2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders
May 25th, 2017 at 5:59:15 PM
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Yes, that's right. Woodbine is another that does that.Quote: lilredroostercorrect me if i'm wrong Dead, but NYRA tracks are among very few if there are any others who break the change down to the dime instead of the 20 cent point. i.e. a place bet on a favorite might pay $3.90 whereas at most if not all other tracks it would pay $3.80. if a player bets favorites or place and show over time this can amount to a significant difference.
W/P/S Results @WO - Race 1 Sun Mon 5/22/17:
Case in Point......... $8.10 $4.70 $3.40
D's Double Eagle.. -------- $5.60 $3.50
Sparklin Bright ...... -------- ------- $5.30
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 25, 2017
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 26th, 2017 at 3:37:39 AM
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I foresee not having very strong opinions for the Belmont, but to be determined. The Preakness and Pegasus were very much the same, judge top two, judge a few below, it's over. Distance is quite a difference, not really used to the Belmont, but Ill catch on if I have time. Have a feeling Tapwrit is going to be a horse to back, I've noticed people excited about him and his potential in the race, as if he's a pot of gold.
I get it now, stud career . Belmont champion children. Needs to be thoroughly examined, extreme vetting. Validation is worth as much as invalidation if correct.
I get it now, stud career . Belmont champion children. Needs to be thoroughly examined, extreme vetting. Validation is worth as much as invalidation if correct.
I am a robot.
May 26th, 2017 at 12:55:44 PM
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Free voucher if you preregister and show up at Belmont on May 29th.
http://www.mysteryvouchers.com/belmontpark/register.aspx
I highly doubt any of us even live close enough to go, but you never know.
http://www.mysteryvouchers.com/belmontpark/register.aspx
I highly doubt any of us even live close enough to go, but you never know.
I am a robot.
May 26th, 2017 at 7:32:11 PM
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Sonneteer is entered race 4 @ Santa Anita. 3/1 on the morning line, post 6. Shackleford baby Placido, post 12, 8/1.
This will be Sonneteer's eighth maiden race. Placido will be actually #10, blinkers on, only one race under belt, in third, but at 5.5 furlongs. Haven't checked all the horses out yet, but think I'm gambling on old Placido $5 win bet, which is almost like not betting.
Lots of good races there Saturday.
This will be Sonneteer's eighth maiden race. Placido will be actually #10, blinkers on, only one race under belt, in third, but at 5.5 furlongs. Haven't checked all the horses out yet, but think I'm gambling on old Placido $5 win bet, which is almost like not betting.
Lots of good races there Saturday.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 26, 2017
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May 26th, 2017 at 8:38:45 PM
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Heir Jordan, never a threat, so sorry. Thankfully I forgot to bet compulsively on that one.
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May 27th, 2017 at 6:24:03 AM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleHeir Jordan, never a threat, so sorry. Thankfully I forgot to bet compulsively on that one.
Well, we've tried poly and grass, now it's time for dirt!
May 27th, 2017 at 6:51:58 AM
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Out of American Heiress with Chicago connections, at least he does deserve an honorable mention in the "cleverly named horse" category. There must be an Eclipse Award given out for that, right?
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 27th, 2017 at 1:49:39 PM
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Quote: DrawingDeadOut of American Heiress with Chicago connections, at least he does deserve an honorable mention in the "cleverly named horse" category. There must be an Eclipse Award given out for that, right?
That's the only award he'll ever be up for...
Like you mentioned, the partnership group is based out of Chicago, and that's one of the ways they tried to attract investors.
May 27th, 2017 at 6:01:52 PM
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I mentioned how Sonneteer hadn't won a race after 8 maiden races and was in the Kentucky Derby. I was proposed a bet a maiden couldn't get into the derby, decided to just take $10 from him, plus I was afraid to scare him off. It was funny because he said he would bet me any money, I told him ten and he took his hand away. Coaxed him back in by saying, "You said any money, I said, $10, then you pulled your hand away." He said, "here, here, here". I knew a hundred times over Sonneteer was a maiden, but somehow was leery I missed something. $10 Anita Partner to win and it's gone. Illuminant was a good bet at 7/5, but was trying to win $100 just in case. Would have been better off just betting $80 on Illuminant, but I don't like and have never wagered that much on a single win bet yet.
I am a robot.
May 29th, 2017 at 9:56:09 PM
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If you want a job handicapping, this is your chance. Local casino has a handicapping contest for Belmont races. I will use the picks you give me, and if I win, will give you $25 by Amazon gift card. Need two sets of picks, so there are two jobs available. PM me for details. Might likely be a low turnout.
I am a robot.
May 31st, 2017 at 12:07:10 AM
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I need them Thursdays before the first race if anyone is handicapping the races anyways. Have to be there before the first race and be there after the last race to claim if I should win. Two people max right now, I would recruit slot ploppies if there were more than two of the usual suspects interested, but not one yet.Quote: onenickelmiracleIf you want a job handicapping, this is your chance. Local casino has a handicapping contest for Belmont races. I will use the picks you give me, and if I win, will give you $25 by Amazon gift card. Need two sets of picks, so there are two jobs available. PM me for details. Might likely be a low turnout.
I am a robot.
May 31st, 2017 at 10:08:39 AM
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I don't quite get the point. Why aren't you just making the picks?
May 31st, 2017 at 10:08:39 AM
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I don't quite get the point. Why aren't you just making the picks?
May 31st, 2017 at 2:51:49 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracle...if I win, will give you $25 by Amazon gift card. Need two sets of picks...
Okay then 1 x $0.05, here ya go:Quote: onenickelmiracle...I would recruit slot ploppies if there were more than two of the usual suspects interested, but not one yet.
1. Your new medication will have a prescription number on the label. Whatever it is, all of them do; it will be a long number. In case you wondered what that was for, it has a very special hidden meaning, and here it is: Take the last number, and that is your selection for the first race, the next to last number is the selection for the second race, etc, for all of them until you run out of races.
2. Since you apparently need more that one batch of selections, for the second bunch use these here: http://www.kristpicks.com/ Of course there are thousands of these "picks" of incalculable value plastered all over the web every day, so what is one to do to pick the right free picks? But I consulted with the almost always occasionally somewhat reliable Madame Fatima, the proprietoress of Fatima’s World Famous Massage, Tarot Card, and Numerology Studio on East Tropicana (the one discretely tucked away right behind Juan & Miguel’s 24 hr used auto parts store) and she says out of all those valuable free picks on the internetz, this one is way overdue to hit some Belmont races now more than others.
You’re welcome, and I’ll let you know where to send my $25 later, after you get rich.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 31st, 2017 at 4:14:50 PM
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I'm sure I can read a program with past performances, but would have to pay for them, and my opinions from reading a program won't be very good. Maybe not very good is what is needed to win the contest, because the first criteria is the number of wins, then the mythical payout, but probably not. It will take a few hours of work in addition to my time being locked in before races start and being at the track when races finished. I thought it would be better to not spend my time prognosticating and let someone more experienced try that is already doing that and would never be able to show up anyways, so win-win.Quote: FinsRuleI don't quite get the point. Why aren't you just making the picks?
I am a robot.
May 31st, 2017 at 4:19:55 PM
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I already visited the site. I figured it would be easy enough to pick mostly chalk and throw in a few wrenches, but my wrenches might be darts. I might not even bother going there to enter the way it looks now. Is that all these things are, choosing a horse out of the top five odds, winner is someone that gambles on a heavy once or twice? I have no idea how many people will be playing, guess around 50 or more. Not sure how many are just playing numbers out before the start.Quote: DrawingDeadOkay then 1 x $0.05, here ya go:
1. Your new medication will have a prescription number on the label. Whatever it is, all of them do; it will be a long number. In case you wondered what that was for, it has a very special hidden meaning, and here it is: Take the last number, and that is your selection for the first race, the next to last number is the selection for the second race, etc, for all of them until you run out of races.
