2018 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)

Mission's Monday Vitriol Takes

All Games in Fifty Words, or Fewer

Eagles 34 @ Giants 13: The Giants had 22 more yards than the Eagles in total offense, which I don't think anyone would guess from this score. The Giants just can't convert third downs. Could you imagine if Barkley had an O-Line? He's great without one!

Buccaneers 29 @ Falcons 34: The Falcons almost blew a big lead, whoever heard of them doing such a thing? Tampa Bay gained nearly 100 more yards in total offense, but the two picks thrown by Jameis Winston were enough to enable Atlanta to hang on.

Chargers 38 @ Browns 14: F Dean Spanos. It's not often we get to see a QB perform worse in garbage time than when the game is competitive, but Cleveland's hero, the next Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield did just that. Barely over 5 YPA, 1 TD against 2 Picks, less than a 50% completion rate...

Colts 34 @ Jets 42: This was a game that happened.

Seahawks 27 @ Raiders 3: The Raiders are getting outscored by 11 points per game. Gruden still making 10M on a per win basis. They might unload Carr next year? This team was one or two moves from being legit contenders last year, why burn it to the ground? MODRA---Make Oakland Del Rio Again!

Panthers 17 @ Redskins 23: Great game between two contenders in middle of the pack Divisions. Field Goals off of Fumble Recoveries were the difference in this game. Exciting final drive.

Bills 13 @ Texans 20: Josh Allen sucked, then got injured to be replaced by the worst quarterback in the NFL, Nathan Peterman. In six NFL appearances, Peterman's thrown nine picks, which represents over 10% of his passes. His career QB RATE is 29.9. He did throw the game winning pass...for the Texans.

Cardinals 17 @ Vikings 27: The Cardinals converted zero third downs, mainly because Josh Rosen is their QB, not that Bradford would have done any better. If I were Minnesota, my concern would be not winning by an even bigger margin.

Steelers 28 @ Bengals 21: This was just a great game complete with everything you want, physicality, huge plays including a couple of incredible circus catches, most notably Smith Schuster's flipping second quarter grab simultaneously setting up a TD AND negating a would be interception. Also, the Steelers are finally no longer tied with Cleveland.

Bears 28 @ Dolphins 31: It looked like the Bears' defense of old until yesterday, giving up over 500 yards and allowing Brock Friggin' Osweiler to put up three TD passes. I thought Osweiler would be a real estate agent by now, or maybe the starter for the Bills. Miami could be for real.

Rams 23 @ Broncos 20: 6-0, and then there was one. The Broncos may have solved the Case Keenum puzzle at Mile High, but the high altitude didn't take Todd Gurley's breath away as he rushed for 208 yards and two TD's.

Ravens 21 @ Titans 0: Brett Kern punted for more yards than both QB's combined accounted for in the air. The defense may be quite respectable, but Tennessee is still the worst three win team in the NFL right now. You're not going to the playoffs averaging 14.5 scored PPG. Well, maybe in that division.

Jaguars 7 @ Cowboys 40: The Jaguars are good, right? Like, decent? Jacksonville looked like they were playing against their own defense...the one from last year.

Chiefs 40 @ Patriots 43: One punt the entire game. Pretty simple: Every once in a while, New England's defense did more than nothing. That's all. Anyone remember a few weeks ago when they were talking about it being over for the Patriots? Then they beat the unbeaten Dolphins, now the unbeaten Chiefs...

49ers @ Packers (Tonight): The Over/Under is 46, I saw. Is that for the game total or just the Packers? Oh, same thing? I don't know what's on TV anymore, but any of the other channels should have something more entertaining than this will be.

Comments stimulated by Mission's comments.

1. In college, Nate Peterman was a sophomore backup QB for the Tennessee Vols who became a minor legend. His college debut came when Tennessee's starting QB got injured and Nate entered the game in the 3rd quarter with a 10 point lead against Florida. He played less than 13 minutes and he personally fumbled the ball away twice and also threw an interception to a lineman. I think Florida scored 21 points off his turnovers and Tenn lost the game. It was literally the worst QB performance that Tennessee fans had ever seen. He was replaced by 3rd-string QB Joshua Dobbs and barely played again that season. He then transferred to Pittsburgh, where some coach must have a magic touch because he became their starter and played well enough to get drafted.

