speedycrap
speedycrap
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April 10th, 2018 at 3:26:50 AM permalink
World Cup is coming in June. Should we use this thread for any/all discussion ? Most likely I will be in Vegas the whole summer. I will have a betting spree on EVERY single game. This will be my World Cup of a life time. Betting betting and betting.
FinsRule
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April 10th, 2018 at 7:11:37 AM permalink
I'm coming the weekend of 6/23 specifically to bet on the World Cup. (and relax and have a great time) I'll be betting on every game while we're there. Not sure if I'm going to be waking up for the first game every day. I'll probably wake up and watch the 2nd half from my room, and then go down to the Sportsbook for the 2nd and 3rd shift of games.

I know very little about international soccer. So I'll be enjoying it purely as a fan of the game, and hope for positive variance.

I'm really looking forward to the trip. It'll be my first time in Vegas in 4 years.

Speedy, if you have good ideas for plays, please post them. One of the fun things about the World Cup is that all of the games and times are already scheduled. It's never too early to start thinking about good bets.

Thanks for starting the thread, hopefully it doesn't get ignored.
Keeneone
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:35:29 PM permalink
I am starting to warm up to the idea of watching/wagering on the 2018 World Cup in Russia.

No team USA means I need to find another team to pull for (or not). The games will be on early here in PST.

Any long shots to bet to win the Tourney? Poland, Uruguay, or perhaps Croatia?
What about the Golden Boot for most goals scored? Neymar or...
beachbumbabs
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:40:22 PM permalink
You may find an edge or two here, in this article. I don't know, but these guys have done a pretty thorough analysis.

Quote:

An answer comes from the work of Andreas Groll at the Technical University of Dortmund in Germany and a few colleagues. These guys use a combination of machine learning and conventional statistics, a method called a random-forest approach, to identify a different most likely winner.



https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03208

You'll want to download the pdf in the upper right to see the full analysis and favorites.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Keeneone
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:42:46 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

You may find an edge or two here, in this article. I don't know, but these guys have done a pretty thorough analysis.



https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03208

You'll want to download the pdf in the upper right to see the full analysis and favorites.


Thanks, but before I even click the link I am going to guess they ended up on Germany. :):):)
beachbumbabs
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:47:34 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Thanks, but before I even click the link I am going to guess they ended up on Germany. :):):)



Part of it did, but only under certain conditions. They claim the pools favor someone else.

It seemed to me the most helpful in a parlay structure, figuring out who would advance to each level. But I haven't tried to match up the info to any particular bets available for futures or multi-team action, so it's up to you guys if there's value to it.

If I were there in Vegas, I saw a couple things I would try. But I have no expertise.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
billryan
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June 12th, 2018 at 4:49:04 PM permalink
I'm mildly interested in the Cup, but know nothing about betting it. If anyone wants to do a quick primer on it I, for one, would appreciate it. Is it like the NFL with a team getting or giving points or like baseball where you get odds.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
terapined
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SOOPOO
June 12th, 2018 at 5:02:30 PM permalink
What I cant stand about the sport is all the faking
It really gets out of hand during the World Cup because so much is at stake
I've seen some flops in the NBA but soccer takes the cake
Just a mere brush of a body and a player is flopping on the ground grimacing in pain playing injured
If they don't get the call, they immediately get up and play hard like nothing happened.
That's total BS and you should get thrown out of the tournament for faking an injury and flopping on the ground when barely touched.
Should allow refs video review of flopping or faking.
If the video shows this, throw the player out and no replacement
That would fix the problem immediately
Make the penalty of faking much more severe then the ref believing a foul was committed.
Play like men, not wusses that cry out in pain after a mere touch
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
FinsRule
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June 12th, 2018 at 6:45:17 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'm mildly interested in the Cup, but know nothing about betting it. If anyone wants to do a quick primer on it I, for one, would appreciate it. Is it like the NFL with a team getting or giving points or like baseball where you get odds.



Itís more like baseball. Except during group play there are draws. If you bet a team to win and they tie, you do not push. You lose.
terapined
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June 12th, 2018 at 6:46:53 PM permalink
What could really get ugly are the rival fans
2016 soccer tournament in Marseilles France became very ugly
Thousands of English fans flooded the city , some hooligans
A few hundred Russian fans traveled to Marseilles just to confront the English
It got real ugly real fast.
These Russian gangs are hoping British fans show up

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
FinsRule
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June 12th, 2018 at 6:49:13 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Part of it did, but only under certain conditions. They claim the pools favor someone else.

It seemed to me the most helpful in a parlay structure, figuring out who would advance to each level. But I haven't tried to match up the info to any particular bets available for futures or multi-team action, so it's up to you guys if there's value to it.

If I were there in Vegas, I saw a couple things I would try. But I have no expertise.



I trust 538 more.
billryan
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June 12th, 2018 at 7:02:03 PM permalink
I personally like the pool play better than the knock out rounds. It seems teams are more attacking in the early rounds. Get a lead in knockout play and teams stall.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
beachbumbabs
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June 12th, 2018 at 7:02:48 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I trust 538 more.



