Keeneone
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October 4th, 2017 at 8:44:36 PM permalink
2017 Major League Baseball Playoffs Discussion

I was sitting at a local book today and was checking some odds on "the board". In a matter of minutes an odds change occurred that I just did not understand. I was looking @ the First 5 Innings Run Total in the ARI/COL wild card game.

It was listed as 4 runs total
Over Even
Under -120

And then it switched to 4.5 runs total
Over +110
Under -130

Anyone know how/why this can occur (other than an error)?
Keeneone
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October 4th, 2017 at 9:17:10 PM permalink

NYY and ARI advance out of the Wildcard spots.
----------

NYY @ CLE

Game 1 - Gray vs Bauer
As a NYY fan, I am surprised Tanaka is not starting Game 1.

Game 2 - Kluber vs CC Sabathia - great matchup, ex-CLE Ace vs current CLE Ace

Cleveland is an excellent team. Do they have any weak spots? I say no. You are only going to beat them with your best performance.
monet0412
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October 4th, 2017 at 10:20:51 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Cleveland is an excellent team. Do they have any weak spots? I say no. You are only going to beat them with your best performance.



Not only that but they are so darn HOT !! They just can't seem to lose. They also got robbed last year when the Umps decided to call a rain delay when they had the Cubs on the ropes giving the Cubs a much needed rest to regroup. I think Cleveland wins last year if they play on in that slight drizzle. You would think that the Dodgers and Cleveland would meet in the World Series but since the Dodgers have been on a huge slump for the last month or so I am not sure they will make it to the dance. Anything can happen but I think Cleveland wins the Series this year.

So now that I told you my expert pick I think that anyone who has extra money should bet the Yankees to win the ALDS :)

Take your winnings from the Yankees and parlay it on the Dodgers to win it all :)
DrawingDead
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October 5th, 2017 at 1:33:35 PM permalink
Of course, Cleveland will never lose another game, at all, to anyone, ever. Starting now, dammit. But, good baseball team, bad bet, because of the price. They've been bet down to powder in the futures throughout the season, beginning with the first opening future wager odds in some books in March during Spring training, for Crissakes. And this is still baseball. So even though I believe they will never lose another game, to anyone, anywhere, forever, they will have to do so without my money. Dammit.

So, it will be Cleveland over Arizona in six. Because it must. Because my future book wager this year is on Arizona to win the National League Championship Pennant, at boxcar odds. But then, not the World Series. Because the noble indigenous tribe of Chief Wahoo will never lose another game, to anyone, ever. Certainly not to communist hosiery, or space cadets. But at the prices available now and all this year, they also can't be bet. At least not by me, at those odds, for anything in baseball. Unlike last year. Dammit.

I'm not sure I correctly understand the thread starter question, about the o/u line movement on the COL-ARI play-in game. You mean, something other than the usual reason for a line movement, with significant money on one side inducing a movement to re-balance the action? Because that would be my one and only reply to offer on that. Sorry about the late timing, if it was asked for some practical reason to do something with it at the time. Last night I was busy occupying a nosebleed seat way up near the deafening, shaking roof of Chase Field. And then joining the mob of crazed baseball ruffians* roving about on the streets of Phoenix inventing creatively obscene variations of the eternally popular "Beat LA." Use your imagination; you'll come up with about half of them. Lotsa fun, and way more entertainment value than I was looking for from my ticket. A little more dull in some late spots would've been just fine with me.

*Since this is Phoenix we're talking about, that means Phoenicians waving their official team issued rally towels in the air while chanting somewhat fiercely about defeating another team. With a cocktail glass held carefully in the other hand. I believe that qualifies as a riot in the streets by Phoenix standards.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 5, 2017
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RisingDough
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October 6th, 2017 at 9:38:18 AM permalink
That first half total opened at :

4.5 -110

action poured in on under and some places moved the juice as far as:

4.5 under -150


before finally dropping it down to:

4 -110
What is life if not a gamble?
Rigondeaux
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October 6th, 2017 at 12:29:55 PM permalink
I have no betting advice other than to look at the props for off numbers. But baseball has the best post season.