IMO, Peterman has physical skills and apparently looks good in practice, but completely lacks the mental toughness to be a QB.

2. Which was the biggest surprise: Miami's competence (with Osweiler) or the Titans' complete collapse or the Jaguars-Dallas game outcome? When these kind of bizarre turnarounds happen, no analyst is ever able to explain why. That's part of why we're so bad at predicting the NFL: we just shrug our shoulders at these unexpected wild swings and never try to understand them.

3, Everyone has been gushing about Pat Mahomes, but Tyreek Hill is astonishing. If Mahomes, Hill and Kareem Hunt all stay healthy and if Eric Berry and one or two other injured KC defensive stars return, KC will be hard to beat in the playoffs. But that's a big IF.

1. That’s about what I make of it. The only reason I can think of for Peterman to even be in the NFL as a backup is that he’s the worst QB in the league backing up possibly the second-worst QB in the league. It makes sense in an almost masochistic sort of way.

Cool Tennessee story, btw! I wasn’t aware of that as I don’t really follow college football. I’ll think about it if they ever let the players have endorsement deals.

2. My answer is Jaguars-Dallas, what’s yours? Tennessee was fine on defense and the Dolphins are pretty good this year. Osweiler also threw two picks, let’s not forget.

3. I agree with that. Hill has been amazing this year, could you imagine if he was as good at football as he is at beating up pregnant women, though?

Quote: gordonm888

I am orbiting the bowl and going down the drain. 0-4 and waiting on the final indignity.

Bengals, with some help from the refs, bungled the OT. Pats missed covering by 1/2 of a point.

And DJatc continued his pristine Virgin Mary streak. And OneNickleMiracle is knocking on my mother's door.

lolllll. Call me daddy.

Quote: Mission146

I thought Osweiler would be a real estate agent by now, or maybe the starter for the Bills

Now THAT's FUNNY !

It should be on a plaque somewhere, or perhaps at least a coffee mug ?

Quote: djatc

Might go 6-0 depending on this rams game

Hold your applause yet another week

OMG, this esteemed member is the SCOTT STERLING of NFL Picks ! ! !

But having said that, I would still bet the field to win this little ol' contest vs DJATC. "I'm a man of means by no means", so any takers for a reasonable amount ?

a) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oY2nVQNlUB8

b) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbUc5nsAPTo

Week 6 Results and Current Standings

Mission146 (2-2)
Chargers PK (win)
Browns UNDER 45 (loss)
Patriots -3.5 (loss)
Patriots OVER 59.5 (win)
Vikings -10 (push)

Rigondeaux (3-2)
Dolphins +3.5 (win)
Browns PK (loss)
Jets -2.5 (win)
Bengals -2 (loss)
Bills +10 (win)

Michael99000 (3-3)
Texans -10 (loss)
Titans +2.5 (loss)
Cowboys UNDER 40.5 (loss)
Jets -2.5 (win)
Cardinals OVER 43 Confidence (win)

IndyJeffrey (6-0)
Chargers PK (win)
Redskins -1 (win)
Jets -2.5 Confidence (win)
Seahawks -2.5 (win)
Cowboys +3 (win)

fleastiff (1-4)
Jaguars OVER 40.5 (win)
Bills OVER 41 (loss)
49ers UNDER 46.5 (loss)
Ravens OVER 41.5 (loss)
Buccaneers +3 (loss)

Joeman (3-3)
Chargers PK (win)
Rams -7 Confidence (loss)
Falcons -3 (win)
Colts +2.5 (loss)
Bills +10 (win)

TroopScott (2-4)
Browns PK (loss)
Chargers OVER 45 (win)
Bills OVER 41 (loss)
Bills +10 (win)
Titans +2.5 Confidence (loss)

terapined (2-2)
Panthers +1 (loss)
Bucs +3 (loss)
Ravens -2.5 (win)
Bills +10 (win)
Cardinals +10 (push)

GWAE (5-1)
Dolphins (+3.5) (win)
Redskins (-1) (win)
Colts (+2.5) (loss)
Falcons (-3) (win)
Seahawks (-2.5) Confidence (win)

