JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 11th, 2017 at 11:15:58 PM permalink
I finished the calculations for the ATS results over the past two years. I analyzed and extrapolated the data, trying to find a correlation between my system picks and Vegas oddsmaker data. I currently pull oddsmaker data from every Vegas and every offshore book for every week of seasonal play. The goal is not to prove or disprove anything. The overall goal is to find an edge within the results that provides inherent value.

I personally did not do well last year. During previous years, I focused on ML values and was doing fine. However, the last two years I've been trying to shift to an ATS only format as the return value is greater. The results below show a great deal of promise for 2017. The data below is accurate.

In the topmost case, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between -31 and -37.5 and it was a also a system favorite on my site, picking the opponent to cover produced a 73.33% winning pct.

In the second and third cases, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between the ranges posted above and it was also a system favorite on my site, picking the favorite to cover produced 72.38% and 78.31% respectively. The majority of games were posted in the -1 to -9.5 bracket.

In the final case, if the spread was an oddsmaker underdog between +24 and +35 and the underdog was considered a system favorite on my site (contradicting the oddsmaker), picking the underdog to cover produced a 77.78% result.

The overall number of games for the past two years that fit the criteria was 548 games. 412 won, 125 lost, 11 pushed. The overall winpct was 76.72%. If using a \$100 game wager per game as a flat bet per game, discounting the pushes (since no money would be won or lost), \$53,700 would have been wagered. The total gains would be \$37,080 and the total losses would be \$12,500. The net gains would be \$24,580.

The goal this year is to use a similar wagering structure and ATS criteria. However, I'm still working through all of the losses to find any correlating trends that worked against the system. My goal is to produce a 3-5% additive value to the current results.

The ATS calculations for all other markers showed little to no promise as providing an edge when comparing them against both systems. Therefore, those ATS markers are not posted.

These are for College Only. I'll post the NFL results by next weekend.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
lilredrooster
• Posts: 6807
Joined: May 8, 2015
March 12th, 2017 at 4:18:17 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

The overall number of games for the past TWO YEARS that fit the criteria was 548 games. 412 won, 125 lost, 11 pushed. The overall winpct was 76.72%.

Congratulations Joel. That is a fairly large sample. I think you may have certified yourself as the greatest college football handicapper of all time. I can't wait to read about how you crushed with your NFL bets too.

Here's what you said about last year re college football: " I personally did not do well last year."

That means you may have hit on close to 90% in the year before that. Absolutely superb.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 12, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
LuckyPhow
• Posts: 698
Joined: May 19, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 5:55:26 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

I finished the calculations for the ATS results

I don't bet on sports, but Joel apparently lives, eats, and breathes the stuff. So, if you're like me, you may be confused by his (undefined) reference to "ATS."

I was confused about why he would be referencing the All-Tall-Small craps bet. Possible, as Joel has previously indicated he sometimes plays craps. But, in this case, he was (almost certainly, I'm pretty durn sure) referring to "Against The Spread," something (probably) well-understood by those who bet on sports (and other various) contests.

Joel, please correct me if I am still confused. I'm no ATS expert.
SOOPOO
• Posts: 11177
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
March 12th, 2017 at 7:33:18 AM permalink
Joel...... 412-125. Seriously, if I told you I had a system that achieved those results, and published a large table (GIVING NOT A SINGLE SPECIFIC) "proving" that I achieved those results, what would you think?

Do you think you have now found a 'system'that will repeatedly achieve the 77% results you say you got? If so, please buy me a Maserati after you get your Lamborghini.....
SM777
• Posts: 762
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 8:40:58 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Congratulations Joel. That is a fairly large sample. I think you may have certified yourself as the greatest college football handicapper of all time. I can't wait to read about how you crushed with your NFL bets too.

Here's what you said about last year re college football: " I personally did not do well last year."

That means you may have hit on close to 90% in the year before that. Absolutely superb.

Haha. Such a perfect response.
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 8:41:21 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Joel...... 412-125. Seriously, if I told you I had a system that achieved those results, and published a large table (GIVING NOT A SINGLE SPECIFIC) "proving" that I achieved those results, what would you think?

Do you think you have now found a 'system'that will repeatedly achieve the 77% results you say you got? If so, please buy me a Maserati after you get your Lamborghini.....

Two years of results is a very small sample size. All I said was that I'm "hopeful" for 2017 based on the discovery data.

I will put together a table summary for all of the data and post it today.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
SM777
• Posts: 762
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 8:41:37 AM permalink
Best of luck during March Madness, Joel. We look forward to hearing how you crushed the books and went 25-0 in hopes of gaining someone to sign up to your site.
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 11:07:44 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

Best of luck during March Madness, Joel. We look forward to hearing how you crushed the books and went 25-0 in hopes of gaining someone to sign up to your site.

I don't bet on basketball. I don't post links to my site or tout my site. Every bit of information I share has no reference, links, or pointers (direct or indirect) to my site. I did that "once" when I first joined as an intro and have never done so again.

I've never understood the hate when someone posts information. No where in the information I posted in this topic did I ever once said I crushed or won all of the picks. In fact, I stated very clearly, for anyone that read it, that I did not do well last year. My ATS picks were average at best last year.

As far as my site is concerned, it is mainly a "research site" filled with a ton of data for people to comb through. Most people have an idea of what they want to do as far as wagering. All I do is provide them the data so they can determine if they have an advantage on a game.

What I like about the Wizard and this site is that it contains a lot of easy to read data for many types of games. It's number 1 in my book. My site only focuses on football (college and pro). My goal is to provide as much data as possible on any team or game. I have more than 150 data models where I perform detailed regression analysis to help define and determine predictors.

Since we had a rough start last year SM777, I'll offer my apologies to you for anything negative that I said or implied in any conversation where we differed in opinion. I'm really tired of fighting. It's not productive.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
TomG
• Posts: 2432
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
Thanked by
March 12th, 2017 at 2:24:03 PM permalink
I can guarantee that next year there will be some angle that wins 400 out of 500 against the spread. I can also guarantee that the chance of it being the same angle as last year is near zero
SOOPOO
• Posts: 11177
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
March 12th, 2017 at 2:31:19 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Two years of results is a very small sample size. All I said was that I'm "hopeful" for 2017 based on the discovery data.

I will put together a table summary for all of the data and post it today.

412-125 on even money bets is NOT a small sample size. The likelihood of that win % over 537 events randomly is 1 out of a number with LOTS of zeroes. Most distressing is a man who claims to know a lot about betting NOT realizing that a 412-125 record would likely be the best record over 537 even money bets in the history of human gambling.
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 5:48:02 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

412-125 on even money bets is NOT a small sample size. The likelihood of that win % over 537 events randomly is 1 out of a number with LOTS of zeroes. Most distressing is a man who claims to know a lot about betting NOT realizing that a 412-125 record would likely be the best record over 537 even money bets in the history of human gambling.

