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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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January 13th, 2022 at 1:22:37 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


The money line has Pittsburgh winning around 1 in 6. Around 17% of the time. Are you stunned when you step up to the table and roll a 7?
link to original post




at vegasinsider.com the Chiefs are quoted mostly at - 700 or -750

usually in an extreme line such as that - the Chiefs - in this situation - are a good bet

gamblers, being gamblers, virtually everywhere, greatly prefer large payouts to small payouts
and are willing to give the house an extra edge to get a big payout

in horse racing extreme long shots have about a negative 30% R.O.I. even though the takeout is 15 - 18 % on a win bet

that's why the HA on the Hardway for 6 or 8 that pays 9 to 1 is 9.09% - while the HA on a pass line bet at even money is only 1.41%

to summarize - I believe the Steelers are a longer shot to win than indicated by the money line




vegasinsider.com has the Chiefs as 12.5 point faves

according to the linked spread to moneyline calculator based on that a fair moneyline for the Chiefs would be_____ -1307.3

but that's not what it actually is_________it actually is__________-700 or -750 and it shows DraftKings has them at ________-630

the calculator also indicates that that spread indicates a win rate for the fave of 88.67%

.


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https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-calculators/spread-ml-converter/


..
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 13, 2022
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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January 14th, 2022 at 3:24:39 AM permalink
_______________


the talking heads are calling this block on Sunday by Ja Morant one of the greatest ever:
.

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"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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January 15th, 2022 at 8:24:50 PM permalink
In their 42-17 domination over the Patriots, the Bills were the first team in NFL history to have no punts, no field goals, and no turnovers in the entire game. I believe no fourth down attempts either. Offense just completely dominated.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 16th, 2022 at 12:59:35 AM permalink
__________


hate to sound like a tout for sports betting apps but this stuff IMO is worth mentioning


New York is in its' 2nd week of legal sports betting apps and online and they are offering some incredible promos - see link

unfortunately, I believe you have to live in NY to take advantage - I'm pretty sure there are some here that do

look for similar stuff from your state if and when they make sports betting online legal - currently there are only 18 states that allow legal online betting - there are 12 other states where it's legal but not yet legal online

Caesars offer is the most shocking - $300 on registration and up to a $3,000 deposit match - I think it's never been done before

new customers should call to verify details before signing up - I wouldn't trust the link 100%


.
https://www.amny.com/sports/ny-sports-betting-enters-second-week/


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 16, 2022
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 229
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 16th, 2022 at 4:23:02 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

__________


hate to sound like a tout for sports betting apps but this stuff IMO is worth mentioning


New York is in its' 2nd week of legal sports betting apps and online and they are offering some incredible promos - see link

unfortunately, I believe you have to live in NY to take advantage - I'm pretty sure there are some here that do

look for similar stuff from your state if and when they make sports betting online legal - currently there are only 18 states that allow legal online betting - there are 12 other states where it's legal but not yet legal online

Caesars offer is the most shocking - $300 on registration and up to a $3,000 deposit match - I think it's never been done before

new customers should call to verify details before signing up - I wouldn't trust the link 100%


.
https://www.amny.com/sports/ny-sports-betting-enters-second-week/


.
link to original post



Remember, the AP here is to find two places with similar promotions and take both sides.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 113
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 16th, 2022 at 4:36:58 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: lilredrooster

__________


hate to sound like a tout for sports betting apps but this stuff IMO is worth mentioning


New York is in its' 2nd week of legal sports betting apps and online and they are offering some incredible promos - see link

unfortunately, I believe you have to live in NY to take advantage - I'm pretty sure there are some here that do

look for similar stuff from your state if and when they make sports betting online legal - currently there are only 18 states that allow legal online betting - there are 12 other states where it's legal but not yet legal online

Caesars offer is the most shocking - $300 on registration and up to a $3,000 deposit match - I think it's never been done before

new customers should call to verify details before signing up - I wouldn't trust the link 100%


.
https://www.amny.com/sports/ny-sports-betting-enters-second-week/


.
link to original post



Remember, the AP here is to find two places with similar promotions and take both sides.
link to original post



Not necessarily. That just eliminates variance, but does not necessarily give you the most +EV. Some of it depends on the exact terms of the promotion.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 229
  • Posts: 12682
January 16th, 2022 at 5:33:53 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: lilredrooster

__________


hate to sound like a tout for sports betting apps but this stuff IMO is worth mentioning


New York is in its' 2nd week of legal sports betting apps and online and they are offering some incredible promos - see link

unfortunately, I believe you have to live in NY to take advantage - I'm pretty sure there are some here that do

look for similar stuff from your state if and when they make sports betting online legal - currently there are only 18 states that allow legal online betting - there are 12 other states where it's legal but not yet legal online

Caesars offer is the most shocking - $300 on registration and up to a $3,000 deposit match - I think it's never been done before

new customers should call to verify details before signing up - I wouldn't trust the link 100%


.
https://www.amny.com/sports/ny-sports-betting-enters-second-week/


.
link to original post



Remember, the AP here is to find two places with similar promotions and take both sides.
link to original post



Not necessarily. That just eliminates variance, but does not necessarily give you the most +EV. Some of it depends on the exact terms of the promotion.
link to original post



Yes, you have to read the fine print. But say you took both sides of the Bills game yesterday and they rebated up to $1,000 which seems common. You lay a dime on each side. In one you have your $990 or so in winnings. On the other you have either a straight rebate of $1,000 in credits.