JohnZimbo (3-2)
Patriots -3.5 (loss)
Jags UNDER 40.5 (loss)
Broncos +7 (win)
Broncos UNDER 52 (win)
Dolphins +3.5 (win)

JohnnyQ (5-0)
Cardinals (+10) (push)
Dolphins (+3.5) Confidence (win)
Bills (+10) (win)
Cowboys (+3) (win)
49ers (+9.5) (win)

RisingDough (2-4)
Browns Pk (loss)
Steelers UNDER 52.5 (win)
Raiders +2.5 (loss)
Jaguars UNDER 40.5 Confidence (loss)
Patriots OVER 59.5 (win)

Genwyzgy (1-4)
Panthers OVER 44.5 (loss)
Steelers OVER 52.5 (loss)
Chargers UNDER 45 (loss)
Panthers +1 (loss)
Seahawks UNDER 48 (win)

PlayYourCardsRight (4-2)
Chargers PK Confidence (win)
Bears -3.5 (loss)
Falcons -3 (win)
Jaguars -3 (loss)
Chiefs +3.5 (win)

Odiousgambit (3-2)
Dolphins +3.5 (win)
Raiders +2.5 (loss)
Broncos +7 (win)
Cowboys +3 (win)
Packers -9.5 (loss)

GordonM888 (1-4)
Browns PK (loss)
Redskins -1 (win)
Bengals -2 (loss)
Patriots -3.5 (loss)
Packers -9.5 (loss)

Scolist (1-4)
Rams -7 (loss)
Buccaneers UNDER 57.5 (loss)
Bears -3.5 (loss)
Bengals -2 (loss)
Bills +10 (win)

Romes (1-5)
Browns PK (loss)
Bears -3.5 (loss)
Panthers +1 (loss)
Falcons -3 (win)
Patriots -3.5 Confidence (loss)

SOOPOO (5-1)
Bills + 10 Confidence (win)
Browns PK (loss)
Chiefs + 3.5 (win)
49ers + 9.5 (win)
Seahawks -2.5 (win)

Wizard (4-2)
Bears (-3.5) (loss)
Colts (+2.5) (loss)
Seahawks (-2.5) (win)
Broncos (+7) Confidence (win)
Ravens (-2.5) (win)

Ayecarumba (3-3)
Bills UNDER 41 Confidence (win)
Patriots -3.5 (loss)
49ers +9.5 (win)
Rams -7 (loss)
Panthers +1 (loss)

unJon (5-1)
Panthers +1 (loss)
Steelers +2 (win)
Steelers UNDER 52.5 (win)
Chargers OVER 45 Confidence (win)
Jets OVER 45 (win)

Prozema (2-2)
Vikings -10 (push)
Bears -3.5 (loss)
Colts OVER 45 (win)
Steelers UNDER 52.5 (win)
Texans -10 (loss)

Vegasrider (3-3)
Titans +2.5 Confidence (loss)
Cowboys +3 (win)
Broncos +7 (win)
Jaguars UNDER 40.5 (loss)
Falcons -3 (win)

Sparty10k (4-2)
Browns Pick (loss)
Redskins -1 (win)
Seahawks UNDER 48–Confidence (win)
Chiefs +3.5 (win)
Chiefs UNDER 59.5 (loss)

JW17 (4-1)
Broncos +7 Confidence (win)
49ers +9.5 (win)
Bills +10 (win)
Browns pk (loss)
Cardinals +10 (push)

EdCollins (3-3)
Bills +10 (win)
Steelers +2 (win)
Browns pick (loss)
Chiefs +3.5 (win)
Chiefs UNDER Confidence (loss)

DJATC (6-0)
Cardinals OVER 43 (win)
Browns OVER 45 (win)
Colts OVER 45 Confidence (win)
Steelers UNDER 52.5 (win)
Rams UNDER 52 (win)

kuma (4-2)
Browns pk Confidence (loss)
Chargers OVER 45 (win)
Colts OVER 45 (win)
Bengals UNDER 52.5 (win)
Ravens -2.5 (win)

rainman (5-1)
Cowboys +3 conf. (win)
Raiders +2.5 (loss)
Dolphins +3.5 (win)
Steelers +2 (win)
Chiefs +3.5 (win)

