Pegasus Cup post positions

Threads: 46
Posts: 1318

Joined: Oct 13, 2013

January 23rd, 2017 at 7:20:33 PM permalink

Big purse!!! Why Chrome is 6-5?????? Is it like 12-1 exactor???

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 23rd, 2017 at 7:27:19 PM permalink

So much for it being a two horse race, things are not looking good for either. Sherman, from what Im hearing, is not coming off as confident, more like hopeful, worried.

Quote: Shermann, Sun-Sentinel
�If the horse is good enough, he�s going to perform,� Sherman said, adding about California Chrome, �He�s good enough, believe me when I tell you, he�s a once-of-a-lifetime horse. He�s the real McCoy.�

http://touch.sun-sentinel.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-92405741/

I'm guessing California Chrome will come up a lot by the time of the race, 2/1-3/1, and will probably not win. I'm thinking 2nd to fifth. Too bad, for whom I think of as a little boy, California Chrome being jinxed again. I want him to win, just don't think he will.

Arrogate, I'm also pessimistic about. Luck does not appear to be on his side so far either. It's a great looking horse too, just a beast like the Russian in the Rocky movie. He wont get too stuck Im guessing, so should become the favorite at race time. He might win, not sure.

I think I'll be mainly betting wps on a few medium odds horses, but not Keen Ice. Might change my mind, might think about Shaman, just because the track owner owns him. Keen Ice is getting credit I think because of his jockey having experience at the track.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 23rd, 2017 at 7:31:26 PM permalink

Quote: speedycrap
Big purse!!! Why Chrome is 6-5?????? Is it like 12-1 exactor???

The track morning line setter didn't factor in the post positions I dont think. He could have, but didn't.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 23rd, 2017 at 7:54:12 PM permalink

Arrogate will be the favorite. That horse is going to be tough. Strong feeling a horse will break down this race, not sure who. $20 I'll bet that if I get 499-1.

I am a robot.

lilredrooster

Threads: 241
Posts: 7189

Joined: May 8, 2015

Thanked by

January 24th, 2017 at 2:31:41 AM permalink

I doubt that the poor post positions for Chrome and Arrogate will have that great of an effect. It's a large field at 12 but it's not the KY Derby with 20. With poor post positions a lot depends on the skill of the jock who will try to adjust for that. Espinoza and Mike Smith are 2 great jocks. Just about everybody writing about the race is calling it a 2 horse race. I tend to agree. The ability of those 2 is way beyond that of the others. Always the possibility of a shocker. If there is one it will pay boxcars, especially in the exotics if one or both are out of the money. Both horses have won coming from behind but both also have the speed to command the early lead if their jock wants them to. Because of the poor PPs it is likely that both will bolt for the lead to avoid getting boxed in or blocked. It should be a great race. I think Espinoza underrated Arrogate in the Breeders Cup and got surprised when he came up on him late. He won't get surprised this time. My heart is with Chrome but my head tells me Arrogate has a small edge. Arrogate's setting the track record at the Travers Stakes, which goes back 147 years, is just too impressive for me to think that he can be beat if he's on his game. It was very surprising to me that the race was carded at 9 furlongs instead of the classic 10 furlong distance. Right now there is no rain in the forecast. Hope it stays that way. If the track is way off then to me the race just isn't as meaningful. The race will be televised by NBC sports group channel. It is, BTW, with a $12 mill purse, the richest race, the fattest purse in the history of racing throughout the world. Unless in ancient times some King had to fork over a Princess after losing a chariot race.

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 24, 2017

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

beachbumbabs

beachbumbabs

Threads: 101
Posts: 14268

Joined: May 21, 2013

January 24th, 2017 at 6:48:57 AM permalink

Mike Smith is worth a bet no matter the post position.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 24th, 2017 at 11:44:33 AM permalink

Im thinking my initial shock of post position was an overreaction, but it's definitely going to be tough on Chrome. This race with the big purse will definitely screw up lifetime earnings, might be structured wrongly. Fourth doesn't get more than fifth, which is a mistake, since people bet on those final finishes.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UV680TEphKQ

http://www.wsj.com/articles/california-chrome-is-an-outsider-in-the-12-million-pegasus-world-cup-1485294430

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 24th, 2017 at 5:37:12 PM permalink

Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Jan 24, 2017

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 24th, 2017 at 11:50:10 PM permalink

I'm not feeling Chrome doing as good as people think. One little problem with Arrogate, too good to be true, even though he is. I'd like to see some negs about him. Someone tell me if they think his late arrival, rainy California weather will bring him down. Every horse bettor has been banned here or left, usually I liked reading others opinions to learn from them, so this sucks. What top three if Arrogate and/or CC off the board to fill in trifectas, supers? Who is flying in from nowhere round the turn and down the stretch?

