NFL 5 team parlay = big payday.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/mgm-resorts-sports-book-bettor-wins-250k-on-5-team-parlay/

$8,500 on a five teamer results in ~$250,000 payout.

Wow, congrats to the winner. Hopefully it was a WOV member.

Quote: Keeneone

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/mgm-resorts-sports-book-bettor-wins-250k-on-5-team-parlay/

$8,500 on a five teamer results in ~$250,000 payout.

Wow, congrats to the winner. Hopefully it was a WOV member.

odds of picking 5 = 1 in 32?
32 x $8500 = $272k

$22k vig?

Quote: 100xOdds

odds of picking 5 = 1 in 32?
32 x $8500 = $272k

$22k vig?

the odds you quoted assume the player is picking at random.

if he believed he had an edge or actually had an edge (which is pretty much impossible to know) then the true odds could have been much different.

after a bettor has made a few hundred picks, then looks back, and if his picks overcame the vig and put him squarely into profitability then it is reasonable to assume that he had an edge at least on those bets he made in the past.

as far as the future is concerned; it is less clear. maybe as he ages his skills deteriorate. or trends that he bases his decisions on change.

but most bettors will believe that if they have won in the past on a significant sample size, that they will win in the future.

the very best sports bettors will have many consecutive winning years.

others may be fooled by believing their past results insures future profitability.

Quote: 100xOdds

odds of picking 5 = 1 in 32?
32 x $8500 = $272k

$22k vig?

I seem to recall, I'll go look if you don't know...the parlay being on money line lines, not point spread.

Quote: NokTang

I seem to recall, I'll go look if you don't know...the parlay being on money line lines, not point spread.

He had four favorites covering ATS and then DET on the ML.

Quote: 100xOdds

odds of picking 5 = 1 in 32?
32 x $8500 = $272k

$22k vig?

Based on the article it was only around 4.5% per game. About the same as most bets people make in an MGM sportsbook. You can bet two columns on a roulette wheel, risking $1 if you lose, while only getting paid 50-cents. That doesn't mean the vig is 50-cents for every dollar. It's only a small percentage of games where each team has a 50% chance of winning a football game. Think MGM would let me bet Alabama to win while only laying 6 to 5?

Is it possible to get "true odds" on a 5-team parlay at a Vegas book, as opposed to "parlay card" odds?

The only way I get 8500 turning into 250,000 is if the first four bets were all at -110, which would be 123,636. A 3-point 'dog with a money line of even sounds feasible, so that's "about 250,000."

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Is it possible to get "true odds" on a 5-team parlay at a Vegas book, as opposed to "parlay card" odds?

The only way I get 8500 turning into 250,000 is if the first four bets were all at -110, which would be 123,636. A 3-point 'dog with a money line of even sounds feasible, so that's "about 250,000."

No, in general parlay bets are usually high juice because the casino knows it can make money off of the people looking for a big score. A 3 point dog will usually be around +135.

In general parlays are terrible bets for players unless you find a rogue number.

Quote: DRich

No, in general parlay bets are usually high juice because the casino knows it can make money off of the people looking for a big score. A 3 point dog will usually be around +135.

Still doesn't seem to be enough - that would require the first four to pay almost 21-1. The William Hill online rules, which I assume are fairly standard (and say that a mixed spread and money line parlay is paid by calculating the spread bets as if it was on a card and then applying the money line bets separately) say they pay only 10-1 for a four-team ATS parlay. (A 5-team ATS pays 20-1.)

Then again, WH also says they have a special card where you can get better odds if you are willing to give more/take fewer points than the spread (sort of a Reverse Teaser, I assume).

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Still doesn't seem to be enough - that would require the first four to pay almost 21-1. The William Hill online rules, which I assume are fairly standard (and say that a mixed spread and money line parlay is paid by calculating the spread bets as if it was on a card and then applying the money line bets separately) say they pay only 10-1 for a four-team ATS parlay. (A 5-team ATS pays 20-1.)

Then again, WH also says they have a special card where you can get better odds if you are willing to give more/take fewer points than the spread (sort of a Reverse Teaser, I assume).

Try putting in the first four teams at -112 and the last game at +135. You get real close to the $250,000 payout for $8,500 bet.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

Basically his bet paid about 29/1. That makes sense for a five teamer with a 3 point or so underdog on the money line. A point spread five teamer pays about 20/1 and a six team point spread pays about 40/1. So a five teamer with a money line underdog should be somewhere between 20/1 and 40/1 depending on what the money line was on the game.

