Steelers vs. Patriots
Quote: lilredroosterI prefer betting against the money line at least with favorites and I saw the Pats at -240 at betonline.ag. Some might not like getting the reduced payout compared to the spread; a $100 bet will get you about $42 profit; but I consider it to be VERY VERY unlikely that the Steelers will beat the Pats. It looks like a really good bet to me.
Why can't they win? Great offense and defense playing well. Gronk was their strength in first meet but he is out.
Fyi, I am from Pittsburgh so my pessimism says steelers will lose.
Quote: GWAEWhy can't they win? Great offense and defense playing well. Gronk was their strength in first meet but he is out.
Fyi, I am from Pittsburgh so my pessimism says steelers will lose.
I grew up in Youngwood and Greensburg PA. Youngwood is where I lost all my paper route money and the companies money on a Las Vegas night at the Firehall when I was 11. Shoulda demanded all my money back since they let me gamble at that age, but I knew the score and I wasn't crying.
I want the Steelers to win but the Patriots have their number. It might be close but I can't see Brady losing to that defense and Antonio Brown is more concerned with LiveVideo posts. Tomlin just likes to cry and call the Patriots names when they lose to them. I know 6 field goals won't be good enough.
it's a very early line on the Pats game. I expect anybody waiting to bet near game time on the Pats will get a worse deal.
Quote: ncfatcatBeing from the Carolinas and seeing the Falcons 2x a year, their D Line is a lot better than Dallas and they're used to containing Newton and WInston.
They're not playing Dallas. They're playing Green Bay. It's sometimes useful to know who's playing before making a bet. But for many it really doesn't matter; it won't effect their bottom line.
Quote: lilredroosterThey're not playing Dallas. They're playing Green Bay. It's sometimes useful to know who's playing before making a bet. But for many it really doesn't matter; it won't effect their bottom line.
He's contrasting Green Bay playing Dallas vs. playing Atlanta.
Quote: beachbumbabsHe's contrasting Green Bay playing Dallas vs. playing Atlanta.
yeah, I got that too late. Sorry, ncfatcat.
Quote: fastXXXeddie" very, very, unlikely" I doubt that. Pats will be 6 pt favorite at best, not 16! Seems like wishful thinking to me. What do you know that linemakers don't ?
I don't know anything that line makers don't. I have an opinion, which is what everybody who makes a sports bet has unless they just want to bet on their favorite team.I don't have a strong opinion on an NFL game very often. I could be wrong. But I'm not going to apologize for expressing an opinion which is what a great many on this site do. The line was adjusted by 3 points for the Pats being at home. Which means that on a neutral field the line considers the Pats to be only 2.5 points better than the Steelers which means the two teams are very close in ability. To say that the Steelers are very close to the Pats in ability, is to me, a stretch. The Pats won their last 4 games by 18, 21, 38 and 13. The Steelers won their last 4 games by 2, 18, 3 and 4.
Quote: GWAEWhy can't they win? Great offense and defense playing well. Gronk was their strength in first meet but he is out.
Fyi, I am from Pittsburgh so my pessimism says steelers will lose.
Don't they only lose AFC Championship games at home?
Quote: fastXXXeddiePeople were VERY VERY sure Hillary was gonna win. If you don't know who the President elect is, just ask Mike.
The fact that Mike made a wrong call with Hilary does not mean that his opinion has little value. You would have to look at a hundred or more bets in which a person had a strong opinion and analyze the results to see if his having a strong opinion is worth anything in the betting market.
Quote: lilredroosterThe fact that Mike made a wrong call with Hilary does not mean that his opinion has little value. You would have to look at a hundred or more bets in which a person had a strong opinion and analyze the results to see if his having a strong opinion is worth anything in the betting market.
Good idea. I will start researching no safety in a Super Bowl immediately
Quote: fastXXXeddieGood idea. I will start researching no safety in a Super Bowl immediately
Is it your point that nobody should ever have a strong opinion about a sports bet? That it is literally impossible to find an edge? That the line offered by the books is a 100% accurate true reflection of the probabilities involved on every single game offered? If that is what you are saying Billy Walters might disagree with you. And yeah I know he manipulates the lines. And yeah, I know I'm no Billy Walters. But I still believe I can once in a blue moon see something worthwhile.
As of an hour ago you could also bet either -6 EV or +6 EV, essentially no vig for which ever side you liked. The books are expecting Patriots money so would be shading the line slightly toward the favorite, so I'll take the points.
Also played the under 61.5. Given that 41 and 51 are key numbers, have to believe 61 is also, even if we never remember seeing it before.
Quote: fastXXXeddieGood idea. I will start researching no safety in a Super Bowl immediately
Cmon, Buzz. This is just rude
See ya next time.
Quote: lilredroosterI prefer betting against the money line at least with favorites and I saw the Pats at -240 at betonline.ag. Some might not like getting the reduced payout compared to the spread; a $100 bet will get you about $42 profit; but I consider it to be VERY VERY unlikely that the Steelers will beat the Pats. It looks like a really good bet to me.
I dunno who'll win. Just don't see much value in a moneyline Pats bet right now. If I felt strongly about a NE win I'd lay the points as long as it's 6 or less. In the 8 playoff games so far, straight-up winner has also covered, so the points haven't mattered at all.
Quote: iamnomadI Just don't see much value in a moneyline Pats bet right now. In the 8 playoff games so far, straight-up winner has also covered, so the points haven't mattered at all.
The spread/money line results for the 8 previous playoff games don't have anything at all to do with this game. I'm not really betting the money line because of greater value. I would tend to believe that in the long run there is little difference in money won or lost which ever way you bet. I do it often with favorites out of personal preference. I'm not saying it's a better bet. But I don't think it's a worse one. And I would point out that the money line quote that I now see on betonline.ag is -240/+200. Using the Wiz's straight bet calculator I found the house edge to be only 3.77%. Against the spread the house edge is almost always 4.55%. If the Pats are up by 3 with 2 minutes left in the game on their own 40 yard line they're probably going to try and run out the clock. They probably won't try to score. Antonio Brown posted a video of the Steelers locker room after beating the Chiefs showing Rothlisberger and Tomlin calling the Pats names that would get them thrown off of this forum. Fuel poured on the fire.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/01/18/antonio-brown-apologizes-for-postgame-video-in-steelers-locker-room/?hpid=hp_no-name_hp-in-the-news%3Apage%2Fin-the-news&utm_term=.4bddca2174f8
I hate myself for saying that
Quote: TomG
Also played the under 61.5. Given that 41 and 51 are key numbers, have to believe 61 is also, even if we never remember seeing it before.
There was a Packer game a few years ago that had a 61 total.