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 25th, 2017 at 12:54:44 AM permalink

Arrogate workout 1/21/17
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fP_ilqagjQQ

I am a robot.

lilredrooster

Threads: 241
Posts: 7189

Joined: May 8, 2015

January 25th, 2017 at 3:27:01 AM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
Arrogate workout 1/21/17
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fP_ilqagjQQ

here's chrome's workout. what a beautiful horse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTuPeDQMEYo

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

speedycrap

Threads: 46
Posts: 1318

Joined: Oct 13, 2013

Thanked by

January 25th, 2017 at 5:59:48 AM permalink

I watched the replay of the Classic and Travers. The running style and post positions favur greatly for Arrogate.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 25th, 2017 at 12:06:47 PM permalink

I'm almost thinking California Chrome won't even come in 4th because of that post position. It's true he doesn't do well if not in the lead. Keen Ice is hard to believe in, but seeing him beat American Pharoah, you give him a chance. Neolithic is tempting to do well. Noble bird, nobody has convinced me he can hang in the whole race, though they count on him to be an early speed horse maybe. They say he is unreliable from the gate. Shaman ghost, I'm not impressed with just from watching his wins. It's tough for me to believe in his shot seeing him win boring races. You see him in the pack with many horses and he has won by a bit barely over the others. Eragon, foreign horse, bad post, not feeling it.

That's what the posts do in this race, big stat, 6% of horses win from posts 10-12 in this race. Dont know how bad it affects placement past that, but California Chrome has to run 1.5 miles when all the rest run 1.125. One thing for sure, a $7,000,000 purse is going to make it interesting. These long odds as well. The race will not be like any other.

I do not give 2, 5, 6, 8 any credit. 10 I dont know, might have a shot for third or fourth, but probably not.

I am a robot.

lilredrooster

Threads: 241
Posts: 7189

Joined: May 8, 2015

January 25th, 2017 at 12:21:13 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle ..........Chrome has to run 1.5 miles when all the rest run 1.125. [/q

He's not going to lose anywhere near that amount of ground. Espinoza is going to shoot him to the lead right out of the gate. He has speed. He won't be wide on the turns. Those stats you quoted re post position don't apply to him. He's a super horse. One in a million.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 25, 2017

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 25th, 2017 at 3:19:59 PM permalink

I'm betting against chrome by betting on arrogate and some other possibilities. Just think Chrome wont have the lead and he'll quit down the stretch. He likes the lead and wont have it. At some point he'll be four wide or worse and it's going to wear on him. That's the race I imagine.

Plus the other horses will have something to say about who does what, it's not going to be friendly.

I am a robot.

ontariodealer

Threads: 7
Posts: 999

Joined: Aug 5, 2013

Thanked by

January 25th, 2017 at 4:18:32 PM permalink

winning horseplayers find the value plays, not the two likeliest horses every race....arrogate as a 4 yr old actually has room to improve, while CC is what he is and the post wont help. The value will be in arrogate controlling the race and winning with CC missing. If you think they'll run 1-2, skip the race,

get second you pig

beachbumbabs

beachbumbabs

Threads: 101
Posts: 14268

Joined: May 21, 2013

Thanked by

January 25th, 2017 at 4:33:51 PM permalink

Saw the final workout with commentary (posted by Gulfstream Park) and they said it's a 12 million dollar purse, not 7. They're claiming it's the most ever.

Horses, I think I'm going to wheel Arrogate, Cali Chrome, Keen Ice, and one other horse for the Trifecta. Jmho, not claiming any expertise.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

monet0412

monet0412

Threads: 9
Posts: 627

Joined: Feb 18, 2016

Thanked by

January 25th, 2017 at 4:47:26 PM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
Horses, I think I'm going to wheel

"The 5 horse is a mortal lock and I'm gonna wheel him!!"