2. Since you apparently need more that one batch of selections, for the second bunch use these here: http://www.kristpicks.com/ Of course there are thousands of these "picks" of incalculable value plastered all over the web every day, so what is one to do to pick the right free picks? But I consulted with the almost always occasionally somewhat reliable Madame Fatima, the proprietoress of Fatima’s World Famous Massage, Tarot Card, and Numerology Studio on East Tropicana (the one discretely tucked away right behind Juan & Miguel’s 24 hr used auto parts store) and she says out of all those valuable free picks on the internetz, this one is way overdue to hit some Belmont races now more than others.
You’re welcome, and I’ll let you know where to send my $25 later, after you get rich.
I am a robot.
May 31st, 2017 at 9:16:11 PM
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Offer reduced, to $5. Lol. I see I offended by offering too much.
I am a robot.
June 1st, 2017 at 3:52:30 PM
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The winner has 5 and second and third 4. Had less than those. Biggest winner on the day paid $19.80, a bit chalky.
I am a robot.
June 3rd, 2017 at 12:32:35 AM
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betting on racing machines. historical racing. i wonder what their takeout is. i'd like to know more about this. kind of interesting.
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/press/casinos_tourism/betting-on-races-already-run-tracks-eye-new-source-of/article_d65a9ba9-55d5-54ca-bfe6-5d56abc79f5a.html
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/press/casinos_tourism/betting-on-races-already-run-tracks-eye-new-source-of/article_d65a9ba9-55d5-54ca-bfe6-5d56abc79f5a.html
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 3rd, 2017 at 1:04:46 AM
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Tracks have been talking about this as long as I remember, I think it's stupid. Without being able to watch a race, there is no entertainment. Either way seems like having your way with a robot, it has nothing to lose by saying yes, so no fun, unfulfilling, you're not really being accepted.Quote: lilredroosterbetting on racing machines. historical racing. i wonder what their takeout is. i'd like to know more about this. kind of interesting.
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/press/casinos_tourism/betting-on-races-already-run-tracks-eye-new-source-of/article_d65a9ba9-55d5-54ca-bfe6-5d56abc79f5a.html
I am a robot.
June 3rd, 2017 at 1:06:22 AM
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I dont care about the Belmont, it's too wide open to care. Caring and betting will get you nowhere.
I am a robot.
June 4th, 2017 at 7:23:11 PM
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IMO, they are slot machines that are not called slot machines in order to try to get them into tracks in a lot of jurisdictions where slot machines are not allowed to compete with the proliferation of new "Indian" (*ahem*cough*cough*) casinos. But those promoting them will say otherwise; the amounts of payouts are determined by the winner of whatever "race" the machine has randomly selected, and those obscure randomly selected "historical" race payouts had odds that were parimutually determined when they were originally run. So, they are said to be parimutual wagering, on races.Quote: lilredroosterbetting on racing machines. historical racing. i wonder what their takeout is. i'd like to know more about this. kind of interesting.
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/press/casinos_tourism/betting-on-races-already-run-tracks-eye-new-source-of/article_d65a9ba9-55d5-54ca-bfe6-5d56abc79f5a.html
A lot of details are not publicly known, so far as I've been able to find in my reading about them. What I have found in court battles over these "don't cal them slots" slots, is that they do contain a random number generator. The extent of the RNG's effect is not entirely clear from the public information I've read from those legal disputes. The supposed information to make them a "game of skill" amounts to some graphs about starters in the "race" shown on the screen before the winning cherry or lemon, er, make that a virtual pony, is picked. The linked article says "Idaho and Texas pulled the plug after trials." The plug was pulled in Idaho & Texas when they were determined to be slot machines dressed up under a different name, in jurisdictions/locations where the law did not allow those.