Onenickelmiracle (3-1)
Vikings (-10) Confidence (push)
Colts (+2.5) (loss)
Seahawks UNDER 48.5 (win)
Bills (+10) (win)
Broncos (+7) (win)

BeachBumBabs (2-3)
Chiefs +3.5 Confidence (win)
Raiders + 2.5 (loss)
Browns PK (loss)
Jaguars -3 (loss)
Vikings -10 (push)

FourFiveFace (6-0)
Redskins -1 (win)
Falcons -3 Confidence (win)
Bills +10 (win)
Broncos +7 (win)
Chiefs +3.5 (win)

VCUSkyhawk (2-4)
Brown PK (loss)
Raiders +2.5 (loss)
Cowboys +3 Confidence (win)
Patriots -3.5 (loss)
Colts +2.5 (loss)

Bruce1 (3-2)
Panthers (+1) (loss)
Falcons (-3) (win)
Bills (+10) (win)
Rams (-7) (loss)
49ers (+9.5) (win)

MidwestAP (4-0)
Cardinals +10 (push)
Bills +10 (win)
49ers +9.5 (win)
Broncos +7 (win)
Chiefs +3.5 (win)


Regular Picks: 84-65
Confidence Picks: 16-7

Name	Wins	Losses	%
DJatc	26	3	89.66%
JohnZimbo	22	9	70.97%
GWAE	24	10	70.59%
kuma	22	13	62.86%
JohnnyQ	21	13	61.76%
RisingDough	21	14	60.00%
onenickelmiracle	20	14	58.82%
Rigondeaux	17	13	56.67%
Wizard	20	16	55.56%
GenWyzgy	17	14	54.84%
MidwestAP	15	13	53.57%
OdiousGambit	16	14	53.33%
Prozema	15	14	51.72%
Terapined	15	14	51.72%
Bruce1	16	15	51.61%
IndyJeffrey	17	16	51.52%
FourFiveFace	18	18	50.00%
UnJon	18	18	50.00%
Gordonm888	15	16	48.39%
Romes	17	19	47.22%
Fleastiff	14	16	46.67%
MaxPen	13	15	46.43%
EdCollins	15	18	45.45%
Miplet	13	16	44.83%
Mission146	13	16	44.83%
PlayYourCardsRight	14	18	43.75%
Michael99000	12	16	42.86%
Rainman	11	16	40.74%
Vegasrider	14	22	38.89%
Joeman	12	20	37.50%
SOOPOO	13	22	37.14%
Sparty10k	13	22	37.14%
Troopscott	10	18	35.71%
BeachBumBabs	12	22	35.29%
JW17	11	22	33.33%
VCUSkyhawk	9	19	32.14%
Ayecarumba	10	25	28.57%
Scolist	6	18	25.00%
Totals	587	617	48.75%

Record of Skip Weeks:

DJatc - Week 5
MaxPen - Week 6
Michael99000 - Week 1
Miplet - Week 6
Rainman - Week 5
scolist - Week 1
TroopScott - Week 3
VCUSkyhawk - Week 4

DJ -- I just have to "well done." The chances of getting at least 26 out of 29 coin flips right are 1 in 131,264. Granted, the actual odds aren't that long, but still, that is very impressive.

At this point a good prop bet would be whether DJ wins or the field.

Quote: Wizard

DJ -- I just have to "well done." The chances of getting at least 26 out of 29 coin flips right are 1 in 131,264. Granted, the actual odds aren't that long, but still, that is very impressive.

At this point a good prop bet would be whether DJ wins or the field.

hopefully you guys all parlayed the bird teams. cards would have pushed but no losses.

Quote: Wizard

DJ -- I just have to "well done." The chances of getting at least 26 out of 29 coin flips right are 1 in 131,264. Granted, the actual odds aren't that long, but still, that is very impressive.

At this point a good prop bet would be whether DJ wins or the field.

I’d put the field at -150 at this moment.

It's obvious the NFL is rigged and DJ is in on it. ;)

Quote: onenickelmiracle

It's obvious the NFL is rigged and DJ is in on it. ;)

Al Jazeerer has some sheik in charge of all cricket gaming, so who knows?

I fell into negative territory (below fifty percent) and my selection procedures for football have been as memorable as my bracket selections were. Indeed I saw the name Jaguars only recently and bet it due to the name; hadn't even seen it on the list before.

