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TigerWu
TigerWu
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Rigondeaux
October 20th, 2018 at 7:59:22 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

There's way too many moving parts for the score to correlate close to the spread every single 4th quarter of every game.



If there's that many moving parts I would think it would be even harder to fix a game within a couple of points.

Quote:

Would it be or would it not be in the NBA's best interest to have the score in the 4th quarter close to the spread for TV viewership/ratings if the commissioner directly tells you the league endorses betting?



Why would a close game in the 4th quarter effect ratings?

People who want to watch the game have already been doing so since the 1st quarter.

People who have bet on the game don't even need to be watching to win or lose, so ratings are irrelevant for them.
gordonm888
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Rigondeaux
October 20th, 2018 at 10:20:00 AM permalink
Who has the ability to reliably and decisively throw a game?

ML Baseball:
Pitcher,
Plate Umpire
Really, no one else, think about it. Yes, a fielder might intentionally make an error, but no gambler is going to rely on the circumstances being such that a given fielder will happen to be in a position to throw a game by faking an error.

NFL:
1. Any starting QB.
2. Almost any offensive lineman - but it would damage their career.
3. Star players by faking injury - can change the odds, but usually not decisive.
4. Single Referees -not so much, they can be over-ruled by other referees. And their is so much video tape evidence of bad calls. that this seems impractical.

NBA (or college basketball)
Any above average starter.
Almost any referee. (See John Calipari's complaints about one particular referee having a vendetta against Kentucky and officiating in games where they lose due to questionable calls.)

Tennis
Any player.

Hockey
Any goalie.
(Perhaps) a defenseman or referee

Boxing,/Martial Arts
Any fighter.
*****************************************
Based on above, the games most susceptible to fixing are Boxing/Martial Arts, Tennis and Basketball.

Every play in the NFL is so scrutinized and reviewed that I think it has the lowest risk of game fixing. Plus, it is such a team sport with so many substitutions during game play, that I doubt that any player other than a QB could be relied on to fix a game.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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October 20th, 2018 at 10:25:26 AM permalink
I would think the easiest way to "fix" a game would be with prop bets.

"Okay, bet $1000 that in the 4th quarter, I'm going to spin around in a circle and tap my head three times, and then I'll do it right before the snap."

Okay, obviously nothing that stupid, but maybe more like throwing a certain number of curve balls in an inning, or a specific player getting a specific number of slam dunks in a game. Something that one or two players could easily control.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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October 20th, 2018 at 10:55:47 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

It all started with corrupt David Stern and now the NBA even comes out and says they endorse sports betting.


You mean the David Stern that loved sports betting so much that he, er, invoked his right to ask the Nevada State Gaming Commission to impose a ban on accepting bets on the NBA All-Star Game (and the three-point and slam-dunk contests, as well, although I don't think any books took bets on those) when it was played in Las Vegas?

Quote: Rigondeaux

Another thing I've heard is that certain college coaches are aware of the spread and will go a little out of their way to beat it, knowing that many boosters and alumni have bet on the team. But if that's true, and you can figure it out, and the market hasn't figured it out and adjusted, that's a nice edge.

I still got burned occasionally. When Manny P was at the height of his powers and each of his fights brought an ocean of Asian money into Las Vegas, I thought that Nevada judges would bend over backwards to hand him a victory over the relatively unknown Tim Bradly. In the eyes of almost all viewers, Pac man won the fight, but the judges gave it to Bradley and I lost one of my biggest bets. I still remember how shocked I was when the official results came.


I wouldn't be surprised if the coaches that care about the spread try to beat it because they're afraid that if they don't cover, then it will send up a red flag that somebody on the team might be shaving points. Arizona State will not soon be forgotten.

And as for the first Pacquiao-Bradley fight, soon after that, one of the judges that voted for Bradley also scored a Mayweather fight that everybody thought he had won easily a 114-114 draw.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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October 20th, 2018 at 7:23:49 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Y

And as for the first Pacquiao-Bradley fight, soon after that, one of the judges that voted for Bradley also scored a Mayweather fight that everybody thought he had won easily a 114-114 draw.



CJ Ross. An infamous name in the boxing world.

It's a bit hard to say what her story was. I tend to think she was just grossly incompetent.

I used to keep notes on the different judges. There was one guy, named Warner perhaps, who was totally in the bag for Golden Boy fighters. Going through his archives was hilarious.

