JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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October 22nd, 2017 at 10:10:53 AM permalink
Using $100 as equal to 1.0u (units)

Week 6 Results:
ATS Picks: 7-3 +4.15u
Parlays: 1-2 +2.0u

Week 7 Results:
ATS Picks: 7-4 +2.0u
Parlays: 0-1 -0.5u

Week 8 Results:
ATS Picks: 5-11 -6.675u

Totals:
ATS Picks: 19-18 -0.525u
Parlays: 1-3 +1.5u

Total Units: +0.975u
ďItís a dog eat dog world out there and Iím wearing milkbone underwear .Ē Ė Norm Peterson
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
Joined: Jul 3, 2015
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October 22nd, 2017 at 8:58:56 PM permalink
Vegas dave is much better
14-4 last week 4-1 this week
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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October 23rd, 2017 at 1:10:36 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Vegas dave is much better
14-4 last week 4-1 this week



here are some details of Vegas Dave's arrest in April.

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2017/apr/19/indictment-of-vegas-dave-illustrates-how-casinos-u/
𝘈 𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘺 𝘮𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴.... ᴴᵉʳᵐᵃⁿ ᴹᵉˡᵛⁱˡˡᵉ
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
Joined: Jul 3, 2015
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October 23rd, 2017 at 1:24:48 AM permalink
Not sure what that has to do with his picks lol
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
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October 25th, 2017 at 8:57:24 PM permalink
WEEK 9





SMU and Tulsa both have good offenses, but SMU has an advantage defensively in this match-up. Tulsa is allowing opponents more than 530 yards of offense and close to 38 points per game. SMU allows opponents 430 yards of offense and 30 points per game. SMU also has a decided plus turnover margin at +9 to +4 for Tulsa.

At home SMU is 3-0 ATS with a +10.67 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Tulsa is 1-3 ATS away with a -12.88 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. They are not a good away team.

SMU has lost two in a row to Tulsa but last year's match-up was close and this year's SMU team has a more experienced starting lineup on both sides of the ball.

SMU wins in a shootout 48-35.




Texas Longhorns freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger is questionable for Saturday having gone into concussion protocol on Monday. His status and availability is currently unknown. Sophomore Shane Buechele may have to resume his starting role this week.

Buechele hasnít seen extended playing time in nearly a month after suffering an ankle injury in a 17-7 win against Iowa State. In that game, Buechele completed 19-of-26 passes for 171 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while adding 13 carries for 42 yards.

Texas has a +7 TM advantage (1 to -6) over Baylor and has won the last two games outright. They've lost their last two games close (by 5 against Oklahoma and by 3 in OT versus Oklahoma St.). Baylor has lost 7 in a row.

Texas is 5-1 ATS with a +4.33 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Baylor is 4-2 with a -1.67 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. Whether Ehlinger or Buechele plays, Texas still has a lot of injuries on offense. Banged up or not, the Longhorns are too much for Baylor.

Texas wins 37-23.




Michigan St. has won their last four games in a row against strong teams. Even though they are playing away, defensively they are only allowing 16.9 pts per game. They are 5-2 ATS with a +2.29 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. They have had some issues on offense but they match up well against a Northwestern defense that is allowing opponents to convert over 42% on third downs.

Northwestern has won two in a row but will be facing a very tough Michigan St. defense that is allowing opponents 260 yards of total offense. Northwestern are -5 in TM and are 4-3 ATS with a -0.5 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. They upset Michigan St. last year in a shootout 54-40, a game that the Spartans won't soon forget.

This game may be close and tight throughout the first three quarters.

Michigan St. wins 24-19.




Indiana will take its up-tempo offense to Maryland this week in what should be a very favorable match-up against an extremely weak defensive unit. Maryland is allowing opponents 36.7 points per game and giving up 50% conversions on third down match-ups. Indiana lost their last two games close, losing to Michigan and Michigan St. by one score.

Maryland has lost 4 out of their last 5 games, with their only win in this stretch against Minnesota. The Terrapins may struggle against a solid Indiana defensive unit that is showing a slight uptick in momentum. Turnover margin favors Maryland as Indiana has been turnover prone this season (-8).

Both teams have issues covering. Indiana is 3-3 ATS with a +0.83 cover diff. Maryland is 2-4 ATS with a -2.33 cover diff. However, the pace of the game will start to wear Maryland out late. Indiana has won the last two match-ups between these teams.

