SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 3rd, 2019 at 5:28:52 AM permalink
Yowza! I very well may be taught an expensive lesson today! If the longest field goal is 18 yards, NOT an uncommon distance if a team kicks it after barely failing to score a TD, NATHAN wins that prop ALONE!
If there are 98 or more points scored, Nathan wins that prop ALONE!
If it goes to OT NATHAN gets a boatload of points!
If there is a safety NATHAN gets a boatload of points!
If the longest TD is 22 yards or less, certainly a very reasonable outcome, NATHAN wins that prop bet!
If there are 7 or more FGs, NATHAN wins that prop bet!
If there are 10 or more TDs, NATHAN wins that prop bet!

Most of us selected numerical answers that were around what would be expected. With around 50 contestants the way to win might be to pick numbers far away from the norm, and hope for a strange event or two (or three).

If I was going one on one against NATHAN I would make myself a huge favorite. But in a group of 50 I'd say Nathan has a far better chance than I do of winning the whole enchilada.
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
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February 3rd, 2019 at 5:42:36 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Yowza! I very well may be taught an expensive lesson today!

Well, thanks for adding some interest to this.

There are 47 people in the contest, so if we were just drawing names from a hat, wouldn't the odds be about 47 - 1 ? So your odds are only off by about a factor of two. So, yes definitely a good deal for Wiz but not the deal of the century.
You know the type always acting cool, Pretender;Take the risk or give up your cards, Pretender, Oh, Oh. - Iris/Avsec
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 3rd, 2019 at 5:47:48 AM permalink
Quote: JohnnyQ

Well, thanks for adding some interest to this.

There are 47 people in the contest, so if we were just drawing names from a hat, wouldn't the odds be about 47 - 1 ? So your odds are only off by about a factor of two. So, yes definitely a good deal for Wiz but not the deal of the century.



Disagree. Before we knew the selections I'd say you'd be correct. But due to NATHAN's "crazy" picks, she has MANY picks that she could win alone. The rest of us will be sharing points among 45 of us for no safety, no OT type props. If she wins just TWO of those alone she is a huge favorite to win the whole thing.
unJon
unJon 
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February 3rd, 2019 at 6:00:48 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Disagree. Before we knew the selections I'd say you'd be correct. But due to NATHAN's "crazy" picks, she has MANY picks that she could win alone. The rest of us will be sharing points among 45 of us for no safety, no OT type props. If she wins just TWO of those alone she is a huge favorite to win the whole thing.

To be fair, you offered the bet after all picks were known. If the bet is still open, I will bet $10 alongside the Wizard. Let me know.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 3rd, 2019 at 6:05:12 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

To be fair, you offered the bet after all picks were known. If the bet is still open, I will bet $10 alongside the Wizard. Let me know.



Blessedly I did give 9pm yesterday as the cutoff time! So no thanks! I think my bet is probably negative EV around $40. But I'm not really a gambler so the $1,000 loss will sting if it comes to that! I will most be upset with myself for not doing my due diligence!
Nathan
Nathan
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February 3rd, 2019 at 6:13:49 AM permalink
Time to make a switch offer. There is a lot of talk about how my "Crazy," bets actually might win(Someone PM'd me to say if the total points is anywhere near 125, I would be the clear cut winner and a total points accumulation of anywhere near 125 would go down in the History Books. I'll admitted that 125 was a CRAZY idea and I should have went with like 60, but people are saying Maybe this CRAZY number might pay off big time. Stranger things have happened before like The Philadelphia Eagles winning a last minute victory against The Patriots who won 5 Superbowls before. Anyone wanna switch bets with me? This is a half serious offer. I'm not even sure if we are allowed to switch bets.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 3rd, 2019 at 6:23:08 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

Time to make a switch offer. There is a lot of talk about how my "Crazy," bets actually might win(Someone PM'd me to say if the total points is anywhere near 125, I would be the clear cut winner and a total points accumulation of anywhere near 125 would go down in the History Books. I'll admitted that 125 was a CRAZY idea and I should have went with like 60, but people are saying Maybe this CRAZY number might pay off big time. Stranger things have happened before like The Philadelphia Eagles winning a last minute victory against The Patriots who won 5 Superbowls before. Anyone wanna switch bets with me? This is a half serious offer. I'm not even sure if we are allowed to switch bets.



Read my post a few posts back. If the total is 98 or more you have a great chance to win it all. Even your 'silly' field goal pick may win!
Nathan
Nathan
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February 3rd, 2019 at 6:41:54 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Read my post a few posts back. If the total is 98 or more you have a great chance to win it all. Even your 'silly' field goal pick may win!



I know. I was only half serious with the "Switch bets offer." Can you imagine if say The Rams get 55 and The Patriots get 60? Oh my God in the best way possible! :D
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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February 3rd, 2019 at 6:58:19 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Probably 2-1. I made a few picks that are clearly not ‘smart’, such as yes for prime number.



Here are the results, based on all NFL games between the 2006 and 2017 seasons:

Prime total = 1159
Composite total = 3989

The following table shows the 15 people that picked prime can expect to win 1.50 points on that one, while the composite pickers can expect to win 2.42. This doesn't factor in the high over/under, and there are fewer primes the further out you get.

Prime Players Prob win Win share Exp points
Yes 15 0.225136 6.666667 1.500907
No 32 0.774864 3.125 2.42145


As to Nathan, I'm hoping she gets a windfall of points on some picks. She will get 100 points for 9 or more touchdowns or 7 or more field goals. Not to mention quite a few for overtime or a safety. I show she has a 11.1% chance to win the field goals and 19.2% on the touchdowns. Just on those, she has a 30.2% chance of winning, and I think they may be negatively correlated, which increases my chances even more. Not to mention the overtime and safety possibly helping. Guys, don't be surprised if she wins this thing. I think 100 to 1 odds on Nathan is one of the best bets I ever made. I'd suggest asking SOOPOO if you can be one of the other nine bettors, if his window is still open.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy 
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February 3rd, 2019 at 7:06:36 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Please clarify what a FG attempt is? If the team 'lines up' for a FG, but because of a bad snap, the kicker never makes a kicking attempt, is that a failed FG? Even if the holder runs the ball in for a TD but that was clearly not the intent of the play? Let's say because of a bad snap the holder makes an incomplete pass? Or fumbles the ball and the defensive team recovers?


According to the NFL Statisticians' Guide, the kicker must actually kick the ball in order to be counted as a field goal attempt.

Treat anything else as if had been planned as a fake the entire time. For example, a "bad snap that turns into an incomplete pass" is considered a pass, and not a kick. Similarly, if the holder is tackled with the ball before the kicker can kick it, it is a rushing play.

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