I'm not vouching for them or their methodology in the slightest. They disclose their factors and method in the write-up, and include their conclusions, so I thought it interesting. Perhaps useful. Or not.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
ZenKinG
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June 12th, 2018 at 7:17:54 PM permalink
Soccer and basketball are my 2 favorite sports with soccer being my favorite. Also for those who don't know, I'm Portuguese and so I'm hoping Portugal finally lifts their first World Cup trophy. Portugal won their first European Championship in 2016 and no one expected them to. We did get kind of lucky, I have to admit, with the new rule change that year which allowed 3rd place teams to advance to the knockout rounds and also we luckily got placed into the weaker side of the bracket and 2nd place ended up getting screwed and placed into the harder side of the bracket. Everything seemed to go our way that year, finally.

To Keeneone who wanted an underdog pick, of course I'm bias, but Portugal could very well win it, just like we surprised everyone in the Euro. Portugal has a lot of young talent as well as experience with the best player in the world up top in Ronaldo to lead the team with experience and of course his ability. The world cup this year should be good. Can't wait.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
Ibeatyouraces
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June 12th, 2018 at 7:23:26 PM permalink
I'd rather jab red hot knives into my eyes than watch this boring crap.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
FinsRule
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June 12th, 2018 at 7:40:21 PM permalink
Isnít Portugal the type of team that can win the whole thing or get knocked out in group play?
ZenKinG
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June 12th, 2018 at 8:11:49 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Isnít Portugal the type of team that can win the whole thing or get knocked out in group play?



Yeah, similar to England.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
ZenKinG
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June 12th, 2018 at 8:13:50 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I'd rather jab red hot knives into my eyes than watch this boring crap.



Typical indoctrinated american philosophy about the greatest sport in the world that is rooted into them by their parents. They find it boring, but park themselves on the couch watching baseball and players in the dugout spit tobacco and scratch their nuts all game.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
Keeneone
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June 12th, 2018 at 8:13:53 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm not vouching for them or their methodology in the slightest. They disclose their factors and method in the write-up, and include their conclusions, so I thought it interesting. Perhaps useful. Or not.

Thanks for posting. Germany/Spain, Spain/Germany, pretty obvious result. The group stage stuff may reveal some things. "Random Forests" was a new and interesting term for me. It also sounds like a great band name.

Quote: ZenKinG

Soccer and basketball are my 2 favorite sports with soccer being my favorite. Also for those who don't know, I'm Portuguese and so I'm hoping Portugal finally lifts their first World Cup trophy. Portugal won their first European Championship in 2016 and no one expected them to. We did get kind of lucky, I have to admit, with the new rule change that year which allowed 3rd place teams to advance to the knockout rounds and also we luckily got placed into the weaker side of the bracket and 2nd place ended up getting screwed and placed into the harder side of the bracket. Everything seemed to go our way that year, finally.

To Keeneone who wanted an underdog pick, of course I'm bias, but Portugal could very well win it, just like we surprised everyone in the Euro. Portugal has a lot of young talent as well as experience with the best player in the world up top in Ronaldo to lead the team with experience and of course his ability. The world cup this year should be good. Can't wait.

Nice to see you posting again. There is definitely some movement towards Portugal and Belgium lately. I think it is great to see Portugal and Spain play in the group stage. I look forward to the Friday match.

Quote: billryan

I personally like the pool play better than the knock out rounds. It seems teams are more attacking in the early rounds. Get a lead in knockout play and teams stall.

Nothing beats win or go home.
speedycrap
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June 12th, 2018 at 8:37:30 PM permalink
I am glad this thread is alive.
I will take Spain and Brazil.
I am going to watch and wager every single game.
billryan
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June 12th, 2018 at 8:38:36 PM permalink
Win or go home sounds great, until a team drops everyone back and simply defends. In the first round, even when winning they keep trying as goals help in a tiebreaking situation.
That's my impression as a casual observer.
I'll never forget the 94 U.S. win over Colombia on a self goal and how that player was assassinated days later.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
speedycrap
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June 12th, 2018 at 8:38:51 PM permalink
Wizard, would you like a small wager of $20 please? Just pick a team to win the WC. Any team no odds. 1-1. Interested?
Ibeatyouraces
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June 12th, 2018 at 9:16:13 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Typical indoctrinated american philosophy about the greatest sport in the world that is rooted into them by their parents. They find it boring, but park themselves on the couch watching baseball and players in the dugout spit tobacco and scratch their nuts all game.


Baseball blows a$$ too. I've been a hockey fan all my life. Soccer is for loser hockey players that can't skate.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
FinsRule
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June 12th, 2018 at 9:16:56 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Wizard, would you like a small wager of $20 please? Just pick a team to win the WC. Any team no odds. 1-1. Interested?



Are you asking the Wizard to take even money on a team to win the World Cup when you can get 5:1 anywhere?

I must be confused about what youíre looking for.
FinsRule
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June 12th, 2018 at 9:18:16 PM permalink
Soccer is not perfect, but World Cup is a lot of fun.
speedycrap
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June 12th, 2018 at 9:33:01 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Are you asking the Wizard to take even money on a team to win the World Cup when you can get 5:1 anywhere?