I'll predict Nats/Indians. I think people are sleeping on the Nats a bit (from fan POV, not betting). Max/Stras/Geo ain't nothing to mess with.
Keeneone
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October 6th, 2017 at 4:43:42 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
Arizona vs LA


I am looking forward to this series between division rivals. How much (or how often) will the broadcasters mention/show the "Great Pool incident" of 2013...
Cool to hear you went to the Wild Card game. When it was 6-0, I thought the game was over and changed the channel.
Using "Phoenicians" to describe Phoenix, AZ residents sounded weird to me (in a funny way, made me chuckle)...
Rigondeaux
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October 6th, 2017 at 5:05:20 PM permalink
Down 8 to 3 and lindor hits an effing grand slam, off the poll no less.

It's gonna suck being stuck with just the inferior sports.
Keeneone
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October 6th, 2017 at 5:28:44 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

Down 8 to 3 and lindor hits an effing grand slam, off the poll no less.

It's gonna suck being stuck with just the inferior sports.


The inning "should" have ended before Lindor batted. Many will question why no challenge was made by the Yanks after the "Hit by Pitch" to Chisenhall.

As DD has mentioned CLE is unstoppable by anyone/anywhere/anytime in 2017.

Baseball Fever...Catch it!

Care to expand on your second sentence?
Keeneone
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October 6th, 2017 at 8:08:25 PM permalink
Sometimes I question why I am a Yankees fan at all. I guess it is slightly better than being a Mets fan.
billryan
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October 6th, 2017 at 10:32:08 PM permalink
THESE are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Tom Paine.

Go Yankees.
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DRich
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October 7th, 2017 at 3:28:57 PM permalink
Quote: billryan



Go Yankees.



I despise political correctness so I have to root for:

At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DrawingDead
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October 7th, 2017 at 3:31:03 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>...
Using "Phoenicians" to describe Phoenix, AZ residents sounded weird to me (in a funny way, made me chuckle)...

I think they get that a lot, so I've been told. The City of Phoenix generally makes me chuckle.

I'll also be there for the Division Series game 3 when LA comes to Phoenix on Monday. Strangely, at least to me, while the Colorado game sold out in less than an hour and it was a lucky fluke that I was able to get in to get a direct sale ticket without paying way beyond face value in the secondary market on StubHub, tickets for the division series games were much easier to get, and I think there may even be some left direct from the team site. I got mine before the 'wild card' play-in game, but I thought once the location was certain a whole lot of blue clad Angelenos would be flooding in, turning PHX into an LA suburb. But they haven't. Yet, anyways.

I can't honestly expect to cash this wager at this point; I've not gotten delusional about it that way. Yet. But I feel at least temporarily a little smug just to still be live with it now, this far along with such a big longshot in the early futures prices. I've at least gotten plenty of fun for my money on this already.

The lines, last I checked this AM:

Sat-8/7
CHC +110; WAS -120
AZD +132; LAD -142

Sun-8/8
HOU -138; BOS +128
CLE -114; NYY +104

AL PENNANT
CLE 5/6
HOU 5/4
NYY 12/1
BOS 16/1

NL PENNANT
LAD 1/1
CHC 9/4
WAS 6/1
AZD 8/1

Good luck to all. But especially to me, 'cause now I need a wee bit more of it than most.
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beachbumbabs
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October 7th, 2017 at 4:44:18 PM permalink
Ok, DD. Good luck to you, and enjoy game 3.

I'm still a little weepy about the Twins playing 1 good inning. Got my hopes up, they did. But the force run was disgusting. I think PM might have dropped the management ball a bit, to let his pitcher get into that situation and then pitch wrong-handed. But I'm not knowledgeable enough about the game to make any real second-guessing call on it.

Sigh. At least they went from losing 100 last year to the playoffs this year. Much praise for the improvement.

It HAD to be the Yankees? Insufferable. Sigh.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DrawingDead
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October 7th, 2017 at 11:23:08 PM permalink
Ah well, after Arizona's pitching staff was turned to scrambled eggs in the (super entertaining) game with Colorado, in order to be competitive in this NLDS series they really needed to get super lucky in one of the games at Dodger Stadium. And didn't. They'll be double digit odds for getting even a sniff of the NL Pennant now, and should be, so I believe my wager is unofficially worthless. But I won't go telling them that, and here's hoping they can still show a crowd of Phoenicians a rollicking good time for a few hours on Monday.

