JDeze College Cover Picks
Week 6 Picks:
Wash St. -2.5 (-275 / 250)
TCU -13.5 (-110 / 100)
UCF -16.5 (-120 / 100)
Georgia -16.5 (-130 / 100)
UL Monroe -6.5 (-110 / 110)
Penn St. -13.5 (-110 / 100)
Miami FL -2.5 (-110 / 100)
Tex. San Antonio (UTSA) -12.5 (-110 / 100)
Colorado St. -9 (-110 / 100)
Syracuse (-170 ML) - Suggested Only - Did not Wager - Consider it a pick only
Penn St. is ranked 45th in ATS Rankings going 3-2 ATS with a +8.2 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Northwestern is ranked 73rd in ATS Rankings going 2-2 ATS with a -3.0 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
Penn St. is undefeated and has perhaps the best running back in the nation on its team in Saquon Barkley, who is averaging over 113 yds/pg rushing and 77.2 yds/pg receiving. They are averaging over 41 points per game.
As good as Penn St. is on offense, they are even better on defense. They only allow just over 9 points per game and 280 yds of total offense.
Northwestern is playing at home but they have issues on both sides of the line and will not be able to dominate in the trenches.
Georgia is ranked 5th in the nation in ATS Rankings, going 4-0 ATS with an overwhelming +17.13 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Vanderbilt is ranked 74th in ATS Rankings, going 2-2 with a -4.0 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
Vanderbilt started the year playing lights out and then got hammered by Alabama and lost a dejected match-up with Florida last week. Georgia is very similar to Alabama defensively and houses a tremendous 2-RB tandem in the backfield with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. If QB Jake Fromm doesn't play, Eason is the much stronger QB and the more accurate passer. Both QBs could be starters on any team in the SEC.
UL Monroe is Ranked 24th in the nation in ATS rankings going 3-1 ATS with a +6.5 cover diff above the cover margin.
Texas St. is Ranked 75th in the nation in ATS rankings going 2-2 ATS with a -4.38 cover diff below the cover margin.
ULM has a solid offense (38th in the nation) and are averaging a little over 38 points per game. Texas St. is averaging 12 points per game. Both teams are allowing over 30 points per game to opponents.
Miami is ranked 6th in the nation in ATS Rankings, going 2-0 ATS against FBS opponents with a +13.5 Cover Diff advantage above the spread margin. FSU is ranked 123rd in the nation, going 0-3 ATS with a lackluster -8.83 Cover Diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
FSU, before the season began, was in everyone's playoffs conversation with Clemson in the ACC. After the first game with Alabama where they lost their QB sensation Deondre Francois, everything has gone downhill from there. They are 1-2 overall and coming up against a Miami Hurricanes team that is playing extremely well on both sides of the ball and seeking blood.
Miami's offense will face a very stout FSU defense, but they will be too strong for the Seminoles in this one.
TCU is playing at home and are currently undefeated this season. They come up against a strong West Virginia team led by former Florida QB Will Grier.
TCU is ranked #2 in the nation in ATS Rankings, going 2-0-1 against FBS competition with a +21.75 Cover Diff advantage on non-push games above the spread margin. West Virginia is ranked 55th in ATS Rankings, going 1-1-1 against FBS competition with a +4.5 Cover Diff advantage on non-push games above the spread margin.
TCU's best win this season is a 12 point win over a power house offensive machine in Oklahoma St. Both teams can score well and both have solid defenses but TCU is a much stronger team on both sides of the ball. WVA's defense won't be able to keep up with TCU away. TCU will want to make a statement in this game.
Colorado St. is ranked 18th in ATS Rankings, going 3-1 ATS with a +13.5 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Utah St. is ranked 54th in ATS Rankings going 2-2 with a +4.63 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. CSU is playing well offensively and defensively, and have played a very strong schedule to date. They played surprisingly well against Colorado and Alabama. The 23 points they scored against Alabama's defense is the most points the Tide have given up to an opponent this year. Utah St. got crushed by Wisconsin early on and BYU should not be considered a good win.
UTSA won last year in the same week by 23 points against Southern Miss. They return 7 starters, including their QB on offense and 7 starters on defense. They are currently undefeated (3-0) and are playing strong offensively and defensively, with momentum on both sides of the ball showing solid up measurements after 3 games.
UTSA is ranked #3 in the nation in ATS Rankings, having gone 2-0 ATS against FBS competition, with a +19.5 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Southern Miss is ranked 43rd in ATS Rankings, going 2-1 but showing a -4.83 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
UTSA is playing at home and will be too much for Southern Miss.
Kentucky is only ranked #67 in the nation in ATS Rankings, having a 2-2 ATS against FBS competition with a very modest 0.88 cover diff advantage above the spread margin? So, why take them? Maybe because Missouri is ranked last at #130 in ATS Rankings, going 0-3 ATS against FBS competition with a whopping -26.5 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin!
Kentucky has won the last two meetings straight up and this one won't be any different. The cats may win by 4 touchdowns! What can I say... Misery loves company... (Metallica).
Oregon is down to their 3rd string QB and Wash St. is playing extremely well. Wash St. is 3-1 ATS with a +4.63 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Oregon is ranked 65th in the nation with a 2-2 ATS and a +1.38 cover diff advantage above the spread margin.
UCF is ranked #1 in the nation in ATS Rankings, having gone 3-0 ATS with a monstrous +26.83 cover diff advantage over the spread margin. They are tremendous on both sides of the ball and cruised against a very strong Memphis team last week. Cinci is 3-1 with a +0.75 cover diff advantage over the spread margin.
Hopefully some of the notes help you out and/or some of the picks.
Enjoy.
