2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders
June 10th, 2017 at 5:37:01 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiraclehttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gjYOs98RNO0
Green:
Epicharis
Twisted Tom
Yellow:
Gormley
Conquest mo money
Senior investment
Irish war cry
Tapwrit
Patch
The red I was unable to read, but they're all down at the bottom by process of elimination. Green and yellow, 6 horses, 4 which were top four. They're pretty sharp eliminating 5 horses before the race ever started. I didn't make any bets, gambling money was low, had better options for the money more pertinent.
I see a 6 horse $.10 superfecta costs $36, $.10 superfecta paid $216. Might work next year, but next year there will be a horse a sure favorite most likely.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Jun 10, 2017
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June 10th, 2017 at 7:20:02 PM
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No joy for me today @ Belmont.
It has been another fun year of Triple Crown action. Thank you to DD for starting this thread and thanks to all of the participants in this discussion.
Maybe it is time to start watching a few early 2 year old races...
Kentucky Derby = Always Dreaming (first race - 7/1/2016), runner up - Lookin At Lee (6/11/2016)
Preakness Stakes = Cloud Computing (first race - 2/11/2017), runner up - Classic Empire (5/4/2016)
Belmont Stakes = Tapwrit (first race - 9/3/2016), runner up - Irish War Cry (11/11/2016)
It has been another fun year of Triple Crown action. Thank you to DD for starting this thread and thanks to all of the participants in this discussion.
Maybe it is time to start watching a few early 2 year old races...
Kentucky Derby = Always Dreaming (first race - 7/1/2016), runner up - Lookin At Lee (6/11/2016)
Preakness Stakes = Cloud Computing (first race - 2/11/2017), runner up - Classic Empire (5/4/2016)
Belmont Stakes = Tapwrit (first race - 9/3/2016), runner up - Irish War Cry (11/11/2016)
June 11th, 2017 at 1:02:41 AM
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the final time for yesterday's belmont stakes was 2:30.02. Secretariat did it in 2:24.00. without considering the relative slowness or fastness of the track Secretariat would have beaten Tapwrit by about 30 lengths. the time for the last quarter yesterday was 25:92. when i was 19 i might have been able to beat irish war cry in the last 40 yards. hahahahaha
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 11th, 2017 at 1:31:41 AM
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I saw Emancipation run yesterday. Man I wish I was watching the race live, I would have been all over that horse. I suspected he would be good, really didn't hear any bad news from the trainer about this bigger, stronger full brother of orb. He was underselling the horse's chances, saying he needed time to develop. I took it as underpromise, overdeliver. 29-1, last to first on the turf, his first race. Very impressive, forget about those odds ever again for him, he might have a challenge for Arrogate.
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June 11th, 2017 at 9:10:40 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterthe final time for yesterday's belmont stakes was 2:30.02. Secretariat did it in 2:24.00. without considering the relative slowness or fastness of the track Secretariat would have beaten Tapwrit by about 30 lengths. the time for the last quarter yesterday was 25:92. when i was 19 i might have been able to beat irish war cry in the last 40 yards. hahahahaha
here is a video of the 2015 Belmont winner ( 2.26.65 over three seconds faster than yesterdays race) Against the race all will always be compared to 1973
http://www.wsj.com/video/american-pharoah-vs-secretariat-who-would-win/513B9634-15E8-4108-B3F7-DEB54AF09F4B.html
June 11th, 2017 at 12:45:54 PM
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Is there a way to see how much a trifecta or superfecta will pay before a race, or even after if not before? For that matter, place or show too.
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June 11th, 2017 at 10:30:43 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleIs there a way to see how much a trifecta or superfecta will pay before a race, or even after if not before? For that matter, place or show too.
Win, Place, Show pools and Exacta probables are normally shown. Double, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, pick 6 payouts also normally shown when available.
I would guess the large number of combinations in the tri, super, super high 5 etc. make it impossible to show potential payouts.
What would one do with this data if available?
June 11th, 2017 at 11:22:49 PM
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This is the best way to handicap a race:
There seems to be a math estimate mistake in this film...
There seems to be a math estimate mistake in this film...
48 - $50 Win tickets @ 25 to 1 = $62,400 total payout
June 11th, 2017 at 11:29:57 PM
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You would do the same as looking at a tote board, seeing what you may expect to win. It could be inaccurate based on the second you look etc. It always bugs me not knowing anything about how much you might win. If a maniac bet large in a small pool, you would be shorted if you chose his side and better off if you're against him and succeeded, like a bridge jumper.Quote: KeeneoneWin, Place, Show pools and Exacta probables are normally shown. Double, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, pick 6 payouts also normally shown when available.
I would guess the large number of combinations in the tri, super, super high 5 etc. make it impossible to show potential payouts.
What would one do with this data if available?
