2018 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)

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November 13th, 2018 at 2:49:29 PM permalink

Quote: michael99000
Tough to say which way the altitude affects the game.

Defenders tend to get tired/out of breath quicker. Field goal attempts travel farther in the air. Those would both favor the Over..

However,

Punts also travel farther.

At 63.5, if the traveling distance of a FG comes into play, then the game is almost certainly going under.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

unJon

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November 13th, 2018 at 2:49:32 PM permalink

Duplicate

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

unJon

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November 13th, 2018 at 2:49:33 PM permalink

Game moved. Line down.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

onenickelmiracle

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November 13th, 2018 at 3:29:26 PM permalink

And terms of the game I will stay away from this one most likely. Comparisons not made yet, may have to play.

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Romes

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November 13th, 2018 at 5:56:43 PM permalink

Quote: FleaStiff
Sure hope the full time AP works out.
Hope its not just a free two-dollar breakfast or something.

Wait, I thought free meals was all AP'ing was about???

Let's just say, we're off to a fantastic start =). Appreciate the encouragement.

Mission - No worries and I appreciate the correction. Again, I enjoy this competition and want to not just use defaults (even though I usually pick close to those). I have full plans to get picks in this week =). Thanks for your help.

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

JohnnyQ

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November 13th, 2018 at 6:05:58 PM permalink

Quote: Romes
Mission - No worries and I appreciate the correction. Again, I enjoy this competition and want to not just use defaults (even though I usually pick close to those). I have full plans to get picks in this week =). Thanks for your help.

Romes: I am counting on you to use the rest of the season to scratch you way out of 42 % to knock DJATC off the king of the hill position. Now get to work !

There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart

Ayecarumba

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November 13th, 2018 at 6:50:33 PM permalink

Quote: unJon
At 63.5, if the traveling distance of a FG comes into play, then the game is almost certainly going under.

The Rams were in Colorado for high altitude training in preparation for MEX, but now they will come home to smokey air from wildfires. Travel + smoke = under?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

onenickelmiracle

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November 13th, 2018 at 7:28:56 PM permalink

I have not been able to confirm the game has been moved through my Google searches as of some time ago.

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michael99000

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November 13th, 2018 at 10:00:38 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
I have not been able to confirm the game has been moved through my Google searches as of some time ago.

Put on ESPN or the NFL network. The news scrolls across the bottom of the screen about every 30 seconds for the past 7 hours

AxelWolf

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November 14th, 2018 at 12:55:44 AM permalink

Quote: Romes
Stories will be told eventually on GWAE

Why FFS?

Why educate the masses, casinos, and Darksiders?

I can see if its something long gone and will never return, but even then one must be careful.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

onenickelmiracle

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November 14th, 2018 at 8:51:39 AM permalink

Quote: michael99000
Put on ESPN or the NFL network. The news scrolls across the bottom of the screen about every 30 seconds for the past 7 hours

I wasn't home then, also didn't see the line off as had been mentioned, though it was true then the game had been moved, I just couldn't find it.

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onenickelmiracle

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November 14th, 2018 at 8:57:09 AM permalink

I had said I wouldn't put Oakland to win straight up the rest of the year, then they had to play Arizona. I still don't like Oakland because they are a mess, but they can defy such an absolute decision. Arizona is also bad, but not trying to be bad.

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onenickelmiracle

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November 15th, 2018 at 7:22:40 AM permalink

I'm probably going 40% this week, don't even know whom I'll pick, but doesn't matter as of now. Might have to pick a random number to see if I'll use my eventual picks or bet against them. I might even make the picks, flip on each game, probably the only way to get 100% this week.

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GWAE

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November 15th, 2018 at 8:37:12 AM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
I'm probably going 40% this week, don't even know whom I'll pick, but doesn't matter as of now. Might have to pick a random number to see if I'll use my eventual picks or bet against them. I might even make the picks, flip on each game, probably the only way to get 100% this week.

I am going to pick my game and then do the opposite.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

onenickelmiracle

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November 15th, 2018 at 9:41:22 AM permalink

Quote: GWAE
I am going to pick my game and then do the opposite.

Unlimited power!

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onenickelmiracle

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November 15th, 2018 at 10:13:18 AM permalink

RAMS -3.5
RAMS UNDER 63.5
TAMPA +1
CHICAGO -2.5
ARIZONA -5.5

I might play these or hope someone else does. Depends on what the coin wants to do.

Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Nov 15, 2018

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Mission146

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November 15th, 2018 at 8:01:33 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 11 Lines are as follows:

Panthers (-4.5) @ Lions (+4.5) O/U 49.5
Cowboys (+3) @ Falcons (-3) O/U 48.5
Bengals (-5.5) @ Ravens (+5.5) O/U 39.5
Vikings (+2.5) @ Bears (-2.5) O/U 44.5
Eagles (+8.5) @ Saints (-8.5) O/U 56
Titans (+1.5) @ Colts (-1.5) O/U 49
Texans (-3) @ Redskins (+3) O/U 42.5
Buccaneers (+1.5) @ Giants (-1.5) O/U 52
Broncos (+7) @ Chargers (-7) O/U 46.5
Raiders (+5) @ Cardinals (-5) O/U 40.5
Steelers (-5.5) @ Jaguars (+5.5) O/U 46.5
Chiefs (+3.5) @ Rams (-3.5) O/U 63.5

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Romes

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November 15th, 2018 at 8:03:13 PM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf
Why FFS?

Why educate the masses, casinos, and Darksiders?

I can see if its something long gone and will never return, but even then one must be careful.

Because it's literally nothing new, something casinos already check for, a one off occurrence that is a pretty interesting story? And yes, it's also long gone.

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

onenickelmiracle

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November 15th, 2018 at 9:16:43 PM permalink

Quote: Romes
Because it's literally nothing new, something casinos already check for, a one off occurrence that is a pretty interesting story? And yes, it's also long gone.

Are you going to talk about how twice you wait for games to be over before you complain about how the picks are wrong?

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AxelWolf

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November 15th, 2018 at 10:23:59 PM permalink

Quote: Romes
Because it's literally nothing new, something casinos already check for, a one off occurrence that is a pretty interesting story? And yes, it's also long gone.

If you are talking about what I think you are talking about then that one may be long gone, however, it can and will occur again. No need to educate others.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

ZenKinG

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November 16th, 2018 at 2:44:25 AM permalink

Sports betting is -EV. But i do like this thread. Cool how you have organized everyones records and made a spreadsheet out of it. Kudos to the OP

Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.

onenickelmiracle

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November 16th, 2018 at 8:55:35 AM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
RAMS -3.5
RAMS UNDER 63.5
TAMPA +1
CHICAGO -2.5
ARIZONA -5.5

I might play these or hope someone else does. Depends on what the coin wants to do.

Maybe I should have used another coin, the coin was schitzophrenic I think. Watch these picks go 80%, if you get the coin to screw it up just right, you're guaranteed 100% for the week.

Coin said I should make a new set of picks and you should choose from these

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unJon

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November 18th, 2018 at 4:05:55 AM permalink

Mission I hope everything is ok with you. Worried as I didn�t get my PM reminder last night.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

Johnzimbo

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November 18th, 2018 at 8:49:14 AM permalink

Quote: Johnzimbo
After having three great weeks to start the season I am now sucking as expected. Need to lay off the Ravens, I am always wrong when I pick them.

Well jeez, I had to take them again this week (as did I bet 80% of you) since the line was an error. and I couldn't pass up the +EV spot.

SOOPOO

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November 18th, 2018 at 8:53:28 AM permalink

Quote: Johnzimbo
Well jeez, I had to take them again this week (as did I bet 80% of you) since the line was an error. and I couldn't pass up the +EV spot.

You are aware I may be their starting QB today?

Hopefully we get a clarification before kickoff. Mission made a typo. Does the typo odds count, or is it the odds from the website Mission uses? I can imagine this will lead to controversy.

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November 18th, 2018 at 8:54:02 AM permalink

Quote: Johnzimbo
Well jeez, I had to take them again this week (as did I bet 80% of you) since the line was an error. and I couldn't pass up the +EV spot.

oh god, I didn't notice the sign error in the Ravens line that Mission posted.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

Mission146

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November 18th, 2018 at 8:55:52 AM permalink

Quote: unJon
Mission I hope everything is ok with you. Worried as I didn�t get my PM reminder last night.

I�m good, thanks! We stayed at my Mom�s last night and I forgot my laptop. For the same reason, the Picks will be up just a little after one.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 18th, 2018 at 8:59:55 AM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
You are aware I may be their starting QB today?

Hopefully we get a clarification before kickoff. Mission made a typo. Does the typo odds count, or is it the odds from the website Mission uses? I can imagine this will lead to controversy.