UL Monroe -6.5 (-110 / 110)
Should read...
UL Monroe -6.5 (-110 / 100)
... not 110.
Quote: RomesThanks for posting these Joel. I don't do a lot of football (college or nfl) betting... but one way to tell if people seem to know what they're doing is to get a decent sampling size of games together and checking out the results/win percentage/etc.
I second this statement! Any chance Joel can break down the NHL for me and others... especially the Puck Line. I would like to start some sort of a sports betting thread where we can collectively take some sort of a challenge. Something like trying to turn 1000 into 10000 in a certain amount of time like 3 or 4 months. or even 10k into 100k. Something like that stock challenge website I read about. My main problem is laziness. I hate taking the time daily to go bet sports or watch lines. I don't want to put the money on websites because of the crazy rollover rules that it takes to get your money in and out. I dunno.
I still have a hard time putting in my free bets every week to try to win 30k for free!
Someone was supposed to be picking the picks for me *cough* and I was going to plug them in. Needless to say I blew off the last two weeks of the NFL Free Contest Picks... I just hate taking the time at the Kiosk. I started to look into it and I probably could get over 100 entries for free but man that is a lot of time pushing buttons at the Kiosk.
Quote: RomesThanks for posting these Joel. I don't do a lot of football (college or nfl) betting... but one way to tell if people seem to know what they're doing is to get a decent sampling size of games together and checking out the results/win percentage/etc.
Welcome Romes.
I also forgot to add Kentucky in the first post but I added the notes.
So, adding it now (note the date/time stamp):
Kentucky -9.5 (-115 / 100)
Notes are in the other notes.
Quote: RomesQuote: JoelDezeWelcome Romes.
I also forgot to add Kentucky in the first post but I added the notes.
So, adding it now (note the date/time stamp):
Kentucky -9.5 (-115 / 100)
Notes are in the other notes.
Thanks for posting these Joel
Don't let it go to your head, Romes kisses a lot of ass. (-;
Adding 3 unique 3-game parlays to the mix as well. I'm basing these on a specific chart I have for ATS ranking difference.
Parlay 1:
Miami FL -2.5 (-110)
Marshall -14 (-110)
Fresno St. -17 (-110)
$50 to win $300
Parlay 2:
Miami -2.5 (-110)
Texas Tech -16 (-110)
Marshall -14 (-110)
$50 to win $300
Parlay 3:
Texas Tech -16 (-110)
Idaho -5.5 (-110)
Utah +3.5 (-110)
$50 to win $300
Here is the table. I'm pretty much choosing the top line teams from the left column with great diff ranges. However, you could also reverse the table and choose right hand teams. The ranking is 1-130 with lowest being best and greatest being worst. Subtracting the ranks produces the diff. Could just convert to ABS but I'm tired tonight. The above are 3 test wagers I'm trying out.
| Team | Rank | Diff | Opponent | Rank |
| Miami (FL) | 6 | -117 | Florida St. | 123 |
| Fresno St. | 10 | -109 | San Jose St. | 119 |
| Marshall | 8 | -103 | Charlotte | 111 |
| Notre Dame | 14 | -101 | North Carolina | 115 |
| Northern Ill. | 12 | -94 | Kent St. | 106 |
| Texas Tech | 40 | -86 | Kansas | 126 |
| Idaho | 42 | -80 | Louisiana | 122 |
| Auburn | 49 | -79 | Ole Miss | 128 |
| Utah | 13 | -70 | Stanford | 83 |
| Georgia | 5 | -69 | Vanderbilt | 74 |
| Ohio | 35 | -69 | Central Mich. | 104 |
| Virginia Tech | 22 | -64 | Boston College | 86 |
| Kentucky | 67 | -63 | Missouri | 130 |
| TCU | 2 | -53 | West Virginia | 55 |
| La.-Monroe | 24 | -51 | Texas St. | 75 |
| Syracuse | 29 | -48 | Pittsburgh | 77 |
| Boise St. | 81 | -44 | BYU | 125 |
| Tulane | 41 | -44 | Tulsa | 85 |
| Iowa | 61 | -40 | Illinois | 101 |
| UTSA | 3 | -40 | Southern Miss. | 43 |
| Fla. Atlantic | 56 | -40 | Old Dominion | 96 |
| Colorado St. | 18 | -36 | Utah St. | 54 |
| Georgia St. | 53 | -36 | Coastal Caro. | 89 |
| UCF | 1 | -31 | Cincinnati | 32 |
| Navy | 64 | -29 | Air Force | 93 |
| Penn St. | 45 | -28 | Northwestern | 73 |
| Wisconsin | 58 | -26 | Nebraska | 84 |
| Oklahoma | 28 | -23 | Iowa St. | 51 |
| Memphis | 99 | -22 | UConn | 121 |
| Western Ky. | 97 | -21 | UTEP | 118 |
| Miami (OH) | 105 | -19 | Bowling Green | 124 |
| Southern California | 116 | -13 | Oregon St. | 129 |
| Clemson | 15 | -4 | Wake Forest | 19 |
| Louisiana Tech | 36 | -3 | UAB | 39 |
| Temple | 109 | -1 | East Carolina | 110 |
| Arkansas St. | 79 | 1 | Ga. Southern | 78 |
| Army West Point | 120 | 3 | Rice | 117 |
| Hawaii | 108 | 5 | Nevada | 103 |
| Ball St. | 82 | 6 | Akron | 76 |
| Louisville | 112 | 10 | NC State | 102 |
| FIU | 98 | 11 | Middle Tenn. | 87 |
| Alabama | 44 | 13 | Texas A&M | 31 |
| Arizona | 88 | 17 | Colorado | 71 |
| Duke | 57 | 20 | Virginia | 37 |
| San Diego St. | 25 | 21 | UNLV | 4 |
| Ohio St. | 66 | 28 | Maryland | 38 |
| Minnesota | 52 | 35 | Purdue | 17 |
| Michigan | 69 | 36 | Michigan St. | 33 |
| Washington | 59 | 39 | California | 20 |
| Western Mich. | 50 | 39 | Buffalo | 11 |
| Oregon | 65 | 39 | Washington St. | 26 |
| LSU | 113 | 43 | Florida | 70 |
| Arkansas | 95 | 48 | South Carolina | 47 |
| Houston | 68 | 61 | SMU | 7 |
| Toledo | 92 | 62 | Eastern Mich. | 30 |
| Kansas St. | 91 | 64 | Texas | 27 |
| Appalachian St. | 94 | 78 | New Mexico St. | 16 |
Can you explain why a parlay is better than straight up bets?