So now it is possible to start feeling a slight twinge of empathy about the swift demise of your Twins. Actually, Chief Wahoo and I were pulling for them to find a way... preferably after about 37 innings.

Since Keeneone (sensibly) changed the channel on Wednesday (and I'd like to re-change the channel on my mood) here's the big moment of the later innings of that:



I'd say easily 20% or more of the fans at Chase Field show up wearing t-shirts that say "Bring in the Beard!" with an outline of Archie Bradley's distinctive face on them, and he has become enormously popular in Phoenix. As a relief pitcher. But never before for using a bat. So that was fun.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 8, 2017
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Keeneone
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October 8th, 2017 at 8:48:31 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
Since Keeneone (sensibly) changed the channel on Wednesday (and I'd like to re-change the channel on my mood) here's the big moment of the later innings of that:
-snip-


I definitely missed that gem on live tv. It was a great moment of Playoff baseball (unless you were the pitcher or a Rox fan). I think I found you in the crowd. You were the fan under the Petsmart sign wearing this shirt right?



Well the Yankees (aka the Evil Empire) will stay alive for one more game. Apparently Cleveland can be beat...if you steal home runs from them.
Another big day of games (4) slated for Monday, weather may be an issue for some games (BOS/NYC).
I actually like ARI (+110) with Greinke against Darvish. glta.
beachbumbabs
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October 8th, 2017 at 8:58:04 PM permalink
DD,

That was a great clip. All the joy of baseball, no big ego strutting. And does something never done before. And wins the game. That's pretty special.

Thanks for the empathy. Perhaps you'll prevail anyway.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
billryan
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October 8th, 2017 at 10:13:14 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Ah well, after Arizona's pitching staff was turned to scrambled eggs in the (super entertaining) game with Colorado, in order to be competitive in this NLDS series they really needed to get super lucky in one of the games at Dodger Stadium. And didn't. They'll be double digit odds for getting even a sniff of the NL Pennant now, and should be, so I believe my wager is unofficially worthless. But I won't go telling them that, and here's hoping they can still show a crowd of Phoenicians a rollicking good time for a few hours on Monday.

So now it is possible to start feeling a slight twinge of empathy about the swift demise of your Twins. Actually, Chief Wahoo and I were pulling for them to find a way... preferably after about 37 innings.

Since Keeneone (sensibly) changed the channel on Wednesday (and I'd like to re-change the channel on my mood) here's the big moment of the later innings of that:



I'd say easily 20% or more of the fans at Chase Field show up wearing t-shirts that say "Bring in the Beard!" with an outline of Archie Bradley's distinctive face on them, and he has become enormously popular in Phoenix. As a relief pitcher. But never before for using a bat. So that was fun.



In all my years of watching baseball, I can't recall a player on base going into the dugout during a pitching change.
Can anyone?
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DrawingDead
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October 8th, 2017 at 11:54:48 PM permalink
EDIT: deleted, because my recollection was wrong
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DrawingDead
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October 9th, 2017 at 6:32:38 PM permalink
Spamming the thread with random pointless noise from section 328:

The WiFi here sux eggs already even before most folks get here. But this time I won't need no stnkin' binoculars from this seat, so I'll take that trade..

They have two guys with little vacuums doing evey blade of grass in the outfield. Sheesh. Will they scrub & comb & floss it, before players start spitting on it?

ADD....
Middle 4th:Howzit even possible LA only has 1 run? Greinke looking like outta gas before leaving bullpen. 88 pitches, about half balls.

Top 5th, nuttin stiring in pen. Game plan: ritual sacrifice of furry mascot induces divine intervention.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 9, 2017
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boymimbo
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October 10th, 2017 at 9:04:48 AM permalink
Glad that Boston is out! It gave me so much joy to see Pedroia ground out for the final out of the game.

Hope the Yankees go next, but the last game is a crap shoot. There are things I like about the Yankees (the tree in right field and the rookie Catcher really are awesome, wish they were on another team).

Cubbies could finish off the Nats today. I'm rooting for the Nationals because well the Cubbies had their World Series.