The sample size of games within a specific ATS bracket (-1, -1.5, -2, etc.) is small over a 2-year period, no matter how many total combined games are tallied. The end result, after going through all of the data and running multiple tests is:

A net result of more than 480 games that combine for a 63.32% win pct. This includes combining betting on favorites or underdogs via brackets. I'll post the results over the next few days because I'm busy. I'll start at the top of the favorites and work towards underdogs, only providing data that houses an advantage.

Bracket One: ATS of -31 to -37.5 (betting on the Vegas underdog and the System Underdog) (73.9% win pct)

GamesWins on OpponentLosses on OpponentPushes on OpponentWin Pct
47341210.739130435

The qualifier on the bracket has to be a minimum of 40 games uninterrupted from one ATS point to the next ATS point. I don't care if I only find 1, 3, or even 7 brackets of advantage data. All I care is that it produces a positive advantage. Any ATS points not shown produced avg return values.

The columns that are important are the ATS and the Cov. If betting on the opponent ATS we look for the 0 values under the COV. If betting on the favorite, we look for the 1 values under the COV.

WkYear* P-WinnerOpponentATSMLScoreWon Gm?DiffCov?
42015AlabamaLa.-Monroe-37.5-3301034 - 0yes340
52016AlabamaKentucky-37.5-3000034 - 6yes280
32015TCUSMU-37-3510056 - 37yes190
82015BaylorIowa St.-37-3240045 - 27yes180
22016WashingtonIdaho-37-3700059 - 14yes451
12015BaylorSMU-36.5-2700056 - 21yes350
82016WashingtonOregon St.-36.5-3105041 - 17yes240
12015GeorgiaLa.-Monroe-35.5-2700051 - 14yes371
32015MichiganUNLV-35.5-2970028 - 7yes210
132015OregonOregon St.-35.5-2065552 - 42yes100
22016MichiganUCF-35.5-3000051 - 14yes371
32016WisconsinGeorgia St.-35.5-2100023 - 17yes60
22015AlabamaMiddle Tenn.-35-2700037 - 10yes270
32015Ohio St.Northern Ill.-35-2700020 - 13yes70
72016LouisvilleDuke-35-2500024 - 14yes100
112016LouisvilleWake Forest-35-2300044 - 12yes320
122016Western Mich.Buffalo-35-2300038 - 0yes381
132016StanfordRice-35-3150041 - 17yes240
12015FloridaNew Mexico St.-34.5-2700061 - 13yes481
32015WisconsinTroy-34.5-1947528 - 3yes250
72015Western Ky.North Texas-34.5-1670055 - 28yes270
82015Boise St.Wyoming-34.5-2260034 - 14yes200
82015Oklahoma St.Kansas-34.5-2082558 - 10yes481
12016FloridaMassachusetts-34.5-3000024 - 7yes170
72016BaylorKansas-34.5-1947549 - 7yes421
42015BaylorRice-34-2150070 - 17yes531
122015AuburnIdaho-34-2150056 - 34yes220
32016FloridaNorth Texas-34-1860032 - 0yes320
32016BaylorRice-33.5-2000038 - 10yes280
92016LouisvilleVirginia-33.5-1250032 - 25yes70
12015ArizonaUTSA-33-1500042 - 32yes100
42015Ohio St.Western Mich.-33-1400538 - 12yes260
62015Ohio St.Maryland-33-1677549 - 28yes210
72015Texas TechKansas-32.5-1321030 - 20yes100
52016AuburnLa.-Monroe-32.5-1401058 - 7yes511
12015OklahomaAkron-32-1588841 - 3yes381
22016BaylorSMU-32-1365040 - 13yes270
102016West VirginiaKansas-32-2150048 - 21yes270
12015ArkansasUTEP-31.5-1677548 - 13yes351
92015MemphisTulane-31.5-1015541 - 13yes280
112015Boise St.New Mexico-31.5-1350031 - 24no70
42016HoustonTexas St.-31.5-1812564 - 3yes611
72016ToledoBowling Green-31.5-1137542 - 35yes70
102016Appalachian St.Texas St.-31.5-1137535 - 10yes250
122015FloridaFla. Atlantic-31-1137520 - 14yes60
42016LouisvilleMarshall-31-1000059 - 28yes31push
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 6:04:12 PM permalink
Bracket 2: ATS of -27.5 to -30.5 (Betting on the Vegas Favorite and the System Favorite) (63.4% win pct)

GamesWins on FavoriteLosses on FavoritePushes on FavoriteWin Pct
44261530.634146341

Qualifier must be 40+ games uninterrupted from one ATS point to another ATS point.

The columns that are important are the ATS and the Cov. If betting on the opponent ATS we look for the 0 values under the COV. If betting on the favorite, we look for the 1 values under the COV.

WkYear* P-WinnerOpponentATSMLScoreWon Gm?DiffCov?
22015Georgia TechTulane-30.5-910065 - 10yes551
22015Ole MissFresno St.-30.5-1137573 - 21yes521
22015UCLAUNLV-30.5-798037 - 3yes341
22015Texas A&MBall St.-30.5-863556 - 23yes331
32015OklahomaTulsa-30.5-728052 - 38yes140
62015Mississippi St.Troy-30.5-1002545 - 17yes280
72015Ga. SouthernNew Mexico St.-30.5-855056 - 26yes300
112015ClemsonSyracuse-30.5-1002537 - 27yes100
62016MichiganRutgers-30.5-791578 - 0yes781
92016Louisiana TechRice-30.5-850061 - 16yes451
102015Louisiana TechNorth Texas-29.5-910056 - 13yes431
102016MichiganMaryland-29.5-933559 - 3yes561
42015Notre DameMassachusetts-29-850062 - 27yes351
72015ToledoEastern Mich.-29-730663 - 20yes431
122015ClemsonWake Forest-29-686333 - 13yes200
32016ArkansasTexas St.-29-830042 - 3yes391
62016TCUKansas-29-750024 - 23yes10
102016Boise St.San Jose St.-29-730645 - 31yes140
112016AlabamaMississippi St.-29-1000051 - 3yes481
22015Florida St.South Fla.-28.5-646534 - 14yes200
22016Ohio St.Tulsa-28.5-686348 - 3yes451
112016Western Ky.North Texas-28.5-750045 - 7yes381
122016Boise St.UNLV-28.5-640042 - 25yes170
122016BYUMassachusetts-28.5-750051 - 9yes421
12015Florida St.Texas St.-28-491059 - 16yes431
82015MarshallNorth Texas-28-45030 - 13yes170
82015Northern Ill.Eastern Mich.-28-551349 - 21yes28push
12016Mississippi St.South Ala.-28-850021 - 20no10
22016AlabamaWestern Ky.-28-640038 - 10yes28push
52016Texas TechKansas-28-400055 - 19yes361
52016HoustonUConn-28-450042 - 14yes28push
62016Ohio St.Indiana-28-574538 - 17yes210
122016WisconsinPurdue-28-400049 - 20yes291
12015Southern CaliforniaArkansas St.-27.5-1000055 - 6yes491
12016IowaMiami (OH)-27.5-1000045 - 21yes240
12016Ohio St.Bowling Green-27.5-850077 - 10yes671
112016Ohio St.Maryland-27.5-910062 - 3yes591
122016Texas A&MUTSA-27.5-410023 - 10yes130
132016TroyTexas St.-27.5-400040 - 7yes331
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 6:15:32 PM permalink
Bracket 3: ATS of -21 to -24.5 (Betting on Vegas Underdog and System Underdog) (60.6% Win pct)

GamesWins on OpponentLosses on OpponentPushes on OpponentWin Pct
95573710.606382979

Qualifier must be 40+ games uninterrupted from one ATS point to another ATS point.