We are betting everything we have on Charity's hot little nose.
What is she sick or something?
(disgusted look)
Besides... I only have 10 bucks!
Not to worry! I have $100 stashed away for a day like this.
Yeah, well I'm not you.
Lucky me!
Yeaaaah (both smile)

Trotter! You swore off gambling!!
This isn't gambling!! This would not be gambling! Gambling involves risk! It involves chance! This is not gambling! This is taking advantage of an extraordinary business opportunity!!

I agree, even when you know you don't really know.
How'd you like that photo???
TENSE!!

The reason I like this "Faith Healer" is cause my jockeys got a grand riding on him.
Yeah and the last grand this jockey seen was The Grand Canyon!

Last edited by: monet0412 on Jan 25, 2017

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 25th, 2017 at 6:06:02 PM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
Saw the final workout with commentary (posted by Gulfstream Park) and they said it's a 12 million dollar purse, not 7. They're claiming it's the most ever.

Horses, I think I'm going to wheel Arrogate, Cali Chrome, Keen Ice, and one other horse for the Trifecta. Jmho, not claiming any expertise.

I misspoke. First gets 7 million, 1.5 place, 750,000 show, 250,000 all the others. All entrants share tv money, which is going to be good money, plus being at the gate, entitled to purchase next year. I dont know how to bet it, if I screw up by one horse, no money. Might just place win place and show bets on a few. Always happens one scrub gets in there you'd never predict. My scrubs would be 2, 6, 8, 10, or 11. Got the feeling scrub spoiler 8, but can't justify it. He's a replacement horse, maybe that's why. Maybe 11, might not be a bad horse, who knows how it'll play out.

I am a robot.

lilredrooster

Threads: 241
Posts: 7189

Joined: May 8, 2015

Thanked by

January 25th, 2017 at 6:11:55 PM permalink

I think there's no value in the race but it will be very fun to watch. Keying Arrogate on top of a couple of shots is a nice idea but all of the shots are so iffy.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 25th, 2017 at 6:49:14 PM permalink

Quote: monet0412
"The 5 horse is a mortal lock and I'm gonna wheel him!!"

We are betting everything we have on Charity's hot little nose.
What is she sick or something?
(disgusted look)
Besides... I only have 10 bucks!
Not to worry! I have $100 stashed away for a day like this.
Yeah, well I'm not you.
Lucky me!
Yeaaaah (both smile)

Trotter! You swore off gambling!!
This isn't gambling!! This would not be gambling! Gambling involves risk! It involves chance! This is not gambling! This is taking advantage of an extraordinary business opportunity!!

I agree, even when you know you don't really know.
How'd you like that photo???
TENSE!!

The reason I like this "Faith Healer" is cause my jockeys got a grand riding on him.
Yeah and the last grand this jockey seen was The Grand Canyon!

They want $2.99 to watch a movie almost 30 years old on YouTube. Probably didn't even cost $2.99 to see Let It Ride in 1989.

I am a robot.

ontariodealer

Threads: 7
Posts: 999

Joined: Aug 5, 2013

Thanked by

January 25th, 2017 at 6:55:42 PM permalink

most amazing thing to me is that it is 100 bucks a pop to get in......bad precedent to set.....look out derby and bc

get second you pig

monet0412

monet0412

Threads: 9
Posts: 627

Joined: Feb 18, 2016

January 25th, 2017 at 8:46:05 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
They want $2.99 to watch a movie almost 30 years old on YouTube. Probably didn't even cost $2.99 to see Let It Ride in 1989.

Anyone that wants "Let It Ride" or the many other obscure gambling DVDs that I own.... I would be more than willing to burn them a copy or send the ripped file. Of course this is highly unethical and I do not condone nor endorse such action! Shipping may cost more than $2.99 and one can always figure out how to get movies on the line for free. Heck... the first time I burnt "Let It Ride"... I got the free trial of Netflix and burnt it but I also claimed that I never got the DVD in the mail and they were happy to oblige. Years passed and I've bought a few copies off of Amazon.

lilredrooster

Threads: 241
Posts: 7189

Joined: May 8, 2015

January 26th, 2017 at 4:48:18 AM permalink

Because of her tremendous popularity Songbird was unrealistically bet down to just above even money in the Breeders Cup Distaff and the obviously stronger Beholder and Stellar Wind were let go at $3.30/1 and 5/2 to win creating value there IMO. Chrome is much more popular with the fans than Arrogate and it's Chrome's swan song. Could something like that happen here? Probably not. The race is not in California. After Songbird's game 2nd she has to be considered the equal of Beholder; but before the race her speed figures and quality of competition were not equal to those other two.

