Keeneone
Keeneone
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September 19th, 2017 at 12:01:41 AM permalink
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/mgm-resorts-sports-book-bettor-wins-250k-on-5-team-parlay/

$8,500 on a five teamer results in ~$250,000 payout.

Wow, congrats to the winner. Hopefully it was a WOV member.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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September 19th, 2017 at 12:43:25 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/mgm-resorts-sports-book-bettor-wins-250k-on-5-team-parlay/

$8,500 on a five teamer results in ~$250,000 payout.

Wow, congrats to the winner. Hopefully it was a WOV member.


odds of picking 5 = 1 in 32?
32 x $8500 = $272k

$22k vig?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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September 19th, 2017 at 4:25:11 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

odds of picking 5 = 1 in 32?
32 x $8500 = $272k

$22k vig?




the odds you quoted assume the player is picking at random.

if he believed he had an edge or actually had an edge (which is pretty much impossible to know) then the true odds could have been much different.

after a bettor has made a few hundred picks, then looks back, and if his picks overcame the vig and put him squarely into profitability then it is reasonable to assume that he had an edge at least on those bets he made in the past.

as far as the future is concerned; it is less clear. maybe as he ages his skills deteriorate. or trends that he bases his decisions on change.

but most bettors will believe that if they have won in the past on a significant sample size, that they will win in the future.

the very best sports bettors will have many consecutive winning years.

others may be fooled by believing their past results insures future profitability.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
NokTang
NokTang
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September 19th, 2017 at 4:55:10 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

odds of picking 5 = 1 in 32?
32 x $8500 = $272k

$22k vig?



I seem to recall, I'll go look if you don't know...the parlay being on money line lines, not point spread.
Mission146
Administrator
Mission146
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September 19th, 2017 at 5:03:08 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

I seem to recall, I'll go look if you don't know...the parlay being on money line lines, not point spread.



He had four favorites covering ATS and then DET on the ML.
Vultures can't be choosers.
TomG
TomG
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September 19th, 2017 at 5:30:50 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

odds of picking 5 = 1 in 32?
32 x $8500 = $272k

$22k vig?



Based on the article it was only around 4.5% per game. About the same as most bets people make in an MGM sportsbook. You can bet two columns on a roulette wheel, risking $1 if you lose, while only getting paid 50-cents. That doesn't mean the vig is 50-cents for every dollar. It's only a small percentage of games where each team has a 50% chance of winning a football game. Think MGM would let me bet Alabama to win while only laying 6 to 5?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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September 19th, 2017 at 6:08:42 AM permalink
Is it possible to get "true odds" on a 5-team parlay at a Vegas book, as opposed to "parlay card" odds?

The only way I get 8500 turning into 250,000 is if the first four bets were all at -110, which would be 123,636. A 3-point 'dog with a money line of even sounds feasible, so that's "about 250,000."
DRich
DRich
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September 19th, 2017 at 7:05:14 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Is it possible to get "true odds" on a 5-team parlay at a Vegas book, as opposed to "parlay card" odds?

The only way I get 8500 turning into 250,000 is if the first four bets were all at -110, which would be 123,636. A 3-point 'dog with a money line of even sounds feasible, so that's "about 250,000."



No, in general parlay bets are usually high juice because the casino knows it can make money off of the people looking for a big score. A 3 point dog will usually be around +135.

In general parlays are terrible bets for players unless you find a rogue number.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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September 19th, 2017 at 7:52:34 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

No, in general parlay bets are usually high juice because the casino knows it can make money off of the people looking for a big score. A 3 point dog will usually be around +135.


Still doesn't seem to be enough - that would require the first four to pay almost 21-1. The William Hill online rules, which I assume are fairly standard (and say that a mixed spread and money line parlay is paid by calculating the spread bets as if it was on a card and then applying the money line bets separately) say they pay only 10-1 for a four-team ATS parlay. (A 5-team ATS pays 20-1.)

Then again, WH also says they have a special card where you can get better odds if you are willing to give more/take fewer points than the spread (sort of a Reverse Teaser, I assume).
DRich
DRich
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September 19th, 2017 at 8:36:49 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Still doesn't seem to be enough - that would require the first four to pay almost 21-1. The William Hill online rules, which I assume are fairly standard (and say that a mixed spread and money line parlay is paid by calculating the spread bets as if it was on a card and then applying the money line bets separately) say they pay only 10-1 for a four-team ATS parlay. (A 5-team ATS pays 20-1.)

Then again, WH also says they have a special card where you can get better odds if you are willing to give more/take fewer points than the spread (sort of a Reverse Teaser, I assume).



Try putting in the first four teams at -112 and the last game at +135. You get real close to the $250,000 payout for $8,500 bet.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

Basically his bet paid about 29/1. That makes sense for a five teamer with a 3 point or so underdog on the money line. A point spread five teamer pays about 20/1 and a six team point spread pays about 40/1. So a five teamer with a money line underdog should be somewhere between 20/1 and 40/1 depending on what the money line was on the game.

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