The columns that are important are the ATS and the Cov. If betting on the opponent ATS we look for the 0 values under the COV. If betting on the favorite, we look for the 1 values under the COV.

WkYear* P-WinnerOpponentATSMLScoreWon Gm?DiffCov?
42015WisconsinHawaii-24.5-210028 - 0yes281
82015NavyTulane-24.5-300031 - 14yes170
82015Western Mich.Miami (OH)-24.5-300035 - 13yes220
92015Southern Miss.UTEP-24.5-350034 - 13yes210
92015Western Ky.Old Dominion-24.5-350055 - 30yes251
102015Western Ky.Fla. Atlantic-24.5-250035 - 19yes160
102015OklahomaIowa St.-24.5-400052 - 16yes361
102015MichiganRutgers-24.5-210049 - 16yes331
12016ArkansasLouisiana Tech-24.5-400021 - 20yes10
32016TCUIowa St.-24.5-300041 - 20yes210
32016North Carolina St.Old Dominion-24.5-300049 - 22yes271
92016MichiganMichigan St.-24.5-300032 - 23yes90
112016WisconsinIllinois-24.5-230048 - 3yes451
122016MichiganIndiana-24.5-220020 - 10yes100
132016PittsburghSyracuse-24.5-350076 - 61yes150
32015MinnesotaKent St.-24-220010 - 7yes30
92015Appalachian St.Troy-24-180044 - 41yes30
112015San Diego St.Wyoming-24-170038 - 3yes351
122015KentuckyCharlotte-24-400058 - 10yes481
22016OregonVirginia-24-300044 - 26yes180
52016Boise St.Utah St.-24-300021 - 10yes110
82016Northern Ill.Buffalo-24-200044 - 7yes371
122016ClemsonWake Forest-24-200035 - 13yes220
132016Western Ky.Marshall-24-200060 - 6yes541
142016AlabamaFlorida-24-300054 - 16yes381
72015WisconsinPurdue-23.5-200024 - 7yes170
102015Ohio St.Minnesota-23.5-200028 - 14yes140
122015Middle Tenn.North Texas-23.5-400041 - 7yes341
132015Central Mich.Eastern Mich.-23.5-220035 - 28yes70
132015Appalachian St.La.-Lafayette-23.5-200028 - 7yes210
132015South Fla.UCF-23.5-200044 - 3yes411
22016WisconsinAkron-23.5-165054 - 10yes441
32016ArizonaHawaii-23.5-250047 - 28yes190
82016Oklahoma St.Kansas-23.5-260044 - 20yes241
132015Bowling GreenBall St.-23-200048 - 10yes381
82016San Diego St.San Jose St.-23-250042 - 3yes391
122016GeorgiaUl Lafayette-23-200035 - 21yes140
132016TulsaCincinnati-23-250040 - 37yes30
142016Arkansas St.Texas St.-23-200036 - 14yes220
12016Penn St.Kent St.-22.5-200033 - 13yes200
42016Mississippi St.Massachusetts-22.5-200047 - 35yes120
112016Louisiana TechUTSA-22.5-160063 - 35yes281
52015Ohio St.Indiana-22-150034 - 27yes70
52015Arkansas St.Idaho-22-140049 - 35yes140
52015TempleCharlotte-22-200037 - 3yes341
152015NavyArmy West Point-22-150021 - 17yes40
52016Louisiana TechUTEP-22-200028 - 7yes210
72016Florida St.Wake Forest-22-160017 - 6yes110
82016HoustonSMU-22-200038 - 16no220
112016ClemsonPittsburgh-22-200043 - 42no10
122016Ohio St.Michigan St.-22-160017 - 16yes10
12015Northern Ill.UNLV-21.5-180038 - 30yes80
12015Oklahoma St.Central Mich.-21.5-160024 - 13yes110
12015TennesseeBowling Green-21.5-150059 - 30yes291
22015ArkansasToledo-21.5-140016 - 12no40
32015MissouriUConn-21.5-18009 - 6yes30
52015Michigan St.Purdue-21.5-170024 - 21yes30
62015Air ForceWyoming-21.5-150031 - 17yes140
72015TempleUCF-21.5-130030 - 16yes140
82015HoustonUCF-21.5-150059 - 10yes491
112015CincinnatiTulsa-21.5-150049 - 38yes110
112015CaliforniaOregon St.-21.5-160054 - 24yes301
122015IowaPurdue-21.5-150040 - 20yes200
122015Southern Miss.Old Dominion-21.5-150056 - 31yes251
132015MemphisSMU-21.5-150063 - 0yes631
132015Ga. SouthernSouth Ala.-21.5-130055 - 17yes381
22016Air ForceGeorgia St.-21.5-140048 - 14yes341
22016AuburnArkansas St.-21.5-200051 - 14yes371
32016Arizona St.UTSA-21.5-200032 - 28yes40
92016Western Ky.Fla. Atlantic-21.5-160052 - 3yes491
112016MichiganIowa-21.5-160014 - 13no10
112016Western Mich.Kent St.-21.5-200037 - 21yes160
112016Boise St.Hawaii-21.5-200052 - 16yes361
122016Florida St.Syracuse-21.5-160045 - 14yes311
12015Mississippi St.Southern Miss.-21-140034 - 16yes180
22015GeorgiaVanderbilt-21-125031 - 14yes170
22015FloridaEast Carolina-21-120031 - 24yes70
82015Ohio St.Rutgers-21-140049 - 7yes421
92015Ga. SouthernTexas St.-21-160037 - 13yes241
112015NavySMU-21-160055 - 14yes411
142015Ga. SouthernGeorgia St.-21-200034 - 7no270
142015BaylorTexas-21-130023 - 17no60
12016OhioTexas St.-21-160056 - 54no20
32016MemphisKansas-21-145043 - 7yes361
72016HoustonTulsa-21-160038 - 31yes70
82016Appalachian St.Idaho-21-160037 - 19yes180
92016Arkansas St.La.-Monroe-21-130051 - 10yes411
102016TroyMassachusetts-21-160052 - 31yes21push
132016IndianaPurdue-21-130026 - 24yes20
132016TempleEast Carolina-21-150037 - 10yes271
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 6:19:52 PM permalink
There is no value on -15.5 to -20.5 ATS. The cover win % is 50% with both favorites and opponents covering evenly (83-83, 50%). Therefore, this bracket is not posted.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 6:38:03 PM permalink
The next bracket was tough. I said it had to contain 40+ games and be continuous but the high and low ends are more advantageous on this bracket.

