Banning Sharp Sports Bettors in the U.S.
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the first few paragraphs are about the U.K.; deeper into the story it gets to the U.S.
https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/won-sportsbooks-banning-smart-money/story?id=57307967
Why do the books care? I thought they set the lines to get approximately even money on both sides, and then made their money on the vig.
Quote: gamerfreakI don’t understand sports betting that well.
Why do the books care? I thought they set the lines to get approximately even money on both sides, and then made their money on the vig.
The way the system is set up, There can be uneven money bet and the books can take a big loss.
There is a simple solution, pari mutual. Guaranteed profit, no chance of a loss. That's how the horse tracks work
Quote: terapinedThe way the system is set up, There can be uneven money bet and the books can take a big loss.
There is a simple solution, pari mutual. Guaranteed profit, no chance of a loss. That's how the horse tracks work
Can you name more than a handful of successful horse tracks?
Most tracks need a racino attached to stay in business these days.
Quote: billryanCan you name more than a handful of successful horse tracks?
Most tracks need a racino attached to stay in business these days.
Its an uneven business for sure but a well run track can make money
I used to live in MD. Going to Laurel was very depressing. Small crowd , cheap horses, small fields. 5 horse race not unusual.
I moved to Tampa
Tampa Bay Downs thriving. Big energetic crowds, good horses, large fields.
Sports books can protect themselves
say 800k bet on favorite team to win and 200k bet on underdog to win
Say underdog wins. Book takes 50k off the top and pays 950k to the underdog winners.
Books make 50k no matter who wins
No risk
Quote: terapinedThere is a simple solution, pari mutual. Guaranteed profit, no chance of a loss. That's how the horse tracks work
that is not a simple solution. in parimutuel wagering at the tracks the bettor does not get finalized odds on his bet. he makes a bet on a favorite at 8/5 with 5 minutes to post and he may actually get paid 4/5 - happens quite often.
the tradition in sports betting is to give the player a guaranteed price re what his payout is going to be
it wouldn't be easy to get the sports betting community to accept that they bet on the Chiefs at -6 but instead of getting paid 10/11 they can only get paid 10/15 because not enough money was bet on the other side to pay 10/11
or to bet the Yankees at +140 and end up getting paid only +115
that dog won't hunt
Quote: lilredroosterthat is not a simple solution. in parimutuel wagering at the tracks the bettor does not get finalized odds on his bet. he makes a bet on a favorite at 8/5 with 5 minutes to post and he may actually get paid 4/5 - happens quite often.
the tradition in sports betting is to give the player a guaranteed price re what his payout is going to be
it wouldn't be easy to get the sports betting community to accept that they bet on the Chiefs at -6 but instead of getting paid 10/11 they can only get paid 10/15 because not enough money was bet on the other side to pay 10/11
or to bet the Yankees at +140 and end up getting paid only +115
that dog won't hunt
I think it would work if that was the only choice for betting on sports
Books no longer need to set odds because the free market will determine the odds which is the fairest way
People can bet as much as they want. Nobody banned.
Instead of AP vs the bookie, its AP vs the general public
How would it be the only choice? Who is going to shut down the illegal bookies whose actions dwarf that of Vegas? Shall I place a bet at MGM and have no idea what the return will be or call my guy Sal and bet a dime giving 3 and 1/2?
Quote: unJonI’ve heard that in australia the horse races are not parimutuel but on a bookie system.
We have both.
Quote: terapined
Sports books can protect themselves
say 800k bet on favorite team to win and 200k bet on underdog to win
Say underdog wins. Book takes 50k off the top and pays 950k to the underdog winners.
Books make 50k no matter who wins
No risk
That might work for a Monday night NFL game, but what about a 10:00am college basketball first half total. An independent sports book might take three $10 bets on that line. What happens to the odds if someone wants to bet $1,000 on it?
Quote: terapinedI think it would work if that was the only choice for betting on sports
Using this logic, it wouldn't work so long as it isn't the only choice. Which means it would only take one place to break away from the rest to cause it to fall apart. Doesn't seem very stable to me
So if they bet the other side, would they be not allowed to bet, or does the bet have to be placed by someone known to make good bets? Do these good bets have to typically be when the books don't have balanced action, then the books feel humiliated and later retaliate?
Quote: onenickelmiraclehttps://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/6249680-two-bettors-lost-around-1-million-on-crazy-moneyline-bets
So if they bet the other side, would they be not allowed to bet, or does the bet have to be placed by someone known to make good bets? Do these good bets have to typically be when the books don't have balanced action, then the books feel humiliated and later retaliate?
an example is this:
tonight at 7p.m. Howard is playing Ball State in basketball
it's a junk game the big books don't care about
they don't know much of anything about these teams
all they did was crunch some stats to come up with a line
they probably have only a couple thou total bet on the game
they only offer the game so they don't piss off some alumni who wants to bet the game who is losing a small fortune at craps
so some wiseguy comes up and wants to bet $25K on Ball State
very good chance he knows a lot more about this game than the books do
the books don't even know or care if Howard's star averaging 22 p.p.g. is injured
they could care less - as I said it's a junk game
but when this guy tries to make this big bet they don't like it
they don't really want his action
Quote: gamerfreakI don’t understand sports betting that well.
Why do the books care? I thought they set the lines to get approximately even money on both sides, and then made their money on the vig.
That is the way it is supposed to work. But read up on sportsbooks, they would rather people bet on losers.
One way is imagine 5 games in an NFL afternoon. The book is out of balance on all 5 games. What are the odds they are off the wrong way on all 5? Very low on a coin-flip basis. But many book managers believe the public is usually stupid so they have a better than average shot of being on the right side more often than not.
Bottom line is they need the sharps but do not want them.
Quote: lilredroosterso some wiseguy comes up and wants to bet $25K on Ball State
very good chance he knows a lot more about this game than the books do
the books don't even know or care if Howard's star averaging 22 p.p.g. is injured
they could care less - as I said it's a junk game
but when this guy tries to make this big bet they don't like it
they don't really want his action
This problem is solved over 90% of the time simply by having limits.
That makes more sense.Quote: lilredroosteran example is this:
tonight at 7p.m. Howard is playing Ball State in basketball
it's a junk game the big books don't care about
they don't know much of anything about these teams
all they did was crunch some stats to come up with a line
they probably have only a couple thou total bet on the game
they only offer the game so they don't piss off some alumni who wants to bet the game who is losing a small fortune at craps
so some wiseguy comes up and wants to bet $25K on Ball State
very good chance he knows a lot more about this game than the books do
the books don't even know or care if Howard's star averaging 22 p.p.g. is injured
they could care less - as I said it's a junk game
but when this guy tries to make this big bet they don't like it
they don't really want his action
Quote: TomGThis problem is solved over 90% of the time simply by having limits.
Exactly!!
Put a $5k limit on the games and adjust the odds after each bet. They will then be able to minimize their exposure.
Off course I think the bookies ring through to a central office and (I've heard) they reduce the odds for larger bets. So on a football match the public may be allowed 5/4 for small wagers but a large bet might only get 11/10. The lines don't tend to change much on football but they can on horse races (which near the off are based on live shows from the track).
