My 9 Team, 6pt Teaser This Weekend
Titans +15
Titans Under 51
Falcons +11.5
Falcons Over 42.5
Jaguars -3
Jaguars Under 45.5
Saints -.5
Saints Over 42.5
Alabama Roll Tide +2
Good luck to all.... its playoff time!!!!
Quote: WatchMeWin9 team 6 point teaser pays 20-1 .. (Yes it is a free roll from my craps winnings this morning). Long shot but it will keep me interested in games all weekend. I do feel good about the picks however.
Titans +15
Titans Under 51
Falcons +11.5
Falcons Over 42.5
Jaguars -3
Jaguars Under 45.5
Saints -.5
Saints Over 42.5
Alabama Roll Tide +2
Good luck to all.... its playoff time!!!!
I'd switch Jaguars -3 to Bills +15
I'd switch Saints -.5 (which of course is really "pick'em") to Panthers +12.5
And Georgia +10
But good luck! As with all teasers we could both go 9-0!
Quote: WatchMeWin9 team 6 point teaser pays 20-1 .. (Yes it is a free roll from my craps winnings this morning). Long shot but it will keep me interested in games all weekend. I do feel good about the picks however.
Titans +15
Titans Under 51
Falcons +11.5
Falcons Over 42.5
Jaguars -3
Jaguars Under 45.5
Saints -.5
Saints Over 42.5
Alabama Roll Tide +2
Good luck to all.... its playoff time!!!!
I say you don't hit 7 of 9. Also, that's not how "free rolls" work.
Quote: SOOPOOI'd switch Jaguars -3 to Bills +15
I'd switch Saints -.5 (which of course is really "pick'em") to Panthers +12.5
And Georgia +10
But good luck! As with all teasers we could both go 9-0!
I dont disagree with you. They very well could fall right in between. I feel the Jags could shut the bills down to a goose egg or under 10.... thats why i took them to win. As far as the Saints, well they are at home and they are the better team... and I HATE Cam! I want them to destroy Carolina... but a simple W will do the trick.
Quote: FinsRuleI say you don't hit 7 of 9. Also, that's not how "free rolls" work.
Over 6.5 Correct - -125
Under 6.5 Correct - +105
Quote: FinsRuleOver 6.5 Correct - -125
Under 6.5 Correct - +105
Which 2 would you change?
As far as fee roll goes, this is my personal term for taking a shot with money already won. Therefore it is a free roll for me since I cannot lose on the day. If I am up say 1000 on the day , if I wager 200 on a parlay or teaser that in sports, that is free rolling for me as I will at least net 800 on the day. I dont expect to win parlays and teasers, but the high payouts are worth it. I actually usually hit 80% of my picks on my parlays and teasers... so you are not far off with your 7-9 prediction.
I also think Titans are going to get completely destroyed. I like Bills better than Titans.
Quote: FinsRuleRule #1 in teasers - don't tease totals. I think I would change my odds to -105 Over and -115 Under. You just have too many totals in there.
I also think Titans are going to get completely destroyed. I like Bills better than Titans.
Noted. Thanks! My picks are already in on my ticket so there is no going back now. I didn't plan on getting much feedback... good feedback... next time I will post my picks prior to officially putting in my plays. This way I can adjust.
Quote: SM777Not stepping out on a limb here, because the odds of it actually hitting are well over 20-1. But, I can say with certainty that ticket will not hit.
'with certainty' ... these are strong words. Surely you are joking!?
Quote: SM777Not stepping out on a limb here, because the odds of it actually hitting are well over 20-1. But, I can say with certainty that ticket will not hit.
Care to make a friendly wager on this? Same odds, same picks? You say with certainty it will not hit.... and you are getting a bargain since you say that the odds of it hitting are way higher than 20-1.
I'll go 50 to your 1000 if you are so certain with certainty. Easy money for you.... since you are with certainty. 50 bucks is 50 bucks!
Quote: FinsRuleI know you said you wanted action for all of the games. I think you'll be out after game 1. Sorry.
Early on, it looks like you're right...lol But 15 is alot of points in NFL. Im hoping they can keep it within that number. KC is looking strong ..for sure!
Is it possible to figure out which bet is better mathematically?
How would you do that? And which bet is better?
Thanks
1st bet, bet 100 win 91
2nd bet bet 191 win 173
3rd bet bet 364 win 330
4th bet bet 694 win 630
5th bet bet 1324 win 1203
you now have 2527 - more than 24/1 (you actually have a little more than that I didn't count the pennies)
you get a much better deal if you do it yourself
books only pay you 20/1 to 22/1
right?
you could also be more selective and do your own parlay with games from different days or weeks. I don't think books let you do that.
but I forgot. of course you can't parlay games going off at the same time by yourself. that's how they snag the customer.
