Super Bowl 53 Prop Bet Challenge
Also Question #20. Probably the max number of columns for a table was exceeded.Quote: unJonWizard, it looks like question 10 not reported on your charts.
Quote: unJonWizard, it looks like question 10 not reported on your charts.
Thanks, I just fixed it. And for 20 too.
Quote: EdCollinsNote that Bruce1's picks are messed up. He probably didn't pick "5" for question #7 (Rams or Pats), he probably didn't pick "52" for the MoV, he probably didn't pick "FG" for Question #12, (Yes or No) etc.
Yeah, he just sent a list of answers without numbering them and forgot one. I just fixed it, hopefully correctly.
Quote: Nathan
1. Winning team. Patriots. They have made FIVE Superbowl wins. The Eagles winning last year was literally a last minute fluke. Aren't the Rams a far subpar Team than The Patriots?
2. Will the coin toss land on heads or tails? Tails.
3. Total points. 125.
4. Margin of victory The Patriots by like a WIDE margin.
5. Total number of touchdowns. 10
6. Total number of field goals. 8
7. Team to score first. Rams
8. Team to score last. Patriots
9. Will the team to score first win? I think not.
10. First score (TD, FG, or safety) Field Goal
11. Last score (TD, FG, or safety) Touchdown
12. Will there be a safety? Yes
13. Will the game go into overtime? Yes.
14. Will there be a successful two-point conversion? Yes
15. Will there be a failed field goal attempt? Yes.
16. Longest field goal. 10 yards
17. Longest touchdown. 20 yards.
18. Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown? I think so.
19. Will the total points be a prime number? Yes
20. Total Scrabble points in the last name of the first player to score a touchdown. 50 points. I literally pulled that number out if my ass. ;)
Quote: WizardHere are the unedited Nathan picks :D.
I will lay 100-1 odds for a $10 bet that Nathan does not win the contest. My $1,000 against your $10. First 10 takers. Must respond by 9pm Pacific time tonight and say so in this thread.
(Longest field goal of 10 yards.... if there is no field goal what happens?)
Edit.... Nathan cannot change her picks, nor can any other members from the list the Wiz has already posted
Quote: SOOPOOI will lay 100-1 odds for a $10 bet that Nathan does not win the contest. My $1,000 against your $10. First 10 takers. Must respond by 9pm Pacific time tonight and say so in this thread.
(Longest field goal of 10 yards.... if there is no field goal what happens?)
Edit.... Nathan cannot change her picks, nor can any other members from the list the Wiz has already posted
Is there any purpose to this post except to try and embarrass a member here?
Quote: WizardThank you for your trust. It's a good bet, but I think it will fall to -800 by Sunday.
Better yet, find somebody who wants to bet the YES and split the difference between the Yes and No prices. Why go to strangers?
I think the days of being able to find a -700 are over, might be some -750s but will now take a lot more work or luck to find. The big loss is the game not being decided by 3 points bets have gone to -500 virtually everywhere. Used to be a great bet at -400.
Quote: billryanIs there any purpose to this post except to try and embarrass a member here?
Yes, to make money. Second purpose is to find out what happens to that prop if there is no field goal. Will the person who picked the lowest yardage win the bet? Or does that bet become a tie for all participants?
Quote: WizardHere are the unedited Nathan picks :D.
O.O
;-(
Quote: SOOPOOYes, to make money. Second purpose is to find out what happens to that prop if there is no field goal. Will the person who picked the lowest yardage win the bet? Or does that bet become a tie for all participants?
Bullshit.
If there are no field goals at all, Keeneone will be dancing a jig as he is the only one that answered "0 total field goals" for Prop #6. As for the answer to longest field goal (Prop #16), if there are no field goals, I suspect that would have to be 0 points for everyone.Quote: SOOPOOYes, to make money. Second purpose is to find out what happens to that prop if there is no field goal. Will the person who picked the lowest yardage win the bet? Or does that bet become a tie for all participants?
Enter the correct answers to each prop in the appropriate cell, and the spreadsheet will automatically determine everyone's score and the overall winner. (100 points divided equally among all those with the correct answer.)
http://www.edcollins.com/wizard_super_bowl_53_prop_bet_challenge.xlsx
I expect this spreadsheet can be improved upon, as I just threw it together in a few minutes. Assuming I put it together correctly, it should make the job of grading the Prop Bet Challenge very easy.
If my spreadsheet is correct, my max score is 134.467. (That's my score if I answered every prop correctly.)
btw there are some "Yes" "No" "TD" "FG" with additional blanks depending on how you check the results these may not matchup. How I found these was because I wanted the average and COUNTIF of each column with the possible votes and they weren't all 47 (ignoring some numeric entries that are ??).