Indiana wins 30-20.




Notre Dame has played an impressive schedule and are a couple of points away from being undefeated. Their narrow loss to a very strong Georgia team is their only blemish of the season. They have systematically overmatched all of the teams they have played thus far. Both teams have 6-1 records but NC State lost to South Carolina and two of their wins are against unimpressive competition. Notre Dame dismantled Michigan St., USC, and was one turnover away from beating Georgia.

Defensively, the Irish are improving each week. Both teams are solid in turnover margin with the edge going to Notre Dame +10 to +8. NC State is allowing opponents 23 points per game while the Irish are allowing just over 16 points. Notre Dame is ranked 13th on Offense and 28th on Defense against quality competition. NC State is ranked 18th on Offense and 46th on Defense against decent competition.

Notre Dame is 6-1 with a monstrous +13.64 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. NC State is 3-3 ATS with a +2.75 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. The Irish are playing at home and need to continue to win impressively in order to stay within consideration for the college football playoffs. They will be prepared and ready to play.

Notre Dame wins 37-21.




South Carolina is playing well defensively. The Gamecocks are +7 in Turnover Margin and have a +6 advantage over Vandy. S.C. is only allowing opponents 19.3 points per game. Carolina is 5-2 ATS with a respectable +6.86 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Vandy is 2-4 ATS with a -8.08 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.

Vandy's defense is showing a negative momentum trend (declining over the past four weeks) and they've lost four games in a row. The Commodores have lost the last two contests against the Gamecocks and are traveling to Carolina to play in this game.

Will Muschamp will have South Carolina ready to play.

S.C. wins 27-17.




Western Ky. may be 5-2 but they have played a tremendously easy schedule this season. The strongest two teams they've played this season are Illinois (2-5) and LA Tech (3-4) and they lost to both of them. FAU has a veteran team and has played Wisconsin and Navy, losing to both. All of their wins are against stronger competition.

FAU is 4-2 ATS with a +12.83 cover diff above the spread margin. Western Ky. is 2-4 ATS with a -5.58 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. FAU is 2-1 ATS away and Western Ky is 2-1 at home but FAU has a +9 cover diff advantage over WKY.

Western Ky. won the last two match-ups but they only returned 10 starters this year where FAU returned 18. FAU has a very improved coaching staff with Lane Kiffin and family running the show. Offensively, they are up-ticking and showing solid momentum over the last few weeks.

FAU wins 42-28.




Even though Kentucky took a loss to a strong Mississippi St. team, they have shown consistency on offense for much of the season. They are showing a slight downtrend defensively but they are still opportunistic in turnover margin, going +6 over the season.

Tennessee is reeling, having lost three in a row to Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama. The Vols are 0-6 ATS against FBS competition with a -11.75 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. Tennessee is scoring just over 19 pts per game while allowing opponents 27 points per game. They are -3 in TM.

Kentucky is playing at home and is looking to become bowl eligible this year.

Kentucky wins 28-17.




Purdue is ranked 90th in the nation on offense and 31st in the nation on defense. They face a Nebraska team that is ranked 107th on offense and 104th on defense. Even though Purdue hasn't been lights out on offense, neither has Nebraska. Both teams are averaging close to 25 points per game but defensively, Purdue is holding opponents to just over 19 points per game. Nebraska allows 31 points per game.

Purdue is 5-2 ATS with a tremendous +11.14 cover diff above the spread margin. Nebraska is 2-5 ATS with a -4.5 cover diff below the spread margin. Purdue is playing at home and should play well.

Purdue wins 31-20.




Washington St. comes into this game 7-1, with their only loss to a sub-par Cal team where Wash St looked very much asleep at the wheel. They were not prepared. Fast forward to the next week where Mike Leach had them roaring once again as they beat Colorado 28-0. They will need to play with energy and preparedness once again to beat a resilient Arizona team that is scoring 43 points per game. Washington St. is allowing just above 18 points per game. Who will win this battle up front?

Washington St. has a very good offense led by Luke Falk. They will have a good advantage against Arizona as Zona gives up almost 30 points per game to opponents. Washington is 5-2 ATS while Arizona is 3-3.

Washington State wins 34-24.