Like slot machines, the house hold is opaque. But I previously found a local press account that quoted the gross total of the machine betting reported at one Kentucky track that has had them (approximately $700,000) along with the number of machines installed (350) there (at one of the smaller tracks - I forget which one) and the house take per machine ($166). From that and my back of napkin arithmetic I got a "don't call them slots" hold of a little more than 8%, which I guess would be roughly consistent with a gross take vs. coin-in figure common on many slots that are called slots. But I wouldn't want to claim this single snapshot result is an accurate reflection of long-range expectation, or to generalize from it.
I agree. But stupid is rather popular. And doesn't require reading stuff, or take 30 minutes between races.Quote: onenickelmiracle<SNIP>...I think it's stupid.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Jun 4, 2017
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
June 5th, 2017 at 6:25:26 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterbetting on racing machines. historical racing. i wonder what their takeout is. i'd like to know more about this. kind of interesting.
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/press/casinos_tourism/betting-on-races-already-run-tracks-eye-new-source-of/article_d65a9ba9-55d5-54ca-bfe6-5d56abc79f5a.html
Nothing new about this (well, except maybe that this version sounds like it's pari-mutuel rather than one player at a time) - there were machines in the 1980s that had quarter horse races on laserdiscs, and the bettor was shown just the post positions and odds.
Is there any information other than handicapper's odds available before the race? Does somebody make money selling past performance charts for these? Then again, if that information was available, how hard would it be to develop a database of races so you could determine the winner in advance?
June 5th, 2017 at 7:17:24 PM
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These machines don't work how you think they would. They give you one meaningless stat and you pick based on that. There's no possible strategy. The "best" and I say they that loosely, is to just play it like a slot.
Final verdict - Waste of time.
Final verdict - Waste of time.
June 5th, 2017 at 7:20:31 PM
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Let's talk about the Belmont instead: Epicharis, Patch, Classic Empire, Meantime. Thoughts?
June 6th, 2017 at 2:44:54 AM
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Delete
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June 6th, 2017 at 6:55:00 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleLet's talk about the Belmont instead
"Historical Racing" discussion should be moved to this thread.
June 6th, 2017 at 1:50:20 PM
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gjYOs98RNO0
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June 7th, 2017 at 7:27:45 PM
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Would have been nice if CE made the post draw before scratched. Surprised Epicharis is 4/1 and will be coming down. Who knows maybe his odds will go up, people will gravitate towards IWC. IWC and Gormley scare me to bet on them winning. Are outside posts that good in the Belmont? This race wont be like the past too much, probably won't take such too much into consideration.
I am a robot.
June 7th, 2017 at 11:32:34 PM
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watch for senior investment.....looks like he'll run all day.
get second you pig
June 8th, 2017 at 12:38:07 AM
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I keep hearing people get fooled by closers thinking they'll run long distances good, but it's not true. Senior investment was bolting faster than the rest when he was closing I know. I was thinking of SA but after awhile forgot about him. Senior investment was 5.5 length behind iirc, behind two horses not in this race, but the distance still.Quote: ontariodealerwatch for senior investment.....looks like he'll run all day.
I am a robot.
June 8th, 2017 at 4:49:59 AM
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what do you guys think of irish war cry being the favorite at 7/2? he folded badly in the derby and the fountain of youth. he did win the wood memorial. epicharis the 2nd fave and 4/1 is foreign and hard to cap. lookin at lee the 3rd fave did well at the derby and although 4th in the preakness got a somewhat positive comment on the chart (kept trying to the wire). he closed even though he was 16 lengths back early in the derby and got 2nd while only about 3 lengths back from the winner. i can't see hard core cappers getting very enthusiastic about irish war cry. i think he's likely to go cold in the betting. what am i missing about him? dead?
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 8th, 2017 at 10:09:39 AM
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I listened to the drf on YouTube, made good points about his best races being outliers. I'll be surprised if he wins or even makes the board, but what do I know. I'd have to look at the pedigree predictions video I posted again, and go off that.