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Jun 12, 2017
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June 11th, 2017 at 11:54:16 PM
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Seems so sometimes. Remember when everyone you talked to thought Denver would win the Super Bowl, or New England, or Oakland, then the game was, sueeeeee-prizzzzzzze. That's just being a contrarian, but contrarians do pretty good in life.Quote: KeeneoneThis is the best way to handicap a race:
There seems to be a math estimate mistake in this film...48 - $50 Win tickets @ 25 to 1 = $62,400 total payout
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June 12th, 2017 at 12:26:41 AM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleIt always bugs me not knowing anything about how much you might win.
that is definitely one of the main things that makes you question your sanity when betting horses. there are quite a few others. to be fair, there are some good days when your payout is more then you anticipated.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 12th, 2017 at 4:38:21 AM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleIs there a way to see how much a trifecta or superfecta will pay before a race, or even after if not before? For that matter, place or show too.
Trifecta - Superfecta - No.
Place and Show you would need to develop your own formula and plug in the pools. Then you could show what each combination would pay out. The only practical use for that formula would be in contests. Or if you're a huge bettor, and those extra $.20 are really $200.
June 15th, 2017 at 2:31:21 AM
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if you see a 3/5 or lower fave and you think he's a bum if you bet place or show on another horse and this bet scores and the fave is out of place or show you often get an inflated payout
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 15, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 15th, 2017 at 5:00:09 AM
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^True enough. "Inflated payout" in that case can mean that place or show wagers may pay more than win bets, and sometimes a lot more. Done that, been there, and plan to win the "Chalk Stomping" t-shirt for that again when I think the opportunity arises. And for a more boring use of show pools in the opposite direction, by becoming a totally shameless chalk eating weasel...
If someone pays careful attention to such things and knows exactly what they're looking for, because of some peculiarities in the precise way pools are distributed in North American racing, there are actually some circumstances involving a heavy favorite in a field of a certain specific size, in which it becomes possible to make show wagers on multiple horses in the same race in such a way that one can be absolutely positively mathematically certain of a guaranteed profit (for a small percentage of total amounts wagered) on show bets, regardless of the outcome of that race. That circumstance isn't common enough to exist every day, but it does come up a lot more often than every month. And no, I will not go into more detail here beyond that intentionally vague description.
If someone pays careful attention to such things and knows exactly what they're looking for, because of some peculiarities in the precise way pools are distributed in North American racing, there are actually some circumstances involving a heavy favorite in a field of a certain specific size, in which it becomes possible to make show wagers on multiple horses in the same race in such a way that one can be absolutely positively mathematically certain of a guaranteed profit (for a small percentage of total amounts wagered) on show bets, regardless of the outcome of that race. That circumstance isn't common enough to exist every day, but it does come up a lot more often than every month. And no, I will not go into more detail here beyond that intentionally vague description.
Nothing to read here. Move along.
June 17th, 2017 at 2:45:15 AM
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DD - Yes, it happens. But you need to find the 100K in cash quick to make your guaranteed 1K. It's usually not more than 1-2%.
June 17th, 2017 at 3:56:41 AM
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david sklansky the poker writer wrote something i liked quite a bit about horse and sports betting. he said you find an edge by finding a mistake in the pricing (i.e.: you believe the bettors overestimated the class angle.) but only get interested if you understand why the mistake was made. if the line looks off and you don't know why, leave it alone. maybe somebody knows something you don't know.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 18th, 2017 at 7:10:34 PM
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I'm a winner! My other horse won her debut race at Arlington today in the 8th. 10-1 and ran a fast time! Yeah, I only own a tiny bit of her, but it sure was an amazing experience. I'm still smiling.
July 23rd, 2017 at 6:51:17 PM
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Sonneteer finally broke his maiden by a nose on the turf tonight. Is he still considered eligible in maiden races on the dirt?
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July 29th, 2017 at 3:11:15 PM
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Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing racing soon in rave 10 Saratoga.
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July 29th, 2017 at 3:23:28 PM
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Good Samaritan, a dirt maiden beats then by 5 lengths closing. Looks like Cloud Computing last, Always Dreaming show with five horses in the race. This race puts the reputation of Classic Empire way up.Quote: onenickelmiracleAlways Dreaming and Cloud Computing racing soon in rave 10 Saratoga.
Added: Neck sweats were visible on Always Dreaming looking hot before the race.
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July 29th, 2017 at 7:16:51 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleSonneteer finally broke his maiden by a nose on the turf tonight. Is he still considered eligible in maiden races on the dirt?
no..his next step is n2l....horses who have never won 2 races lifetime.
get second you pig
July 29th, 2017 at 7:20:02 PM
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Thanks.Quote: ontariodealerno..his next step is n2l....horses who have never won 2 races lifetime.
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