Fin, you were wrong.
Quote: WatchMeWinsm777, you have 45 minutes for your 'certain to win' wager if you want it. please let me know by 4.15 EST.
Sorry I missed this. Certainly would've taken that.
Quote: WatchMeWin2 of 2 so far.....
Fin, you were wrong.
You got some fun out of it... Right?
Quote: FinsRuleYou got some fun out of it... Right?
Absolutely! Like I said, it was a free roll play for me, so no big deal. I dont expect to win these long shots but they are worth the shot and worth the entertainment value. I will have more fun watching the rest unfold tomorrow to see how I would have done. so far 3 out of 4 winners.... and that falcons games should still have gone over.. haha what a horrible display of offense tonight. oh well.
Who do you like tomorrow?
Quote: WatchMeWinAbsolutely! Like I said, it was a free roll play for me, so no big deal. I dont expect to win these long shots but they are worth the shot and worth the entertainment value. I will have more fun watching the rest unfold tomorrow to see how I would have done. so far 3 out of 4 winners.... and that falcons games should still have gone over.. haha what a horrible display of offense tonight. oh well.
Who do you like tomorrow?
Why do you keep calling it a free roll? You understand that you had to actually use cash, right? So it wasn't a free roll.
eg... if you walked into the casino one morning with 1000 and went straight to the book and put in a parlay with your starting bankroll for the day... then that is not a free roll in my sense of the term.
Now if I go into the casino with 1000 and win 1000 on the tables right away... now I have 1000 more than I did before the day started. Now i will wager a portion of the 1000 profit ( say 200) as a free bet.... in my perception of the term. So regardless of the outcome in the parlay or tease, i would still be up net 800 for the day. Its all a matter of perception and this is my way of playing my free rolls as they are high payouts with lower probability of success.
Quote: GWAEWhy do you keep calling it a free roll? You understand that you had to actually use cash, right? So it wasn't a free roll.
Just for the same reason some use the phrase 'house money' when at the time you are using it to make a bet is now your money and not the house's money. It's more a feeling than a fact.
Quote: SOOPOOJust for the same reason some use the phrase 'house money' when at the time you are using it to make a bet is now your money and not the house's money. It's more a feeling than a fact.
I would agree with that... and that is why i say it is my perception of the term. And today I am using house money in my 5 team teaser!!!!
Quote: SOOPOOJust for the same reason some use the phrase 'house money' when at the time you are using it to make a bet is now your money and not the house's money. It's more a feeling than a fact.
I read somewhere that someone once said that as long as you are in the casino walking around the casino with your winnings, it is HOUSE MONEY.
When you walk out the door with your winnings, it's YOUR MONEY!
Quote: MaxPenWhere's the W?
Hopefully, it is right here... modest play for entertainment.
https://imgur.com/KNIP1QU
Quote: lilredroosterI'm curious. A 9 team 6 point teaser parlay pays 20/1. And a 5 team no teaser parlay pays 20/1.
Is it possible to figure out which bet is better mathematically?
How would you do that? And which bet is better?
Thanks
On a 20-1 bet you need to win 4.8% of the time to break even (1/21). That means on a five team parlay you would need each game to have a 55% chance of winning to be a good bet. On a nine team teaser, you would need each game to have a 72% chance of winning to be a good bet. Which means if the extra points will turn a loss into a win 17% of the time of more, the teaser would better.
Using that formula Alabama +2 is curious. You could just make it an eight team teaser, then bet it all on Alabama money line -180. Only way that isn't better is if you think there is an 8% chance Alabama wins by exactly one point
Quote: WatchMeWinIt is a free roll to me. As I stated earlier, when I win on the tables prior to putting in a sports wager, I am using house money for my lottery bet (parlays and teasers). So, even though it is real money im using, it is money that i didnt have earlier in the day before i won on the tables.
That means if you win one week, the next week is a free-roll. And because you won money in 2017, then 2018 must be a free-roll. If I work at a job and earn $300 in a day, is the $200 steak dinner than night is also a free-roll. Why not just say that anytime you exchange money for something it's like you're getting it for free, because it was money that you didn't have earlier.
Quote: TomGThat means if you win one week, the next week is a free-roll. And because you won money in 2017, then 2018 must be a free-roll. If I work at a job and earn $300 in a day, is the $200 steak dinner than night is also a free-roll. Why not just say that anytime you exchange money for something it's like you're getting it for free, because it was money that you didn't have earlier.
I see your point, and it is a valid point. I used to always say when you are up money in the casinos, it is your money.. its in your pocket... you are not playing with their money..its yours! So my 'free roll' perception is a bit skewed. I guess , on a deeper level, what I am psychologically doing is allowing myself to play that 'lottery play' ( longshot payout plays) with money I had just won ... otherwise I would not play the 'lottery play', as I know the probabilities of consistently winning them are low.