Is the parlay cards giving better odds than if you were to bet straight up?
Are the lines better on lines parlays cards?
Quote: AxelWolfJoelDeze
Can you explain why a parlay is better than straight up bets?
Is the parlay cards giving better odds than if you were to bet straight up?
Are the lines better on lines parlays cards?
Lower overall risk with higher payout odds. That is all I was going for in this scenario. Even though there are (3) 3-game parlays, there are only 6 unique teams. My goal is to win (1 of 3) which will net me +$200. If I went 4-2 SU in this scenario I would be risking $660 to win $600 and would end up winning $400 and losing $220 for a net gain of +$180.
The overall goal is just doing a test with the ATS ranking differences to see if there is any value in doing parlays with them while trying to mitigate overall risk since I already have substantial capital at risk (CAR) for this week. My goal was to stay under $1,750 CAR for Week 6 NCAA.
See image below.
(Image redacted at OP request. Apparently people were able to strip the masking and see personal account information. I will be cropping and replacing the 6 images on this page within the next 24 hours, but OP was not able to edit his own pics at this point.)
Last night, I decided to keep within my winnings for the week and I put 3 wagers in on Memphis. $90 to win $82 SU on -16 ATS. I then put in a 2H wager for them to win SU at -7.5 (+100) $35/$35. And, lastly, put a 2-game parlay in for $25/$73.73 for Memphis to cover by -7.5 and for the over to go over 40.5. I won all 3 of those wagers. See screenshot below.
This puts me at +$341 for the week.
Lastly, because I'm a big cubs fan, I decided to throw in a $50 wager on the Cubs at (+115). The reasoning behind this is because the Cubs are 4-1 with Lester in the playoffs and he's starting to play better. Screenshot below:
That gets me caught up with everything going into Saturdays games. Blue paint dot is my blacking out my account.
Quote: SOOPOOIs it just a coincidence that all your picks are favorites laying points?
Yeah, coincidence. For instance, one of the teams in my 3-game parlay is Utah which is an underdog. Vegas oddsmaker favorites are not always my favorites. These are in fact, system favorites that just happen to be Oddsmaker favorites.
Quote: JoelDezeLate night for me.
Adding 3 unique 3-game parlays to the mix as well. I'm basing these on a specific chart I have for ATS ranking difference.
Parlay 1:
Miami FL -2.5 (-110)
Marshall -14 (-110)
Fresno St. -17 (-110)
$50 to win $300
Parlay 2:
Miami -2.5 (-110)
Texas Tech -16 (-110)
Marshall -14 (-110)
$50 to win $300
Parlay 3:
Texas Tech -16 (-110)
Idaho -5.5 (-110)
Utah +3.5 (-110)
$50 to win $300
I realized that I posted an incorrect parlay so showing the parlays I wagered. I posted in the very early AM and was just tired. My apologies.
---
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Miami, Texas Tech and Marshall does not exist. Although, if I placed a 4th parlay it probably would win. Notre Dame was the missing team.
Also, if you notice on the post I posted at 10:50 AM or so this morning, the tail end shows the start of that parlay which does in fact show Notre Dame in the parlay.
The Notre Dame correction was a winning bet, as MI am and TT covered. But too late for anyone to use it.
Haven't checked your SU list, but I was neutral-to-favoring your work until you published the update. Seems an honest mistake, and really an obvious parlay on those 3 teams given their opponents (Miami was a nail biter, tho), but you lost a bit of credibility with me today. Figured you'd want to know, since you're doing this in the open.
Edit: I said Utah when I meant Idaho. Utah had not yet started, but for parlay purposes, it didn't matter. Western states...you'd never know I lived in Washington state for 10 years....lol.
Quote: beachbumbabsMarshall didn't cover. Utah lost. So all the parlays as first published are dead.
Utah is still playing and in the second quarter.
Quote: beachbumbabsMarshall didn't cover. Utah lost. So all the parlays as first published are dead.
The Notre Dame correction was a winning bet, as MI am and TT covered. But too late for anyone to use it.
Haven't checked your SU list, but I was neutral-to-favoring your work until you published the update. Seems an honest mistake, and really an obvious parlay on those 3 teams given their opponents (Miami was a nail biter, tho), but you lost a bit of credibility with me today. Figured you'd want to know, since you're doing this in the open.
He's thrown an NFL pick into his college record, not listed juice when foolishly buying points, and taken credit for winners posted after the games are over. Switching a parlay middle of the day is just the next step for him, it's par for the course really.
Quote: SM777He's thrown an NFL pick into his college record, not listed juice when foolishly buying points, and taken credit for winners posted after the games are over. Switching a parlay middle of the day is just the next step for him, it's par for the course really.