Good discussion on the payout of this one. But nobody has mentioned "the elephant in the room".
Did he hedge the wager?
Should he have hedge the wager?
He is sitting on a 4 win 5 teamer with only the Monday Night game needing DET to win on the road.

Quote: Keeneone

Good discussion on the payout of this one. But nobody has mentioned "the elephant in the room".
Did he hedge the wager?
Should he have hedge the wager?
He is sitting on a 4 win 5 teamer with only the Monday Night game needing DET to win on the road.

A very good point. For the exact amounts he was betting ($8500 to win ~$250k) what would anyone else on here have done?

For that amount of money, I probably would have hedged a little. It really depends on his reasoning for his picks and how confident he was with his DET pick. Knowing what I knew on Sunday about the game (practically nothing) I probably would have put like $20,000 against DET to win like $26,000. If DET wins, you still win $230k. If DET loses, you still win $16k. Arguments could be made for more or less. I'm just assuming if I already came to the determination that I wanted to bet on DET for the parlay that I'd stick with my reasoning to go with them, and thus not hedge 50/50 either way at that point.

Quote: DRich

Try putting in the first four teams at -112 and the last game at +135.

That was part of my original point - who allows against-the-spread parlays that pay anywhere near -112 for each game?

If the bettor "manually" parlayed the bets, it would be correct, but that would not have been possible with the four games listed.

Something is missing from the story.

The article said he was already in a free roll from a 30k win betting 5k. Why hedge at that point?

Quote: beachbumbabs

The article said he was already in a free roll from a 30k win betting 5k. Why hedge at that point?

Sure he always has plenty of action going at all times. The author of the story probably has no idea about the life of a professional gambler. And someone betting this kind of money probably is.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

That was part of my original point - who allows against-the-spread parlays that pay anywhere near -112 for each game?

That would be every sportsbook in Nevada and virtually everyone in the world

Quote: Boz

Sure he always has plenty of action going at all times. The author of the story probably has no idea about the life of a professional gambler. And someone betting this kind of money probably is.

Didn't get close enough to the best odds to be a likely pro. Story was written as if the tip came from the sportsbook. They want to advertise the recreational bettors who get lucky, not the pros who beat them. Every strip casino has tourists betting commensurate amount on tables or machines at any given time.

Sportsline lists teams that are 3 point favorites this week at -150 on the money line, so 11-1 for a 4-team ATS and +145 on the money line would do it.

Didn't think the money line would be that high for a 3-point spread.

Quote: beachbumbabs

The article said he was already in a free roll from a 30k win betting 5k. Why hedge at that point?

Locking in a $100,000. win has a certain appeal to almost everyone I assume. It has a nice ring to it. Tax free I assume as well.....

Quote: Mission146

He had four favorites covering ATS and then DET on the ML.

He/she? must have known something about the Detroit game. Thanks for your reply. I wasn't even aware you could mix and mash point spreads and money lines on a parlay wager. Times have changed. Cheers and good luck.

Did MGM take out any tax or issue anything to the winner?

They shouldn't have taken out any tax because it's not a taxable hit (about 29.4:1).


I doubt this is the first $5k+ bet this person made on a parlay.

Quote: NokTang

Locking in a $100,000. win has a certain appeal to almost everyone I assume. It has a nice ring to it. Tax free I assume as well.....

If you're gonna put a 5 team parlay in risking 8500 to win 250k, and then hedge on the last game to guarantee 100k profit either way after you won the first 4 , then why not just put it in as a 4 team parlay to begin with where your risking that 8500 to win about 100,000 . (4 team parlay pays 12-1 if all four are -110 vig bets). By including the 5th game you're simply forcing yourself to come up with the 100k in cash to go hedge with on Monday afternoon.

Secondly, a true sports handicapper only bets when he feels he has an edge. If he liked Detroit for some reasons to begin with , then why put any bet on the Giants at all , whether it's a hedge or not. You have to look at the hedge bet as it's own separate entity and say would I bet this if I had nothing else pending.

The only times a hedge would be called for here is 1) if the 8500 he risked was literally the last 8500 he had.
Or 2) if something fundamentally changed with the last game. Like a lions key player was ruled out with an injury that changes your pick on the game

The odds might pay better on a 5 team parlay.
---------------------------------------------------------
I say hedge if you can make more on the 100k that you are giving up.