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 26, 2017

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 26th, 2017 at 5:03:02 PM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
Because of her tremendous popularity Songbird was unrealistically bet down to just above even money in the Breeders Cup Distaff and the obviously stronger Beholder and Stellar Wind were let go at $3.30/1 and 5/2 to win creating value there IMO. Chrome is much more popular with the fans than Arrogate and it's Chrome's swan song. Could something like that happen here? Probably not. The race is not in California. After Songbird's game 2nd she has to be considered the equal of Beholder; but before the race her speed figures and quality of competition were not equal to those other two.

Chrome fans are everywhere. Heard today the odds setter said Chrome would be even money if not on post 12. More people would bet on him hearing he is the favorite than not, and probably not bet on Arrogate. I just can't see CC winning there. The more I think of it, I'd say bet Artogate heavy, then a little on the rest just in case, and all exacta picks including Arrogate winning, because my main assumption is Chrome will not win. Unfortunately I'll probably be missing out on this opportunity for all practical purposes, because guess,what, I gamble too much already. Watch I'll probably hit a drawing, $500 free play after the race. If before it's on.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 26th, 2017 at 5:04:22 PM permalink

Quote: monet0412
Anyone that wants "Let It Ride" or the many other obscure gambling DVDs that I own.... I would be more than willing to burn them a copy or send the ripped file. Of course this is highly unethical and I do not condone nor endorse such action! Shipping may cost more than $2.99 and one can always figure out how to get movies on the line for free. Heck... the first time I burnt "Let It Ride"... I got the free trial of Netflix and burnt it but I also claimed that I never got the DVD in the mail and they were happy to oblige. Years passed and I've bought a few copies off of Amazon.

Put it on YouTube, set private, and share the link with me.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 26th, 2017 at 10:37:10 PM permalink

Just saw Breaking Lucky the ten horse on tvg and he was looking gooood just based on appearance. Great is more like it. Shaman horse looked good, but not great. They've said some good things about him though. Breaking lucky was in direct sunlight, but even Simon mentioned he looked fantastic.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 27th, 2017 at 1:27:49 AM permalink

Watching the Travers, 10 furlongs compared to 9 for the Pegasus, when does Arrogate really separate?

Travers 2016

That's the problem, his strength comes with distance I think. Still great, but not as superior as believed possibly. He might win, but I'm losing a little faith. Maybe there will be an upset. Keen schmeen ice I don't believe. If it's any of them, you can't predict it.

I am a robot.

lilredrooster

Threads: 241
Posts: 7189

Joined: May 8, 2015

Thanked by

January 27th, 2017 at 2:52:03 AM permalink

Arrogate was recently named and celebrated by Longines as the greatest racehorse in the world. Chrome got 2nd.
Most of the turf writers are saying Chrome won't win. I'm not so sure about that. Chrome won the Dubai Cup from post 11 and beat the world's top horses from Japan, France, Ireland and Australia. I wouldn't want to disrespect this great horse and say he won't win. Arrogate might have an edge but it's not a big one.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219331/arrogate-celebrated-as-longines-worlds-best-racehorse

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 27, 2017

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

ontariodealer

Threads: 7
Posts: 999

Joined: Aug 5, 2013

Thanked by

January 27th, 2017 at 7:36:17 PM permalink

neolythic is the 3....using my 4 year olds willget better theory i'm playing supers.

1/3/a/a
1/a/3/a

and hoping CC misses.

get second you pig

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 27th, 2017 at 8:44:04 PM permalink

Quote: ontariodealer
neolythic is the 3....using my 4 year olds willget better theory i'm playing supers.

1/3/a/a
1/a/3/a

and hoping CC misses.

Seems sound. Neolythic could even win. Something like that could happen in a 12 horse field. I've lost my confidence in Arrogate a little. Not sure any more.

I still believe Arrogate will win, just sense a blind spot.

I am a robot.

speedycrap

Threads: 46
Posts: 1318

Joined: Oct 13, 2013

January 28th, 2017 at 2:50:15 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
Seems sound. Neolythic could even win. Something like that could happen in a 12 horse field. I've lost my confidence in Arrogate a little. Not sure any more.

I still believe Arrogate will win, just sense a blind spot.