My College Record is (BELOW):
Non-Wager Picks that Covered:
WON - Syracuse -170 ML
Wager Picks that Covered:
WON - Georgia -16.5 (+$100)
WON - Penn St. -13.5 (+$100)
WON - UL Monroe -6.5 (+$100)
WON - Miami FL -2.5 (+$100)
WON - Colorado St. (+$100)
WON - Wash St. -2.5 (+$250)
WON - UCF -16.5 (game is still considered final and they won by +28, covering) (nothing won nor lost as wager was terminated)
LOST - TCU -13.5 (-$110)
LOST - UTSA -12.5 (-$110)
LOST - Kentucky -9.5 (-$115)
Parlays
WON - Notre Dame -14.5, Texas Tech -16, Miami FL -2.5 (+$300)
LOST - Utah +3.5, Idaho -5.5, Texas Tech -16 (-$50)
LOST - Marshall -14, Fresno St. -17, Miami Fl -2.5 (-$50)
I went 7-3 on ATS wagered picks, 1-0 on ML picks not wagered on.
Overall 8-3 on picks, 1-2 on parlays.
Money won: $1,050
Money lost: $435
Net: +$615 (on all posted picks)
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The parlays are clearly shown and the Notre Dame parlay is posted as of this morning.
THE JUICE IS LISTED IN THE ATS SPREADS!! READ BETTER!
If a line is -130/100 what do you think the juice is? Unbelievable......
Once again, I'm going to ask a Moderator to do something about SM777 for his trolling and genuine harassment on my threads. Everything I posted is visible and easy to read. If he can't read well that's not my fault. I'm really tired of the misinformation he provides and the constant false information he continues to post.
Finished the week +$906 and have screen shots of every wager, every outcome so if SM777 want's to go that route I'll disprove him yet again. I would have been $1,006 but the UCF as far as wagering goes did not reach mid 4th Q, even though it was final and the score is set with UCF winning by +28. So, annoying weather but I can't do anything about that.
Quote: JoelDeze
(Snip)...
The parlays are clearly shown and the Notre Dame parlay is posted as of this morning.
THE JUICE IS LISTED IN THE ATS SPREADS!! READ BETTER!
If a line is -130/100 what do you think the juice is? Unbelievable......
Once again, I'm going to ask a Moderator to do something about SM777 for his trolling and genuine harassment on my threads. Everything I posted is visible and easy to read. If he can't read well that's not my fault. I'm really tired of the misinformation he provides and the constant false information he continues to post.
Finished the week +$906 and have screen shots of every wager, every outcome so if SM777 want's to go that route I'll disprove him yet again. I would have been $1,006 but the UCF as far as wagering goes did not reach mid 4th Q, even though it was final and the score is set with UCF winning by +28. So, annoying weather but I can't do anything about that.
So, ok. I'm apologizing for my credibility swipe. Not your fault the parlays you picked lost. As I said, honest mistake on the one mis-posted. Was a bit unhappy you didn't correct the error before game time, as I was going with your parlay picks, and the one that won was the one mis-posted. So you caught a few sour grapes you probably didn't deserve.
Yeah, also, I agree SM777 has been dogging you some, though imo it falls short of trolling. He's trying to be factual in his criticism of your methods. However, I think you and he may be losing things in translation, and I'm ignorant of the argot and implications of sports betting, so I've stopped short of adminning your threads and his criticisms. Mission, who does understand better than I do, has already stepped in once, so I've asked him to look at the threads again. On the face of it, I say again, SM777 has stopped short of trolling you, imo.
Your best course of action is to prove him wrong. 8-3 or 7-3 or whatever (saw both claimed) is pretty profitable. Nice job! Is it repeatable? Consistent? Are you perhaps a little sloppy on some of the details he's calling you out on? If you can use what's constructive and ignore the rest to show a better product, that only makes you look good.
Quote: beachbumbabsSo, ok. I'm apologizing for my credibility swipe. Not your fault the parlays you picked lost. As I said, honest mistake on the one mis-posted. Was a bit unhappy you didn't correct the error before game time, as I was going with your parlay picks, and the one that won was the one mis-posted. So you caught a few sour grapes you probably didn't deserve.
Yeah, also, I agree SM777 has been dogging you some, though imo it falls short of trolling. He's trying to be factual in his criticism of your methods. However, I think you and he may be losing things in translation, and I'm ignorant of the argot and implications of sports betting, so I've stopped short of adminning your threads and his criticisms. Mission, who does understand better than I do, has already stepped in once, so I've asked him to look at the threads again. On the face of it, I say again, SM777 has stopped short of trolling you, imo.
Your best course of action is to prove him wrong. 8-3 or 7-3 or whatever (saw both claimed) is pretty profitable. Nice job! Is it repeatable? Consistent? Are you perhaps a little sloppy on some of the details he's calling you out on? If you can use what's constructive and ignore the rest to show a better product, that only makes you look good.
What was the score of the Notre Dame game when he posted his revised parlay that included them ?
Quote: JoelDezeMy College Record is (BELOW):
Non-Wager Picks that Covered:
WON - Syracuse -170 ML
Wager Picks that Covered:
WON - Georgia -16.5 (+$100)
WON - Penn St. -13.5 (+$100)
WON - UL Monroe -6.5 (+$100)
WON - Miami FL -2.5 (+$100)
WON - Colorado St. (+$100)
WON - Wash St. -2.5 (+$250)
WON - UCF -16.5 (game is still considered final and they won by +28, covering) (nothing won nor lost as wager was terminated)
LOST - TCU -13.5 (-$110)
LOST - UTSA -12.5 (-$110)
LOST - Kentucky -9.5 (-$115)
Parlays
WON - Notre Dame -14.5, Texas Tech -16, Miami FL -2.5 (+$300)
LOST - Utah +3.5, Idaho -5.5, Texas Tech -16 (-$50)
LOST - Marshall -14, Fresno St. -17, Miami Fl -2.5 (-$50)
I went 7-3 on ATS wagered picks, 1-0 on ML picks not wagered on.