ATSWinPct
-1572.22%
-14.556.67%
-1456.67%
-13.569.57%

Bracket 4: ATS of -13.5 to -15 (Betting on Vegas Favorite and System Favorite) (62.3% Win pct)

GamesWins on FavoriteLosses on FavoritePushes on FavoriteWin Pct
101633800.623762376

Qualifier must be 40+ games uninterrupted from one ATS point to another ATS point.

The columns that are important are the ATS and the Cov. If betting on the opponent ATS we look for the 0 values under the COV. If betting on the favorite, we look for the 1 values under the COV.

WkYear* P-WinnerOpponentATSMLScoreWon Gm?DiffCov?
42015Ga. SouthernIdaho-15-70044 - 20yes241
62015TempleTulane-15-70049 - 10yes391
62015ToledoKent St.-15-65038 - 7yes311
82015Southern Miss.Charlotte-15-70044 - 10yes341
122015WashingtonOregon St.-15-70052 - 7yes451
22016LouisvilleSyracuse-15-72562 - 28yes341
42016WashingtonArizona-15-60035 - 28yes70
42016TulsaFresno St.-15-65048 - 41yes70
52016TroyIdaho-15-70034 - 13yes211
62016South Fla.East Carolina-15-70038 - 22yes161
82016Western Ky.Old Dominion-15-70059 - 24yes351
92016TennesseeSouth Carolina-15-65024 - 21no30
92016North Carolina St.Boston College-15-70021 - 14no70
122016TempleTulane-15-70031 - 0yes311
132016Miami (FL)Duke-15-70040 - 21yes191
42015RutgersKansas-14.5-60027 - 14yes130
42015South CarolinaUCF-14.5-70031 - 14yes171
42015Penn St.San Diego St.-14.5-80037 - 21yes161
52015MichiganMaryland-14.5-70028 - 0yes281
52015TCUTexas-14.5-70050 - 7yes431
62015FIUUTEP-14.5-60052 - 12yes401
72015GeorgiaMissouri-14.5-7009 - 6yes30
82015AlabamaTennessee-14.5-70019 - 14yes50
82015ToledoMassachusetts-14.5-70051 - 35yes161
82015OklahomaTexas Tech-14.5-60063 - 27yes361
82015Michigan St.Indiana-14.5-70052 - 26yes261
102015Western Mich.Ball St.-14.5-65054 - 7yes471
112015NorthwesternPurdue-14.5-70021 - 14yes70
112015Arkansas St.La.-Monroe-14.5-65059 - 21yes381
112015Michigan St.Maryland-14.5-70024 - 7yes171
122015East CarolinaUCF-14.5-65044 - 7yes371
132015AlabamaAuburn-14.5-70029 - 13yes161
132015ArkansasMissouri-14.5-60028 - 3yes251
12016TempleArmy West Point-14.5-70028 - 13no150
12016StanfordKansas St.-14.5-70026 - 13yes130
42016UNLVIdaho-14.5-65033 - 30no30
42016IowaRutgers-14.5-60014 - 7yes70
62016TulsaSMU-14.5-60043 - 40yes30
72016Louisiana TechMassachusetts-14.5-70056 - 28yes281
72016TexasIowa St.-14.5-55027 - 6yes211
112016Michigan St.Rutgers-14.5-60049 - 0yes491
122016UtahOregon-14.5-60030 - 28no20
122016LSUFlorida-14.5-60016 - 10no60
132016Louisiana TechSouthern Miss.-14.5-55039 - 24no150
132016WisconsinMinnesota-14.5-60031 - 17yes140
12015Ohio St.Virginia Tech-14-80042 - 24yes181
22015CaliforniaSan Diego St.-14-60035 - 7yes281
32015UtahFresno St.-14-60045 - 24yes211
42015Louisiana TechFIU-14-65027 - 17yes100
42015StanfordOregon St.-14-60042 - 24yes181
82015FIUOld Dominion-14-55041 - 12yes291
92015TCUWest Virginia-14-70040 - 10yes301
102015LouisvilleSyracuse-14-60041 - 17yes241
112015LouisvilleVirginia-14-65038 - 31yes70
122015Ohio St.Michigan St.-14-60017 - 14no30
132015West VirginiaIowa St.-14-60030 - 6yes241
162015Virginia TechTulsa-14-55055 - 52yes30
22016South Fla.Northern Ill.-14-60048 - 17yes311
32016South Fla.Syracuse-14-60045 - 20yes251
52016North Carolina St.Wake Forest-14-55033 - 16yes171
62016AlabamaArkansas-14-55049 - 30yes191
72016Air ForceNew Mexico-14-60045 - 40no50
72016GeorgiaVanderbilt-14-60017 - 16no10
82016Ga. SouthernNew Mexico St.-14-60022 - 19yes30
92016Central Mich.Kent St.-14-65027 - 24no30
92016Air ForceFresno St.-14-55031 - 21yes100
92016Washington St.Oregon St.-14-60035 - 31yes40
92016Penn St.Purdue-14-55062 - 24yes381
112016Virginia TechGeorgia Tech-14-55030 - 20no100
112016TennesseeKentucky-14-55049 - 36yes130
132016Middle Tenn.Fla. Atlantic-14-55077 - 56yes211
132016MarylandRutgers-14-60031 - 13yes181
162016Mississippi St.Miami (OH)-14-60017 - 16yes10
162016AlabamaWashington-14-70024 - 7yes171
52015UCLAArizona St.-13.5-55038 - 23no150
52015StanfordArizona-13.5-55055 - 17yes381
62015Michigan St.Rutgers-13.5-55031 - 24yes70
62015DukeArmy West Point-13.5-50044 - 3yes411
62015Bowling GreenMassachusetts-13.5-55062 - 38yes241
62015LSUSouth Carolina-13.5-50045 - 24yes211
72015East CarolinaTulsa-13.5-55030 - 17yes130
72015Appalachian St.La.-Monroe-13.5-55059 - 14yes451
82015Bowling GreenKent St.-13.5-55048 - 0yes481
132015Northern Ill.Ohio-13.5-60026 - 21no50
22016Ga. SouthernSouth Ala.-13.5-55024 - 9yes151
42016Southern Miss.UTEP-13.5-55034 - 7yes271
42016Virginia TechEast Carolina-13.5-60054 - 17yes371
62016CaliforniaOregon St.-13.5-55047 - 44no30
62016OklahomaTexas-13.5-50045 - 40yes50
72016AlabamaTennessee-13.5-55049 - 10yes391
72016OklahomaKansas St.-13.5-55038 - 17yes211
112016NorthwesternPurdue-13.5-50045 - 17yes281
122016Southern CaliforniaUCLA-13.5-50036 - 14yes221
132016Bowling GreenBuffalo-13.5-55027 - 19yes80
132016Old DominionFIU-13.5-55042 - 28yes141
162016Air ForceSouth Ala.-13.5-55045 - 21yes241
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 6:42:57 PM permalink
There is no advantage value on -4.5 to -13 ATS for either betting the favorite or the opponent The cover wins and losses is (247 wins and 259 losses). Therefore, this bracket is not posted.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 6:49:00 PM permalink
Bracket 5: ATS -4 only. It's a sizeable bracket. (Betting on Vegas Favorite and System Favorite) (68.2% Win pct)

GamesWins on FavoriteLosses on FavoritePushes on FavoriteWin Pct
43281320.682926829

Qualifier must be 40+ games uninterrupted from one ATS point to another ATS point.

