxes Gustafsson on the feet. The way I think it's going to go is Cormier takes Gustafsson down and controls him on the ground. Gustafsson is very tall and strong, so he may be able to escape, especially early in the fight. But if he does escape early on that should stop happening as the fight progresses. Bet $490 to win $200 on Cormier, but hedge with a $100 bet to win $700 on Gustafsson by KO/TKO. Win $100 total if Cormier gets the win. Win $210 if Gustafsson gets the KO/TKO. Lose $590 if by some miracle Gustafsson can keep the fight on the feet almost the entire fight and win in a 5 round decision.
Evans -130 (5dimes) over Bader
Although he hasn't fought in almost 2 years, Rashad Evens is easily one of the most talented fighters in the sport. He can punch, he can go the distance and he has great defense. The last feature is what makes him so difficult to beat. You just can't hit the guy solid and he's tough to keep on the ground. Bader is going to want to fight on his feet and Evans is going to be tough to hit. These guys are both top notch fighters and they could split 10 fights if they fought that many times, but I like Even's speed and defense in this one and it should take him to a decision victory.
Benavidez -307 (Pinnacle) over Bagaitinov
Joseph Benavidez is an animal. He not only doesn't lose very often (his last loss was to champion Demetrious Johnson 4 fights ago), he doesn't even lose rounds very often. Since his last loss against the champion he has won every round he has fought. Bagiaitinov is coming off of a loss in his last fight against the same Demetrious Johnson about 15 months ago. But he has shown very little dominance in any of his fights, most of which are against lesser competition. He barely won the fight before his last to a 26-7 fighter. Before that, another 1 point win against a 10-5 fighter. Benavidez dominates this fight in a line that is way too low for the skills of each fighter.
Comments
Thanks. Just logged on looking for your remarks.
I know it's early, and you take one week at a time.....but what is your first impression of:
Conor McGregor - 180 vs Jose Aldo +130 on December 13th? I got a "bad impression" of McGregor during this TV series where he is the "coach" etc.. I didn't like his demeanor and attitude. I guess he can back it up for the most part, but I also read Jose Aldo is a tough guy.
McGregor is loud, obnoxious, cocky and likes to instigate but he can back it all up. My early thoughts are Aldo in a slight upset because Connor excels at beating fighters that want to come straight at him and brawl and has not fought the talent level Aldo has. Aldo will not just stand in front of him. But I need to look at some more stuff and it's too early for me with 2 months to go before the fight to see some of their training footage and camp notes.
Well, not to bad this weekend. I had the flow of all of the fights pretty much nailed. Benavidez was a level better than his opponent and won every round. Evans - Bader was really close. I think the 2 year layoff hurt Evans, but I still think they might split 10 fights. Bader won it though. And Cormier outworked Gufstafson. I thought it was a horrible move to stop going for takedowns and it made the fight closer than it should have been. I think he could have taken him down every round and won it easily.
+$100 on Benavides
-$130 on Evans
+$100 on the combination bets on the Cormier/Gufstafsson fight
+$70 for the night and now +$135 for the year.
PS I'm still upset about the Mousasi loss. That was a -$500 and I think he is the better fighter!
Yes, you do seem to have fight predictions and flow figured out, but that doesn't always lead to the results they dictate.
Ha. That's why they have odds. Easy money without those. Stupid Mousasi! :)
" Evans - Bader was really close. I think the 2 year layoff hurt Evans, but I still think they might split 10 fights. Bader won it though. "
I finally got this downloaded and watched this fight with interest. I didn't see it the way you did. Evans looked very flat, couldn't hit Bader, was slow, and overall just very lack luster. I don't understand how you considered it "very close"? With that said, I don't recall what the judges said score wise so won't comment further.
Yeah, all the judges had it 30-27 Bader. I didn't mean the fight could have gone either way. I just meant the rounds were close and I think if Evans had not had a 2 year layoff things could have been even more interesting. I don't see Bader being a threat to any well rounded fighter that can take it to the ground.
UFC Fight Night 75
A couple of pretty good fights tonight. Here are my predictions for the fights. I'll update the results by editing this post afterwards.Josh Barnett -292 (Bookmaker.com) over Roy Nelson. Roy Nelson is 1-4 in his last 5 fights. Now he never gets an easy fight, so losing a few fights is not the worst thing, but he can't compete with higher level fighters. Josh Barnett is only 3-2 in his last 5, including a 1:00 knockout loss to Travis Browne in hist last fight in December 2013 (yes, almost 2 years ago), but he brings something to the table that most Roy Nelson opponents don't and that's a submission game. Roy usually only fights stand up boxers that will trade with him. I think Josh will do that a little, but only to set up a take down attempt. If Roy doesn't catch him coming in, this one should be all Josh Barnett. Take Barnett.