Overall 8-3 on picks, 1-2 on parlays.
Money won: $1,050
Money lost: $435
Net: +$615 (on all posted picks)
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The parlays are clearly shown and the Notre Dame parlay is posted as of this morning.
THE JUICE IS LISTED IN THE ATS SPREADS!! READ BETTER!
If a line is -130/100 what do you think the juice is? Unbelievable......
Once again, I'm going to ask a Moderator to do something about SM777 for his trolling and genuine harassment on my threads. Everything I posted is visible and easy to read. If he can't read well that's not my fault. I'm really tired of the misinformation he provides and the constant false information he continues to post.
Finished the week +$906 and have screen shots of every wager, every outcome so if SM777 want's to go that route I'll disprove him yet again. I would have been $1,006 but the UCF as far as wagering goes did not reach mid 4th Q, even though it was final and the score is set with UCF winning by +28. So, annoying weather but I can't do anything about that.
I factually stated three things you did last year when posting picks. I didn't accuse you of doing it here in this thread today. I can't possibly imagine you'd post winners after the results again.
The damage was done in the Chiefs thread. I posted the link to prove your shortcomings when keeping an accurate record. Lying about juice, posting winners after the results, and throwing an NFL winner into your college record.
However, this whole parlay switcheroo is completely par for the course for you. I'm actually surprised it hadn't happened before.
Why is it trolling if I provided a link to the proof? I don't get it. You did all those things, own up to them. No bait/trolling here. Just factual information on what you did last season.
It's a free for all with JoelDeeze on pages 4, 5, and 6. Multiple members call him out for posting winners after the results, one member calls him out for adding Atlanta into his college record, another member has to calculate his losing week for him because he conveniently got busy during a week in which he got crushed and didn't have 45 seconds to calculate his losses, and another member calls him out for not posting about juice as he's just randomly buying points and posting lines not available to anyone.
This all comes full circle, because to begin that season Joel was touting his "free" advice or picks information website. In order to scam people into that, he had to appear better than he actually was. Hence the reason for adding NFL winners into a college record, posting lines with points bought but calling them -110, and posting winners after the results. For reference, one member even thanks him for his free login and password in the thread linked.
If I stopped one WoV member from getting scammed, then I did my job.
But, if you ask JoelDeeze, it is me who is trolling....
Quote: JoelDeze
As for Troy they covered. At the time of the post they were at -21 and I bought to -19.5. Yes, I bought a full 1.5 points.
SM777, I think you are shorting him on his stupidest play. He bought 1.5 points in a college game.
My explanation on that thread link was accurate. You and I will never agree.
This year I waited until week 6 to post in order to allow data to build.
Going forward, if I post a parlay, I will post the image as it contains all of the pertinent information to avoid mistakes.
As for this topic, you posted in it and instead of discussing the information and results in this thread you are trolling and discussing things related to last season and in my opinion are appearing to hijack the topic and turn it into something it is not.
Are you saying that the image I posted for parlays which shows all of the relevant information is fake or false? If so, please provide proof. Otherwise this is my picks thread. Talk about things pertaining to this thread only please.
Thanks.
Quote: JoelDezeSM777,
My explanation on that thread link was accurate. You and I will never agree.
This year I waited until week 6 to post in order to allow data to build.
Going forward, if I post a parlay, I will post the image as it contains all of the pertinent information to avoid mistakes.
As for this topic, you posted in it and instead of discussing the information and results in this thread you are trolling and discussing things related to last season and in my opinion are appearing to hijack the topic and turn it into something it is not.
Are you saying that the image I posted for parlays which shows all of the relevant information is fake or false? If so, please provide proof. Otherwise this is my picks thread. Talk about things pertaining to this thread only please.
Thanks.
Honestly, I don't believe the posted parlays were fake. Would I be surprised if you were photoshopping and misguiding by changing parlays during the games, absolutely not. But again, I'm not going to sit here and accuse you of that, but the fact it happened raises a lot of eyebrows considering the many damaging things you've done during your record keeping.
Quote: DRichSM777, I think you are shorting him on his stupidest play. He bought 1.5 points in a college game.
Wait, buying 1.5 points in a college football game with a total in the 60's isn't a sharp play?!? Haha!!! That's great.
Quote: JoelDeze
Are you saying that the image I posted for parlays which shows all of the relevant information is fake or false? If so, please provide proof. Otherwise this is my picks thread. Talk about things pertaining to this thread only please.
Thanks.
I think what he is saying is that you didn't correct the parlay win until after the game started. How do we know that you would have corrected it if it was losing? I do believe that may have been an honest mistake but please don't bring up any results that were not posted or you will continue to lose credibility. to say things like "I went 6-0 in all of the other games I bet so I actually had a winning day" only makes you look bad. Keep your results to the games posted ahead of time and let the results speak for themselves.
BTW, good job on your college picks this week.
Here is the final history from this week.
1. A team like Alabama almost never covers the spread when it is playing a cream puff team from a non-power-5 conference. The public expects Alabama to beat the creampuff by 40 pts -but 12 out of the last 12 times it has not happened. You can make a lot of money if you understand that.
Conversely, Alabama often beats the spread against an SEC team that is good but not great: the players get up for the game, or whatever.
Your ATS analysis will not pick up that pattern in Alabama's ATS performance.
2. The spread often underestimates the impact of injuries to players that occur in the last week or two -or the impact from the return of injured players.