Quote: WatchMeWin9 team 6 point teaser pays 20-1 .. (Yes it is a free roll from my craps winnings this morning). Long shot but it will keep me interested in games all weekend. I do feel good about the picks however.
Titans +15 =W
Titans Under 51 =W
Falcons +11.5 =W
Falcons Over 42.5 -L
Jaguars -3 =W
Jaguars Under 45.5 =W
Saints -.5
Saints Over 42.5
Alabama Roll Tide +2
Good luck to all.... its playoff time!!!!
So far 5 out of 6 W on the teaser. Fin said I would hit 7 Ws. It will be an interesting couple of games tonight and tomorrow. Although you have to go 9 for 9 on the teaser for there to be a W on the ticket, lets see how Fin fairs on his prediction.
Meanwhile, back at headquarters, WMW put in another 5 team teaser earlier today. So far he has hit 2 of 2. Next up... Saints to beat up on Cam n Co.
https://imgur.com/KNIP1QU
Quote: WatchMeWinSo far 5 out of 6 W on the teaser. Fin said I would hit 7 Ws. It will be an interesting couple of games tonight and tomorrow. Although you have to go 9 for 9 on the teaser for there to be a W on the ticket, lets see how Fin fairs on his prediction.
Meanwhile, back at headquarters, WMW put in another 5 team teaser earlier today. So far he has hit 2 of 2. Next up... Saints to beat up on Cam n Co.
https://imgur.com/KNIP1QU
Typo.... Fin said I would NOT hit 7 Ws of 9 on the teaser.
Quote: WatchMeWinSo far 5 out of 6 W on the teaser. Fin said I would not hit 7 Ws. It will be an interesting couple of games tonight and tomorrow. Although you have to go 9 for 9 on the teaser for there to be a W on the ticket, lets see how Fin fairs on his prediction.
Meanwhile, back at headquarters, WMW put in another 5 team teaser earlier today. So far he has hit 2 of 2. Next up... Saints to beat up on Cam n Co.
https://imgur.com/KNIP1QU
You were wrong again Fin. That's twice now. Next time you come at me, have something substantive to say and back your words up with winners. So far 7 of 8 winners on the 9 team teaser, and 4 of 4 winners alive on my 5 team teaser.
Quote: WatchMeWinYou were wrong again Fin. That's twice now. Next time you come at me, have something substantive to say and back your words up with winners. So far 7 of 8 winners on the 9 team teaser, and 4 of 4 winners alive on my 5 team teaser.
Come at you? Guessing that you'd get 6 or 7 out of 9 is coming at you? Congrats on being 7 out of 8. Guess what that gets you? Nothing! Now, if you would have just not teased any totals, you'd actually have a chance at making some money. So who was wrong....?
If I wanted to come at you, I'd point out (like many others have) that you're obviously lying about your craps success. Because, if you consistently won money at craps, you'd have so much money, that you wouldn't need to play craps anymore!
Quote: FinsRuleCome at you? Guessing that you'd get 6 or 7 out of 9 is coming at you? Congrats on being 7 out of 8. Guess what that gets you? Nothing! Now, if you would have just not teased any totals, you'd actually have a chance at making some money. So who was wrong....?
If I wanted to come at you, I'd point out (like many others have) that you're obviously lying about your craps success. Because, if you consistently won money at craps, you'd have so much money, that you wouldn't need to play craps anymore!
You are deviating from the point. You first said that KC would destroy Titans and that I would be out of my tease early sad to say. Titans actually won.. good call. You also scoffed at the idea of a 9 team teaser and you said I would even get to 7 wins. Again, you were wrong.
If you want to book my bets next week, I would love to make a friendly wager. Just let me know since you are quick to point out what you believe to be right... but then ultimately wrong.
As far as the craps goes... its a moot point. One day when we can all play craps together... the light will be shed. Until then, Ive backed up everything Ive posted... From back in March 2012 I was challenged by steelco to make NBA picks against him. I took the challenge on destroyed him as I went 6-0 while he flopped. all documented. I gave a stock pick of AKAO which went up 100% within the first two months that I posted it. I then said it was time to sell and not get greedy. I was right on all counts. I then gave Ripple as a new digital currency play a few weeks ago... it has since tripled in value. I tried to make a friendly wager with a member here and posted a 4 team parlay with him via pm....he decided he didnt want to book it.... yep all 4 teams won and the parlay was a winner. What i say about craps, well its true. No reason to lie... I like winning.
Quote: WatchMeWinWhat i say about craps, well its true. No reason to lie... I like winning.
You're so great dude.
Just about everybody here is in awe of you.
Are you generous enough to think about giving autographs to some of us lesser folks when you have time?
Us Ls as you like to call us.
