Gonzaga #1 NCAAB For Real?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/sports/ncaabasketball/gonzaga-bulldogs-number-1-unbeaten-associated-press-poll.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fsports&action=click&contentCollection=sports®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront
Quote: charlestfullerYou are right that no one really expects them to make a Final 4
There is no team this year that anyone should 'expect' to make the final four. No team will be a greater than 50% chance to win their 16 team bracket. Gonzaga might be the highest at 30% or so. They as the overall number one seed in the country will have to play no team higher than the overall number 8 seed, who will be the 'worst' of the 4 number 2 seeds.
Quote: SOOPOOThere is no team this year that anyone should 'expect' to make the final four. No team will be a greater than 50% chance to win their 16 team bracket. Gonzaga might be the highest at 30% or so. They as the overall number one seed in the country will have to play no team higher than the overall number 8 seed, who will be the 'worst' of the 4 number 2 seeds.
Well as you can see when they did the "first early reveal ever" of the top 16 tournament seeds if March Madness started today, Gonzaga was given the #4 overall seed despite being ranked number one in AP and the only undefeated team. But if I was placing money on which team is the least likely to make the final 4 between Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, and Gonzaga, it would be Gonzaga. Despite all the great seasons they have had in the past 5-10 years, they have never made a Final 4....
Quote: SOOPOOThere is no team this year that anyone should 'expect' to make the final four. No team will be a greater than 50% chance to win their 16 team bracket. Gonzaga might be the highest at 30% or so. They as the overall number one seed in the country will have to play no team higher than the overall number 8 seed, who will be the 'worst' of the 4 number 2 seeds.
That's not how it works. The worst rated two seed is not necessarily placed with the #1 overall seed.
As you can see from the early reveal, that is quite clear. Villanova was rated the #1 overall seed, and placed with the third rated number 2 seed, Louisville.
Oh, and there will be at least one #1 seed that is less than +230 (your equated 30% chance) to win their region.
Quote: SM777That's not how it works. The worst rated two seed is not necessarily placed with the #1 overall seed.
As you can see from the early reveal, that is quite clear. Villanova was rated the #1 overall seed, and placed with the third rated number 2 seed, Louisville.
Oh, and there will be at least one #1 seed that is less than +230 (your equated 30% chance) to win their region.
They 'try' and place overall seed 5 with overall seed 4, but it is not guaranteed.
My saying Gonzaga as number 1 overall was before they lost a game. They dropped to 4 with that loss.
Which #1 seed is better than 30% chance to make final 4? None to me.....
Quote: SOOPOOThey 'try' and place overall seed 5 with overall seed 4, but it is not guaranteed.
My saying Gonzaga as number 1 overall was before they lost a game. They dropped to 4 with that loss.
Which #1 seed is better than 30% chance to make final 4? None to me.....
I'm aware of how it works. It appears that you weren't.
Literally every region has a team at 30% or higher to make the Final Four. UNC +120, Kansas +215, Gonzaga +160, and Villanova +190. +233 equates a win percentage of 30%. So, any team with a line lower than +230 means their "chance" of making the Final Four is greater than 30%.
UNC at +120 equates to a 45% to win their region AKA make the Final Four.
Quote: SM777I'm aware of how it works. It appears that you weren't.
Literally every region has a team at 30% or higher to make the Final Four. UNC +120, Kansas +215, Gonzaga +160, and Villanova +190. +233 equates a win percentage of 30%. So, any team with a line lower than +230 means their "chance" of making the Final Four is greater than 30%.
UNC at +120 equates to a 45% to win their region AKA make the Final Four.
I was quite aware of 'how it works'. I am just surprised at the odds you quote. I would take all non UNC teams in their region laying 12-10 in a heartbeat. And Gonzaga only +160?
You of course know that with the spread built in Kansas plus 215 really equates to a less than 30% chance to win? The lines are not meant to be fair, they have a built in vig. Kind of like when an MMA favorite is -120 and the underdog is -105.
Quote: SOOPOOI was quite aware of 'how it works'. I am just surprised at the odds you quote. I would take all non UNC teams in their region laying 12-10 in a heartbeat. And Gonzaga only +160?
You of course know that with the spread built in Kansas plus 215 really equates to a less than 30% chance to win? The lines are not meant to be fair, they have a built in vig. Kind of like when an MMA favorite is -120 and the underdog is -105.
This is copy and pasted from your previous post in here: "They as the overall number one seed in the country will have to play no team higher than the overall number 8 seed, who will be the 'worst' of the 4 number 2 seeds."
That's not how it works.
The lines quoted are all 10cents worse than what Pinnacle was offering as the post was made. I'm aware how sports betting works as well, and if you're betting at a book that is using -120 and -105 on the same fight, you need to find a new book.
Quote: SOOPOOWhich #1 seed is better than 30% chance to make final 4? None to me.....
Villanova and Gonzaga for sure have a better than 30% chance. And I say North Carolina has a better than 40% chance. Care to bet on any of those teams at those odds?
#1 seed Gonzaga to win the West region = +150 = 40% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed Villanova to win the East region = +160 = 38.5% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed North Carolina to win the South region = EVEN money = 50% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed Kansas to win the Midwest region = +175 = 36% chance to make the Final Four
Literally EVERY #1 seed has a minimum of a 36% chance to make the Final Four.....
Quote: SM777Current lines at Westgate as of the moment this post is submitted:
#1 seed Gonzaga to win the West region = +150 = 40% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed Villanova to win the East region = +160 = 38.5% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed North Carolina to win the South region = EVEN money = 50% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed Kansas to win the Midwest region = +175 = 36% chance to make the Final Four
If the odds the sportsbook is offering is the same as the odds of the event happening, that would mean they are making zero revenue (and must be losing quite a bit of money by paying for employees and other expenses). Somehow I doubt that is true
Quote: TomGIf the odds the sportsbook is offering is the same as the odds of the event happening, that would mean they are making zero revenue (and must be losing quite a bit of money by paying for employees and other expenses). Somehow I doubt that is true
I get it. I worked behind the counter making numbers and managing risk for over 5 years. There's a built in advantage. Take those numbers, add in 25cents to each number for your juice, and you'll still have all four #1 seeds with a greater than 30% chance to make the Final Four.
Better yet, use Pinnacle's (the most generous accessible offshore) numbers which I quoted earlier, and you'll still have every #1 seed over 30% to make the Final Four.
"If the odds the sportsbook is offering is the same as the odds of the EVENT HAPPENING,, that would mean they are making zero revenue (and must be losing quite a bit of money by paying for employees and other expenses). Somehow I doubt that is true."
Not really. The odds could reflect a perceived or real (actual money bet) bias and they could then be offering worse than fair odds (after considering the juice) on the event NOT HAPPENING.