3. The spread often overreacts to the previous week's performance -particularly when a team is surprisingly awful or surprisingly dominant. You might analyze how well teams do against the spread a week after they beat the spread by 14 points or a week after they failed to cover the spread by 14 points.
4. A new quarterback can improve greatly during a season (ditto for an offensive line or a defense with a new coordinator) -causing a team to underperform ATS early in the year and beat the spread later in the year.
I'm not saying that your ATS analysis is worthless -it will probably pick up some interesting trends. But "asking the right questions" is important to any mathematical analysis, and its not clear to me that you are asking the right questions.
Quote: gordonm888Your ATS ranking methodology seems to have an underlying assumption that nothing changes during the year to make a team have a different probability of beating the spread.
1. A team like Alabama almost never covers the spread when it is playing a cream puff team from a non-power-5 conference. The public expects Alabama to beat the creampuff by 40 pts -but 12 out of the last 12 times it has not happened. You can make a lot of money if you understand that.
Conversely, Alabama often beats the spread against an SEC team that is good but not great: the players get up for the game, or whatever.
Your ATS analysis will not pick up that pattern in Alabama's ATS performance.
2. The spread often underestimates the impact of injuries to players that occur in the last week or two -or the impact from the return of injured players.
3. The spread often overreacts to the previous week's performance -particularly when a team is surprisingly awful or surprisingly dominant. You might analyze how well teams do against the spread a week after they beat the spread by 14 points or a week after they failed to cover the spread by 14 points.
4. A new quarterback can improve greatly during a season (ditto for an offensive line or a defense with a new coordinator) -causing a team to underperform ATS early in the year and beat the spread later in the year.
I'm not saying that your ATS analysis is worthless -it will probably pick up some interesting trends. But "asking the right questions" is important to any mathematical analysis, and its not clear to me that you are asking the right questions.
No, I'm not relying solely on that. All of the picks have to be system driven. There are many calculations that go into the initial pick. The ATS rankings only provide me additional visibility as to who is covering and by how much in each scenario.
There is a lot more data involved here.
If Alabama is playing Troy for instance, the scenario I look at is how are they covering as a P5 playing a G5 at home/away and by how much cover diff. The AI drives into scenario data. This week I just simplified it to provide an overall cover diff.
I look at the scenario data after correlation with system picks.
I can understand why you would assume that though. Are you interested in me posting a complete ATS breakdown? I can try to table format that but it's a lot of data.
I may add more picks throughout the week but will make sure that they are unedited so the timestamp remains. I'll post game info below this topic after I reserve it. I forgot to click the link and sort by time but I'm sure you all can figure it out.
Only one parlay this week and it's for tonight's game with Troy and South Alabama.
Good Luck.
Florida is battered in many areas coming into this game. They will more than likely be without Cleveland and Toney, the best two offensive players at this point. More importantly, starting right guard Brett Heggie is out due to a concussion and is listed as doubtful. They already are feeling effects of the 10 suspensions that happened before the season began, including their #1 WR and RB combo.
Texas A&M is ready to breakout. They are 4-0 ATS this season against FBS competition with a +5.2 diff advantage above the cover margin. Florida is 2-3, with a -1.7 cover diff disadvantage below the cover margin.
Even though Florida is playing at home where the Gators have been fairly successful, the injuries and lack of offensive momentum under QB Franks is a sore indicator that points to Texas A&M winning this one outright.
Harbaugh will have Michigan ready to play for this one and expect a well managed game plan that will fix a few holes in the Wolverines' offense under QB O'Korn. Defensively, they have a tremendous advantage over Indiana's up-tempo offense. Michigan has won the last two games by 7 and 10. Turnovers will be a key in this game as both teams are prone to turnovers. Michigan has the edge by +2 over Indiana. O'Korn's INTs last week cost Michigan the game against Michigan St. Indiana's defense is decent but lacks finishing power in the 2nd half.
Army has won the last two contests by 25 points and 22 points. Eastern Mich has had some trouble against this service academy. Army is playing well, having returned 9 starters on offense this season. They are averaging almost 33 points per game.
Both teams have been stingy allowing points defensively. Army gives up 19.2 and E. Mich gives up 18.2. However, E. Mich is only averaging less than 19 points per game on offense. Army is very disciplined, +3 in TM and only committing 35 yds of penalties per game.
Both teams resemble each other in many respects. Both offenses score more than 40 points per game and both defenses allow roughly 27 points per game. They also both like to beat up on Kansas.
West Virginia has won the last two games. Last year, they won by 31 points.
Former Florida QB sensation Will Grier leads West Virginia against Texas Tech and they are playing at home. They've played a fairly difficult schedule so far this season, having lost to both Virginia Tech and TCU by 7 points apiece. Texas Tech's only loss was to Oklahoma St. by a touchdown.
On paper, these teams are fairly even but the home crowd, in that bumble bee covered yellow, gives the advantage to West Va, especially on critical 3rd down conversions.
Both teams have split the last two meetings, each winning by 3 points. Tennessee has dipped in momentum offensively every week since week 2. They are struggling to maintain possession, going -4 on turnover margin and averaging just over 26 min on time of possession. South Carolina hasn't been that much better offensively, rating out slightly a cut above Tennessee in almost all areas.
Defensively, the Vols are allowing over 250 yards rushing per game and the Gamecocks have been waiting to get their ground game going. This is primarily why the game management edge goes to South Carolina in this game. Tennessee has also been dealing with incredible negativity over the last couple of weeks and there have been many distractions for this team. South Carolina is +7 in TM and the ground game should provide a spark to maintaining ball control over the course of the game.