Hedging should never ever be part of your game plan, unless somehow betting more legs or a higher amount gives you a better advantage, or some other extreme circumstance. For example, if something is f***ed up and you're getting a super massive advantage to the point where your hedge bet's -EV has little effect on the overall play.


If your game plan is to hedge the last leg of a parlay then you need to calculate how likely you are to get to that point. For this, you'd need to calculate the probability of winning the first 4/5 games. Then determine your -EV from the hedge bet you'd be putting in multiplied by the likelihood of needing to put it in (winning first 4/5 legs). Then subtract your lost EV amount by the overall EV of the parlay (before game #1 starts, not after game #4 ends).


If you have 5 legs that are all even money on one side and -120 on the other and you bet a 5-team parlay all at EV, you get a $100 bet paying back $100*2^5 = $3,200. The AP thinks each team has a 55% chance to win (47.82% is no-vig probability). So he should win the bet 0.55^5 of the time or 5.03%. We'll just say 5% to keep math easy. And that's a very healthy advantage (extremely unrealistic, IMO). Break even would be 0.5^5 or 3.125% win rate.

In order to hedge, he's going to make the bet if the first 4 teams wins which will happen with probability 0.55^4 or 9.15%. He's going to lay $1500 to win $1,250 at -120 odds, assuming odds don't change. If you expect that team to win 45% of the time (since your other side you predict is 55%), then you've got a huge disadvantage on that game. He's giving up 17.5% on that $1500 or $262 in value.

He only gives up $262 in value 9.15% of the time. So the average value he loses on that bet is 262*0.0915 = -$24 (that's $24 per $100 parlay, or $262 per hedge). That is absolutely massive given his original $100 bet.

With the original bet, expecting to win 5% of the time and getting paid 31:1, you have an EV of 60% or $60.

Overall your advantage on the initial bet would go down from $60 to $36. Given this example isn't all that realistic (60% edge, lol?), and I probably should have thought through the numbers better, you can hopefully see in any regular situation, that big but rare -EV bet is going to eat up most, if not all or more than all, of your original +EV.



Don't try to lock in profit a because you're more than likely just locking up -EV overall.

Quote: Keeneone

Good discussion on the payout of this one. But nobody has mentioned "the elephant in the room".
Did he hedge the wager?
Should he have hedge the wager?
He is sitting on a 4 win 5 teamer with only the Monday Night game needing DET to win on the road.

Well it comes down to this....Monday night he needs Detroit to win the game and he will either lose $8500 or win $250,000! So in actuality right now he is getting Detroit at almost 30-1. Now on a forum such as this if I offered up Detroit at 30-1 when the market price is clearly +150 I think many of you would plunk down even more than $8500 LOL.

Obviously it comes down to your life bankroll. If $8500 is a sizable portion of your life roll then you probably should hedge. If it is meaningless then you should be wanting to have at much at risk as possible in this super +EV situation. (PS if $8500 is a sizable portion of your life roll then you shouldn't have been betting it in the first place!)

Quote: speedycrap

Did MGM take out any tax or issue anything to the winner?

Since the win was > $10,000, I am assuming something had to be reported for RICO purposes.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Since the win was > $10,000, I am assuming something had to be reported for RICO purposes.

A CTR would be issued if he took it in cash. Many pros would have taken it in casino chips to avoid a CTR.

Here are the possible results/outcomes I see after the first 4 games win:

1) Giants win = $0. (And a great bad beat/just missed story)
2) Lions win = $250k win.
3) Game ends a tie = ~$100k (varies on actual odds at time of wager)
(10 minute OT in regular season for 2017)
4) Hedge by betting Giants money line (~ -150?) = $?? (varies depending on how much one wants to/can hedge)

I still like #4 best. Hedge a "little" (as Romes mentioned).

Is there a good analogy for this situation?
2 possible examples I can think of are dumping a winning VP hand for a jackpot draw or maybe a game show like Who wants to be a millionaire?

RS nailed it.

Barring some peculiar circumstances, if you often hedge, just bet smaller amounts to begin with instead of giving the bookies a refund and chopping your ev.

Sometimes if you look around you can find a bet that is pretty close to neutral ev and it's not that bad.

It was really funny listening to the touts talk about this one on the radio. All of them would hedge. No real reasons given. They even seemed to believe you'd just hedge at the same book.

RS nailed it.

Barring some peculiar circumstances, if you often hedge, just bet smaller amounts to begin with instead of giving the bookies a refund and chopping your ev.

Sometimes if you look around you can find a bet that is pretty close to neutral ev and it's not that bad.