Interestingly if the average or favourite results come in there's a tie for first place. Also that the average for longest field goal (46) and touchdown (45.826) are so similar.
| Correct Answer | Prop | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pats | Winning team |
| 2 | Tails | Will the coin toss land on heads or tails? |
| 3 | 56 | Total points |
| 4 | 6 | Margin of victory |
| 5 | 7 | Total number of touchdowns |
| 6 | 3 | Total number of field goals |
| 7 | Pats | Team to score first |
| 8 | Pats | Team to score last |
| 9 | Yes | Will the team to score first win? |
| 10 | TD | First score (TD, FG, or safety) |
| 11 | TD | Last score (TD, FG, or safety) |
| 12 | No | Will there be a safety? |
| 13 | No | Will the game go into overtime? |
| 14 | No | Will there be a successful two-point conversion? |
| 15 | No | Will there be a failed field goal attempt? |
| 16 | 46 | Longest field goal |
| 17 | 46 | Longest touchdown |
| 18 | No | Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown? |
| 19 | No | Will the total points be a prime number? |
| 20 | 16 | Total Scrabble points in the last name of the first player to score a touchdown. |
Good work! Yes, I found those extra spaces in some of the answers. I believe I've removed them all. If you downloaded the spreadsheet within the past 90 minutes, you will need to download it again. (Look for Version 2.0)Quote: charliepatrickGreat work - many thanks. Sadly mine is only 97.
btw there are some "Yes" "No" "TD" "FG" with additional blanks depending on how you check the results these may not matchup.
Quote: SOOPOOI will lay 100-1 odds for a $10 bet that Nathan does not win the contest.
I'll take it!
Quote:(Longest field goal of 10 yards.... if there is no field goal what happens?)
Nobody gets any points for that one.
Quote: billryanBullshit.
Warning -- profanity.
Quote: EdCollinsI put together a spreadsheet of everyone's picks.
Thank you! I'd like to nominate you to be the official scorekeeper. In the event of a dispute, I'd be happy to advise.
http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/25907794/million-dollar-bets-show-rams-las-vegas?platform=amp
I will give -600 for by exactly 3 points. I will take up to $50 from any reputable member. It means if the game is determined not exactly by 3 points, I will win up to $50. If it is exactly by 3 points, I will lose up to $300. I mean US$. Window is open until Sunday 5pm Eastern time. Thank you.Quote: TomGI think the days of being able to find a -700 are over, might be some -750s but will now take a lot more work or luck to find. The big loss is the game not being decided by 3 points bets have gone to -500 virtually everywhere. Used to be a great bet at -400.
FADE THE PUBLIC!!!!
LOL
Quote: speedycrapI will give -600 for by exactly 3 points. I will take up to $50 from any reputable member. It means if the game is determined not exactly by 3 points, I will win up to $50. If it is exactly by 3 points, I will lose up to $300. I mean US$. Window is open until Sunday 5pm Eastern time. Thank you.
Tom just said it's -500 everywhere and your offer is -600?
lol
If you like exactly 3 points -600 is way better than -500/-400.Quote: RisingDoughTom just said it's -500 everywhere and your offer is -600?
lol
Quote: RisingDoughPulbic is all over the HEADS which pushed it up to -106
FADE THE PUBLIC!!!!
LOL
Somebody obviously knows something.
Quote: djatcall you guys betting tails, you are suckers!
Most people calls heads when flipping a coin. I'm happy to see that most of us are contrarians.
| Side | Number |
|---|---|
| Heads | 21 |
| Tails | 26 |
Quote: WizardQuote: djatcall you guys betting tails, you are suckers!
Most people calls heads when flipping a coin. I'm happy to see that most of us are contrarians.
Side Number Heads 21 Tails 26
Tails never fails.
Tom wanted to bet the other way.Quote: speedycrapIf you like exactly 3 points -600 is way better than -500/-400.
Quote: WizardQuote: djatcall you guys betting tails, you are suckers!
Most people calls heads when flipping a coin. I'm happy to see that most of us are contrarians.
Side Number Heads 21 Tails 26
I was expecting more people to pick tails for some reason (which I normally would do). But in this case, pretty sure it’s better to pick the opposite of most people.
Pssht. It’s better to pick the winning side.Quote: RSQuote: WizardQuote: djatcall you guys betting tails, you are suckers!
Most people calls heads when flipping a coin. I'm happy to see that most of us are contrarians.