The thing is that it is usually just for your first bet. So you need to bet big to max it. But again I am coming at it from the finance side and believe in risk management, see my comments on the options play last week.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 113
  • Posts: 8467
January 16th, 2022 at 5:50:53 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: lilredrooster

__________


hate to sound like a tout for sports betting apps but this stuff IMO is worth mentioning


New York is in its' 2nd week of legal sports betting apps and online and they are offering some incredible promos - see link

unfortunately, I believe you have to live in NY to take advantage - I'm pretty sure there are some here that do

look for similar stuff from your state if and when they make sports betting online legal - currently there are only 18 states that allow legal online betting - there are 12 other states where it's legal but not yet legal online

Caesars offer is the most shocking - $300 on registration and up to a $3,000 deposit match - I think it's never been done before

new customers should call to verify details before signing up - I wouldn't trust the link 100%


.
https://www.amny.com/sports/ny-sports-betting-enters-second-week/


.
link to original post



Remember, the AP here is to find two places with similar promotions and take both sides.
link to original post



Not necessarily. That just eliminates variance, but does not necessarily give you the most +EV. Some of it depends on the exact terms of the promotion.
link to original post



Yes, you have to read the fine print. But say you took both sides of the Bills game yesterday and they rebated up to $1,000 which seems common. You lay a dime on each side. In one you have your $990 or so in winnings. On the other you have either a straight rebate of $1,000 in credits.

The thing is that it is usually just for your first bet. So you need to bet big to max it. But again I am coming at it from the finance side and believe in risk management, see my comments on the options play last week.
link to original post



First change that to closer to $910 in winnings. I donít know if they allow it, but if I recall you should bet an underdog on the money line to get maximum +EV. Iím pretty sure the Wiz and Axel, as examples, know how big an underdog is best.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
  • Posts: 15280
January 16th, 2022 at 6:14:23 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

__________


hate to sound like a tout for sports betting apps but this stuff IMO is worth mentioning


New York is in its' 2nd week of legal sports betting apps and online and they are offering some incredible promos - see link

unfortunately, I believe you have to live in NY to take advantage - I'm pretty sure there are some here that do

look for similar stuff from your state if and when they make sports betting online legal - currently there are only 18 states that allow legal online betting - there are 12 other states where it's legal but not yet legal online

Caesars offer is the most shocking - $300 on registration and up to a $3,000 deposit match - I think it's never been done before

new customers should call to verify details before signing up - I wouldn't trust the link 100%


.
https://www.amny.com/sports/ny-sports-betting-enters-second-week/


.
link to original post



Exception to Caesars, those promotions are standard fare.

It would be highly unusual if you had to be a resident of NY to take advantage of the promotion, but who knows with their laws; generally speaking, you only have to be physically present in the state in question.

I also don't know which of those casinos won't give you the NY offer if you have done an offer in a different state already. One must read the terms and conditions for that. I know that BetRivers you cannot do the new player offer in both PA and NJ, so I'd assume NY would be the same, but maybe not. You also cannot do both BetRivers and PlaySugarhouse, in terms of new player, but it doesn't look like NY has PlaySugarhouse anyway.

How would I play a couple of those promotions? Glad you asked. I'd play both the DraftKings and Fanduel one. I'd find a half point line that the two sites shared and then bet one team on one of the sites and the opposite team on the other site for the full $1,000 risk-free.

One site you would now have, give or take, $1900 cash and the other you would have $0, but a $1,000, "Risk-Free," bet. At that point, you find another half point line to use the risk-free bet on and then use the site you have cash on to do a partial offset. If you want to be really nitty, then you can get the two possibilities for final profit within a dollar of each other...but I think it's better just to do the closest sensible bet that is a multiple of $50.

The reason why you want it to be on a half point line is because you do not want to push, otherwise, you didn't win anything and do not get a risk-free bet.

If you're worried about the two sites, "Talking to each other," then you can do it with a different person...just make sure they are located in a different part of the state in case they look at IP address and make sure to make the bets a couple hours apart. I do know one person who was refused a promotion because they did the offset betting (same site) in different states, but it was a weird game to pick and they made the bets within seconds of one another.

Anyway, guys inclined to bet sports recreationally will do what they will do, but if you don't really want to bet sports and just want to make several hundred dollars (maybe more) virtually risk-free, there you go.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
  • Posts: 15280
January 16th, 2022 at 6:16:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Not necessarily. That just eliminates variance, but does not necessarily give you the most +EV. Some of it depends on the exact terms of the promotion.
link to original post



It may not give the most EV, but when the probability of profit is 100%, what is the amount of EV required (which significantly higher EV opportunities are generally going to be on low probability outcomes) to offset the fact that you can take down a guaranteed profit?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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