I would like to see a Nationals - Astros world series. Houston's offense is just nasty. Can't say the same about Cleveland without Edwing.
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billryan
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October 10th, 2017 at 9:09:32 AM permalink
Yankees caught a huge break when Encarcion went down. He's a one man wrecking crew. It's Cy Young vs Cy Old in game 5.
Go Yankees.
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DrawingDead
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October 11th, 2017 at 1:01:03 AM permalink
Fiinal October 9th game recap & box score: fizzle, thud. By chance I happened to be at three of the last four Greinke starts of 2017, and that horse was going lame or else kidnapped & replaced by an imposter. I hope four months out to pasture does the trick. But the best (overall most complete) baseball team won. So wait till next year, or till 2022 if they end up on the hook for paying $31 million a year for an empty #1 rotation spot.

Now I have no active baseball wagers. This is morally offensive and I think probably illegal in Nevada, but I don’t see anything I want to buy at this point. Here’s the apparent consensus of current World Series futures odds that I’ve converted to the implied break-even win percentage probability (first number including vig), and the FiveThirtyEight estimate of World Series win probability (second number), and the difference between the two (#2 - #1).

LAD 31%, 27%, -4
HOU 25%, 24%, -1
CLE 20%, 23%, +3
CHC 18%, 15%, -3
NYY 11%, 7%, -4
WAS 6%, 4%, -2

As two division series are decided while the other two are unresolved, this could alternatively be viewed as: 31%/30% for the winner of the New York @Cleveland elimination game, and 24%/19% for the winner of the Washingon-Chicago series. The “overnight” of tomorrow’s individual game moneyline at Westgate:

WAS +154, CHC -164
NYY +170, CLE -185
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Keeneone
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October 11th, 2017 at 5:04:50 AM permalink
I had the game wrong, but Greinke worked hard and the result was actually not terrible. 3 earned over 5 innings was OK. Darvish was just better. Heck of a job by the ARI relievers to give them a chance with 4 scoreless to end the game. More experienced LAD move on.
Hard to watch Dusty pull Mad Max. Just leave him in and let your best win or lose the game. One hit and he is pulled? It felt
like a regular season move.

Looking forward to today’s games. Go Yanks!
Keeneone
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October 11th, 2017 at 8:47:48 PM permalink
Yankees win!

billryan
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October 11th, 2017 at 11:48:09 PM permalink
Watched the game at the sports book and then caught the second half of Billy's show at House of Blues.
I thought that he wouldn't go on until the game was over, but he started promptly at 8:15.
Four down. Eight to go.
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SM777
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October 12th, 2017 at 8:18:47 AM permalink
Should be a great game 5 tonight!
DrawingDead
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October 12th, 2017 at 9:01:37 AM permalink
Like I said, the Indians will never win another game, forever. Houston fans are probably feeling pretty good. Along with Fox Sports.

Go Gnats. Because winning stuff is not what Cubs are for; that's just so wrong. Last night Westgate had them at CHC -120/WAS +110. Looks like they've moved their line to -105/-105 this morning.
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Keeneone
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October 12th, 2017 at 11:45:30 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Eight to go.


I’am pretty happy with the Wild Card and division series win over CLE.

Quote: SM777

Should be a great game 5 tonight!


Who is even pitching for the Nat’s? Roark or Gio?
I am hoping for a high presssure, rollercoaster, slugfest in this one...
billryan
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October 12th, 2017 at 11:54:34 AM permalink
Every Yankee fan should be thrilled with the season we've gotten thus far, but I see no reason they can't go further.
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DrawingDead
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October 12th, 2017 at 1:39:59 PM permalink
Watched Baker's pre-game press conference a few minutes ago. Gonzalez announced for the start tonight, with Roark & everyone not named Strasburg in the pen.

ALCS Game 1 NYY@HOU line is running from +160/-180 to +155/-175.

World Series futures implied probability (break even pct with vig) / FiveThirtyEight's probability estimate:
LAD 33%/30%
HOU 31%/29%
NYY 26%/21%
CHC 13%/10%
WAS 13%/10%

in my opinion the probability that it will be LAD & HOU in the WS after winning their respective NL/AL pennants is higher than that, and I'm debating how to structure some wagers accordingly.