Handicappers (and this is especially true in horse racing), always give credit to themselves for making good picks, and blame bad luck when they lose.
Quote: WatchMeWinIt is a free roll to me. As I stated earlier, when I win on the tables prior to putting in a sports wager, I am using house money for my lottery bet (parlays and teasers). So, even though it is real money im using, it is money that i didnt have earlier in the day before i won on the tables.
eg... if you walked into the casino one morning with 1000 and went straight to the book and put in a parlay with your starting bankroll for the day... then that is not a free roll in my sense of the term.
Now if I go into the casino with 1000 and win 1000 on the tables right away... now I have 1000 more than I did before the day started. Now i will wager a portion of the 1000 profit ( say 200) as a free bet.... in my perception of the term. So regardless of the outcome in the parlay or tease, i would still be up net 800 for the day. Its all a matter of perception and this is my way of playing my free rolls as they are high payouts with lower probability of success.
I get what you are saying. This way of thinking is why casinos keep getting built. I am not even saying I do t do the same. If I win 1k them I might jump to $5 vp for a few hundred. I think of it as taking a shot. Even though it is way out of my bankroll I take the shot for 20k only because I am up
Quote: GWAEI get what you are saying. This way of thinking is why casinos keep getting built. I am not even saying I do t do the same. If I win 1k them I might jump to $5 vp for a few hundred. I think of it as taking a shot. Even though it is way out of my bankroll I take the shot for 20k only because I am up
Agree.. Like I said, it is like playing a lottery card. You dont expect to win big, but you have to take shots once and a while. And the key for me is that I wont take the shots if I hadn't already won money on the day.
Give me a W, give me an LOL. What a joke.
Quote: FinsRuleI've never had someone gloat about being right when a bet loses.
Handicappers (and this is especially true in horse racing), always give credit to themselves for making good picks, and blame bad luck when they lose.
Where do I start with this one?? hmm... well firstly, let me say that I never draw first blood.... but when someone takes jabs at me first , I never shy away and will come back with an upper cut and right hook. You then come back with little jabs... again upper cut and RH.
You are too naive to understand the point , which you first instigated. I merely put in the 9 team teaser , and you came right out and said that I had no shot at even winning 7 out of the 9 games. That right there is were you made a challenge within the posted teaser I made. So when I 'gloat' about hitting 7 or 8 games so far, it is not because I won all but one, it is because you made a silly comment about my teaser , therefore I am happy to have proved you wrong. It certainly isnt about winning 7 of 8 so far because in teasers and parlays there is no room for error .. that is why the payout is larger due to the probabilities of that happening. Furthermore, you were foolish enough to make a comment on the KC / Titans game in which you said KC will blow Tenn out and I wont even make it past the first game. That was another jab.... and again you were proven wrong and look foolish. Additionally, in that game, you made another comment about Mariota catching his own touchdown... you said 'interesting'.. and of course when scorn individuals use the word 'interesting', we all know that that person is pissed and feels like he had bad luck on the play. You apparently had money on the Chiefs... so sorry! I never said anything about bad luck.. even when my falcons touchdown was called back to put the game over which would have put me 8 for 8.... oh, but enough of that.. haha
If you want to have constructive talks about games and put heads together to try to pick winners in the future, thats great. If you want to try and prove me wrong, then lets make a friendly wager between us. I would gladly put in some plays with/against you.
"I merely put in the 9 team teaser , and you came right out and said that I had no shot at even winning 7 out of the 9 games."
I set the line at 6.5. And made the odds fairly even. That means I thought it was pretty close to 50-50 that you'd win 6 or 7 out of the 9. That's simply because the average person hits about 2/3 of 6 point teaser picks.
So....please, show me where I thought you had "no shot" I didn't even think your bet was that bad. You made a bet that was 25-1. Your bet probably wins about 3 times every 100.
The only negative comment I made was that the #1 rule of teasers is not to bet totals. And the total is what caused you to lose.
I haven't had really any discussions with you, so I'm not sure if you just fly off the handle quickly. But if me saying that it was 50-50 for you to go 6 or 7 out of 9 teaser picks is me "coming at you", then you're really going to have a tough time on here, the internet in general, and life in general.
I think that if OP had been in the WOV Playoff Picks contest he would currently be tied for first place. So, again, it was a good job of picking.
Quote: gordonm888Not really into the back and forth acrimony on this thread. However, OP made a lot of good picks and came close to winning a 9 pick parlay - so good for him.
I think that if OP had been in the WOV Playoff Picks contest he would currently be tied for first place. So, again, it was a good job of picking.
Teasers are just completely different than parlays.
FWIW, my picks for this week are:
Atlanta
Patriots
Steelers
Saints
Over - Saints/Vikings
I'd tease Saints and Steelers. Maybe add Pats on there.
Fade at your own risk WMW!