The columns that are important are the ATS and the Cov. If betting on the opponent ATS we look for the 0 values under the COV. If betting on the favorite, we look for the 1 values under the COV.

WkYear* P-WinnerOpponentATSMLScoreWon Gm?DiffCov?
22015Michigan St.Oregon-4-17531 - 28yes30
22015SyracuseWake Forest-4-18030 - 17yes131
42015Southern CaliforniaArizona St.-4-18542 - 14yes281
42015San Jose St.Fresno St.-4-20049 - 23yes261
42015Bowling GreenPurdue-4-17535 - 28yes71
52015North Carolina St.Louisville-4-17020 - 13no70
52015Virginia TechPittsburgh-4-18517 - 13no40
52015UTSAUTEP-4-17525 - 6yes191
62015MinnesotaPurdue-4-16541 - 13yes281
62015FloridaMissouri-4-17521 - 3yes181
62015La.-LafayetteTexas St.-4-17549 - 27yes221
72015OhioWestern Mich.-4-18549 - 14no350
72015AlabamaTexas A&M-4-18041 - 23yes181
72015OklahomaKansas St.-4-18055 - 0yes551
92015TexasIowa St.-4-18024 - 0no240
102015IllinoisPurdue-4-17048 - 14yes341
102015North Carolina St.Boston College-4-20024 - 8yes161
112015ToledoCentral Mich.-4-18528 - 23yes51
122015North CarolinaVirginia Tech-4-17530 - 27yes30
122015Kansas St.Iowa St.-4-20038 - 35yes30
122015AkronBuffalo-4-20042 - 21yes211
132015Fla. AtlanticOld Dominion-4-18033 - 31yes20
132015GeorgiaGeorgia Tech-4-18013 - 7yes61
132015DukeWake Forest-4-17527 - 21yes61
142015HoustonTemple-4-18024 - 13yes111
142015StanfordSouthern California-4-18041 - 22yes191
12016VanderbiltSouth Carolina-4-18513 - 10no30
22016NavyUConn-4-17528 - 24yes4push
32016UConnVirginia-4-18513 - 10yes30
42016Middle Tenn.Louisiana Tech-4-18538 - 34yes4push
72016PittsburghVirginia-4-17545 - 31yes141
72016IllinoisRutgers-4-21024 - 7yes171
72016IdahoNew Mexico St.-4-19055 - 23yes321
82016UCFUConn-4-19024 - 16yes81
92016StanfordArizona-4-18534 - 10yes241
92016UTSANorth Texas-4-18531 - 17yes141
102016RiceFla. Atlantic-4-18542 - 25no170
102016WyomingUtah St.-4-17552 - 28yes241
162016UCFArkansas St.-4-19031 - 13no180
162016TroyOhio-4-18028 - 23yes51
162016Miami (FL)West Virginia-4-14531 - 14yes171
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 8:14:27 PM permalink
There is no value on -3.5 to -1 ATS. Wagering on either the favorite or the opponent would net a (94 - 95) record. Therefore, this bracket is not posted.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 8:22:11 PM permalink
This is the first bracket that deals with underdogs.

Bracket 6: ATS +1 to +3.5. (Betting against the Vegas favorite and instead betting on the System Favorite (which is also a Vegas Underdog) (60.1% Win pct)).

GamesWins on System FavoriteLosses on System FavoritePushes on System FavoriteWin Pct
113654350.601851852

Qualifier must be 40+ games uninterrupted from one ATS point to another ATS point.

The columns that are important are the ATS and the Cov. If betting on the opponent ATS we look for the 0 values under the COV. If betting on the favorite, we look for the 1 values under the COV.