Congrat. Ontariodealer. Nice and juicy super.

lilredrooster

Threads: 241
Posts: 7189

Joined: May 8, 2015

January 28th, 2017 at 2:51:14 PM permalink

Quote: ontariodealer
neolythic is the 3....using my 4 year olds willget better theory i'm playing supers.

1/3/a/a
1/a/3/a

and hoping CC misses.

CONGRATULATIONS BUDDY. YOU WON A LOT!!!!!!! NICE JOB.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

speedycrap

Threads: 46
Posts: 1318

Joined: Oct 13, 2013

January 28th, 2017 at 2:59:50 PM permalink

1-7-3-9 pays $460/$1 bet

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 28th, 2017 at 6:38:49 PM permalink

I played 1,3/1,3,7,10/3,7,10, 1/3,7,10/3,7,10,12, and super small 1/3/9. Im proud I was on the money about Chrome and the key horses. Not proud I couldn't exploit the race like I wanted. My friend was mad he was too scared to bet with me. Next time I'll no doubt be wrong. This was an easy race to call. Anyone who bet against me, the rest of the country thanks you.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 28th, 2017 at 7:26:43 PM permalink

Just watched the race again from home, able to see it better, I felt so much pity for Chrome. Post position would have made a difference I don't care what people say. He was blocked by two horses long the way. Maybe that's him being off not being able to overpower them and get by. First was breaking lucky, then war story coming wide around the turn. Maybe California chrome is too smart to try when he's beat too bad.
I think in better position, he would have placed, and a win, unlikely. He likes the lead and could never get it.

Knew keen Ice was third best tops, figured so. My top horses after arrogate were 3,7,10, not sure what happened to breaking lucky. Next year will be much harder, think these four(1,3,7,10) will be back again. Hopefully some others will enter with a chance. None of them will unless Arrogate gets outside post, but Id probably bet on him there at this point.

He was...
.
.

.

much the best.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 28th, 2017 at 7:41:17 PM permalink

I'm wondering if I was just lucky to presume CC would do so badly. I said I didn't think he would come in the money possibly and that's what happened. Was he just worn out and discouraged or was he off like they say? Should they have taken his blinkers off?

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 28th, 2017 at 7:57:43 PM permalink

Arrogate might be one of the best horses ever. I didn't post about it, but Mike Smith mentioned his lung capacity and how great it is and how little he gets tired. Arrogate only needs one breath to recover from a race Mike Smith says. There was a horse like that 100 years ago, they didn't know why until he died and had an autopsy. Think it's in this videoHis anatomy was just a freak, he never got tired.

I am a robot.

ontariodealer

Threads: 7
Posts: 999

Joined: Aug 5, 2013

January 28th, 2017 at 8:28:47 PM permalink

arrogate is a monster.....I was a little pissed at the price of the super,,,,,if I played tri's, would have got more

get second you pig

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 28th, 2017 at 8:55:34 PM permalink

Quote: ontariodealer
arrogate is a monster.....I was a little pissed at the price of the super,,,,,if I played tri's, would have got more

and I was mad I didn't play a super just because I would have gotten them. Didn't even think this race was a match worth betting on a week ago. Then it turned into a seven horse race with five dead money horses running with them(2,5,6,8,11). I only bet trifecta because didn't have the money to play them all. Would have done exactas and supers, but my neg gambling caught up with me. It was just lucky this was an easy race to pick top horses, maybe that's why it didn't pay as much. Most sharps knew about 3,7 and banked on Arrogate. It was pretty clear to me 9 could not really do too bad, but could not do too well. The joke horses were jokes and lucky Chrome couldn't run or you could forget about War Story. I didn't play a super, but would have had Chrome third and fourth for sure if I did. Fourth would have been 5,6,8, maybe 11. Paul Lo Duca convinced me pretty well it would be last and the barn interview really put me there already. It was unprepared and got here late. I should have won thousands and thousands today, it will be a long time until such a scenario repeats itself. Might not for years until it's time for Arrogate to go down. It's going to be more competitive next year in the Pegasus no doubt about it, and next year might be a turf race. It will be much harder to bet.

I am a robot.

ontariodealer

Threads: 7
Posts: 999

Joined: Aug 5, 2013

Thanked by

January 28th, 2017 at 10:46:46 PM permalink

well as we discussed earlier, there was not a lot of value in the play....smart money probably passed the race...I make money in these situations by downgrading the older horses (as decliners) and upgrading the 4 yr olds (as room to improvers) got lucky this race.,,now on to mah valley on mon and tuesday

get second you pig

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 28th, 2017 at 10:47:10 PM permalink

Someone please tell me in advance the next time Breaking Lucky races. Any of the scrubs too besides prayer for relief. That's a good horse and will be interested in his next races.