Marshall has played very consistently over the start of the season. Their only loss has been to NC State who is playing very solid right now. ODU is allowing opponents just under 35 points per game defensively, giving up almost 470 yards per game. Marshall has shown considerable up-tick momentum defensively the past 3 weeks and are allowing only 17.4 points per game, including only 340 yards per game. Time of Possession, game management and experience are in favor of Marshall.
Marshall is (4-1) ATS with a +7.7 cover diff above the spread margin. ODU is (1-3) ATS with a -12.13 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
The ATS is a bit of a reach but defensively, Marshall gets it done.
Ohio won last year's match-up 30-24. This year, offensively, they are averaging over 38 points while Bowling Green is averaging over 19. Defensively, Bowling Green is allowing more than 34 points per game. Bowling Green is weak offensively and defensively.
Even though Ohio is 3-2 ATS, Bowling Green is (1-4) ATS with a -3.6 cover diff below the spread margin.
Ohio should win by two touchdowns.
North Carolina has won the last two years they've played Virginia. However, this year Virginia has stepped it up on both sides of the ball. Virginia is averaging almost 31 points per game and giving up 21. North Carolina is averaging 25 points per game and giving up 33. Against similar powered teams, North Carolina has lost by an average of 13 points. Virginia's only loss came to Indiana and they have good wins over Boise St. and Duke.
Virginia is (3-1) ATS with a +8.25 cover diff advantage over the spread margin. North Carolina is (1-5) ATS with a -5.5 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
Auburn is starting to come alive. They are 5-1 and QB Jarrett Stidham is beginning to get more comfortable in the offense. Defensively, they are solid, allowing only 13 points and 290 total yards per game. LSU survived against Florida last week, only doing so because of a bobbled snap and a missed extra point by the Gators. Florida was winning the second half and would have more than likely won in OT. But, even Tigers have nine lives.
The LSU Tigers are not very good or deep in most areas on offense, and have not played very well this year. They are gaining 390 yards and just over 25 points per game. Defensively, they are consistent, giving up less than 19 points per game. They will have a tough task to face when going against an Auburn offense that is averaging almost 36 points per game and have a whopping 48.9 percentage conversion on 3rd downs.
LSU is overmatched, even at home.
UTSA has a good offense and an extremely strong defense. Defensively, TX San Antonio is allowing just over 260 yards and 18 points per game. North Texas is allowing more than 400 yards and 34 points per game.
Both teams know how to score with UTSA averaging 35 PtsGm and North Texas averaging 38 PtsGm. However, UTSA is converting almost 48% of the time on 3rd down while North Texas is averaging just 36%.
UTSA has the advantage on offense vs. North Texas's defense. UTSA also is (2-1) ATS against FBS competition, going +8.17 over the spread margin set by the oddsmaker.
Undefeated San Diego St. plays at home versus Boise St.
Boise St. has been lackluster on offense, averaging only 340 yards per game. Defensively, they are allowing over 24 points per game and have relied on their defense to keep them in most contests. San Diego St. is averaging close to 32 points per game on offense and only allow opponents 19 points per game. They have the more complete team and have a significant edge in rushing efficiency rating difference, and will look to enforce their 222 yds/pgm advantage over Boise St.
San Diego St. is looking to extend its lead in the Mountain West and are vying to compete in one of the New Years Six games. They will want to have an extremely good showing against a highly recognized team.
Can you taste how salty Axel is that I don't kiss his ass all the time??? ;-)Quote: AxelWolf...Don't let it go to your head, Romes kisses a lot of ass. (-;
Edit - Any chance you could do NFL predictions? I know 'a little' about the NFL and nothing about college and would like to see if the very very little I know/research is anywhere along the same thought paths that you take.
Many years ago, I used to calculate power ratings for CFB and NFL teams -but I've decided that ESPN's FPI is about as good as almost anyone can do. And I realize that the sportsbooks use a very sophisticated proprietary model to calculate power ratings as a basis for setting their opening lines.
So, instead of reinventing the wheel on power ratings, I now try to pay attention to factors that I categorize as "inefficiencies in the line" to see where I might get an edge. But I'm always learning and anxious to learn more. I'll continue to read your predictions. Good luck with this.
Quote: gordonm888JoelDeze, thanks for your reply about your methodology - it does make me place more weight on your recommendations.
Many years ago, I used to calculate power ratings for CFB and NFL teams -but I've decided that ESPN's FPI is about as good as almost anyone can do. And I realize that the sportsbooks use a very sophisticated proprietary model to calculate power ratings as a basis for setting their opening lines.
So, instead of reinventing the wheel on power ratings, I now try to pay attention to factors that I categorize as "inefficiencies in the line" to see where I might get an edge. But I'm always learning and anxious to learn more. I'll continue to read your predictions. Good luck with this.
Kenneth Massey, one of the former BCS computing ratings, keeps a consolidated listing of rankings for college football. It comprises pretty much every ranking scale system I've seen on the web.
However, I won't link the site due to my rankings being a part of the composite. You can do a search for it though. I find it more valuable than the FPI, which has its usefulness but is limited to one set of algorithms.
And, I've known Ken for 9-10 years. He is a good guy. He is always trying to get the numbers right.
Quote: RomesAny chance you could do NFL predictions? I know 'a little' about the NFL and nothing about college and would like to see if the very very little I know/research is anywhere along the same thought paths that you take.
I have a thread for NFL picks. I will update them every Friday. I'm 2-1 so far. Buffalo missed a push last week by 1 point. I went 1-1 last week. KC has been an easy cover so far this season. I'll update it tomorrow.
Quote: RomesWhile some controversy, I again still just want to say, so long as you get the picks in before, I enjoy reading about your thoughts and seeing how you do as more data is collected - so thanks for that yet again!
