I'm not sure what impression you have of my posts. Is there anything to police? Maybe you should take a poll to see if I'm hurting this thread (in some way)?
Would you prefer less post traffic? I post here since I'm here reading Steel's picks daily. Actually some great idea exchange has happened online and off (with other players) well beyond what you see in the thread.
I appreciate keeping this board civil and I also appreciate the discussion. bazooooka, just one thought for you. You would do well by everyone if you would post these picks that you want to me to track on your own. You're welcome to do so here. I allocate a limited amount of time to this stuff. Typically in the mornings and I do not wish to turn it into a full time job by updating throughout the day.
Mariners -100
White Sox 100
Red Sox -1610
Mets -100
Brewers 129
Rockies 700
Athletics 700
Royals 119
Yesterday's results: -62
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +48
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -910
YTD Total -28,352
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,038
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,544
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,401
Today's Picks:
Pirates 105
Orioles 113
Blue Jays -155 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers -150 DogFlips 7X's
Nationals -153 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins 100
Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
Brewers -163 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox 101
Astros -111 Focus 7X's
Indians -150 DogFlips 7X's
Giants 101
Yankees -140 DogFlips 7X's
Royals 110
Astros -111
????
Quote: bazooookaA few have taken the time to read my posts and backtested what I've said.
I would be very interested in seeing the methods and results.
I just went through every time steel bet a favorite for $700 and checked what the results would have been if it was at -1.5 instead of the moneyline, using Pinnaclesports closing lines. The result would have been -$15,491. This is a better result than betting the game lines only because less money was bet overall. The return on investment was very close (less than 1%, -16%, compared to -15%); 23% of winners turned into losers
Finding closing lines (or any lines) on alternate run lines takes a lot more digging, but sometime later this week I'll look through William Hill lines to back test the results of all the $700 underdogs bet and see how they would have done against -1.5 lines. Again, if you could share the methods and the results you got, it would be helpful
Quote: RSRed Sox 101
Astros -111
Since the Astros are a x7, one would think that is the one he would go with. Then again, how did both appear?
Quote: RSRed Sox 101
Astros -111
????
Sorry RS. Was running out for an early morning meeting and screwed up.
Picks should be:
Blue Jays DogFlips 7X's
Tigers DogFlips 7X's
Nationals DogFlips 7X's
Marlins
Mariners DogFlips 7X's
Brewers DogFlips 7X's
Astros Focus 7X's
Indians DogFlips 7X's
Giants
Yankees DogFlips 7X's
Royals
**You will be Happy what the "alt" line shows you. I hope you post for the rest of us.
NOTE: As for recent picks, Steel has switched his picks but not his algo (ie he plays the "Dog Flips").
I suspect that these should be tracked from Summer or from mid July; but if you want to start from when Steel flipped them that works. I'm not a huge fan and I still am playing the dogs. I have less faith in big chalk picks and typically easy pickins in MLB is gone come Summer.
In my own system I was play the dog side of the dog flips and will likely taper these off by month end.
****But if I were to switch to a chalk player then I'd switch to "runline" on anything past -135
*To me a good box is when there are high team totals and O/U lines. But a lot of work with small limits though.
An algo that can pick dog winners is my preferred way to play (Steel's does/did).
And, if you get +200 dogs, they only need to hit 1/3rd the time. If/when I don't like the +200 dog then sidelines (or runline) is my play. ***Most people don't play the alts since they don't like losing 60%-70% of the time; I don't mind since they makes $$$ (and that's the point of this game).
