billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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January 17th, 2017 at 1:19:02 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Why can't they win? Great offense and defense playing well. Gronk was their strength in first meet but he is out.

Fyi, I am from Pittsburgh so my pessimism says steelers will lose.



Don't they only lose AFC Championship games at home?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
fastXXXeddie
fastXXXeddie
Joined: Jan 10, 2017
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January 17th, 2017 at 2:33:59 PM permalink
People were VERY VERY sure Hillary was gonna win. If you don't know who the President elect is, just ask Mike.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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January 17th, 2017 at 3:11:19 PM permalink
Quote: fastXXXeddie

People were VERY VERY sure Hillary was gonna win. If you don't know who the President elect is, just ask Mike.




The fact that Mike made a wrong call with Hilary does not mean that his opinion has little value. You would have to look at a hundred or more bets in which a person had a strong opinion and analyze the results to see if his having a strong opinion is worth anything in the betting market.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
fastXXXeddie
fastXXXeddie
Joined: Jan 10, 2017
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January 17th, 2017 at 3:18:42 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

The fact that Mike made a wrong call with Hilary does not mean that his opinion has little value. You would have to look at a hundred or more bets in which a person had a strong opinion and analyze the results to see if his having a strong opinion is worth anything in the betting market.




Good idea. I will start researching no safety in a Super Bowl immediately
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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January 17th, 2017 at 4:36:08 PM permalink
Quote: fastXXXeddie

Good idea. I will start researching no safety in a Super Bowl immediately



Is it your point that nobody should ever have a strong opinion about a sports bet? That it is literally impossible to find an edge? That the line offered by the books is a 100% accurate true reflection of the probabilities involved on every single game offered? If that is what you are saying Billy Walters might disagree with you. And yeah I know he manipulates the lines. And yeah, I know I'm no Billy Walters. But I still believe I can once in a blue moon see something worthwhile.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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January 17th, 2017 at 5:15:09 PM permalink
Found a +6.5 this afternoon. Didn't last long, but we might see it again this week.

As of an hour ago you could also bet either -6 EV or +6 EV, essentially no vig for which ever side you liked. The books are expecting Patriots money so would be shading the line slightly toward the favorite, so I'll take the points.

Also played the under 61.5. Given that 41 and 51 are key numbers, have to believe 61 is also, even if we never remember seeing it before.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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January 17th, 2017 at 5:24:43 PM permalink
Quote: fastXXXeddie

Good idea. I will start researching no safety in a Super Bowl immediately



Cmon, Buzz. This is just rude

See ya next time.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
iamnomad
iamnomad
Joined: Nov 3, 2014
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January 17th, 2017 at 5:26:26 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I prefer betting against the money line at least with favorites and I saw the Pats at -240 at betonline.ag. Some might not like getting the reduced payout compared to the spread; a $100 bet will get you about $42 profit; but I consider it to be VERY VERY unlikely that the Steelers will beat the Pats. It looks like a really good bet to me.



I dunno who'll win. Just don't see much value in a moneyline Pats bet right now. If I felt strongly about a NE win I'd lay the points as long as it's 6 or less. In the 8 playoff games so far, straight-up winner has also covered, so the points haven't mattered at all.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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January 18th, 2017 at 2:24:51 AM permalink
Quote: iamnomad

I Just don't see much value in a moneyline Pats bet right now. In the 8 playoff games so far, straight-up winner has also covered, so the points haven't mattered at all.



The spread/money line results for the 8 previous playoff games don't have anything at all to do with this game. I'm not really betting the money line because of greater value. I would tend to believe that in the long run there is little difference in money won or lost which ever way you bet. I do it often with favorites out of personal preference. I'm not saying it's a better bet. But I don't think it's a worse one. And I would point out that the money line quote that I now see on betonline.ag is -240/+200. Using the Wiz's straight bet calculator I found the house edge to be only 3.77%. Against the spread the house edge is almost always 4.55%. If the Pats are up by 3 with 2 minutes left in the game on their own 40 yard line they're probably going to try and run out the clock. They probably won't try to score. Antonio Brown posted a video of the Steelers locker room after beating the Chiefs showing Rothlisberger and Tomlin calling the Pats names that would get them thrown off of this forum. Fuel poured on the fire.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/01/18/antonio-brown-apologizes-for-postgame-video-in-steelers-locker-room/?hpid=hp_no-name_hp-in-the-news%3Apage%2Fin-the-news&utm_term=.4bddca2174f8
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 18, 2017
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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January 18th, 2017 at 3:12:56 AM permalink
Can't give away enough points with them Pats

I hate myself for saying that
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous

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