It was really funny listening to the touts talk about this one on the radio. All of them would hedge. No real reasons given. They even seemed to believe you'd just hedge at the same book.

At almost any level of a "professional" gambler, the thought of locking in on a $100,000.+- win has to have it's appeal. You would not go through at the math ahead of time. It would be an opportunity presenting itself at the time i.e. Monday morning.

I think at least, I read some place that the winner took his winnings in casino chips avoiding the "tax" implications. I'm sure a high roller even in a sports book has these options available to him/her. It's the slot winners who get jerked around on the tax issue and forms etc.. If you, the casino/book, jerked players who bet this kind of money on parlays(or straight bets) around, they'd find another very willing and able establishment.

Quote: Rigondeaux

RS nailed it...

Even though I said hedge a little, in terms of AP sports betting I agree with RS. I'm just not a very big sports better, especially NFL. So I was just taking my perspective of if I got lucky enough I suppose. If you're an AP, RS gave a great reason why you're giving up a ton of EV to hedge.

Quote: NokTang

At almost any level of a "professional" gambler, the thought of locking in on a $100,000.+- win has to have it's appeal. You would not go through at the math ahead of time. It would be an opportunity presenting itself at the time i.e. Monday morning...

The Wizard does say... never hedge, unless it's a life changing amount of money! $100k might not let any of us retire, but that sums up a years worth of work to some people, in one bet, so yes, i could see them hedging to win at least $100k.

Winning a 29:1 bet is certainly not going to be a life changing or a significant amount (unless you're a degenerate and bet all your money or something).

Now if you're getting big odds on your bet like 500:1, 1000:1, etc. then my intuition says hedging may not be too bad as long as you have a sufficient advantage (5%+?) on the original parlay. I believe the longer odds the not-so-bad it is to hedge (ie: it should be immediately obvious that hedging a two-teamer would be devastatingly bad, due to frequency of the hedge being applied).

Hedge = House edge

Quote: RS

Winning a 29:1 bet is certainly not going to be a life changing or a significant amount (unless you're a degenerate and bet all your money or something).

Now if you're getting big odds on your bet like 500:1, 1000:1, etc. then my intuition says hedging may not be too bad as long as you have a sufficient advantage (5%+?) on the original parlay. I believe the longer odds the not-so-bad it is to hedge (ie: it should be immediately obvious that hedging a two-teamer would be devastatingly bad, due to frequency of the hedge being applied).

Hedge = House edge

I remember exactly that I think it was last year, a bettor down in Laughlin had one of those I think ten team parlay, perhaps with the spread, on something like a $5.USD wager. The casino allowed him to hedge using the actual ticket as the money as he/she couldn't afford to do it with cash. The number $100,000.USD is in my head but I'm not sure...One of those promotional parlays....

Good thing I never have to worry about this problem on my 8 teamer half points as the first game usually loses

Quote: NokTang

I remember exactly that I think it was last year, a bettor down in Laughlin had one of those I think ten team parlay, perhaps with the spread, on something like a $5.USD wager. The casino allowed him to hedge using the actual ticket as the money as he/she couldn't afford to do it with cash. The number $100,000.USD is in my head but I'm not sure...One of those promotional parlays....

Smart move by the casino to increase their EV while reducing their exposure.

Quote: DRich

Smart move by the casino to increase their EV while reducing their exposure.

Until they realize they got middled and gotta pay off even more!

Quote: NokTang

He/she? must have known something about the Detroit game. Thanks for your reply. I wasn't even aware you could mix and mash point spreads and money lines on a parlay wager. Times have changed. Cheers and good luck.

You're welcome, you can do that as long as it's just a regular parlay card and not have a half point one, or something.

Quote: djatc

Good thing I never have to worry about this problem on my 8 teamer half points as the first game usually loses

Funny. Best to just lose a ticket early on and never worry about middles or hedges.
----------


I still feel like this bet (parlay) evolved over time (as each game resulted in a win). On the final game, the bettor was no longer just wagering $8,500 on the Lions to win, but was wagering ~$100k on the Lions to win.

If you hedge, or if you are even considering hedging, then you have to ask yourself then why in the world did you put that last, late game on the card in the first place. Arrgh! You should have just left it off completely!

If the last, late game was left off the card, the four-team parlay (in this example) would already be a winner... you'd now already have your "guaranteed" money... and you could still bet all of it, or a portion of it, on this late game, if desired.