WkYear* P-WinnerOpponentATSMLScoreWon Gm?DiffCov?
32015Western Ky.Indiana110038 - 35no30
82015Texas St.South Ala.110536 - 18yes181
122015LouisvillePittsburgh110045 - 34no110
22016Texas TechArizona St.110068 - 55no130
32016Texas A&MAuburn110529 - 16yes131
32016LouisvilleFlorida St.110063 - 20yes431
92016SMUTulane110035 - 31yes41
102016Western Ky.FIU110049 - 21yes281
112016Southern Miss.Old Dominion110051 - 35no160
122016ArkansasMississippi St.110058 - 42yes161
42015Mississippi St.Auburn1.510517 - 9yes81
52015AlabamaGeorgia1.510538 - 10yes281
62015SyracuseSouth Fla.1.510545 - 24no210
122015DukeVirginia1.510542 - 34no80
132015HoustonNavy1.510052 - 31yes211
162015Miami (FL)Washington St.1.510520 - 14no60
32016South Ala.Ul Lafayette1.510528 - 23no50
82016MemphisNavy1.510542 - 28no140
82016Kansas St.Texas1.510524 - 21yes31
122016Eastern Mich.Northern Ill.1.510531 - 24no70
122016Kansas St.Baylor1.510542 - 21yes211
162016Boston CollegeMaryland1.510536 - 30yes61
32015BuffaloFla. Atlantic211033 - 15yes181
42015WashingtonCalifornia211030 - 24no60
42015ArizonaUCLA211056 - 23no330
62015San Diego St.Hawaii211028 - 14yes141
72015KentuckyAuburn211030 - 27no30
122015South Fla.Cincinnati211065 - 27yes381
142015TroyLa.-Lafayette211041 - 17yes241
52016Washington St.Oregon211051 - 33yes181
112016West VirginiaTexas210524 - 20yes41
112016TulsaNavy211542 - 40no2push
122016Virginia TechNotre Dame211034 - 31yes31
32015Southern Miss.Texas St.2.512056 - 50yes61
42015MissouriKentucky2.511521 - 13no80
62015UConnUCF2.511540 - 13yes271
72015VanderbiltSouth Carolina2.512019 - 10no90
72015South Fla.UConn2.512028 - 20yes81
102015MarshallMiddle Tenn.2.512527 - 24no30
102015Arizona St.Washington St.2.512038 - 24no140
102015AkronMassachusetts2.512017 - 13yes41
102015UtahWashington2.512534 - 23yes111
112015WashingtonArizona St.2.512027 - 17no100
112015La.-LafayetteSouth Ala.2.513032 - 25no70
112015Air ForceUtah St.2.512535 - 28yes71
112015OklahomaBaylor2.512044 - 34yes101
122015IndianaMaryland2.511047 - 28yes191
162015BYUUtah2.512035 - 28no70
32016East CarolinaSouth Carolina2.511520 - 15no50
82016Miami (OH)Bowling Green2.511540 - 26yes141
92016New MexicoHawaii2.512528 - 21yes71
12015Arizona St.Texas A&M314038 - 17no210
32015New Mexico St.UTEP313050 - 47no3push
52015FIUMassachusetts313024 - 14no100
62015North Carolina St.Virginia Tech313028 - 13no150
82015DukeVirginia Tech314545 - 43yes21
82015TempleEast Carolina312524 - 14yes101
112015Western Mich.Bowling Green313541 - 27no140
112015Virginia TechGeorgia Tech314023 - 21yes21
122015South Ala.Georgia St.312524 - 10no140
122015RiceUTSA313534 - 24no100
132015UCLASouthern California313040 - 21no190
132015UTEPNorth Texas313020 - 17yes31
162015DukeIndiana314044 - 41yes31
162015ToledoTemple313032 - 17yes151
12016Boston CollegeGeorgia Tech314017 - 14no3push
42016Eastern Mich.Wyoming313027 - 24yes31
52016Kansas St.West Virginia314017 - 16no11
52016UCFEast Carolina314047 - 29yes181
62016BuffaloKent St.313044 - 20no240
62016VanderbiltKentucky313520 - 13no70
72016StanfordNotre Dame313017 - 10yes71
82016MarylandMichigan St.312528 - 17yes111
82016OregonCalifornia313552 - 49no3push
122016MinnesotaNorthwestern313029 - 12yes171
142016TempleNavy312034 - 10yes241
162016LouisvilleLSU313529 - 9no200
162016IowaFlorida313530 - 3no270
162016AuburnOklahoma312535 - 19no160
162016Kansas St.Texas A&M312533 - 28yes51
22015OhioMarshall3.514521 - 10yes111
42015Wake ForestIndiana3.515031 - 24no70
42015Middle Tenn.Illinois3.515027 - 25no21
72015PittsburghGeorgia Tech3.515031 - 28yes31
102015CaliforniaOregon3.515044 - 28no160
112015CharlotteUTSA3.515530 - 27no31
132015Notre DameStanford3.515038 - 36no21
132015Arizona St.California3.515548 - 46no21
142015IowaMichigan St.3.515516 - 13no31
162015MemphisAuburn3.515031 - 10no210
162015WisconsinSouthern California3.514523 - 21yes21
162015ClemsonOklahoma3.515537 - 17yes201
12016Southern Miss.Kentucky3.515544 - 35yes91
22016Middle Tenn.Vanderbilt3.515047 - 24no230
32016BYUUCLA3.515017 - 14no31
42016WisconsinMichigan St.3.515530 - 6yes241
42016AuburnLSU3.515018 - 13yes51
52016MinnesotaPenn St.3.514029 - 26no31
52016ToledoBYU3.515055 - 53no21
52016FIUFla. Atlantic3.514533 - 31yes21
72016TempleUCF3.515526 - 25yes11
92016MarylandIndiana3.515542 - 36no60
112016VanderbiltMissouri3.515526 - 17no90
112016MemphisSouth Fla.3.514049 - 42no70
122016West VirginiaOklahoma3.514556 - 28no280
142016Kansas St.TCU3.515530 - 6yes241
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 8:32:33 PM permalink
Bracket 7: ATS +4 to +6.5. (Betting on the system opponent (which is also a Vegas Favorite) (63.1% Win pct)).

GamesWins on OpponentWins on OpponentPushes on OpponentWin Pct
58362110.631578947

Qualifier must be 40+ games uninterrupted from one ATS point to another ATS point.

The columns that are important are the ATS and the Cov. If betting on the opponent ATS we look for the 0 values under the COV. If betting on the favorite, we look for the 1 values under the COV.

WkYear* P-WinnerOpponentATSMLScoreWon Gm?DiffCov?
22015Mississippi St.LSU416521 - 19no21
82015CaliforniaUCLA416040 - 24no160
122015Southern CaliforniaOregon416048 - 28no200
132015La.-MonroeHawaii416028 - 26no21
22016Penn St.Pittsburgh416042 - 39no31
32016DukeNorthwestern416024 - 13no110
32016PittsburghOklahoma St.415545 - 38no70
62016BYUMichigan St.415531 - 14yes171
82016UtahUCLA415052 - 45yes71
112016UTEPFla. Atlantic415535 - 31no4push
12015Fla. AtlanticTulsa4.515547 - 44no31
22015Ga. SouthernWestern Mich.4.517043 - 17yes261
32015Eastern Mich.Ball St.4.517028 - 17no110
92015ArizonaWashington4.517049 - 3no460
122015IllinoisMinnesota4.517032 - 23no90
132015North Carolina St.North Carolina4.517545 - 34no110
12016San Jose St.Tulsa4.517045 - 10no350
12016ToledoArkansas St.4.516531 - 10yes211
42016South Fla.Florida St.4.517055 - 35no200
132016Georgia TechGeorgia4.516528 - 27yes11
42015Arkansas St.Toledo518037 - 7no300
92015IllinoisPenn St.518039 - 0no390
102015Eastern Mich.Miami (OH)517528 - 13no150
102015South Fla.East Carolina518022 - 17yes51
122015Mississippi St.Arkansas518051 - 50yes11
162015Central Mich.Minnesota518021 - 14no70
42016FloridaTennessee518038 - 28no100
42016UTSAOld Dominion518033 - 19no140
62016FIUUTEP518035 - 21yes141
72016South Ala.Arkansas St.517517 - 7no100
102016Georgia St.Arkansas St.518031 - 16no150
72015CharlotteOld Dominion5.517037 - 34no31
132015Southern Miss.Louisiana Tech5.518058 - 24yes341
52016IndianaMichigan St.5.518024 - 21yes31
92016Ga. SouthernAppalachian St.5.519034 - 10no240
132016South Ala.Idaho5.518038 - 31no70
32015South Fla.Maryland621035 - 17no180
52015Air ForceNavy619033 - 11no220
72015CincinnatiBYU619038 - 24no140
72015BuffaloCentral Mich.621051 - 14no370
82015Texas A&MOle Miss620023 - 3no200
162015North Carolina St.Mississippi St.620051 - 28no230
32016Boston CollegeVirginia Tech620049 - 0no490
102016MissouriSouth Carolina620031 - 21no100
122016Oklahoma St.TCU620031 - 6yes251
22015Georgia St.New Mexico St.6.522534 - 32yes21
52015West VirginiaOklahoma6.522044 - 24no200
62015Central Mich.Western Mich.6.521041 - 39no21
82015UtahSouthern California6.521042 - 24no180
172015ClemsonAlabama6.522045 - 40no51
62016Army West PointDuke6.521013 - 6no70
92016NavySouth Fla.6.522552 - 45no70
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 8:40:20 PM permalink
Bracket 8: This is the final bracket but it does not have a 40-game qualifier. (+7 ATS) (71.4% win pct)

GamesWins on System FavoriteLosses on System FavoritePushes on System FavoriteWin Pct
2215610.714285714

