I don't often make individual game wagers in the postseason, because I think the level of attention at this point results in a more informed betting market without cherry picking opportunities for the few remaining games. I didn't bet NYY/HOU yesterday, but I did bet both of today's games. I have a modest wager on HOU, and an even smaller one on LAD, both on the moneyline. I was most interested in the LA game, but scaled back my wager due partly to the chalky line, but even more to some peculiarities of the Dodger lineup and not getting the matchup I was hoping for. Maybe I'll get into my reasons later, if i'm not taking up too much of the virtual space in this thread. But for right now, I think I probably don't get a ticket allowing me to either gloat or whine if I didn't post about an alleged wager 'till afterward. As I make this note I'm catching up with the ALCS game on my DVR (4th inning 1-0) and they're probably in about the 7th in real time, so I can only do about a third of a chortle or snivel about that one. Both wagers are smaller than my WS wagers which assume it will not be won by the young emerging Yankees, not quite yet this year, or by another infestation of annoying little blue bears and their sodden stumbling followers.
I'm becoming more interested in the o/u run lines, but I'm not experienced at evaluating those so I'm not betting them for now.
Probably not everyone here has ready access to everything Nevada books put on the board, so here's some William Hill lines as of about half past noon today:
ALCS Gm2: NYY +122, HOU -132
NLCS Gm1 CHC +170, LAD -190
AL Pennant: NYY +235, HOU -275
NL Pennant: CHC +165, LAD -185
Here are props I have lines for. I found a couple of them intriguing, but didn't have the data available with me to feel strongly enough to bet it/them, either individually or in an arbitrage with something that should tend to be correlated. But i have some tentative opinions about some of these, and would be interested in others thoughts on them regardless of outcome today:
Score first: NYY -140, HOU +120
Game total runs+hits+errors NYY+HOU 24.5, OV -110, UN -110
Most total bases (hits only): Gregorius vs Altuve 110/-110; and same prop: Judge vs. Correa -110/-110
Bird home run YES +450, NO -600; Springer home run YES +400, NO -550
Total K's: Severino 6.5 OV -120, UN +100; Verlander 6 OV -110, UN -110
Score first: CHC EV, LAD -120
Game total runs+hits+errors CHC+LAD 23, OV -110, UN -110
Most total bases (hits only): Rizzo vs Bellinger +105/-125; and same prop: Russell EV vs. Seager* -EV/-120
Bryant home run YES +350, NO -430; Turner home run YES +300, NO -360
Total K's: Quintana 5 OV -135, UN +115; Kershaw 7 OV -125, UN +105
*Line posted before Seager declared out of NLCS roster.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 14, 2017
“I've had many years that I was not so successful as a player, as it is a game of skill.” -Casey Stengel