Hedging comes at a price and it's you that has to pay that price. This is why you should never hedge, if you want to maximize your long-term profits. (If the game situation has changed... the quarterback got hit by a bus on the way to the game for example, that's different.)

If you find yourself in a POSITION to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error.

Quote: EdCollins

If you find yourself in a POSITION to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error.

Hi. What does that mean? Many a bettor takes a parlay with one team this time, next at the next time, .... last being like the discussion, a Monday night game. It's actually sort of fun at least for the recreational player.

Quote: NokTang

Hi. What does that mean? Many a bettor takes a parlay with one team this time, next at the next time, .... last being like the discussion, a Monday night game. It's actually sort of fun at least for the recreational player.

Yes, it might be common and "fun" for the recreational player, but the recreational better often has no clue about gaining an edge, betting "smart," etc.

You can usually make more money by parlaying the money yourself. Leave that late game OFF the parlay entirely. If your earlier teams win, then you bet all of your winnings (and original stake) on the late game.

I'll give a simple example. There are many sportsbooks in Vegas that offer parlay cards. A 3-team parlay usually pays 6 to 1 and a 4-team parlay often pays 10 to 1. (Some of the more generous books offer 11 to 1 for a 4-team parlay. Some even offer 12 to 1. Note that if your card says 12 FOR 1 that's not the same as 12 TO 1.)

Let's assume you like four games. Three of them are on Sunday and one of them happens to be a game played the next day, on Monday night. Rather than play a 4-team parlay, just play a 3 parlay with the Sunday games. If all of your teams on Sunday win, you can then take all of your winnings and put it on the Monday night game. If the Monday night game is also a winner for you, the end result is you will win more money this way, at no additional risk, than if you had just played the 4-team parlay.

Example:

Bet $100 on a 3-team parlay at 6 to 1 odds. You win $600. You now have $700. Bet it all at 11 to 10 odds on the Monday night game. If you win you now have $1,336.36. ($700 bet x .90909 = a win of $636.36 plus your original bet, for a total you now have of $1,336.36.)

But if you had bet the $100 on the 4-team parlay, you'd now have a total of just $1,100 at 10 to 1 odds (you won $1,000 plus your $100) or just $1,200 at the more generous 11 to 1 odds. Even if you found a card with the very generous 12 to 1 odds, you'd STILL have less money. ($36 dollars less, in this example.)

Either way, you made less by not parlaying the money yourself.

You also didn't have to worry about hedging. After winning on Sunday, you could now put all or nothing of this on the Monday game and not have to "bet against" yourself just to "guarantee" yourself a short term "weekend" profit.

Not only should you never hedge (if you are looking to maximize your long-term profit), you should never put yourself in a position to hedge. Doing so is a fundamental error. There's an epic, epic thread at another forum devoted to NFL handicapping in which this theme is discussed for dozens and dozens of pages.

Quote: EdCollins

You can usually make more money by parlaying the money yourself. Leave that late game OFF the parlay entirely. If your earlier teams win, then you bet all of your winnings (and original stake) on the late game.

The examples you give are actually in the minority of examples off-the-board. As you noted, three teams parlays pay even better than simply betting each game at -110. And anything other than -110 pays mathematical odds no matter what (and you have the advantage of finding correlations). The parlay cards you mention have the advantage of getting extra points than off the board.

I like the phrase Hedge = House Edge. Which means you can cut and should reduce variance by buying off. Lots of sports bets can be made without a house edge -- many times even with a players edge. Lots of times I've had a lot riding on a Monday night game and end up betting the other side. But sometimes I end up putting even more on the side I'm already on, because that's where I find the best number. When looking at $250,000 taking the best number on the opposite side doesn't have to mean giving up a house edge. In the Lions-Giants game the odds were bouncing around Monday based on the likelihood of Odell Beckham playing. Betting the best available at any given time was rarely giving up anything to a house edge.

Earning money really comes down to the very basic:
1) Make good bets.
2) Don't over-bet.
3) Buy off when over exposed and only if one and two also apply

Quote: EdCollins

If you hedge, or if you are even considering hedging, then you have to ask yourself then why in the world did you put that last, late game on the card in the first place. Arrgh! You should have just left it off completely!
.

If you like the side it makes more sense to just bet a smaller amount than to remove that leg.

The amount alone suggests to me the guy is a degen. He'd have to have an 8 figure roll otherwise. A) it's not easy to get that much money. B) if you are any kind of a life ap you will find something better to do with many millions of dollars and a short amount of time than looking at betting lines for 10 hours a day.