It will go by the lines posted in both this and the official thread. I didn�t even make a typo, I just copy/paste into Miplet�s thing. I don�t even really look at the Lines because it hasn�t been wrong, I guess I�ll have to start!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 18th, 2018 at 9:03:39 AM permalink

Actually, it was VegasInsider:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/bengals-@-ravens.cfm/date/11-18-18/time/1300#BT

If you look at 11/15, the Ravens +5.5 is what they had for a consensus line at the time I put up the lines. Now I feel bad for thinking it might have been a mistake with Miplet�s program!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Johnzimbo

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November 18th, 2018 at 9:10:03 AM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
You are aware I may be their starting QB today?

Hey, I'll take Lamar Jackson or even RG3 over Joe "Sleepwalks through some games" Flacco.

This is the true LOCK OF THE CENTURY!!! :)

unJon

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November 18th, 2018 at 9:10:04 AM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
oh god, I didn't notice the sign error in the Ravens line that Mission posted.

I didn�t notice it either. But I did notice the total was way off.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

onenickelmiracle

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November 18th, 2018 at 9:13:07 AM permalink

I took Ravens but am not confident. Almost hope it doesn't cover so I gain ground against those confident.

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onenickelmiracle

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November 18th, 2018 at 9:13:07 AM permalink

I took Ravens but am not confident. Almost hope it doesn't cover so I gain ground against those confident. I did see it online, don't know how it's a consensus when no books listed offered it.

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Mission146

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November 18th, 2018 at 9:53:30 AM permalink

I think the consensus was meant to be Ravens -5.5.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

miplet

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November 18th, 2018 at 10:15:09 AM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
I took Ravens but am not confident. Almost hope it doesn't cover so I gain ground against those confident. I did see it online, don't know how it's a consensus when no books listed offered it.

It was listed here at the bottom as Cin -5.5 and over under as 39.5. The program they use for VI consensus probably defaulted to that every early line.

�Man Babes� #AxelFabulous

onenickelmiracle

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November 18th, 2018 at 10:20:19 AM permalink

Quote: Mission146
I think the consensus was meant to be Ravens -5.5.

Oh I thought it flipped because Flacco was out. When he was supposed to be playing, Baltimore was -4. Now I look, the line is Baltimore -6.5, so that makes sense what you said in light of that, but not in my mind for the game.

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gordonm888
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November 18th, 2018 at 10:27:10 AM permalink

I was working off of another site and decided I did not want to pick the Ravens-Bengals game, Thus, when I looked at Mission's posted line, I only checked the lines on the 5-7 games that I was considering.

What a disaster. I assume most of the contestants will pick Ravens +5.5-Confidence and Ravens Over 39.5. So that's a high percentage 3-point boost that the rest of us will have missed out on.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

Mission146

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November 18th, 2018 at 10:51:21 AM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 11 Picks are as follows:

RisingDough:
Skips Week 11

Rigondeaux:
Colts -1.5
Bengals -5.5
Bears -2.5
Buccaneers +1.5
Cardinals -5

Michael99000:
Panthers OVER 49.5
Cowboys UNDER 48.5
Bengals UNDER 39.5
Vikings OVER 44.5
Eagles UNDER 56 CONFIDENCE

Odiousgambit:
Lions +4.5
Ravens +5.5
Giants UNDER 52
Buccaneers +1.5
Broncos +7

Joeman:
Cardinals OVER 40.5 -Confidence
Giants -1.5
Bears UNDER 44.5
Titans +1.5
Saints -8.5

terapined:
Ravens +5.5
Texans -3
Bucs +1.5
Eagles +8.5
Broncos +7

Onenickelmiracle:
Ravens +5.5
Vikings +2.5
Raiders over 40.5
Texans over 42.5 confidence
Chargers -7

Fleastiff:
Titans + 1.5
Titans OVER 49
Buccaneers + 1.5
Jaguars +5.5
Chiefs +3.5

GWAE:
Eagles OVER 56
Saints (-8.5)
Redskins (+3)
Buccaneers (+1.5)
Steelers (-5.5) conf

BeachBumBabs:
Vikings +2.5 - confidence
Vikings OVER
Bucs + 1.5
Colts -1.5
Chiefs UNDER 63.5

EdCollins:
Redskins +3 Confidence
Titans +1.5
Chargers -7
Cardinals -5
Saints -8.5