12015CharlotteGeorgia St.725023 - 20yes31
32015San Jose St.Oregon St.723035 - 21no140
32015Ole MissAlabama725043 - 37yes61
72015SyracuseVirginia723044 - 38no61
72015Kent St.Massachusetts724015 - 10yes51
72015FloridaLSU724035 - 28no7push
82015Kansas St.Texas724023 - 9no140
162015Air ForceCalifornia722055 - 36no190
162015TCUOregon724047 - 41yes61
162015HoustonFlorida St.723038 - 24yes141
22016IllinoisNorth Carolina723548 - 23no250
32016Michigan St.Notre Dame725036 - 28yes81
42016GeorgiaOle Miss724045 - 14no310
42016BYUWest Virginia725035 - 32no31
42016North TexasRice724042 - 35yes71
42016Wake ForestIndiana725033 - 28yes51
82016TempleSouth Fla.722046 - 30yes161
92016UConnEast Carolina723041 - 3no380
92016Army West PointWake Forest724021 - 13yes81
102016NavyNotre Dame723028 - 27yes11
112016SMUEast Carolina724055 - 31yes241
162016NavyLouisiana Tech722048 - 45no31

The remainder +ATS nets a rough 52% which is not advantageous enough to post.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 12th, 2017 at 8:47:21 PM permalink
Totals:

63.6% was the final from the combined ATS brackets. The inconsistency in the first posting was that my first snapshot was from development data and not from production data and I had not accounted for all games played in that DB. I have not gone through the data to determine any type of additional filtering. So, I do believe this can be improved.

Final is (324 - 185, 14 pushes) (63.6% win pct)

BracketGamesWinsLossesPushesWin Pct
147341210.739130435
244261530.634146341
395573710.606382979
4101633800.623762376
543281320.682926829
6113654350.601851852
758362110.631578947
82215610.714285714
Totals523324185140.63654224
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
SOOPOO
• Posts: 11177
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
March 14th, 2017 at 10:48:47 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Totals:

63.6% was the final from the combined ATS brackets. The inconsistency in the first posting was that my first snapshot was from development data and not from production data and I had not accounted for all games played in that DB. I have not gone through the data to determine any type of additional filtering. So, I do believe this can be improved.

Final is (324 - 185, 14 pushes) (63.6% win pct)

BracketGamesWinsLossesPushesWin Pct
147341210.739130435
244261530.634146341
395573710.606382979
4101633800.623762376
543281320.682926829
6113654350.601851852
758362110.631578947
82215610.714285714
Totals523324185140.63654224

Are you saying now that you WERE NOT 417-125, but rather 324-185? My brain hurts trying to go through all the charts....
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 21st, 2017 at 4:06:34 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Are you saying now that you WERE NOT 417-125, but rather 324-185? My brain hurts trying to go through all the charts....

I'm saying that after researching and looking at all of the ATS data over the last 2 years that the charts above represent any advantage within each ATS bracket. The totals are the combined results for that research data. Read through the data and determine whether it has any value to you.

That is not my overall record. My overall win pct is barely above 52%. But, I've only been diving into ATS picks over the last two seasons.

I primarily just provide research. My research data over many years was built to provide high probability value for which team would win the outcome of a game. It was never designed to measure ATS. But, like insurance principles, everyone has a risk appetite and so some people like higher value on returns at the cost of more risk. Therefore, I am working more on ATS research data and profiling.

“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
WatchMeWin
• Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
March 21st, 2017 at 8:27:36 AM permalink
JD, Unless you are posting your picks prior to the games starting, you will not convert anyone here. Anyone can post whatever they want post games played where the results are as you wish them to be. If you have done this somewhere in this forum/thread, then my apologies for not reading all the mumbo jumbo.

Look at what Rising Dough are Steeldco are doing... they are posting their picks prior to game starting. These are the only picks I will pay attention to or give merit to.

btw, I went 19-1 the past two weeks in hoops. See what Im sayin?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
March 21st, 2017 at 9:00:38 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

JD, Unless you are posting your picks prior to the games starting, you will not convert anyone here. Anyone can post whatever they want post games played where the results are as you wish them to be. If you have done this somewhere in this forum/thread, then my apologies for not reading all the mumbo jumbo.

Look at what Rising Dough are Steeldco are doing... they are posting their picks prior to game starting. These are the only picks I will pay attention to or give merit to.

btw, I went 19-1 the past two weeks in hoops. See what Im sayin?

I'm not trying to convert anyone and I don't want to be viewed as a tout going forward. The data I posted is for informational purposes only. If you find the data useful then great.

My goal is finding discovery data that may provide an advantage. My sole concentration is on football.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
WatchMeWin
• Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
March 21st, 2017 at 9:54:21 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

I'm not trying to convert anyone and I don't want to be viewed as a tout going forward. The data I posted is for informational purposes only. If you find the data useful then great.

My goal is finding discovery data that may provide an advantage. My sole concentration is on football.

Are you in the handicapping or sports picking business?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
bazooooka
• Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
May 8th, 2017 at 6:44:32 PM permalink
Joel,

Can you post your NCAA data just for 2015 and then select the best trends where you think you system and the line correlate? Having found those trends, how did they do in 2016? If you can do this going back many years that would be indeed be impressive. Isn't it likely though that the correlations and trends are near random and that they don't hold up as well for the following seasons. However if you found a trend back in 2013 and then it worked in 2014-2016 that indeed would be interesting over 1000+picks.
JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
May 9th, 2017 at 11:58:58 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Joel,

Can you post your NCAA data just for 2015 and then select the best trends where you think you system and the line correlate? Having found those trends, how did they do in 2016? If you can do this going back many years that would be indeed be impressive. Isn't it likely though that the correlations and trends are near random and that they don't hold up as well for the following seasons. However if you found a trend back in 2013 and then it worked in 2014-2016 that indeed would be interesting over 1000+picks.

I'll answer your question by posting the top 3 trends for college.

1. [2016] TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength): Accounts for 71.75% Win Probability
1. [2013,2014,2015] TSRS: Accounted for a 70.82% Win Probability

2. [2016] RERDiff (Rushing Efficiency Rating Difference): Accounts for 66.40% Win Probability
2. [2013,2014,2015] RERDiff: Accounted for a 65.88% Win Probability

3. [2016] PERDiff (Passing Efficiency Rating Difference): Accounts for 63.90% Win Probability
3. [2013,2014,2015] PERDiff: Accounted for a 63.99% Win Probability

I have more than 36 Trends that I forecast, with 22 of them accounting for greater than 50% Win Probability. But, since I posted the top 3, I'll explain what they are so I'm not asked the question at a later date.

TSRS

When facing an opponent, each stat category is compared against its opposite. If the opponent is stronger in the comparison, and the team facing them does not deviate from its measured potential, the team will increase slightly in its strength index. TSRS calculates strength of offensive, defensive, and special teams groupings, rates and assigns strength of schedule, and uses covariance between these groups to measure how much these areas change over time. I named it True Statistical Rating of Strength because it handles inflation/deflation values that come with raw statistics. All statistics, regardless of type are converted into a base floating point number. Standard Deviation is used to measure dispersion between teams and lower SD helps determine consistency and quality within each stat grouping. To date, just using TSRS alone produces a 70% or better win probability on any college game.

