Nathan
Joined: Sep 2, 2016
• Posts: 3430
February 3rd, 2019 at 7:28:20 AM permalink
Thank you for the votes of confidence, Wizard! :D :D :D A triple happy face to convey what I am feeling now! Here's another big happy face! :D
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
Nathan
Joined: Sep 2, 2016
• Posts: 3430
February 3rd, 2019 at 7:30:31 AM permalink
Question. Anyone wanna take bets on the total points accumulated being exactly 125? ;) This is a 98 percent joke question. Only 2 percent of it being completely serious. ;)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 6827
February 3rd, 2019 at 7:37:29 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are the results, based on all NFL games between the 2006 and 2017 seasons:

Prime total = 1159
Composite total = 3989

The following table shows the 15 people that picked prime can expect to win 1.50 points on that one, while the composite pickers can expect to win 2.42. This doesn't factor in the high over/under, and there are fewer primes the further out you get.

Prime Players Prob win Win share Exp points
Yes 15 0.225136 6.666667 1.500907
No 32 0.774864 3.125 2.42145

As to Nathan, I'm hoping she gets a windfall of points on some picks. She will get 100 points for 9 or more touchdowns or 7 or more field goals. Not to mention quite a few for overtime or a safety. I show she has a 11.1% chance to win the field goals and 19.2% on the touchdowns. Just on those, she has a 30.2% chance of winning, and I think they may be negatively correlated, which increases my chances even more. Not to mention the overtime and safety possibly helping. Guys, don't be surprised if she wins this thing. I think 100 to 1 odds on Nathan is one of the best bets I ever made. I'd suggest asking SOOPOO if you can be one of the other nine bettors, if his window is still open.

Incorrect. If there are 9 TDs Nathan gets zero points for that bet. But in general I agree with your analysis. DJ has a lot of the same picks as Nathan. So in a lower scoring game he may beat her even if she hits a few of the less likely ones.
EdCollins
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
• Posts: 1242
February 3rd, 2019 at 9:38:28 AM permalink
Sigh...

http://www.edcollins.com/wizard_super_bowl_53_prop_bet_challenge.xlsx

I found a couple of additional answers that had either leading or trailing spaces within the answer! (I thought I had fixed all of them earlier, but I was wrong. It's often hard to spot this visually,of course. So I had a macro remove them all.) This should be the final version.

Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21772
February 3rd, 2019 at 9:38:38 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Incorrect. If there are 9 TDs Nathan gets zero points for that bet.

You're right, I overlooked that Ladygordon (any relation to gordon888?) picked 9. I show the probability of 10 or more to be 11.1%, coincidentally almost the same as the probability of 7 or more field goals. This is using the Poisson distribution to estimate the total based on a mean number of expected FG/TD, which is probably overstating the real probability somewhat.

Quote: Nathan

Thank you for the votes of confidence, Wizard! :D :D :D A triple happy face to convey what I am feeling now! Here's another big happy face! :D

I think a nice tip will be coming your way if we win!!!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
• Posts: 6763
February 3rd, 2019 at 12:07:57 PM permalink
How many entries are there where the total score doesn’t equal the total points from field goals and touchdowns?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 2482
February 3rd, 2019 at 12:57:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You're right, I overlooked that Ladygordon (any relation to gordon888?) picked 9.

I am as flabbergasted to see a Ladygordon as everyone else. I have never been known to both sleepwalk and crossdress at the same time, so I assume she is a valid entrant. But I've never heard of her before.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 2482
February 3rd, 2019 at 1:09:56 PM permalink
First, to use EdCollins spreadsheet, you will need to click on Unfreeze Panes.

Interesting exercise: Input all 20 of your guesses and then look at everyone's scores -the person with the highest score (other than you) is your nearest 'twin' - the person whose predictions were the closest to you.

My nearest twins were Tommy 711 and UnJon. (edited)

The person with the lowest score (most different than my guesses) was Nathan, but KeeneOne was a close second. (edited)
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
• Posts: 1734
February 3rd, 2019 at 1:15:01 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

First, to use EdCollins spreadsheet, you will need to click on Unfreeze Panes.

Interesting exercise: Input all 20 of your guesses and then look at everyone's scores -the person with the highest score (other than you) is your nearest 'twin' - the person whose predictions were the closest to you.

My nearest twin was UnJon.

The person with the lowest score (most different than my guesses) was Nathan, but JohnZimbo was a close second.

I knew I liked you for some reason.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
JohnnyQ
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
• Posts: 3171
February 3rd, 2019 at 2:29:17 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

But due to NATHAN's "crazy" picks, she has MANY picks that she could win alone.

"Ahh so, the student has become the teacher !"

We could have all done the same.

Changing subjects:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/england-patriots-owner-praises-donald-111554593.html

The owner of the New England Patriots NFL team praised President Donald Trump in an interview with Fox News’ morning show “Fox & Friends” on Friday.

Robert Kraft, whose Patriots face the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl on Sunday, said Trump was “working very hard to serve the best interests of the country.”

OK, I am now rooting for the RAMS.
All around me are familiar faces / Worn out places, worn out faces / Bright and early for their daily races / Going nowhere, going nowhere - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdCLnwIkkps