DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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October 12th, 2017 at 1:39:59 PM permalink
Watched Baker's pre-game press conference a few minutes ago. Gonzalez announced for the start tonight, with Roark & everyone not named Strasburg in the pen.

ALCS Game 1 NYY@HOU line is running from +160/-180 to +155/-175.

World Series futures implied probability (break even pct with vig) / FiveThirtyEight's probability estimate:
LAD 33%/30%
HOU 31%/29%
NYY 26%/21%
CHC 13%/10%
WAS 13%/10%

in my opinion the probability that it will be LAD & HOU in the WS after winning their respective NL/AL pennants is higher than that, and I'm debating how to structure some wagers accordingly.

EDIT to add, postgame:

I think it might be time for people in Washington to begin whispering about The Curse of Youppi, the old Montreal Expos mascot who was jilted when that franchise rudely dumped their adoring Quebec fans, split town to head for a swamp on the Potomac, and changed their nameÖ





So now it will be up to LA to reestablish the natural order of the universe, restoring devoted Cubs followers to their proper & customary state of misery. And incidentally to stick a fork in the Cubshype & Maddonworship industry. I think they are well equipped to get that public service done.

Before the CHC-WAS game I placed wagers on both the Dodgers & Astros to win the World Series, each of them booked at 2/1. So for that to be profitable requires > 67% expectation that one of them will win it. Yeah, thatís probably pushing my opinion right up to the edge, because this is baseball, and lotsa random stuff happens. I also have a smaller wager on the Dodgers to win the NLCS. Wagering on Houston to win the ALCS was off the board. But as a baseball fan Iím fine with any result that does not involve the unnatural & obnoxious outcome of a blue teddy bear themed outfit winning any more things & stuff.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 12, 2017
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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October 12th, 2017 at 2:14:34 PM permalink
Should I assume New York sports fans will now be over booing their manager, and ready to move on to heckling the next shiny object? Dunno for sure, cuz I don't speak NaYawka. Or even Joyzee.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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Thanks for this post from:
RisingDough
October 13th, 2017 at 12:40:49 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux



I'll predict Nats/Indians. .



Buy my MLB post season ten star package for just $499.
billryan
billryan
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Thanks for this post from:
ontariodealer
October 13th, 2017 at 12:54:19 AM permalink
What a horrible way to snuff out a rally. I really hate that rule.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
Keeneone
Keeneone
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October 13th, 2017 at 8:06:39 AM permalink
@DD - So you really bet NYY and CHI to win it all @ 4/1 each? ;)


Quote: billryan

What a horrible way to snuff out a rally. I really hate that rule.


The replay review of the pick off @ 1st base in the eighth?


Quote: Rigondeaux

Buy my MLB post season ten star package for just $499.


Funny. A real tout would have said something like this...

Sorry everyone, I thought this thread was about 2018 MLB futures.
billryan
billryan
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October 13th, 2017 at 10:05:32 AM permalink
Yes, I can't believe the intention of the rule was so if the runner loses contact with the base for even a millisecond, that they are out.
The Encarcion play in Game One was equally bad, in my opinion
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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October 13th, 2017 at 10:39:24 PM permalink
That was just fine. I like watching good fielding. Let's do it again real soon like that.

Quote: Joe Girardi

...We thought he was out, but God knows I'm not doin' THAT again.


DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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October 14th, 2017 at 3:38:24 PM permalink
I don't often make individual game wagers in the postseason, because I think the level of attention at this point results in a more informed betting market without cherry picking opportunities for the few remaining games. I didn't bet NYY/HOU yesterday, but I did bet both of today's games. I have a modest wager on HOU, and an even smaller one on LAD, both on the moneyline. I was most interested in the LA game, but scaled back my wager due partly to the chalky line, but even more to some peculiarities of the Dodger lineup and not getting the matchup I was hoping for. Maybe I'll get into my reasons later, if i'm not taking up too much of the virtual space in this thread. But for right now, I think I probably don't get a ticket allowing me to either gloat or whine if I didn't post about an alleged wager 'till afterward. As I make this note I'm catching up with the ALCS game on my DVR (4th inning 1-0) and they're probably in about the 7th in real time, so I can only do about a third of a chortle or snivel about that one. Both wagers are smaller than my WS wagers which assume it will not be won by the young emerging Yankees, not quite yet this year, or by another infestation of annoying little blue bears and their sodden stumbling followers.