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June 8th, 2017 at 2:14:27 PM
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i was going to say that i liked epicharis the foreigner a little bit. then i saw he worked 5 furlongs at belmont in 1:06.06. was he running backwards? forget it.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 8th, 2017 at 5:55:24 PM
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If I were to have to pick 1,2,11 would be where id start.
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June 8th, 2017 at 7:31:30 PM
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Epicharis is hurt. He's not getting my money.
June 8th, 2017 at 9:21:27 PM
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Belmont Stakes past performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes17.pdf
I have handicapped the race. It is pretty wide open with the removal of Classic Empire. Meantime should be on the lead (with M. Smith as a plus), but the longer distance and the additional 10 lbs (from his Peter Pan runner up) have me concerned. Lookin At Lee has the class and has been competitive in the top class events. Patch has the most upside IMO. He is lightly raced, should enjoy the distance, gets his maiden winning jockey back onboard (Johnny V), and has a pressing style to stay connected from the outside post with Meantime.
As FinsRule mentioned, Epicharis has a foot issue. His connections would certainly love a chance at the added NYRA (Japan) bonus for winning the Belmont Stakes...
I will likely wager very little on Belmont Saturday. Probably just one Daily Double:
Belmont Stakes (Race 11) #12 - Patch, #6 - Lookin At Lee, #9 - Meantime
with (Race 12) #3 - Revved Up
GLTA
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes17.pdf
I have handicapped the race. It is pretty wide open with the removal of Classic Empire. Meantime should be on the lead (with M. Smith as a plus), but the longer distance and the additional 10 lbs (from his Peter Pan runner up) have me concerned. Lookin At Lee has the class and has been competitive in the top class events. Patch has the most upside IMO. He is lightly raced, should enjoy the distance, gets his maiden winning jockey back onboard (Johnny V), and has a pressing style to stay connected from the outside post with Meantime.
As FinsRule mentioned, Epicharis has a foot issue. His connections would certainly love a chance at the added NYRA (Japan) bonus for winning the Belmont Stakes...
I will likely wager very little on Belmont Saturday. Probably just one Daily Double:
Belmont Stakes (Race 11) #12 - Patch, #6 - Lookin At Lee, #9 - Meantime
with (Race 12) #3 - Revved Up
GLTA
June 9th, 2017 at 1:39:06 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleEpicharis is hurt. He's not getting my money.
from an abc news report:
"The vet treating the horse cited "possible foot" as the issue."He looked a little different favoring his right front yesterday afternoon, so we treated his hoof and gave him bute," trainer Kiyoshi Hagiwara said Thursday through a translator. "It looks like it's getting better and I think there is no problem running him in the race. We still have time, so we will give him the best care we can."
can't believe his connections are going to run a hurting horse. their sick. i hope karma is a real thing for them.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 9th, 2017 at 5:14:03 PM
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Random un-cheery thoughts, which are probably best read by nobody:
1. What a crappy edition of the Belmont.
2. I have nothing cooking in this mess o' hash.
3. Multiplier has an exceptionally ideal pedigree profile for winning... the Champagne Stakes for two year-olds in October going one turn in a juvenile season, and then being retired by about June of the sophomore (3 y/o) year.
4. After squinting at the prospective field to the point of hallucination, I was getting intrigued by Epicharis. For about fifteen minutes; then he got off the airplane. To me, the Epi-saga has now become quite disturbing. Apparently "posse of vain stubborn reckless irresponsible douchebags" translates very well into Japanese. And so does the bullsheeting "it was just what we wanted he's doing great" trainer-speak.
5. I don't think I want to watch it live. Immediately after the 10th at Belmont I think I'll be better off heading for a poker room or a buffet or some combination thereof, and if I hear nobody died due to a catastrophic breakdown in the race, I'll catch it on my DVR later.
Good luck.
1. What a crappy edition of the Belmont.
2. I have nothing cooking in this mess o' hash.
3. Multiplier has an exceptionally ideal pedigree profile for winning... the Champagne Stakes for two year-olds in October going one turn in a juvenile season, and then being retired by about June of the sophomore (3 y/o) year.