Fun fact about boxing: the promoters pay the wages of the judges, which can get into the 5 figure range iirc. They also play a role in selecting the judges. As a judge, you might get to judge a fight in Tokyo, Paris or London. All expenses paid, with a per diem. Makes sense to keep your boss happy.

As you work in the boxing business, makes sense to side with the fighter who is most +EV for the game as a whole.

But a lot of them are also just very bad at their jobs. And, in fairess, it is a very difficult job to begin with.
TomG
TomG
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October 21st, 2018 at 1:04:44 PM permalink
Sports are so clearly and unquestionably rigged, that it often gets missed. One example would be the way the sports leagues determine draft order. It is rigged in a way to give bad teams a chance to improve. The rules for the Golden Knights expansion draft was much more favorable than other expansion drafts mostly because Foley paid $500 million. That feels rigged to me. Officiating mistakes is another example. For years the leagues had replay technology, but wouldn't use it, or only use it partially. That's an example of keeping the game rigged in an effort to make the pace more appealing to customers.

The nefarious examples tend to only be based on rumors, but there are some that I believe. When UFC was doing their own drug testing, it would have been very easy for them to be much more lenient in "randomly" testing some fighters than others. Just watching some weigh-ins, it was hard to believe they were really anywhere close to USADA or WADA level drug testing those years. The Mayweather-McGregor fight was stopped way too soon and one judge scored a 10-8 round with no knock down. And then there is the Kings - Lakers playoff game in 2002, which was probably just the most blatant example among at least a few.

But in those examples above, none were tied to gambling. It was a matter of being able to better sell their product. The UFC needed stars. Boxing couldn't survive with a different result. The NBA wanted to sell more playoff games in June. Anytime a sports game is rigged it is almost always about the money. And in the US, the money in sports gambling is such a small fraction of the money in sports. TV, ticket sales, shoe companies, et cetera. Anytime a sports game is rigged in the US, it is likely from something other than gambling. Other countries (thinking Asia specifically), gambling may be where most of the money is. In that case gambling is the likely reason for sports to be rigged.

Some times, what may look like a fixed game because of gambling is because people just have no idea what they're really seeing an make up their own details to fit whatever they want (this may or may not apply to ZenKinG). A few years ago, Hawaii opened as a 23 point favorite against UNLV. So much money kept coming in on UNLV that the line dropped 6-7 points. Money line went from +1600 to +700. Then the underdog won by 20 and someone sent an anonymous tip to the police that Hawaii was "shaving points," and things were crazy for a little while thinking the team was throwing the game. The more credible story that has been corroborated is that Hawaii players went out partying way too hard in Las Vegas, and some people with a lot of money learned about it and bet enough to move the line that much.

For sports betting, information is always going to be for more efficient and profitable than rigging the games. It would be must easier and better for earning money to have a direct line with the bullpen catcher to know how a pitchers arm is doing rather than trying to convince a pitcher to groove a fastball to lose a game. It would be much easier to have access to a graduate assistant to know about the team than to payoff the longsnapper or quarterback to make bad plays.

The sports betting industry profits only when the customer believes the game is fair. The industry would be hurt by any fixing. It does happen, though. The ASU basketball article from Sports Illustrated in the 90s (check their vault) is probably the most insightful piece there is

For those of us who do bet on sports, we are just as likely to benefit from these rigged events as lose because of them. A sports bettor talking or complaining about rigged games is the equivalent of a blackjack player complaining that another player took the dealers bust card.
TomG
TomG
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October 21st, 2018 at 1:10:24 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Who has the ability to reliably and decisively throw a game?



But it doesn't need to be reliable, nor decisive. Against a point spread a teach should have a close to 50% chance of covering without anything being rigged. Changing those odds to 60-70% would still be huge and most players who get any playing time in most team sports could influence the game that much by playing lazy.
petroglyph
petroglyph
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October 21st, 2018 at 1:34:45 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

<<<NFL:
1. Any starting QB.
2. Almost any offensive lineman - but it would damage their career.
3. Star players by faking injury - can change the odds, but usually not decisive.
4. Single Referees -not so much, they can be over-ruled by other referees. And their is so much video tape evidence of bad calls. that this seems impractical.>>>>

Plus, it is such a team sport with so many substitutions during game play, that I doubt that any player other than a QB could be relied on to fix a game.