Fresno St. is the number 1 cover team in the nation. They are 5-0-1 against FBS competition with a whipping +18.4 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. They face a UNLV team that is 4-2 ATS with a +1 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Fresno is playing at home and have a +4 TM diff advantage (+8 to +4) over UNLV. They are tremendous on defense and are currently #3 in the nation. They are showing a huge uptick on momentum defensively. Fresno has won their last 4 games including a big win against San Diego St. They are also averaging 32 points per game while allowing just over 17.

UNLV has lost their last 3 games by 31 points, 4 points and 24 points. They have an extremely weak defense and are giving up 36 points per contest.

Fresno St is too much at home and wins 44-17.




San Diego St. was embarrassed the last two weeks losing to Boise St. and Fresno St. by two plus scores. Make no mistake, this San Diego St. team is still very solid across the board. They crushed Hawaii last year 55-0. They have a +8 TM diff (+6 to -2) over Hawaii. They are facing a very weak Hawaii defense and should have good production against this unit.

Hawaii has lost 4 of their last 5 games. They play well on offense but are allowing opponents to score almost 36 points per game. They are also 1-5 ATS with a -9.33 cover diff disadvantage against the spread. If this was a surfing contest, it might be closer.

San Diego St. wins 35-24.
ďItís a dog eat dog world out there and Iím wearing milkbone underwear .Ē Ė Norm Peterson
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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October 26th, 2017 at 6:56:55 AM permalink
Joel, can you explain why your algorithm selects almost all favorites? It just seems odd to me because I think it is commonly known that casual gamblers tend to pick more favorites so there is generally a small bias in the lines favornig the underdog..
Living longer does not always infer +EV
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
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October 26th, 2017 at 7:22:05 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Joel, can you explain why your algorithm selects almost all favorites? It just seems odd to me because I think it is commonly known that casual gamblers tend to pick more favorites so there is generally a small bias in the lines favornig the underdog..



Sure.

Similar to some systems like ESPNs FPI, the base system component I use is called TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength). It handles inflation/deflation values for raw statistics by using standard deviation, among other criteria.

The second part is determining probability of scoring for offensive pieces and scoring mitigation from defensive pieces.

The third part is determining overall risk based on similar predictive analysis using regression models.

The fourth is determining current offensive and defensive momentum trends based on performance when playing strong or weak teams.

There are a couple of other smaller trending components.

Last, ATS ratings and ATS historical lines based on scenario driven data.

My system is going to find more teams on the oddsmaker favorite line later in the season. In the beginning of the season there is almost an equal balance of favorites and underdogs because Vegas has inaccuracies in their line settings.

A good example would be UCF. The lines have been set wrong the entire year. Iím going to do my best to take advantage of lines when possible. I try to stay within system picks which is why you see more action on oddsmaker favorites.
ďItís a dog eat dog world out there and Iím wearing milkbone underwear .Ē Ė Norm Peterson
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 6
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Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
October 27th, 2017 at 2:59:34 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Sure.

Similar to some systems like ESPNs FPI, the base system component I use is called TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength). It handles inflation/deflation values for raw statistics by using standard deviation, among other criteria.

The second part is determining probability of scoring for offensive pieces and scoring mitigation from defensive pieces.

The third part is determining overall risk based on similar predictive analysis using regression models.

The fourth is determining current offensive and defensive momentum trends based on performance when playing strong or weak teams.

There are a couple of other smaller trending components.

Last, ATS ratings and ATS historical lines based on scenario driven data.

My system is going to find more teams on the oddsmaker favorite line later in the season. In the beginning of the season there is almost an equal balance of favorites and underdogs because Vegas has inaccuracies in their line settings.

A good example would be UCF. The lines have been set wrong the entire year. Iím going to do my best to take advantage of lines when possible. I try to stay within system picks which is why you see more action on oddsmaker favorites.



This is comedic gold. Thank you for the laugh.
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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October 29th, 2017 at 6:32:01 AM permalink
Joeldeze bludgeoned to a 4-7-1 record (-435$) as the data gets better later in the season.

I'd worry about trying to hit 45% and losing less than you already are, instead of challenging people to accept propositions where you will hit 65%.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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October 29th, 2017 at 10:42:38 AM permalink
No more chirping chips.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Oct 29, 2017
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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