EDIT to add, postgame:

I think it might be time for people in Washington to begin whispering about The Curse of Youppi, the old Montreal Expos mascot who was jilted when that franchise rudely dumped their adoring Quebec fans, split town to head for a swamp on the Potomac, and changed their name…





So now it will be up to LA to reestablish the natural order of the universe, restoring devoted Cubs followers to their proper & customary state of misery. And incidentally to stick a fork in the Cubshype & Maddonworship industry. I think they are well equipped to get that public service done.

Before the CHC-WAS game I placed wagers on both the Dodgers & Astros to win the World Series, each of them booked at 2/1. So for that to be profitable requires > 67% expectation that one of them will win it. Yeah, that’s probably pushing my opinion right up to the edge, because this is baseball, and lotsa random stuff happens. I also have a smaller wager on the Dodgers to win the NLCS. Wagering on Houston to win the ALCS was off the board. But as a baseball fan I’m fine with any result that does not involve the unnatural & obnoxious outcome of a blue teddy bear themed outfit winning any more things & stuff.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 12, 2017
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DrawingDead
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October 12th, 2017 at 2:14:34 PM permalink
Should I assume New York sports fans will now be over booing their manager, and ready to move on to heckling the next shiny object? Dunno for sure, cuz I don't speak NaYawka. Or even Joyzee.
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Rigondeaux
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October 13th, 2017 at 12:40:49 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux



I'll predict Nats/Indians. .



Buy my MLB post season ten star package for just $499.
billryan
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October 13th, 2017 at 12:54:19 AM permalink
What a horrible way to snuff out a rally. I really hate that rule.
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Keeneone
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October 13th, 2017 at 8:06:39 AM permalink
@DD - So you really bet NYY and CHI to win it all @ 4/1 each? ;)


Quote: billryan

What a horrible way to snuff out a rally. I really hate that rule.


The replay review of the pick off @ 1st base in the eighth?


Quote: Rigondeaux

Buy my MLB post season ten star package for just $499.


Funny. A real tout would have said something like this...

Sorry everyone, I thought this thread was about 2018 MLB futures.
billryan
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October 13th, 2017 at 10:05:32 AM permalink
Yes, I can't believe the intention of the rule was so if the runner loses contact with the base for even a millisecond, that they are out.
The Encarcion play in Game One was equally bad, in my opinion
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DrawingDead
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October 13th, 2017 at 10:39:24 PM permalink
That was just fine. I like watching good fielding. Let's do it again real soon like that.

Quote: Joe Girardi

...We thought he was out, but God knows I'm not doin' THAT again.


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DrawingDead
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October 14th, 2017 at 3:38:24 PM permalink
I don't often make individual game wagers in the postseason, because I think the level of attention at this point results in a more informed betting market without cherry picking opportunities for the few remaining games. I didn't bet NYY/HOU yesterday, but I did bet both of today's games. I have a modest wager on HOU, and an even smaller one on LAD, both on the moneyline. I was most interested in the LA game, but scaled back my wager due partly to the chalky line, but even more to some peculiarities of the Dodger lineup and not getting the matchup I was hoping for. Maybe I'll get into my reasons later, if i'm not taking up too much of the virtual space in this thread. But for right now, I think I probably don't get a ticket allowing me to either gloat or whine if I didn't post about an alleged wager 'till afterward. As I make this note I'm catching up with the ALCS game on my DVR (4th inning 1-0) and they're probably in about the 7th in real time, so I can only do about a third of a chortle or snivel about that one. Both wagers are smaller than my WS wagers which assume it will not be won by the young emerging Yankees, not quite yet this year, or by another infestation of annoying little blue bears and their sodden stumbling followers.

I'm becoming more interested in the o/u run lines, but I'm not experienced at evaluating those so I'm not betting them for now.

