Steelers vs. Patriots

Quote: GWAE

Why can't they win? Great offense and defense playing well. Gronk was their strength in first meet but he is out.

Fyi, I am from Pittsburgh so my pessimism says steelers will lose.

Don't they only lose AFC Championship games at home?

People were VERY VERY sure Hillary was gonna win. If you don't know who the President elect is, just ask Mike.

Quote: fastXXXeddie

People were VERY VERY sure Hillary was gonna win. If you don't know who the President elect is, just ask Mike.

The fact that Mike made a wrong call with Hilary does not mean that his opinion has little value. You would have to look at a hundred or more bets in which a person had a strong opinion and analyze the results to see if his having a strong opinion is worth anything in the betting market.

Quote: lilredrooster

The fact that Mike made a wrong call with Hilary does not mean that his opinion has little value. You would have to look at a hundred or more bets in which a person had a strong opinion and analyze the results to see if his having a strong opinion is worth anything in the betting market.

Good idea. I will start researching no safety in a Super Bowl immediately

Quote: fastXXXeddie

Good idea. I will start researching no safety in a Super Bowl immediately

Is it your point that nobody should ever have a strong opinion about a sports bet? That it is literally impossible to find an edge? That the line offered by the books is a 100% accurate true reflection of the probabilities involved on every single game offered? If that is what you are saying Billy Walters might disagree with you. And yeah I know he manipulates the lines. And yeah, I know I'm no Billy Walters. But I still believe I can once in a blue moon see something worthwhile.

Found a +6.5 this afternoon. Didn't last long, but we might see it again this week.

As of an hour ago you could also bet either -6 EV or +6 EV, essentially no vig for which ever side you liked. The books are expecting Patriots money so would be shading the line slightly toward the favorite, so I'll take the points.

Also played the under 61.5. Given that 41 and 51 are key numbers, have to believe 61 is also, even if we never remember seeing it before.

Quote: fastXXXeddie

Good idea. I will start researching no safety in a Super Bowl immediately

Cmon, Buzz. This is just rude

See ya next time.

Quote: lilredrooster

I prefer betting against the money line at least with favorites and I saw the Pats at -240 at betonline.ag. Some might not like getting the reduced payout compared to the spread; a $100 bet will get you about $42 profit; but I consider it to be VERY VERY unlikely that the Steelers will beat the Pats. It looks like a really good bet to me.

I dunno who'll win. Just don't see much value in a moneyline Pats bet right now. If I felt strongly about a NE win I'd lay the points as long as it's 6 or less. In the 8 playoff games so far, straight-up winner has also covered, so the points haven't mattered at all.

Quote: iamnomad

I Just don't see much value in a moneyline Pats bet right now. In the 8 playoff games so far, straight-up winner has also covered, so the points haven't mattered at all.

The spread/money line results for the 8 previous playoff games don't have anything at all to do with this game. I'm not really betting the money line because of greater value. I would tend to believe that in the long run there is little difference in money won or lost which ever way you bet. I do it often with favorites out of personal preference. I'm not saying it's a better bet. But I don't think it's a worse one. And I would point out that the money line quote that I now see on betonline.ag is -240/+200. Using the Wiz's straight bet calculator I found the house edge to be only 3.77%. Against the spread the house edge is almost always 4.55%. If the Pats are up by 3 with 2 minutes left in the game on their own 40 yard line they're probably going to try and run out the clock. They probably won't try to score. Antonio Brown posted a video of the Steelers locker room after beating the Chiefs showing Rothlisberger and Tomlin calling the Pats names that would get them thrown off of this forum. Fuel poured on the fire.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/01/18/antonio-brown-apologizes-for-postgame-video-in-steelers-locker-room/?hpid=hp_no-name_hp-in-the-news%3Apage%2Fin-the-news&utm_term=.4bddca2174f8

Can't give away enough points with them Pats

I hate myself for saying that