Gerard Mousasi -500 (Bovada.com) over Uriah Hall. Uriah hall is very talented. He has the skills to be a contender. The problem is that he has not fought the caliber of fighters Mousasi has or the caliber of fighter Mousasi is. Could this be his coming out party? Maybe. He keeps getting better and better. Top notch fighters have to get their first big win sometime. But I don't think tonight is the time. Unlike the main event where I think the odds are too low for what they should be. I think the odds are too high for Mousasi on this one, but I still think he will win. Take Mousasi.
I don't like any of the other fights and all in all the card is pretty weak, as can be seen by the headliners being 1-4 and 3-2 in their last 5 fights. Not much championship quality tonight, but most fights should be pretty competitive.
Comments
Well, I was pretty accurate on my analysis. Just a little off on if Uriah Hall was ready for this type of competition. He lost the first round, but came through in the second. In the main event, Roy Nelson looked terrible. Fat, slow and basically un motivated. Dana White loves him, but his career is over.
I watched the replay, not knowing the results. You did make very good predictions. While Uriah Hall won on that "lucky" kick more so than anything else. Mousasi was obviously the better fighter and very impressive despite losing via the knock out. Hall looked very tough and in shape, but this Mousasi guy just took it to him until of of course, that lucky kick. Good analysis. I hope you bring us some information on this weekends fight card.
I'll be adding my analyses tomorrow (Friday) for the Saturday event.
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MMA FIGHTS AND PREDICTIONS
So after 5 years, 9 months and 9 days I finally figured out how I might use the blogging feature here. I have always LOVED boxing and then over the last 20 years UFC and MMA in general. When I was about 12 I started keeping track of every fight on paper and who I though would win. No odds at that time and only Championship fights or highly ranked fighters. They would be the only ones in the newspaper or shown on TV.It started with James Scott from Rahway State Prison on ABC Wide World of Sports, then to Dwight Braxton (later Dwight Muhammad Qawi), Ray Boom Boom Mancini, Danny Little Red Lopez, Aaron Prior, Mike Weaver and many more. And of course all the top fighters like Leonard, Hearns, Duran, Hagler, Arguello, Holmes, Holyfield, etc, etc. I saw Leonard-Hearns on a pay station called OnTV. I saw Leonard-Hagler on closed curcuit tv at Arizona State University's Basketball court with about a thousand other people. I saw Pinklon Thomas, Greg Page, James Bone Crusher Smith, Mitch Blood Green and a few others fight in Las Vegas. But, unfortunately, at some point I lost all my predictions. They were all on paper and probably just got trashed when I moved out or got married or something.
When the UFC came around, I was one of 86,000 in the world to pay for UFC 1 on pay per view (UFC 189 recently had 1,000,000). After a few years of watching UFC shows and learning about where these people came from (most had no real mma skills), I knew more than anyone I knew about UFC. I was really close to contacting my local sports talk radio show and offering to be their UFC expert and reporting from events if they would pay my expenses to go to them. I knew one of the sports talk radio guys and asked him what he thought and he said "why would anyone want to know about those fights?" so I gave up my thoughts of getting into UFC analyses.
But, for the last 10 years or so I've been keeping track of my MMA predictions. I don't pick every fight. I pick fights I feel like I am pretty certain on the outcome. If I'm hesitating, I don't pick it. If the odds for a fighter are -500 and I don't think they would win at least 6 out of 10 fights against that opponent, I'll pick the other way (if I like those odds) or just not pick at all. Some I have wagered on with real money if I was in Nevada at the time. Most no actual money being traded, but still a record of my picks and a "fake" money total. I will post my picks in comments below and then update this post with results. So without further adieu, my picks for 2015...
2015 Total - +$465 (Had a bad run early and a good run recently)
UFC 191
D. Johnson -560 over J. Dodson - +$100
A, Arvloski -155 over F. Mir - +$100
UFC Fight Night 73
G, Teixeira +110 over O. St. Preux - +110
UFC 190
R. Rousey -1700 over B. Correia - +100
UFC on Fox 16
E. Barbosa -140 over P. Felder - +100
UFC Fight Night 71
T. Duffee -200 over F. Mir - (-$200)
UFC 189
C. Mcgreggor -180 over C. Mendes - +$100
R. McDonald - 160 over R. Lawler - (-160)
M. Brown -150 over T. Means - +$100
UFC 188
C. Velasquez -460 over F. Werdum - (-$460)
UF 186
C.B. Dolloway +125 over M. Bisping - (-$125)
UFC 185
A. Overeem -160 over R. Nelson - +$100
UFC 184
R. Rousey -650 over C. Zingano - +$100
UFC 183
A. Silva -360 over N. Diaz - +$100
T. Woodley - 185 over K. Gastalum - +$100
I. McCall -220 over J. Lineker - +$100
UFC 182
J. Jones -195 over D. Cormier - +$100
D Cerrone -124 over M. Jury - +$100
Comments
I used to be quite knowledgable and obsessed with the UFC/MMA scene. I quite often would find that I could handicap some fights better than the vegas odds makers. I used to bet the fights, but for peas and carrots ($5 on this fight, $10 on that one) as I was in college at the time. I found it took a LOT of study to review each fighter, see how they've grown over their last X fights, etc, etc.