4. After squinting at the prospective field to the point of hallucination, I was getting intrigued by Epicharis. For about fifteen minutes; then he got off the airplane. To me, the Epi-saga has now become quite disturbing. Apparently "posse of vain stubborn reckless irresponsible douchebags" translates very well into Japanese. And so does the bullsheeting "it was just what we wanted he's doing great" trainer-speak.
5. I don't think I want to watch it live. Immediately after the 10th at Belmont I think I'll be better off heading for a poker room or a buffet or some combination thereof, and if I hear nobody died due to a catastrophic breakdown in the race, I'll catch it on my DVR later.
Good luck.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
June 9th, 2017 at 5:31:09 PM
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If I were going to bet, might just do wps 123 and exactas 123. I'm still thinking, but have researched very little, about 2% of normal. It's not a race where examination of two top hyped horse and moving down the card will do, so that's probably why. Those are the only big races I can do well on. There isn't an easy way to start in this one. People don't play trifectas, 24% takeout. Wps, 16%, dds and exactas and quinellas18.5%.
I am a robot.
June 9th, 2017 at 7:08:47 PM
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Bel 8 - $.50 P4 - 1, 2, 5, 6 / 5, 7, 9, 12 / 3, 4, 9 / 7, 9, 10, 12 = $96
June 9th, 2017 at 7:18:32 PM
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Just dont play it and give me half. It's a 24% takeout the P4, P5 is 15%.Quote: FinsRuleBel 8 - $.50 P4 - 1, 2, 5, 6 / 5, 7, 9, 12 / 3, 4, 9 / 7, 9, 10, 12 = $96
I am a robot.
June 9th, 2017 at 8:06:44 PM
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Quote: DrawingDead
1. What a crappy edition of the Belmont.
Good luck.
Editing mine.
So Secretariat's Belmont Stakes record is not in jeopardy this weekend?
I still find the race interesting and certainly watchable. I kinda hope Meantime wins easy on the front end and Twisted Tom is nowhere close to a top 5 finish. A little punishment for C. Brown (and connections) not running Timeline in this one. Does wanting that make me bad person?
June 9th, 2017 at 9:36:58 PM
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Good, I'm glad others can puzzle this out in more interesting ways than I have.
I took some figurative deep breaths, borrowed some extra courage to bet it very hard, and rang the cash register (and juiced up my smirking smugness quotient) in a big way in this in 2014...
...and still haven't quite stopped feeling entitled to something like that setup. Ah, with the same result in the photo, of course.
No, I'm sure that would not be nearly enough to get the job done, so grudge harder.Quote: KeeneoneDoes wanting that make me bad person?
I took some figurative deep breaths, borrowed some extra courage to bet it very hard, and rang the cash register (and juiced up my smirking smugness quotient) in a big way in this in 2014...
...and still haven't quite stopped feeling entitled to something like that setup. Ah, with the same result in the photo, of course.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
June 10th, 2017 at 12:40:12 AM
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I'm either going to be on Hollywood Handsome, thinking he'll sprout wings and fly across the finish line. I'm hoping for 101-1. Either that or twisted tom. This way I can bet small and just watch it unfold and not get mad.
I am a robot.
June 10th, 2017 at 6:45:28 AM
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$2 Exacta - Twisted Tom / All
June 10th, 2017 at 10:28:25 AM
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All answers are right answers today. That could happen.Quote: FinsRule$2 Exacta - Twisted Tom / All
I am a robot.
June 10th, 2017 at 1:48:41 PM
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Mike Smith has 5 wins today so far. So I will bet 10 WPS on Meantime
Go Smith go.
Go Smith go.
June 10th, 2017 at 2:03:07 PM
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Exacta cold Irish War Cry to Patch
June 10th, 2017 at 5:27:48 PM
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Tapit mares 3/4. In a few years every horse in the Belmont will be by tapit. Now I understand why the announcers get so hopeful about them on the derby trail, knowing if they can just win the derby, a triple crown.
I am a robot.