Probably not everyone here has ready access to everything Nevada books put on the board, so here's some William Hill lines as of about half past noon today:

ALCS Gm2: NYY +122, HOU -132
NLCS Gm1 CHC +170, LAD -190

AL Pennant: NYY +235, HOU -275
NL Pennant: CHC +165, LAD -185

Here are props I have lines for. I found a couple of them intriguing, but didn't have the data available with me to feel strongly enough to bet it/them, either individually or in an arbitrage with something that should tend to be correlated. But i have some tentative opinions about some of these, and would be interested in others thoughts on them regardless of outcome today:

Score first: NYY -140, HOU +120
Game total runs+hits+errors NYY+HOU 24.5, OV -110, UN -110
Most total bases (hits only): Gregorius vs Altuve 110/-110; and same prop: Judge vs. Correa -110/-110
Bird home run YES +450, NO -600; Springer home run YES +400, NO -550
Total K's: Severino 6.5 OV -120, UN +100; Verlander 6 OV -110, UN -110

Score first: CHC EV, LAD -120
Game total runs+hits+errors CHC+LAD 23, OV -110, UN -110
Most total bases (hits only): Rizzo vs Bellinger +105/-125; and same prop: Russell EV vs. Seager* -EV/-120
Bryant home run YES +350, NO -430; Turner home run YES +300, NO -360
Total K's: Quintana 5 OV -135, UN +115; Kershaw 7 OV -125, UN +105

*Line posted before Seager declared out of NLCS roster.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 14, 2017
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Keeneone
Keeneone
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October 17th, 2017 at 9:17:43 AM permalink
Nice to see the Yanks get the win yesterday with good pitching and the longball. 2 games today. Not sure what Gray/McCullers will give us tonight.
LAD vs CHI gives us 2 righties going, Darvish/Hendricks. Each allow over a home run per 9 innings. Combined with:
http://www.windsblowingout.com/index.php
I am looking at the over 8 runs.
DrawingDead
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October 17th, 2017 at 10:58:31 AM permalink
Westgate lines: LAD +104, CHC -114; HOU +132, NYY -142. At first glance that looks about right to me; no bet here.

I really enjoyed the first two tight tough games of the ALCS, which I thought were very well played, and not necessarily because of the result. I thought it was nice to have a couple of baseball games as a break from the season long home run derby. Okay, so that interlude is probably over now.

Before last night's game the betting market was pricing both Los Angeles and Houston each at nearly 85% probability of winning their respective pennants. Though it made my WS tickets look good, I thought and continue to think that was a no touch price overdoing it on the favorites after two games in each league holding serve at home ballparks. For example William Hill had HOU at -475 after the 2nd game, which would be far too chalky to swallow especially considering the way those were won, and either or both series could easily be competitive. Beating out an infield hit, stealing a base, scratching out a run. In Houston, one outfielder fields cleanly and instantly wheels to perfectly hit the designated cutoff/relay for a crucial out at the plate by an eyelash, the other overthrows his designated cutoff resulting in a difficult relay from 2nd base when the play is at home allowing the winning run. Maybe show me a price like that -475 if it goes to 3-0 in Chicago, depending on the status of the respective pitching staffs after, otherwise getouttaherewidat.

Has Judge suddenly made the re-adjustment, as most talented but still young & developing players must do at some point, to close the exploitable hole opponents have discovered in his swing and stance in the box (breaking low & away, low & away, away, away, away) that changed him from a slugging machine to a strikeout machine in recent weeks? Or was he pitched poorly last night?

A little disappointed I probably won't get Lackey named as a starter in any of the NLCS games now. I saw a lot of him in St. Louis, and he's many very fine things, but he's not well suited to matchup specifically with the Dodger's lineup.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 17, 2017
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Keeneone
Keeneone
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October 17th, 2017 at 11:29:10 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
Or was he pitched poorly last night?


Away, Away, Away. In general I think they have done a great job in shutting him down (and extending his slump). But trying to sneak a 2-2 fastball by seemed like a poor pitch choice when Judge connected for the home run.
https://www.mlb.com/video/judges-three-run-home-run/c-1863809783?tid=94787060
DrawingDead
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October 17th, 2017 at 4:42:54 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>,,,
LAD vs CHI gives us 2 righties going, Darvish/Hendricks. Each allow over a home run per 9 innings. Combined with:
http://www.windsblowingout.com/index.php
I am looking at the over 8 runs.

[Bolded emphasis added]

I'll be interested in that as I watch. I have a 'park factor' of 1.01 (101% of MLB avg. runs per game) for just a bare scosch over average runs/game at 9.3-ish in 2017, as a raw average unadjusted for other factors. Which seems a bit odd to me given Wrigley's reputation, even though that's what the numbers are saying. But that's for the regular season, makes no allowance for opponent or pitchers, and I don't yet have any way to account for game day weather & atmospheric (air density) conditions there.