RERDiff

I created my own Rushing Efficiency Rating formula because it is highly likely you will not find one anywhere on the web, much less one that is accurate. In college, rushing efficiency is slightly more important than passing efficiency. The two are very close but unlike the NFL, rushing is very important in college football. Each offense has a rushing efficiency rating and each defense has a rushing efficiency rating. The greater the RER on offense, the stronger the team is at running the ball. The lower the RER on defense, the stronger the team is defensively at limiting the run. Subtract the two and you have an RERDiff. A team that has a very large RERDiff has a decided advantage over a team that does not.

PERDiff

Pass Efficiency Rating Difference is exact in detail when compared to RERDiff above. It has it's own formula, but the mechanics are pretty much the same as RERDiff so no need to explain this further.

SUMMARY

This year I've built out special AI scenarios for ML and ATS in College and NFL football. I have four unique AI programs that handle scenario driven data.

ML AI for College:

The ML AI for College which I call "Victor Argentum" goes through four base scenarios, and each scenario has up to 15 logic based criteria.

For instance, the four base start with: Power 5 vs. Power 5, Power 5 vs. Group of 5 or IA, Group of 5 or IA vs. Power 5 and finally, Group of 5 or IA vs Group of 5 or IA. Notre Dame is the only exclusion of the group and are considered Power 5 even though they are an Independent. If my system predicts a group of 5 team to beat a power 5 team, it goes through that part of the scenario and is matched to any of the criteria. If it doesn't have greater than a 78% probability after the process is completed, the game is tossed out. Each game fits its own scenario.

ATS is a lot more complicated and I'm pretty excited about all of the scenarios I have in place this year. I won't go into detail here.

--------

“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
bazooooka
• Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
May 9th, 2017 at 12:43:15 PM permalink
JD,

I've read that 6 point favorites win 70% or more of the time in college football. Does you system add value by winning ML bets above 60% on games where the spread is between -5 and +5? And how does your system find edge on ATS bets?

Have you found your system predicted winners, especially if the books have them as a slight dog, or covering at 60%? And have you back-tested your algo on past seasons to see if the relationship has held to past regimes and increased data?

It would be impressive if you found over hundreds of system picks that your algo can cover more often than not if when books are +1 to +3 on a team yet you have it capped as a -3 situation. What other scenarios are you able to find edge?
bazooooka
• Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
May 9th, 2017 at 3:25:19 PM permalink
Joel,

I'd assume your system and the bookmakers choose the same favorite over 80% (90%?) the time?

Given that; how is it possible your seeing 78% (even 60% would seem improbable) in the -1 to -9.5 games when this range covers half the D1 games (around 800)? Not to mention favorites only covered around 47% for the 2016 across all D1 games.

Your seemingly saying had you just bet your favorites (or even the Vegas favs since there will be huge overlap with your picks) in all games between +16 to -16 you'd have scored huge.

But surely as a seasoned gambler you know that this is false? What am I missing?

Quote: JoelDeze

I finished the calculations for the ATS results over the past two years. I analyzed and extrapolated the data, trying to find a correlation between my system picks and Vegas oddsmaker data. I currently pull oddsmaker data from every Vegas and every offshore book for every week of seasonal play. The goal is not to prove or disprove anything. The overall goal is to find an edge within the results that provides inherent value.

I personally did not do well last year. During previous years, I focused on ML values and was doing fine. However, the last two years I've been trying to shift to an ATS only format as the return value is greater. The results below show a great deal of promise for 2017. The data below is accurate.

In the topmost case, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between -31 and -37.5 and it was a also a system favorite on my site, picking the opponent to cover produced a 73.33% winning pct.

In the second and third cases, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between the ranges posted above and it was also a system favorite on my site, picking the favorite to cover produced 72.38% and 78.31% respectively. The majority of games were posted in the -1 to -9.5 bracket.

In the final case, if the spread was an oddsmaker underdog between +24 and +35 and the underdog was considered a system favorite on my site (contradicting the oddsmaker), picking the underdog to cover produced a 77.78% result.

The overall number of games for the past two years that fit the criteria was 548 games. 412 won, 125 lost, 11 pushed. The overall winpct was 76.72%. If using a \$100 game wager per game as a flat bet per game, discounting the pushes (since no money would be won or lost), \$53,700 would have been wagered. The total gains would be \$37,080 and the total losses would be \$12,500. The net gains would be \$24,580.

The goal this year is to use a similar wagering structure and ATS criteria. However, I'm still working through all of the losses to find any correlating trends that worked against the system. My goal is to produce a 3-5% additive value to the current results.

The ATS calculations for all other markers showed little to no promise as providing an edge when comparing them against both systems. Therefore, those ATS markers are not posted.

These are for College Only. I'll post the NFL results by next weekend.

JoelDeze
• Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
May 10th, 2017 at 3:00:38 AM permalink
I was describing the breakdown example of the ML AI, not the ATS. 78% is the base probability for all ML scenarios the AI resolves.

ATS is much more complicated. What I want to see when I look at ATS is the following:

Breakdown comparison for each team by scenario.

If Team A is an power 5 team and an oddsmaker favorite playing at home against another power 5 team. If the ATS is -19.5 as an example -

What is the probability for Team A as a favorite?
What is the probability for Team A as a home team?
What is the probability for Team A against a P5 opponent?
What is the probability for Team A where a cover scenario is -19.5 or greater?
What is the historical cover scenario probability for a P5 vs P5 playing at home as a -19.5 favorite?

The same probability is shown for the opponent as well.

Additionally, I want to see the points avg for each scenario above or below the cover margin for each team.

Now I have a basic understanding of which team has shown a true advantage in this match-up.

Lastly, line movement has to be factored in as well.

Will this relationship help me win more on the ATS? It will be tested and adjusted. I won't assume anything at this point. Neither should you.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
bazooooka
• Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
May 10th, 2017 at 3:49:28 AM permalink
Joel,

I get your logic on the ML betting scenarios and if you can really pick near 80%, and get lines better than -350, then you can make a few nickles.

However, you clearly talked about ATS "cover" in the post (see below). Have you found correlations between your system picks and line covers?

I ask since picking winners in NCAA football is often easy. But picking ATS winners and beating the vig is a whole different story.

What has your backtests shown you? Seems like all the data work you do wouldn't be worth it just for betting ML favs whenever you find line value. Now, if you can pick ATS winners at 55-60% then you'd really have something. Historically how well have you done and are you going to post/track your picks going forward?

>>
>>
In the topmost case, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between -31 and -37.5 and it was a also a system favorite on my site, picking the opponent to ""cover"" produced a 73.33% winning pct.

In the second and third cases, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between the ranges posted above and it was also a system favorite on my site, picking the favorite to ""cover"" produced 72.38% and 78.31% respectively. The majority of games were posted in the -1 to -9.5 bracket.

In the final case, if the spread was an oddsmaker underdog between +24 and +35 and the underdog was considered a system favorite on my site (contradicting the oddsmaker), picking the underdog to ""cover"" produced a 77.78% result.