I am a robot.

coilman

coilman

Threads: 140
Posts: 1161

Joined: Jan 29, 2012

Thanked by

January 28th, 2017 at 10:47:56 PM permalink

$41,000,0000 handle on the card?

Thats crazy money

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 28th, 2017 at 10:57:56 PM permalink

Quote: ontariodealer
well as we discussed earlier, there was not a lot of value in the play....smart money probably passed the race...I make money in these situations by downgrading the older horses (as decliners) and upgrading the 4 yr olds (as room to improvers) got lucky this race.,,now on to mah valley on mon and tuesday

I'm still learning. There isn't value in believing a second odds favorite will do terrible, half the horses have no chance, three horses are second best, one is reliably third or fourth best. This race was like having ESP, how is there no value. It's possible my beliefs were fantasies, that must be the thing. I spent days watching everything, listening to twenty people's opinions, saw every horse, heard about every horse, kept notes, made judgments. There was so much out there for one race. Me believing California Chrome would face much adversity and have trouble, was this wrong, a fallacy arriving at the right answer the wrong way.

I am a robot.

bobbartop

bobbartop

Threads: 133
Posts: 2597

Joined: Mar 15, 2016

Thanked by

January 28th, 2017 at 11:01:49 PM permalink

23.46 46.14 1:09.80

Strong interior fractions.

Arrogate is a machine.

'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.

lilredrooster

Threads: 241
Posts: 7189

Joined: May 8, 2015

Thanked by

January 29th, 2017 at 1:20:25 AM permalink

I'm not 100% sure how significant this is but the #7, Shaman's Ghost actually gained on Arrogate in the stretch. At the top of the stretch he trailed by 5.5 lengths and he finished back just 4.75 lengths. Arrogate wasn't being pushed but neither was Shaman's Ghost. Surprising and pretty impressive.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 29th, 2017 at 1:26:03 AM permalink

Quote: speedycrap
1-7-3-9 pays $460/$1 bet

1-7-3-9-5 paid $6300 $2 I think. Would have nailed that if I even knew such a bet existed. Always glossed over those things, paying attention to wps, ex, tris.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

January 29th, 2017 at 1:38:37 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
I'm not 100% sure how significant this is but the #7, Shaman's Ghost actually gained on Arrogate in the stretch. At the top of the stretch he trailed by 5.5 lengths and he finished back just 4.75 lengths. Arrogate wasn't being pushed but neither was Shaman's Ghost. Surprising and pretty impressive.

It seemed he was getting more mentions in the handicapping show and elsewhere on tvg. Caton Bredar, love her opinions, very insightful comments from her and she's very honest with lots of information. Love that lady. I wasn't impressed by his races he won, but was impressed by what I heard and saw on tvg. I certainly wasn't scared away from the horse. I originally believed the exotics would pay more if he placed and Neolithic showed, but that was probably not true. If he were to win, someone would have won $1,000,000 in the Pegasus sweepstakes.

Quote: This originally scared me away a little

1GoPro HERO5 Black

Arrogate

Coolmore

2Trip For 6 To The 6

Prayer for Relief

Rosedown Racing Stables

3$5,000 Flight Club Gift Card

Neolithic

Starlight Pegasus Partners

4Apple Watch 2

Noble Bird

Mack, Fostock and Broman

5$5,000 Ticketmaster Gift Card

War Story

Dan Schafer

6PlayStation 4 VR

War Envoy

Ruis Racing, LLC

7$1,000,000

Shaman Ghost

Adena Springs

8Phantom 4 Pro

Semper Fortis

Reddam Racing, LLC

9Samsung 78" 4K TV

Keen Ice

Ronald Frankel and Gerald Frankel

10Pioneer DJ Controller

Breaking Lucky

Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Randy Hill and E. Young

11Longines Watches

Eragon

Jim McIngvale

12Elby Bikes

California Chrome

California Chrome, LLC

As you can see, certain horses award junky prizes if they had won. I was given 8 and sis 2, so knew I was out as soon as I entered.

https://www.pegasusworldcup.com/win

I am a robot.

lilredrooster