I am getting just about to the point of being able to do this with reasonable confidence at some ballparks in the west including Chase Field, Dodger Stadium, Petco Park... while still with nothing more than a wildazzguess for variable conditions at Wrigley. No bet for me, but interested in that all the same.
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DrawingDead
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October 17th, 2017 at 5:49:18 PM permalink
Aw shucks, I was ready to send Starlin Castro a box of chocolates. And a can of WD-40.
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Keeneone
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October 18th, 2017 at 12:46:01 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

-snip-
LAD vs CHI gives us 2 righties going, Darvish/Hendricks. Each allow over a home run per 9 innings. Combined with:
http://www.windsblowingout.com/index.php
I am looking at the over 8 runs.


Well I got that one wrong. 3 homers hit but all were solo shots early in the game. Combined 1-14 RISP...on to tonight.
Go Yanks.
Do Cubs fans actually want a win today or would they be satisfied with a sweep and last year's championship?
monet0412
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October 18th, 2017 at 1:11:50 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412

So now that I told you my expert pick I think that anyone who has extra money should bet the Yankees to win the ALDS :)

Take your winnings from the Yankees and parlay it on the Dodgers to win it all :)


I feel lik ZenKing and others who make mental bets and don't see any return profits 😢
billryan
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October 18th, 2017 at 2:20:50 PM permalink
I got my money in on the Yankees going all the way at 8-1 ,prior to Game 5 in Cleveland.
Only money I have on this series is a bet on a Captain America statue with a shop owner from Houston.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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October 18th, 2017 at 8:27:21 PM permalink
#PuigWantedToBeYourFriend
Quote: Keeneone

Well I got that one wrong. 3 homers hit but all were solo shots early in the game. Combined 1-14 RISP...on to tonight.
Go Yanks.
Do Cubs fans actually want a win today or would they be satisfied with a sweep and last year's championship?

In my experience, what Cubs fans mostly want is to get drunk and stay that way. And I want them to get a nice early start on that. 'Cause I'm such a thoughtful guy that way.

Quote: MLB Gameday

Justin Turner homers on a fly ball to left center field...

Yasiel Puig walks...

I think this would be an excellent time for Chicago to panic.
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Keeneone
Keeneone
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October 19th, 2017 at 9:49:52 AM permalink
Well the Cubbies survive and get at least one more game tonight.

Quote: DrawingDead

#PuigWantedToBeYourFriend-snip-


I generally like all ballplayers (mostly Cubans) with first names starting with the letter Y. Because why not!
Who was the greatest MLB player with a first name starting with Y?

It would be great to get a classic New York Yankees vs Brooklyn Los Angeles Dodgers World Series...
The Yanks will seek revenge for their last defeat at the hands of the Dodgers in 1981. "The Empire Strikes Back".
RisingDough
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October 19th, 2017 at 11:43:40 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone


Do Cubs fans actually want a win today or would they be satisfied with a sweep and last year's championship?




I'm a HUGE Cubs fan and of course I wanted a win in game 4! I'd love a comeback however unlikely it is. I actually think our season probably comes to an end tonight but you never know.
What is life if not a gamble?
DrawingDead
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October 19th, 2017 at 11:57:35 AM permalink
After being briefly drunk on an implied HOU vs. LAD lock, he futures market has now revalued the probability (more than 100% sum with vig) of winning the World Series, and the subsequent right to claim that "our Puerto Rican, Dominican, and Cuban ballplayers are better than your Puerto Rican, Dominican, and Cuban ballplayers, so there, niya, niya, niya" as follows:

Los Angeles Dodgers* 56%
New York Yankees 31%
Houston Astros 20%
Maleficent Agents of Satan 4%

The sum of my two WS tickets has diminished from the peak price of a couple days ago, but is still valued by the betting market at more than I paid for them in total, so there's that.

*I never got what they're supposed to be dodging nowadays around Echo Park between Sunset Blvd & the 110 Fwy. Seems like they'd have the Giant pretensions, or at least should represent the Immoderately Large, while that peninsula between Alcatraz and Salinas is manifestly Dodgy.
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