speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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April 10th, 2018 at 3:26:50 AM permalink
World Cup is coming in June. Should we use this thread for any/all discussion ? Most likely I will be in Vegas the whole summer. I will have a betting spree on EVERY single game. This will be my World Cup of a life time. Betting betting and betting.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 10th, 2018 at 7:11:37 AM permalink
I'm coming the weekend of 6/23 specifically to bet on the World Cup. (and relax and have a great time) I'll be betting on every game while we're there. Not sure if I'm going to be waking up for the first game every day. I'll probably wake up and watch the 2nd half from my room, and then go down to the Sportsbook for the 2nd and 3rd shift of games.

I know very little about international soccer. So I'll be enjoying it purely as a fan of the game, and hope for positive variance.

I'm really looking forward to the trip. It'll be my first time in Vegas in 4 years.

Speedy, if you have good ideas for plays, please post them. One of the fun things about the World Cup is that all of the games and times are already scheduled. It's never too early to start thinking about good bets.

Thanks for starting the thread, hopefully it doesn't get ignored.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:35:29 PM permalink
I am starting to warm up to the idea of watching/wagering on the 2018 World Cup in Russia.

No team USA means I need to find another team to pull for (or not). The games will be on early here in PST.

Any long shots to bet to win the Tourney? Poland, Uruguay, or perhaps Croatia?
What about the Golden Boot for most goals scored? Neymar or...
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:40:22 PM permalink
You may find an edge or two here, in this article. I don't know, but these guys have done a pretty thorough analysis.

Quote:

An answer comes from the work of Andreas Groll at the Technical University of Dortmund in Germany and a few colleagues. These guys use a combination of machine learning and conventional statistics, a method called a random-forest approach, to identify a different most likely winner.



https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03208

You'll want to download the pdf in the upper right to see the full analysis and favorites.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
Keeneone
Keeneone
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:42:46 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

You may find an edge or two here, in this article. I don't know, but these guys have done a pretty thorough analysis.



https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03208

You'll want to download the pdf in the upper right to see the full analysis and favorites.


Thanks, but before I even click the link I am going to guess they ended up on Germany. :):):)
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:47:34 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Thanks, but before I even click the link I am going to guess they ended up on Germany. :):):)



Part of it did, but only under certain conditions. They claim the pools favor someone else.

It seemed to me the most helpful in a parlay structure, figuring out who would advance to each level. But I haven't tried to match up the info to any particular bets available for futures or multi-team action, so it's up to you guys if there's value to it.

If I were there in Vegas, I saw a couple things I would try. But I have no expertise.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
billryan
billryan
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:49:04 PM permalink
I'm mildly interested in the Cup, but know nothing about betting it. If anyone wants to do a quick primer on it I, for one, would appreciate it. Is it like the NFL with a team getting or giving points or like baseball where you get odds.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
SOOPOO
June 12th, 2018 at 5:02:30 PM permalink
What I cant stand about the sport is all the faking
It really gets out of hand during the World Cup because so much is at stake
I've seen some flops in the NBA but soccer takes the cake
Just a mere brush of a body and a player is flopping on the ground grimacing in pain playing injured
If they don't get the call, they immediately get up and play hard like nothing happened.
That's total BS and you should get thrown out of the tournament for faking an injury and flopping on the ground when barely touched.
Should allow refs video review of flopping or faking.
If the video shows this, throw the player out and no replacement
That would fix the problem immediately
Make the penalty of faking much more severe then the ref believing a foul was committed.
Play like men, not wusses that cry out in pain after a mere touch
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
FinsRule
FinsRule
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June 12th, 2018 at 6:45:17 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'm mildly interested in the Cup, but know nothing about betting it. If anyone wants to do a quick primer on it I, for one, would appreciate it. Is it like the NFL with a team getting or giving points or like baseball where you get odds.



Itís more like baseball. Except during group play there are draws. If you bet a team to win and they tie, you do not push. You lose.
terapined
terapined
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June 12th, 2018 at 6:46:53 PM permalink
What could really get ugly are the rival fans
2016 soccer tournament in Marseilles France became very ugly
Thousands of English fans flooded the city , some hooligans
A few hundred Russian fans traveled to Marseilles just to confront the English
It got real ugly real fast.
These Russian gangs are hoping British fans show up

"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"

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