I'm becoming more interested in the o/u run lines, but I'm not experienced at evaluating those so I'm not betting them for now.

Probably not everyone here has ready access to everything Nevada books put on the board, so here's some William Hill lines as of about half past noon today:

ALCS Gm2: NYY +122, HOU -132
NLCS Gm1 CHC +170, LAD -190

AL Pennant: NYY +235, HOU -275
NL Pennant: CHC +165, LAD -185

Here are props I have lines for. I found a couple of them intriguing, but didn't have the data available with me to feel strongly enough to bet it/them, either individually or in an arbitrage with something that should tend to be correlated. But i have some tentative opinions about some of these, and would be interested in others thoughts on them regardless of outcome today:

Score first: NYY -140, HOU +120
Game total runs+hits+errors NYY+HOU 24.5, OV -110, UN -110
Most total bases (hits only): Gregorius vs Altuve 110/-110; and same prop: Judge vs. Correa -110/-110
Bird home run YES +450, NO -600; Springer home run YES +400, NO -550
Total K's: Severino 6.5 OV -120, UN +100; Verlander 6 OV -110, UN -110

Score first: CHC EV, LAD -120
Game total runs+hits+errors CHC+LAD 23, OV -110, UN -110
Most total bases (hits only): Rizzo vs Bellinger +105/-125; and same prop: Russell EV vs. Seager* -EV/-120
Bryant home run YES +350, NO -430; Turner home run YES +300, NO -360
Total K's: Quintana 5 OV -135, UN +115; Kershaw 7 OV -125, UN +105

*Line posted before Seager declared out of NLCS roster.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 14, 2017
Keeneone
Keeneone
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October 17th, 2017 at 9:17:43 AM permalink
Nice to see the Yanks get the win yesterday with good pitching and the longball. 2 games today. Not sure what Gray/McCullers will give us tonight.
LAD vs CHI gives us 2 righties going, Darvish/Hendricks. Each allow over a home run per 9 innings. Combined with:
http://www.windsblowingout.com/index.php
I am looking at the over 8 runs.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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October 17th, 2017 at 10:58:31 AM permalink
Westgate lines: LAD +104, CHC -114; HOU +132, NYY -142. At first glance that looks about right to me; no bet here.

I really enjoyed the first two tight tough games of the ALCS, which I thought were very well played, and not necessarily because of the result. I thought it was nice to have a couple of baseball games as a break from the season long home run derby. Okay, so that interlude is probably over now.

Before last night's game the betting market was pricing both Los Angeles and Houston each at nearly 85% probability of winning their respective pennants. Though it made my WS tickets look good, I thought and continue to think that was a no touch price overdoing it on the favorites after two games in each league holding serve at home ballparks. For example William Hill had HOU at -475 after the 2nd game, which would be far too chalky to swallow especially considering the way those were won, and either or both series could easily be competitive. Beating out an infield hit, stealing a base, scratching out a run. In Houston, one outfielder fields cleanly and instantly wheels to perfectly hit the designated cutoff/relay for a crucial out at the plate by an eyelash, the other overthrows his designated cutoff resulting in a difficult relay from 2nd base when the play is at home allowing the winning run. Maybe show me a price like that -475 if it goes to 3-0 in Chicago, depending on the status of the respective pitching staffs after, otherwise getouttaherewidat.

Has Judge suddenly made the re-adjustment, as most talented but still young & developing players must do at some point, to close the exploitable hole opponents have discovered in his swing and stance in the box (breaking low & away, low & away, away, away, away) that changed him from a slugging machine to a strikeout machine in recent weeks? Or was he pitched poorly last night?

A little disappointed I probably won't get Lackey named as a starter in any of the NLCS games now. I saw a lot of him in St. Louis, and he's many very fine things, but he's not well suited to matchup specifically with the Dodger's lineup.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 17, 2017

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