Quote:WizardHere are the results, based on all NFL games between the 2006 and 2017 seasons:

Prime total = 1159

Composite total = 3989

The following table shows the 15 people that picked prime can expect to win 1.50 points on that one, while the composite pickers can expect to win 2.42. This doesn't factor in the high over/under, and there are fewer primes the further out you get.

Prime Players Prob win Win share Exp points Yes 15 0.225136 6.666667 1.500907 No 32 0.774864 3.125 2.42145

As to Nathan, I'm hoping she gets a windfall of points on some picks. She will get 100 points for 9 or more touchdowns or 7 or more field goals. Not to mention quite a few for overtime or a safety. I show she has a 11.1% chance to win the field goals and 19.2% on the touchdowns. Just on those, she has a 30.2% chance of winning, and I think they may be negatively correlated, which increases my chances even more. Not to mention the overtime and safety possibly helping. Guys, don't be surprised if she wins this thing. I think 100 to 1 odds on Nathan is one of the best bets I ever made. I'd suggest asking SOOPOO if you can be one of the other nine bettors, if his window is still open.

Incorrect. If there are 9 TDs Nathan gets zero points for that bet. But in general I agree with your analysis. DJ has a lot of the same picks as Nathan. So in a lower scoring game he may beat her even if she hits a few of the less likely ones.

Version 4 is now the latest version.

http://www.edcollins.com/wizard_super_bowl_53_prop_bet_challenge.xlsx

I found a couple of additional answers that had either leading or trailing spaces within the answer! (I thought I had fixed all of them earlier, but I was wrong. It's often hard to spot this visually,of course. So I had a macro remove them all.) This should be the final version.

Sorry for those of you who took the time to download it earlier, as you should download it once more.

Quote:SOOPOOIncorrect. If there are 9 TDs Nathan gets zero points for that bet.

You're right, I overlooked that Ladygordon (any relation to gordon888?) picked 9. I show the probability of 10 or more to be 11.1%, coincidentally almost the same as the probability of 7 or more field goals. This is using the Poisson distribution to estimate the total based on a mean number of expected FG/TD, which is probably overstating the real probability somewhat.

Quote:NathanThank you for the votes of confidence, Wizard! :D :D :D A triple happy face to convey what I am feeling now! Here's another big happy face! :D

I think a nice tip will be coming your way if we win!!!

Quote:WizardYou're right, I overlooked that Ladygordon (any relation to gordon888?) picked 9.

I am as flabbergasted to see a Ladygordon as everyone else. I have never been known to both sleepwalk and crossdress at the same time, so I assume she is a valid entrant. But I've never heard of her before.

Interesting exercise: Input all 20 of your guesses and then look at everyone's scores -the person with the highest score (other than you) is your nearest 'twin' - the person whose predictions were the closest to you.

My nearest twins were Tommy 711 and UnJon. (edited)

The person with the lowest score (most different than my guesses) was Nathan, but KeeneOne was a close second. (edited)

I knew I liked you for some reason.Quote:gordonm888First, to use EdCollins spreadsheet, you will need to click on Unfreeze Panes.

Interesting exercise: Input all 20 of your guesses and then look at everyone's scores -the person with the highest score (other than you) is your nearest 'twin' - the person whose predictions were the closest to you.

My nearest twin was UnJon.

The person with the lowest score (most different than my guesses) was Nathan, but JohnZimbo was a close second.

"Ahh so, the student has become the teacher !"Quote:SOOPOOBut due to NATHAN's "crazy" picks, she has MANY picks that she could win alone.

We could have all done the same.

Changing subjects:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/england-patriots-owner-praises-donald-111554593.html

The owner of the New England Patriots NFL team praised President Donald Trump in an interview with Fox News’ morning show “Fox & Friends” on Friday.

Robert Kraft, whose Patriots face the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl on Sunday, said Trump was “working very hard to serve the best interests of the country.”

OK, I am now rooting for the RAMS.