Quote: michael99000

I’d put the field at -150 at this moment.

I'd take djatc easy at +150. In fact, if anyone wants to bet, I'll take djatc (against the field) at +120 for $50 or $100 with the bet voided if he ever takes an 0-5 week because of a missed/late/voided submission per the contest rules.

Does anyone recall what winning percentages have been in years past?

If I were DJ, I would stop using confidence picks at this point, to reduce volatility (shut up Wiz!). He already used his bye week, so he has 11 weeks of picks to go, or 55 picks. Let's just say he makes 56 and they are split 50/50 between wins and losses. His overall record would be 54-31 = 63.5%.

However, I think DJ knows the usual tricks to improve on 50/50. I think 55/45 is conservative for a good picker. If he can go 30-25 the rest of the season, then his overall record will be 56-28 = 66.7%.

Of course, he could do badly and somebody else could do extremely well. A simulation would be the appropriate tool for questions like this. Not having done one, my educated guess would be to lay odds on DJ.

Quote: Wizard

Does anyone recall what winning percentages have been in years past?

If I were DJ, I would stop using confidence picks at this point, to reduce volatility (shut up Wiz!). He already used his bye week, so he has 11 weeks of picks to go, or 55 picks. Let's just say he makes 56 and they are split 50/50 between wins and losses. His overall record would be 54-31 = 63.5%.

However, I think DJ knows the usual tricks to improve on 50/50. I think 55/45 is conservative for a good picker. If he can go 30-25 the rest of the season, then his overall record will be 56-28 = 66.7%.

Of course, he could do badly and somebody else could do extremely well. A simulation would be the appropriate tool for questions like this. Not having done one, my educated guess would be to lay odds on DJ.

Lol, shut up Wiz, I was trying to get a favorable price!

Winners from past years:

2012 Wizard (71.26%)
2013 AyeCarumba (58.62%)
2014 Wizard (70.00%)
2015 Ed Collins (59.04%)
2016 Wizard (63.41%)
2017 MidwestAP (61.18%)

Quote: MidwestAP

Winners from past years:

2012 Wizard (71.26%)
2013 AyeCarumba (58.62%)
2014 Wizard (70.00%)
2015 Ed Collins (59.04%)
2016 Wizard (63.41%)
2017 MidwestAP (61.18%)

Thank you.

Quote: Wizard

Thank you.

Where would you expect a random picking player to land in a game like this?

With random picks over a whole 17 week season ? 50.0 +/- 4ish percent. No math, just a guess. With 90 % probability. Another guess !

Quote: JohnnyQ

With random picks over a whole 17 week season ? 50.0 +/- 4ish percent. No math, just a guess. With 90 % probability. Another guess !

Interesting. We have a lot of outliers in this game.

90% - 25% range...

1 = heads (win)
0 = tails (loss)
.25 = variance

17 weeks x 5 picks x .25 = +/-21 picks (and change).
17 weeks x 5 picks = 85 total

If that's right, the winner should be about 75% and the loser should be about 25%?

Coins rarely tie. :-/

Quote: MidwestAP

.....I'll take djatc (against the field) at +120 for $50 or $100 with the bet voided if he ever takes an 0-5 week because of a missed/late/voided submission per the contest rules.

Well, despite the Wiz's dire prognostications, you take djatc against the field at + 140 for $ 50. And since I am not a sports bettor, correct me if I am wrong, but I bet $ 50 that the field wins, and if they do, I win 1.4 x 50 = $ 70 ? Final offer. Yay or Nay.

Valid for the first response only, cuz "I'm a man of means by no means....".

Can I bet the field? Whatever amount is ok

Quote: JohnnyQ

Well, despite the Wiz's dire prognostications, you take djatc against the field at + 140 for $ 50. And since I am not a sports bettor, correct me if I am wrong, but I bet $ 50 that the field wins, and if they do, I win 1.4 x 50 = $ 70 ? Final offer. Yay or Nay.

Valid for the first response only, cuz "I'm a man of means by no means....".

Not exactly, I was l looking at djatc at +120, meaning that if we bet $50, and he holds on to win, then I win $60, otherwise you win $50

What are the odds on djatc vs field?
I’ll take djatc at +150.