#5...the kicker
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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October 21st, 2018 at 1:52:05 PM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

#5...the kicker



Boy, no kidding about the kicker. Last week was a disASTer for a couple teams.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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October 21st, 2018 at 2:05:36 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Sports are so clearly and unquestionably rigged, that it often gets missed. One example would be the way the sports leagues determine draft order. It is rigged in a way to give bad teams a chance to improve. The rules for the Golden Knights expansion draft was much more favorable than other expansion drafts mostly because Foley paid $500 million. That feels rigged to me. Officiating mistakes is another example. For years the leagues had replay technology, but wouldn't use it, or only use it partially. That's an example of keeping the game rigged in an effort to make the pace more appealing to customers.

The nefarious examples tend to only be based on rumors, but there are some that I believe. When UFC was doing their own drug testing, it would have been very easy for them to be much more lenient in "randomly" testing some fighters than others. Just watching some weigh-ins, it was hard to believe they were really anywhere close to USADA or WADA level drug testing those years. The Mayweather-McGregor fight was stopped way too soon and one judge scored a 10-8 round with no knock down. And then there is the Kings - Lakers playoff game in 2002, which was probably just the most blatant example among at least a few.

But in those examples above, none were tied to gambling. It was a matter of being able to better sell their product. The UFC needed stars. Boxing couldn't survive with a different result. The NBA wanted to sell more playoff games in June. Anytime a sports game is rigged it is almost always about the money. And in the US, the money in sports gambling is such a small fraction of the money in sports. TV, ticket sales, shoe companies, et cetera. Anytime a sports game is rigged in the US, it is likely from something other than gambling. Other countries (thinking Asia specifically), gambling may be where most of the money is. In that case gambling is the likely reason for sports to be rigged.

Some times, what may look like a fixed game because of gambling is because people just have no idea what they're really seeing an make up their own details to fit whatever they want (this may or may not apply to ZenKinG). A few years ago, Hawaii opened as a 23 point favorite against UNLV. So much money kept coming in on UNLV that the line dropped 6-7 points. Money line went from +1600 to +700. Then the underdog won by 20 and someone sent an anonymous tip to the police that Hawaii was "shaving points," and things were crazy for a little while thinking the team was throwing the game. The more credible story that has been corroborated is that Hawaii players went out partying way too hard in Las Vegas, and some people with a lot of money learned about it and bet enough to move the line that much.

For sports betting, information is always going to be for more efficient and profitable than rigging the games. It would be must easier and better for earning money to have a direct line with the bullpen catcher to know how a pitchers arm is doing rather than trying to convince a pitcher to groove a fastball to lose a game. It would be much easier to have access to a graduate assistant to know about the team than to payoff the longsnapper or quarterback to make bad plays.

The sports betting industry profits only when the customer believes the game is fair. The industry would be hurt by any fixing. It does happen, though. The ASU basketball article from Sports Illustrated in the 90s (check their vault) is probably the most insightful piece there is

For those of us who do bet on sports, we are just as likely to benefit from these rigged events as lose because of them. A sports bettor talking or complaining about rigged games is the equivalent of a blackjack player complaining that another player took the dealers bust card.



Even the examples you gave are speculative. I really don't think the Connor Floyd match was stopped early, and if so, it wasn't to protect Floyd. Floyd was just toying with him and trying to make for a good show. Connor was gassed and had had enough.

Maybe the refs really just screwed up in the lakers/kings. Perhaps this single example from 20 years ago stands out so much because it was just a plain ole aberation. But maybe not.

Conspiracy minded people tend to not really grasp how different the first person perspective is from the outside, TV/Video game perspective. And how different making a decision on the spot with little information is from looking at the big picture over time. And how chaotic real life is, compared to the tight little narratives you come up with in your mind.

A ref is watching 20 things happen at once, with incredible speed, while standing there on the floor. The idea that he is perfectly calculating what call to make with regard to the point spread is a little silly.

Sitting there watching a fight at ringside with a limited perspective, no announcers and knowing when a punch landed or not is very, very hard.

Sometimes you drive through a stop sign without seeing it, or fill out a form incorrectly or whatever and for everytime you realize you've made a mistake, there are many others that you never know about. That's just how it is.

Imagine someone claiming your every move was part of some grand scheme to screw them over, and that this was all you thought about 24/7 with perfect focus and flawless execution. Not only that, it was part of a perfectly coordinated effort with everybody else in your life, who was doing the same thing.

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