I must be confused about what youíre looking for.

What I mean is Wizard and I will both pick a team. If our pick is not the winner, then there will be a draw. Clear now?
Ibeatyouraces
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June 12th, 2018 at 9:36:27 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Baseball blows a$$ too. I've been a hockey fan all my life. Soccer is for loser hockey players that can't skate.


If soccer players were allowed to knock their opponents legally to the ground, then it might be a little exciting. Until then, the game is a snooze fest.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
speedycrap
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June 12th, 2018 at 9:43:13 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

What I mean is Wizard and I will both pick a team. If our pick is not the winner, then there will be a draw. Clear now?

Finsrule. I will extend the same offer to you.
djatc
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June 13th, 2018 at 12:16:18 AM permalink
I don't watch soccer at all but bet it sometimes, the worst is when they throw in shiz like +1.5, +2 on a bet. Also 3 way betting is not my jam. Gimme point spreads, money line, and totals.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Aussie
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June 13th, 2018 at 3:55:44 AM permalink
France
speedycrap
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June 13th, 2018 at 4:45:53 AM permalink
I will take Brazil to win WC. Wizard and FinsRule, any taker???
SOOPOO
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June 13th, 2018 at 4:49:10 AM permalink
I'll go Argentina. If I need to take a big underdog I'll go Uruguay.
speedycrap
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June 13th, 2018 at 4:50:17 AM permalink
Argentina looks more attractive than Spain now.
FinsRule
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June 13th, 2018 at 10:33:10 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

I will take Brazil to win WC. Wizard and FinsRule, any taker???



Brazil / Germany is a coin toss. Not interested in a prolonged coin toss.

Thanks though.
terapined
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June 13th, 2018 at 3:36:39 PM permalink
Spain fires their successful coach 14-0-6 two days before playing Portugal
WTF
Not losing a game not good enough??????????
wow
Last edited by: terapined on Jun 13, 2018
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
terapined
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June 13th, 2018 at 3:39:54 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Brazil / Germany is a coin toss. Not interested in a prolonged coin toss.



Winner depends on which team is able to turn slight brushes and touches into yellow and red card fouls due to fake flopping
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
FinsRule
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June 13th, 2018 at 6:11:54 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Winner depends on which team is able to turn slight brushes and touches into yellow and red card fouls due to fake flopping



If youíd watch, youíd find out that is not constantly happening.
speedycrap
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June 13th, 2018 at 6:14:34 PM permalink
I took Russia and over 21/2
speedycrap
speedycrap
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June 13th, 2018 at 6:16:43 PM permalink
I will be at Red Rock early in the morning. Watching,drinking,betting horses and so on. Craps at half time.
FinsRule
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June 13th, 2018 at 6:21:17 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

I will be at Red Rock early in the morning. Watching,drinking,betting horses and so on. Craps at half time.



Iíll be in Vegas in 9 days. Thatíll pretty much be my trip. But at Venetian and/or Caesars.
speedycrap
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June 13th, 2018 at 6:57:16 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Iíll be in Vegas in 9 days. Thatíll pretty much be my trip. But at Venetian and/or Caesars. [/


Big shot against small potato.

terapined
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June 13th, 2018 at 7:24:07 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

If youíd watch, youíd find out that is not constantly happening.



But when it does, it looks hilarious as players fake excruciating pain



Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
FinsRule
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June 13th, 2018 at 7:48:01 PM permalink
Oh yeah, theyíre funny.
Keeneone
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June 13th, 2018 at 8:55:04 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Winner depends on which team is able to turn slight brushes and touches into yellow and red card fouls due to fake flopping

Nope, the best team and players will win. And there is plenty of skill/athelticism/greatness that occurs in the World Cup.
terapined
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June 14th, 2018 at 5:01:41 AM permalink
World Cup starts today. 1st game 11am EST
Russia vs Saudi Arabia
Work from home so will have the game on a small TV right next to my computer so I can watch while working
Will be looking for skill/athelticism/greatness and of course Flops/Dives/fakery :-)
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
terapined
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June 14th, 2018 at 7:58:25 AM permalink
Singer Robbie Williams opening the World Cup
WTF
This is an international event
Should have brought out the A+ entertainment such as the Russian Police Choir performing Daft Punks Get Lucky
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Keeneone
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June 14th, 2018 at 5:30:15 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

I took Russia and over 21/2

Nailed it. What is next?

Quote: terapined

Singer Robbie Williams opening the World Cup
WTF
This is an international event
Should have brought out the A+ entertainment such as the Russian Police Choir performing Daft Punks Get Lucky

Williams flipped the bird and got the boot.
terapined
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June 14th, 2018 at 5:37:16 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone



Williams flipped the bird and got the boot.


I actually saw that live and thought to myself, did I just see that?
I went on twitter to confirm what I thought I saw
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
speedycrap
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RogerKint
June 14th, 2018 at 6:23:59 PM permalink
Uruguay
speedycrap
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June 14th, 2018 at 11:00:26 PM permalink
Iran draw. Under 2.
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