Bet would be on condition that djatc not f***ing around and missing a week and gets auto-eliminated or whatever.

Quote: RS

What are the odds on djatc vs field?
I’ll take djatc at +150.

Bet would be on condition that djatc not f***ing around and missing a week and gets auto-eliminated or whatever.

Good luck with that, I've already offered to take djatc for +120, same conditions

Quote: MidwestAP

Good luck with that, I've already offered to take djatc for +120, same conditions

I'll take djatc at +120, too.

The worst part of this is that DJACs forum bets are usually my IRL bets so I can only root for him to loose by screwing up.

Quote: MidwestAP

Not exactly, I was l looking at djatc at +120, meaning that if we bet $50, and he holds on to win, then I win $60, otherwise you win $50

Thanks for the clarification, sports-betting terms are new and slightly confusing to me. But I think I get it now.

So if this has finally sunk in to my thick skull, my offer is that I want to bet the field at +140 ( for up to $ 50 total ).

So we are not even in the same ballpark. Given Wiz's analysis, it doesn't sound to me that your offer to take djatc at +120 has found the right balance. We are all looking for a "good" bet, which is pretty much Wiz's tagline.

Quote: Wizard

If I were DJ, I would stop using confidence picks at this point, to reduce volatility (shut up Wiz!). He already used his bye week, so he has 11 weeks of picks to go, or 55 picks. Let's just say he makes 56 and they are split 50/50 between wins and losses. His overall record would be 54-31 = 63.5%.

However, I think DJ knows the usual tricks to improve on 50/50. I think 55/45 is conservative for a good picker. If he can go 30-25 the rest of the season, then his overall record will be 56-28 = 66.7%.

Of course, he could do badly and somebody else could do extremely well. A simulation would be the appropriate tool for questions like this. Not having done one, my educated guess would be to lay odds on DJ.

Quote: JohnnyQ

Thanks for the clarification, sports-betting terms are new and slightly confusing to me. But I think I get it now.

So if this has finally sunk in to my thick skull, my offer is that I want to bet the field at +140 ( for up to $ 50 total ).

So we are not even in the same ballpark. Given Wiz's analysis, it doesn't sound to me that your offer to take djatc at +120 has found the right balance. We are all looking for a "good" bet, which is pretty much Wiz's tagline.

Quote: Wizard

If I were DJ, I would stop using confidence picks at this point, to reduce volatility (shut up Wiz!). He already used his bye week, so he has 11 weeks of picks to go, or 55 picks. Let's just say he makes 56 and they are split 50/50 between wins and losses. His overall record would be 54-31 = 63.5%.

However, I think DJ knows the usual tricks to improve on 50/50. I think 55/45 is conservative for a good picker. If he can go 30-25 the rest of the season, then his overall record will be 56-28 = 66.7%.

Of course, he could do badly and somebody else could do extremely well. A simulation would be the appropriate tool for questions like this. Not having done one, my educated guess would be to lay odds on DJ.

I’ll lay 115 on djatc

Maybe we should have a different contest in which we all pick each week which NFL Picks contestants will finish in the top five and bottom five for that week. And, of course, betting on whether DJatc or the Field will win the overall contest.

DJ post your picks early so I can bet them on Saturday.

Quote: RS

I’ll lay 115 on djatc

Well now the discussion has moved a little bit away from fantasy land.

BUT let's take a look at this, shall we ? If DJATC goes 0-5 and 2nd place JohnZimbo goes 6-0 this week, guess what ? DJ is still in 1st place.

Hmmmm..... So I'll pass on your odds. So far I don't see anyone lined up to take them.

Remember the nuggets, he was so brave quitting so easily, I would not bet on him.

Whatever RS bets I'll do my best to do the opposite

Does anyone have historical stats on djatc picks from prior years? Maybe that would loosen up someone's wallet?

Quote: RS

...I’ll lay 115 on djatc

I might be willing to book action with DJ vs the field at -160 for betting DJ (you said you want this bet, I'll take the field at +160 essentially).

Quote: prozema

Does anyone have historical stats on djatc picks from prior years? Maybe that would loosen up someone's wallet?

He’s never won a single pick on this game in prior years, if I’m not mistaken.


@Romes, idk if I like them odds at 160. I’ve already gone from +20 to -15 on my side. You wanna go down a bit and negotiate?