Pirates -100
Orioles -100
Blue Jays -1085
Tigers 700
Nationals 700
Marlins 100
Mariners -980
Brewers 700
Astros -777
Indians 700
Giants -100
Yankees -980
Royals 110
Yesterday's results: -1,112
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -90
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -777
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -245
YTD Total -29,464
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,128
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -15,321
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,646
Blue Jays -240 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 126
Rockies -170 DogFlips 7X's
Athletics 115 Focus 7X's
Phillies 110
Cardinals 100
Reds 142 Focus 7X's
Nationals -150 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers -103
Mariners 110
Angels -130 Focus 7X's
Astros -112 Focus 7X's
6913 CHC 1½ RL +1½-265
8:15 PM 6914 PIT 1½ RL -1½+225
Jun 17 6925 BOS 1½ RL -1½+165
8:15 PM 6926 HOU 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 17 6927 KAN 1½ RL -1½+200
8:15 PM 6928 LAA 1½ RL +1½-230
Jun 17 6931 CLE 1½ RL G2 +1½-250
8:10 PM 6932 MIN 1½ RL G2 -1½+210
Blue Jays -1680
Twins -100
Rockies 700
Athletics 805
Phillies -100
Cardinals -100
Reds -700
Nationals 700
Tigers -103
Mariners -100
Angels 700
Astros 700
Yesterday's results: +722
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -503
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,505
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -280
YTD Total -28,742
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,631
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -13,816
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,926
Blue Jays -180 Focus 7X's
Nationals 125
Dodgers -167 DogFlips 7X's
Orioles 101
Marlins 100 Focus 7X's
Twins 125
Rangers -200 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies -155 DogFlips 7X's
Angels -105 Focus 7X's
Athletics -105 Focus 7X's
Red Sox 105
Blue Jays 700
Nationals -100
Dodgers 700
Orioles 101
Marlins -700
Twins -100
Rangers -1400
Rockies 700
Angels -735
Athletics 700
Red Sox 105
Yesterday's results: -29
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +6
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -35
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips 0
YTD Total -28,771
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,625
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -13,851
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,926
Indians -151 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins -102
Reds 126 Focus 7X's
Pirates -120 Focus 7X's
Rangers 110
Cubs -210 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox 100 Focus 7X's
Athletics 123 Focus 7X's
Mariners -141 DogFlips 7X's
Indians +700
Marlins +100
Reds +700
Pirates +700
Rangers -100
Cubs +700
Red Sox -700
Athletics -700
Mariners +700
Yesterday's results: +2,100
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +2,100
YTD Total -26,671
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,625
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -13,851
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,826
Cardinals -150 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -140 DogFlips 7X's
Rays -145 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins 105
Giants 101
Pirates 105
Red Sox -180 DogFlips 7X's
Diamondbacks 100 Focus 7X's
Astros -101
Dodgers -200 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers 125
Cardinals +700
Indians -980
Rays +700
Marlins -100
Giants +101
Pirates +105
Red Sox +700
Diamondbacks -700
Astros +100
Dodgers +700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: +1,226
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +106
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +1,820
YTD Total -25,445
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,519
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -6,006
Today's Picks:
Nationals -155 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox -140 DogFlips 7X's
Yankees -200 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -160 DogFlips 7X's
Twins -190 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies -150 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
Nationals -155 DogFlips 7X's
Reds 128
Red Sox -140 DogFlips 7X's
Yankees -200 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -160 DogFlips 7X's
Pirates 114
Twins -190 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies -150 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
Yesterday's Results:
Nationals -1085
Reds -100
Red Sox -980
Yankees +700
Indians +700
Pirates -100
Twins +700
Rockies -1050
Dodgers +700
Mariners +700
Yesterday's results: +185
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -200
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +385
YTD Total -25,260
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,719
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -5,621
Cardinals -145 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 110
Rangers 125
Pirates 105
Diamondbacks 100
Athletics 120 Focus 7X's
Orioles 115 Focus 7X's
Yankees -250 DogFlips 7X's
Mets 184 Focus 7X's
Tigers 104
The algo picks "dogs". Don't flip them just play them as "alts". You would have been up HUGE ytd. and some dog players are indeed based on posts I've seen.
Alts make money if you hit them around 35% I'm waiting for someone to go through you picks and prove me wrong. But I know what the account balance says.
Quote: steeldcoToday's Picks:
Cardinals -145 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 110
Rangers 125
Pirates 105
Diamondbacks 100
Athletics 120 Focus 7X's
Orioles 115 Focus 7X's
Yankees -250 DogFlips 7X's
Mets 184 Focus 7X's
Tigers 104
Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals -1015
Twins -100
Rangers +125
Pirates -100
Diamondbacks +100
Athletics -700
Orioles -700
Yankees -1750
Mets -700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: -4,940
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -2,100
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -2,765
YTD Total -25,260
+130dogs 491
Other dogs -1,719
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -5,621
Quote: steeldcoI'll have to look to be sure, but it seems like the Yankees have killed me so far this year.............rotten friggin' day nonetheless.
Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals -1015
Twins -100
Rangers +125
Pirates -100
Diamondbacks +100
Athletics -700
Orioles -700
Yankees -1750
Mets -700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: -4,940
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -2,100
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -2,765
YTD Total -25,260
+130dogs 491
Other dogs -1,719
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -5,621
I don't think the YTD totals were adjusted for last nights action
Quote: michael99000I don't think the YTD totals were adjusted for last nights action
Thanks Michael.......I guess that I'm too pissed to see straight...
Revised Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals -1015
Twins -100
Rangers +125
Pirates -100
Diamondbacks +100
Athletics -700
Orioles -700
Yankees -1750
Mets -700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: -4,940
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -75
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -2,100
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -2,765
YTD Total -30,200
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,794
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,651
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,386
Today's Picks:
Rangers 108
Indians -180 DogFlips
Red Sox -170 DogFlips
Rays -190 DogFlips
Marlins 113
Braves -104
White Sox -102
Blue Jays -140 DogFlips
Astros 110
Padres 105
Mets 115
Lately they have posting earlier. Normally by 10am PST. You might want to consider all the ones at +235 or more. If you can hit 3 out of 10 (or better) you will PROFIT. If your "dog" algo already likes the matchup then it will like the "alt" since 1 run margins are near random and only have affected around 15% of my plays. Could be the rabbit ball this year. Heck; I take a look at all "alts" above +180 which correlates highly with your +130 dogs.
**Rockies today at +320 looks like a good punt. Hit these types 1 out of 4 and still make good profit. Rockies are solid team and their pitcher, arguably, has a better career than Dodger's Wood to date. Sure Wood is 7-0 but never was an ace before thus I'll fade Wood today since the line is inflated. Lines reflects the recent rather than the normalized. Yes,dodgers likely will win today but really it'd be closer to 65/35 if this matchup was played 100 times. Make these types of "alt" bets 100 times and you will hit enough to overcome the vig. Think long term.
Jun 23 6901 CIN 1½ RL -1½+345
7:05 PM 6902 WAS 1½ RL +1½-445
Jun 23 6903 CHC 1½ RL +1½-245
7:10 PM 6904 MIA 1½ RL -1½+195
Jun 23 6905 MIL 1½ RL +1½-220
7:35 PM 6906 ATL 1½ RL -1½+170
Jun 23 6907 PIT 1½ RL -1½+165
8:15 PM 6908 STL 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 23 6909 PHI 1½ RL -1½+265
9:40 PM 6910 ARI 1½ RL +1½-335
Jun 23 6911 COL 1½ RL -1½+320
10:10 PM 6912 LAD 1½ RL +1½-420
Jun 23 6913 NYM 1½ RL -1½+170
10:15 PM 6914 SFO 1½ RL +1½-220
Jun 23 6915 TEX 1½ RL -1½+160
7:05 PM 6916 NYY 1½ RL +1½-200
Jun 23 6917 BAL 1½ RL -1½+270
7:10 PM 6918 TAM 1½ RL +1½-350
Jun 23 6919 LAA 1½ RL -1½+220
7:10 PM 6920 BOS 1½ RL +1½-280
Jun 23 6921 MIN 1½ RL -1½+240
7:10 PM 6922 CLE 1½ RL +1½-300
Jun 23 6923 OAK 1½ RL +1½-210
8:10 PM 6924 CWS 1½ RL -1½+165
Jun 23 6925 TOR 1½ RL +1½-290
8:15 PM 6926 KAN 1½ RL -1½+230
Jun 23 6927 HOU 1½ RL -1½+165
10:10 PM 6928 SEA 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 23 6929 DET 1½ RL +1½-250
10:10 PM 6930 SDG 1½ RL -1½+200
Quote: steeldcoI am crying uncle and limiting my future 7x's, or more (thinking about it), on the +130dogs only.
Today's Picks:
Rangers 108
Indians -180 DogFlips
Red Sox -170 DogFlips
Rays -190 DogFlips
Marlins 113
Braves -104
White Sox -102
Blue Jays -140 DogFlips
Astros 110
Padres 105
Mets 115
Rangers -100
Indians -180
Red Sox +100
Rays +100
Marlins +100
Braves +100
White Sox -102
Blue Jays -140
Astros -100
Padres +105
Mets +115
Yesterday's results: -2
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +118
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -120
YTD Total -30,202
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,676
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,651
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,506
Quote: RSNot to put vinegar in the wound, as they say....but what would have happened if you had continued betting the 130 dogs instead of the dogflips? (I'm assuming dogflips are opposite of 130 dogs?) Have you or someone else been keeping the records on that?
