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Mission146
Mission146
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Thanks for this post from:
smoothgrh
August 14th, 2018 at 8:59:13 AM permalink
Greetings!

I just wanted to post up a thread about my article (and new series of NFL articles) called, "Crossing the Line." In this one, we're going to take a look at the Cleveland Browns, a team so bad, that even Vegas and the bettors do not know what to do with them:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/crossing-the-line-browns/

We understand how bad going 1-31 over the past two seasons is, but what if I told you that the Browns have been less than 1% to perform as badly against the spread as they have over the last three years?

Ideally, ATS bets are a 50/50 proposition, so when you have a team that goes 13-34 (One Push) over three years, something is fundamentally wrong. My argument is that Vegas and the sports bettors simply can't find a way to give the Browns enough points.

Anyway, please give it a read and feel free to comment either in this thread or the comment section of the Article. If you really like it and are in an especially generous mood, share it on the socials! (Twitter, Facebook, Google+)

There is also a poll above, multiple options can be selected.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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Mission146
August 14th, 2018 at 11:35:09 AM permalink
IMHO, it should get back closer to normal this year. Betting against truly awful teams shows profit for a year or two, but then the team gets better and people find the value, meaning the books take away the value.

That being said, should they start say 0-3, I would consider betting against them as the players sooner or later will be spiritually broken even more than they are now.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
TomG
TomG
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Mission146
August 15th, 2018 at 6:40:51 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Ideally, ATS bets are a 50/50 proposition, so when you have a team that goes 13-34 (One Push) over three years, something is fundamentally wrong.



It feels like this is a biased analysis. The team that loses only covers the spread 16-17% of the time. The Browns were able to do it 23% of the time the past two years (plus a few more times they covered on parlay cards while losing off the board). There should be enough examples of teams going three straight years with 10 wins or fewer (out of 48) to compare the Browns to. What were their records against the spread? (Jaguars, Lions, Rams, Raiders all did it this century)
Wizard
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Wizard
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Mission146beachbumbabs
August 15th, 2018 at 9:07:30 AM permalink
I love an underdog. I think we should invest the Cooperation Game big pool money into bets on Browns money line.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
Mission146
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August 15th, 2018 at 11:24:40 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

It feels like this is a biased analysis. The team that loses only covers the spread 16-17% of the time. The Browns were able to do it 23% of the time the past two years (plus a few more times they covered on parlay cards while losing off the board). There should be enough examples of teams going three straight years with 10 wins or fewer (out of 48) to compare the Browns to. What were their records against the spread? (Jaguars, Lions, Rams, Raiders all did it this century)



If nothing else, I think that helps prove my point. This is especially true for the 2017 season, Vegas strongly believed the Browns would lose, in fact, they were only favored in one game. (-1 against IND)

Vegas had them as 6.5 point dogs, on average, for the entire season of 2017.

If you look at Wizard's chart, getting 6.5 points means you only have an estimated 29.7% probability of winning:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

That leads to an expected five games won (4.752), with three more games out of thirteen needed for the Browns to go 8-8 ATS. That would mean that they would have to lose and cover three times of the remaining eleven games in order to meet that 8-8 while only being expected to do so 1.87 times based on your 17-18%.

So, before you even get into what actually happened, the point spreads already inherently over favored the Browns ATS by a little more than one game.

I think that's what you end up with. I think you have a team that is more likely than average to beat the spread while still losing and Vegas doesn't quite know what to do with that. It would make inherent sense that if you had a balance like this:

Beat Spread and Win Game --- Beat Spread and Lose Game

That the balance would shift to the right side of that the greater the spread is. I don't know how much, but if you look at a spread like -1/+1, the only way for the underdog to beat the spread is either a tie game or to win outright and those kind of games are factoring into your 17-18% number.

In short, the Browns are not like other teams.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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Mission146
August 15th, 2018 at 11:51:30 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

It feels like this is a biased analysis. The team that loses only covers the spread 16-17% of the time. The Browns were able to do it 23% of the time the past two years (plus a few more times they covered on parlay cards while losing off the board). There should be enough examples of teams going three straight years with 10 wins or fewer (out of 48) to compare the Browns to. What were their records against the spread? (Jaguars, Lions, Rams, Raiders all did it this century)



This sounds like you are suggesting there is a correlation between a teamís record and their record ATS.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
billryan
billryan
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Mission146
August 15th, 2018 at 11:51:46 AM permalink
Bud announced a promo where Brown's fans get free beer after their first win. Genius idea for a franchise whose QB of the future was run out of the league for abusing alcohol, and whose star receiver was convicted of manslaughter while DWI.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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Mission146
August 15th, 2018 at 12:27:42 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Bud announced a promo where Brown's fans get free beer after their first win. Genius idea for a franchise whose QB of the future was run out of the league for abusing alcohol, and whose star receiver was convicted of manslaughter while DWI.

Also the team with fans that ruined the buzz for everyone by throwing plastic Miller Lite bottles on the field(in referee protest on MNF), and as a consequence, you cannot buy beer after the start of the 4th quarter.
I am a robot.
TomG
TomG
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Mission146
August 15th, 2018 at 3:37:00 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

In short, the Browns are not like other teams.



They are not like the other NFL teams of the past couple years -- that's obvious from their won-loss record. But they are like other teams from NFL history that have lost over 80% of their games. That's my theory. What data is there that goes against that theory?
billryan
billryan
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Mission146
August 15th, 2018 at 4:03:39 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Also the team with fans that ruined the buzz for everyone by throwing plastic Miller Lite bottles on the field(in referee protest on MNF), and as a consequence, you cannot buy beer after the start of the 4th quarter.



I thought Jet fans were responsible for that. One Monday night game, they lit some trash cans on fire and someone decided to see if he could kick a flaming can from the upper deck down onto the people in the rich seats.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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