JohnZimbo:
Ravens +5.5 confidence
Cardinals under 40.5
Falcons under 48.5
Vikings +2.5
Chiefs +3.5

scolist:
Steelers -5.5
Bears -2.5
Giants -1.5
Chargers -7
Panthers -4.5

PlayYourCardsRight
Bears -2.5
Colts -1.5
Texans -3
Cardinals -5
Steelers -5.5

SOOPOO:
Chiefs +3.5 Confidence
Steelers -5.5
Eagles +8.5
Vikings +2.5
Cowboys +3

Gordonm888:
Panthers -4.5
Falcons -3
Colts -1.5
Cardinals -5
Steelers -5.5

JW17:
Broncos+7 confidence
Rams -3.5
Colts -1.5
Falcons-3
Raiders +5

Wizard:
Falcons (-3)
Eagles (+8.5)
Redskins (+3)
Broncos (+7) confidence
Chiefs (+3.5)

Prozema:
Lions +4.5
Falcons -3
Ravens +5.5-Confidence
Ravens Over 39.5
Giants -1.5

FourFiveFace:
Panthers -4.5
Ravens +5.5-Confidence
Broncos +7
Raiders +5
Steelers -5.5

Sparty10k:
Vikings +2.5
Titans +1.5�confidence
Redskins +3
Broncos +7
Chiefs +3.5

AyeCarumba:
Panthers UNDER 49.5
Cowboys UNDER 48.5
Broncos UNDER 46.5 -Confidence
Cardinals -5
Chiefs UNDER 63.5

Romes:
Bears -2.5
Colts -1.5
Giants -1.5
Rams -3.5
Rams UNDER 63.5 CONFIDENCE

kuma:
Ravens (+5.5) -- Confidence
Bengals (OVER 39.5)
Eagles (+8.5)
Broncos (+7)
Bears (-2.5)

DJATC:
Bengals OVER 39.5 - CONFIDENCE
Eagles +8.5
Titans OVER 49
Giants -1.5
Chiefs UNDER 63.5

MaxPen:
Saints -8.5
Colts UNDER 49
Buccaneers +1.5
Raiders +5 (confidence)
Rams OVER 63.5

Bruce1:
Ravens (+5.5)
Vikings (+2.5)
Titans (+1.5)
Redskins (+3)
Chiefs (+3.5)

unJon:
Cowboys OVER 48.5
Bengals OVER 39.5-confidence
Eagles +8.5
Titans OVER 49
Giants OVER 52

miplet:
Ravens +5.5-confidence
Ravens OVER 39.5
Eagles +8.5
Giants -1.5
Cardinals -5

JohnnyQ:
Lions (+4.5) CONFIDENCE
Ravens (+5.5)
Eagles (+8.5)
Cardinals (-5)
Rams (-3.5)

IndyJeffrey:
Panthers -4.5
Bears -2.5
Titans +1.5 - confidence
Chargers -7
Raiders +5

GenWyzgy:
Falcons -3
Bears -2.5
Rams -3.5
Titans Under 49
Chargers -7

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 18th, 2018 at 10:52:17 AM permalink

I believe we're missing a few, I'll figure out who and check for default picks for them a little bit later on.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

MidwestAP

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November 18th, 2018 at 11:14:32 AM permalink

Yes, I should have default picks which would be:

Ravens (+5.5)
Eagles (+8.5)
Broncos (+7)
Raiders (+5)
Jaguars (+5.5)

Mission146

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November 18th, 2018 at 11:23:20 AM permalink

Thanks! That�s one made easy!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

FleaStiff

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November 18th, 2018 at 12:09:52 PM permalink

Looks like I won't win the You Are In Last Place prize, nor will I win the You Are Too Average To Be Interesting prize.
Is there any prize for 'At least you didn't quit'?

Oh for the days of that brackets contest where at least for a while I was in the running for a bottle of champagne
for posting a tennis score as my tie-breaker.

GWAE

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November 18th, 2018 at 12:18:24 PM permalink

Looks like an 0-6 week for me

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

SOOPOO

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November 18th, 2018 at 12:22:26 PM permalink

Before the season I was considering making bets against any specific player hitting a certain percentage, for example the Wiz won't hit 55% or something like that. In retrospect, since there is no protection against a grossly incorrect line being posted, in this case two this week, I am glad I did not make such a bet.

beachbumbabs

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November 18th, 2018 at 12:23:09 PM permalink

Quote: GWAE
Looks like an 0-6 week for me

Didn't you do your magic and then fade all your picks this week?

Do do that voodoo that you do so well, dude.

Can't imagine why you're not riding the karma.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

onenickelmiracle