RS, not having flipped the +130dogs would have produced a gain of +6,776. All of the gains, and consequently all of the losses on the dogflips, occurred during the first 5 days after having made the change. Since the flips have been OK in the past, I would think that I need to better refine the date on which I make the change to dogflips. Just a continual learning process in addition to sheer stupidity on my part in playing the dogflips at 7X's.
Royals -102 Focus
Nationals -155 DogFlips
Twins 210 Focus
Brewers -104
Rays -153 DogFlips
Mets -102
Red Sox -175 DogFlips
Astros -150 DogFlips
Diamondbacks -210 DogFlips
Royals +100
Nationals +100
Twins +210
Brewers -104
Rays -153
Mets +100
Red Sox +100
Astros +100
Diamondbacks +100
Yesterday's results: 553
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -4
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +310
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +247
YTD Total -29,649
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,680
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,341
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,259
Twins 142 Focus
Rays -154 DogFlips
Marlins 111
Nationals -142 DogFlips
White Sox 116
Royals 100 Focus
Diamondbacks -200 DogFlips
Padres 100 Focus
Twins +142
Rays -154
Marlins +111
Nationals -142
White Sox -100
Royals -100
Diamondbacks +100
Padres -100
Yesterday's results: -243
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +11
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -58
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -196
YTD Total -29,892
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,399
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,455
Cardinals -150 DogFlips
Red Sox -205 DogFlips
White Sox 140 FocusFlips
Dodgers -210 DogFlips
>>
Jun 26 6951 PHI 1½ RL -1½+325
3:40 PM 6952 ARI 1½ RL +1½-425
Jun 26 6953 CHC 1½ RL -1½+195
7:05 PM 6954 WAS 1½ RL +1½-245
Jun 26 6955 COL 1½ RL
10:05 PM 6956 SFO 1½ RL
Jun 26 6957 TEX 1½ RL -1½+230
7:10 PM 6958 CLE 1½ RL +1½-290
Jun 26 6959 MIN 1½ RL -1½+300
7:10 PM 6960 BOS 1½ RL +1½-400
Jun 26 6961 NYY 1½ RL +1½-325
8:10 PM 6962 CWS 1½ RL -1½+255
Jun 26 6963 LAA 1½ RL -1½+285
10:10 PM 6964 LAD 1½ RL +1½-365
Jun 26 6965 CIN 1½ RL -1½+215
4:15 PM 6966 STL 1½ RL +1½-270
Quote: steeldcoToday's Orders:
Cardinals -150 DogFlips
Red Sox -205 DogFlips
White Sox 140FocusFlips
Dodgers -210DogFlips
Where you will need to hit all 3 to make money if your betting +200 chalk since one loss and your $200 in the hole. 2 losses and your really up the creek. Much easier to aim for 30% or higher and picks your spots with the alts.
We all should hope that your +130 algo has year round value. If it does than you can always play it straight or with alts as the Summer progresses.
I feel like you have something in those algo dog picks. It's made me, and a few, a ton so far. =)
**THOSE who NEED to play chalk then the runline is the better call this year of the "rabbit ball". With runline plays you only need to be right about 50% on the heavy favs. Still you will always get better odds on dogs as squares love the favs.
Quote: steeldcobazooooka, I wish I can say that I wish you luck, but I can't do it since it negatively impacts me.
Cardinals +100
Red Sox +100
White Sox -100
Dodgers -210
Yesterday's results: -110
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips -100
DogFlips -10
YTD Total -30,002
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,399
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,465
Rays -102
Marlins -150 DogFlips
Red Sox -200 DogFlips
Tigers -170 DogFlips
Brewers 117
Astros -167 DogFlips
Cardinals -120 Focus
Dodgers -220 DogFlips
Rays +100
Marlins +100
Red Sox +100
Tigers +100
Brewers -100
Astros -167
Cardinals -120
Dodgers +100
Yesterday's results: +113
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -120
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +233
YTD Total -29,889
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,519
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,232
Giants -102
Nationals -170 DogFlips
Mets 105
Royals 125
Astros -180 DogFlips
White Sox 115
Cardinals 126 Focus
Quote: steeldcoToday's Picks:
Giants -102
Nationals -170 DogFlips
Mets 105
Royals 125
Astros -180 DogFlips
White Sox 115
Cardinals 126 Focus
Nice day Steel!