Can you taste how salty Axel is that I don't kiss his ass all the time??? ;-)
I licked Axel once. No salt to speak of. Hint of lime, though. Shots on a sodium diet?
Quote: JoelDezeWeek 7 Picks
Another winning week, good job.
The Wins:
Michigan managed to pull it out in overtime 27-20 @ Indiana.
West Virginia overcame a -18 point deficit to win 46-35 behind Will Grier's 5 TD passes.
South Carolina beat Tennessee 15-9 on a solid defensive showing @ Tennessee.
Marshall crushed ODU 35-3.
Ohio pulled away in the second half to win 48-30 over Bowling Green.
Virginia beat North Carolina 20-14 for their first win since 2009.
Texas A&M outlasted Florida's inept offense 19-17. (by the way I am a die-hard Florida Gator's fan and I bet against my team)
The Losses:
Army was leading late and could have had a "lucky" chance in OT but Eastern Mich opted to go for 2 instead of tying it to go to OT. The 2-pt conversion failed so Army won by 1 point, failing the cover.
Auburn was up 23-14 in the 4th quarter (covering) but poor QB play allowed LSU to come back to score 14 points and pull off the upset over 10th Ranked Auburn. This was a tough game to watch.
San Diego St. was the most disappointing game of all. They allowed a special teams touchdown right from the start. Then fumbled and allowed a fumble return for a touchdown to go down 14-0. Offensively, they showed nothing in the first half. They outgained Boise St. in the 2nd half 14-10 but I stopped watching the game in the 4th. Too late for me on East Coast time.
On a week where there were 4 Top-10 upsets, I'm okay with the meager plus winnings.
Quote: JoelDezeI went 7-4 this week on a rather tough week with only +$200 to show for it. I watched all of the games.
It looks like 7-5 because you had 12 bets and your win was $150. Any winning week is good.
Quote: DRichIt looks like 7-5 because you had 12 bets and your win was $150. Any winning week is good.
7-4 on posted ATS picks
0-1 on posted parlays.
Win is $150 on posted but I'm personally $200 right now. I'll post my end week history later on.
And, no, it's frustrating. I could have gone 6-5 or 8-3. I'd rather the latter.
Quote: JoelDeze
Win is $150 on posted but I'm personally $200 right now. I'll post my end week history later on.
Please don't tell us about your other wins that aren't posted here. That is how you will lose credibility.
Quote: DRichPlease don't tell us about your other wins that aren't posted here. That is how you will lose credibility.
I hope you're not surprised by this. Or if you are, you must've missed my numerous documented posts of Joel lying and forging records and profitability on this site in an attempt to appear to be a sharp sports bettor. Presumably all in an attempt to get people to sign up to his scam of a website. It really never ends with this guy.
But as always, members here will give him a pass because he's posting "information," whatever that means.
It's sad really.
Quote: SM777I hope you're not surprised by this. Or if you are, you must've missed my numerous documented posts of Joel lying and forging records and profitability on this site in an attempt to appear to be a sharp sports bettor. Presumably all in an attempt to get people to sign up to his scam of a website. It really never ends with this guy.
But as always, members here will give him a pass because he's posting "information," whatever that means.
It's sad really.
I was on Joel's side until he hit us with that... "I coulda shoulda woulda stuff about going 6-5 or 8-3. I know players all the time saying... I didn't have to lose! I hate this line of thinking. I'm from the school that says... at the end of the day I count up all my money and that's how I know the score! Daily isnt exactly the point I'm trying to make but a hustler or AP should be winning consistently, even with down weeks or months they should always be ahead every year IMO.
Quote: monet0412I was on Joel's side until he hit us with that... "I coulda shoulda woulda stuff about going 6-5 or 8-3. I know players all the time saying... I didn't have to lose! I hate this line of thinking. I'm from the school that says... at the end of the day I count up all my money and that's how I know the score! Daily isnt exactly the point I'm trying to make but a hustler or AP should be winning consistently, even with down weeks or months they should always be ahead every year IMO.
Nope. Just frustrated. I also enjoy watching college football. I'm a big fan of the sport. This week I was more disappointed with coaching decisions. These coaches get paid big money and some of them make the worst decisions.
Overall, it wasn't a loss week but i am very competitive.
As for me having opinions? I have opinions.
Quote: DRichPlease don't tell us about your other wins that aren't posted here. That is how you will lose credibility.
Understandable.
Here are the totals through 2 weeks on "posted wagers" only:
Using $100 as equal to 1.0u (units)
Week 6 Results:
ATS Picks: 7-3 +4.15u
Parlays: 1-2 +2.0u
Week 7 Results:
ATS Picks: 7-4 +2.0u
Parlays: 0-1 -0.5u
Totals:
ATS Picks: 14-7 +6.15u
Parlays: 1-3 +1.5u
Total Units: +7.65u
If anything is incorrect, please let me know.
Thanks.
I do not expect a picker to be:
- at 50% or above every week
- to have a long-term average above 70% every week.
I realize that even the best pickers may occasionally go 0-5 in a week. That's okay, as long as the long-term average is 55% or higher.
What is a little troubling to me is that you seem to be overly defensive about having a week with a few wrong picks. As if you don't understand the concept of statistical variance. And, as if you don't have the emotional make-up of someone who has been betting for quite a while and has seen a lot of crazy things happen both ways. It does not make a positive impression on your readers, IMO.
Guys get injured. Coaches screw up. Refs screw up. Great players have bad days and bad players have great days.
This is all part of what you are betting on, like the zero on a roullete wheel. Except that many of these things help and hurt you equally over time.
Of course, in the moment, it is natural to have a reaction. But even then, it should come to bother you less and less. I don't watch the games much at all, myself.