Side Number Heads 21 Tails 26
I was expecting more people to pick tails for some reason (which I normally would do). But in this case, pretty sure it’s better to pick the opposite of most people.
Quote: djatcall you guys betting tails, you are suckers!
One casino I was at had them both at -102
Quote: DRichQuote: djatcall you guys betting tails, you are suckers!
One casino I was at had them both at -102
I want to see a book put up tails at + money and see what the wagering looks like
Also, which one of you is this:
Bettor places $1.5 million wager on Rams to win Super Bowl.
Quote: TigerWuI can't remember where I read this, but there was some famous gambler/con man who kept a double-tailed coin on him at all times, because he knew that most people called heads on a coin flip, so whenever a bet came up involving that he won more often than not.
Also, which one of you is this:
Bettor places $1.5 million wager on Rams to win Super Bowl.
I fee like it was someone named Lefty. He would flip people for the dinner bill. He won If heads called. If tails, he would say, just kidding, wanted to see if you were a gambling man.
Quote: SOOPOOI will lay 100-1 odds for a $10 bet that Nathan does not win the contest. My $1,000 against your $10. First 10 takers. Must respond by 9pm Pacific time tonight and say so in this thread.
(Longest field goal of 10 yards.... if there is no field goal what happens?)
Edit.... Nathan cannot change her picks, nor can any other members from the list the Wiz has already posted
What odds om Nathan scoring higher than YOU!
Good eye. Not sure what was wrong! However, I played around with it for awhile and it seems to be okay now.Quote: gordonm888The column for points for Bet#20 does not seem to be functioning correctly in the spreadsheet.
Version 3 is now the latest version.
http://www.edcollins.com/wizard_of_vegas_super_bowl_53_prop_bet_challenge.xlsx
The missing spot on my card ( I believe it is #9) should be YES. I sent a PM to the Wizard to have him correct it, but since you are handling the spreadsheet, I wanted to put it here also.
Thanks,
FCBLComish
Quote: FCBLComishEd (and whoever else is keeping track),
The missing spot on my card ( I believe it is #9) should be YES. I sent a PM to the Wizard to have him correct it, but since you are handling the spreadsheet, I wanted to put it here also.
Thanks,
FCBLComish
I concur, it was in there. Somehow it got lost in the formatting process.
Quote: NathanI feel like I overshot with the 125 thing. Ooos. I should have said something like "60 points." Yikes. LMAO! O.O
The next highest guess looks to be 69.
So if the game goes over 97 points, you get the 100 points all to yourself.
And your guess of 20 yards for longest touchdown is the lowest, so you have a nice big 20 yard range (1-20) where you’d get all the points.
Clearly you went with a reverse Price is Right strategy there.
Quote: michael99000The next highest guess looks to be 69.
So if the game goes over 97 points, you get the 100 points all to yourself.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=401030972
Could happen I suppose.
Quote: michael99000The next highest guess looks to be 69.
So if the game goes over 97 points, you get the 100 points all to yourself.
And your guess of 20 yards for longest touchdown is the lowest, so you have a nice big 20 yard range (1-20) where you’d get all the points.
Clearly you went with a reverse Price is Right strategy there.
Not a bad strategy (not that I think the guesses were put in using a strategic method). Probably better than most others who are trying to be "correct". You're competing against 20-30 other people. High variance picks is where you wanna be.
Quote: RSNot a bad strategy (not that I think the guesses were put in using a strategic method). Probably better than most others who are trying to be "correct". You're competing against 20-30 other people. High variance picks is where you wanna be.
It’s a good strategy if it was a strategy. She can get the full 100 there and if there’s no long TDs she could get that full 100 also. If there happens to be 7 or more FGs , or 10 or more TDS she gets a another 100 points on either.
All the questions that involve only two possible answers (Yes/No, Rams/Pats, TD/FG) are gonna have the 100 points divided amongst many people. So any of the yardage questions where one person gets all 100 points would be huge for that person. I think Wizard knew this too and that’s why he took the 100-1 odds bet with SOOPOO.
But, The fact that she answered longest FG with an answer that can’t win , and she didn’t answer the margin of victory question at all will hurt her.
Quote: WizardI'll take it!
Nobody gets any points for that one.
Bet confirmed.
Quote: jackmagic777What odds om Nathan scoring higher than YOU!
Probably 2-1. I made a few picks that are clearly not ‘smart’, such as yes for prime number. But Nathan has a disqualified pick in ‘wide margin’, an essentially impossible pick in 10 yards for a field goal. The rest she is around as likely to win as I am.
Now that Wiz has taken me up on the bet I am a tad nervous though!