Now days there are too many new fighters I'm not familiar with so I have a tougher time handicapping them. I can definitely still pick fights out from names I know though and surprise most people.
I would absolutely disagree about the A. Silva vs N. Diaz fight. I actually bet on that fight, and I bet on Diaz. That fight was a lot closer than people realize (Diaz thought he won which is why he slacked in the last round). Though I did have him losing myself going to the last round too, so maybe his corner lied to him or something. Even so, A. Silva has shown to have a little problem taking a square punch, and I think his ground game is beyond over rated.
I wish I could get back in to it, as I was actually quite successful betting the fights. I even made "Fight Prediction" videos where I would do the entire card, not just the fights I was "pretty sure" on and I would call 80-90% of the fights correctly event after event (with several upsets, not just taking the lines). It just takes so much work to really "know" the fighters, review their fights, see how they stack up against one another, and then to possibly have your personal lines blown because they got injured 2 weeks out in camp and kept it "hush hush." It's rare, but it happened on occasion.
There's also an APP (forget the name) you can download which is like a UFC message board. Each event you e-mail the guy and you get "10k" play money to bet on at least 5 fights, etc, etc, and he posts how people did, etc. I came in the top few each time I participated. But alas, for "fun" runs out of novelty eventually =P.
We should crash our brains together and bet good money on these fights! =D
Nice. I also predict most of the lesser fights, but wouldn't put real money on most of them. We'll put our picks up before the next fight. I'll have to check out the site you refer to.
Please let us know when the Aldo vs. McGreggor line comes out(maybe it's already out?) and who you like..
I'm also interested in downloading(not illegal where I live) other MMA circuits. I've gotten a little tired of the UFC. It seems they fill the cards and are the bigger money but are there any competing circuits worth watching?
BTW, Frank Mir looked out of shape....
Frank Mir was out of shape in his previous fight too, but landed a lucky punch. If that had gone into round 2, Mir was history. Same story we found out with Brock Lesnar.
I'll be following. I'm more of a boxing fan, and bettor. I used to really be into pride though and I'd like to get back into MMA more.
Already took a little stab on Gus +305.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I really appreciate your efforts and I am waiting for your next write ups thank you once again.
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Comments
Oops. 0-2. Tough fighters and tough fights to call. 2 new champions.
Did you read anything about why the line moved some much on the Aldo vs McGregor fight? I know for a fact I saw McGregor at -135 earlier this week. There was a remark on the telecast that "a lot of money came in late on Aldo" so I guess that explains it to some extent. But at fight time, Aldo was the favorite so they said, on TV.
The other fight you missed was very entertaining, if you enjoy MMA that is. Rockhold just hung in there until it appeared Weidman got tired then started to dominate.
Lastly, if you know....I"m sure you saw Aldo connect a somewhat solid left as he was collasping. What happens, or has it ever happened, if both fighters go down as could have certainly happened had the strength of Aldo's hook been maintained? A draw? Wait? That my friend would have been a very very historic and quick finish.
I have a hard time believing that much money got put on Aldo right after the weigh in because people thought he looked confident. More than likely it was just seasoned betters knowing that they could get the better odds after all the Irish were in town and placed their bets. There were a lot that came in from Ireland.
On the McGregor knock out punch, I think if Aldo's lands first, Aldo knocks MCGREGOR out. It was going to be a huge punch. A double KO would have been amazing. It's happened in boxing before.
Weidman was stupid to try that spinning heel kick. It ended up getting the crap beat out of him. He should have just stuck to his game. But Rockhold is really good.
Can't wait for the Aldo vs McGreggor rematch. I agree with your previous analysis except I handicapped the fight as follows:
Aldo: -235
McGreggor: +175
Still a close fight indeed, but Aldo was known to be the CLEAR favorite. Why else did his line open at +180 and end at -140? =)
I can only hope since Aldo lost when these 2 eventually rematch (and they will) that Aldo again opens as a dog. Would make for a niiiiiiiiiice bet.