Quote: RS

He’s never won a single pick on this game in prior years, if I’m not mistaken.


@Romes, idk if I like them odds at 160. I’ve already gone from +20 to -15 on my side. You wanna go down a bit and negotiate?

I am undefeated from when this damn thing started up until 2018 nub

Quote: RS

He’s never won a single pick on this game in prior years, if I’m not mistaken.


@Romes, idk if I like them odds at 160. I’ve already gone from +20 to -15 on my side. You wanna go down a bit and negotiate?

My offer is still good, at least for today:

Quote: JohnnyQ

Thanks for the clarification, sports-betting terms are new and slightly confusing to me. But I think I get it now.

So if this has finally sunk in to my thick skull, my offer is that I want to bet the field at +140 ( for up to $ 50 total )

. And to make sure I FINALLY UNDERSTAND SPORTS BETTING LINGO, ie, I wager $50 to win $ 70.

Question. Is he still footing my bets for me? :) I told a certain somebody that I wanted him to "Take my place," so to speak. Is he still doing it for me? :)

Quote: RS

He’s never won a single pick on this game in prior years, if I’m not mistaken.


@Romes, idk if I like them odds at 160. I’ve already gone from +20 to -15 on my side. You wanna go down a bit and negotiate?

I’d take the field at +140.

Quote: unJon

I’d take the field at +140.

Me too. I'll bet $100. Who am I betting?

I’m interested in betting the field with whomever is giving the best odds

I'll take djatc against the field at -110 for 50. Any takers?

Quote: beachbumbabs

I'll take djatc against the field at -110 for 50. Any takers?

Yes. I'll take it.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I'll take djatc against the field at -110 for 50. Any takers?

I’ll take it also

Lol I offered 115 and y’all taking it at 110 wtf?

I’ll lay -120 on djatc vs field (contingent on him not f***ing up and getting auto-DQ’d somehow), so you get field at +120. I’ll lay up to $1,200 and escrow with BBB or Wizard if they’re good with it.

Edit: NONSHENANIGANS.

If +120 is the clearing price I want no part of it.

Quote: RS

Lol I offered 115 and y’all taking it at 110 wtf?

I’ll lay -120 on djatc vs field (contingent on him not f***ing up and getting auto-DQ’d somehow), so you get field at +120. I’ll lay up to $1,200 and escrow with BBB or Wizard if they’re good with it.

Edit: NONSHENANIGANS.

I suck at sports betting. I have proved that many times. But doesn't that create a middle for me , or am I misunderstanding the math?

If that's correct, I'll take the field at +120 for $100, and accept both ONM and Michael's $50.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I suck at sports betting. I have proved that many times. But doesn't that create a middle for me , or am I misunderstanding the math?

If that's correct, I'll take the field at +120 for $100, and accept both ONM and Michael's $50.

It’s an arbitrage, but yeah you’re in a good position where you can only win.

Booked, my $120 for djatc vs your $100 on field. Again, contingent on djatc not getting DQ’d and no shenanigans (can’t pay him off to purposely lose for example).


A middle, FWIW, would be if you could bet something like over 41.5 points and under 44.5. Usually you lose but when the total is in the, wait for it, middle, then you win both sides. And when you lose, you only lose $10 out of $220, assuming you’re laying 10c on both sides. Can be useful if one side is really +EV and the other is marginal, so you can afford to make a huge bet.

Quote: RS

Lol I offered 115 and y’all taking it at 110 wtf?

I’ll lay -120 on djatc vs field (contingent on him not f***ing up and getting auto-DQ’d somehow), so you get field at +120. I’ll lay up to $1,200 and escrow with BBB or Wizard if they’re good with it.

Edit: NONSHENANIGANS.

RS - you drive a hard bargain, goshdurnit.

OK let's split the difference and how 'bout you lay -130 on djatc and name your amount up to $ 50 for me ( me taking the field at + 130 ). If you want to keep it fun and friendly, I'm cool with that, just say ok $ 20.

Also you seem like a stand-up guy, so no need to escrow as far as I am concerned. Git 'er done.

a) I also want DJ to have some default picks in place so everything is interesting each week from here on out and no disputed situations.
b) No more advice from the Wizard.