JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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May 7th, 2017 at 1:54:14 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Some of the firstest fastest remarks on the race I've heard seem to be saying that, besides Thunder Snow's problems, Classic Empire just had a trip where he got mugged in an alley, and robbed on the subway, then run over by a taxi, and lost all chance. Didn't catch the rough racing luck incident(s) they're chatting about myself. Did those here focusing on that one see it like that?



I was watching AD from the start and lost track of CE. After watching the replay, I can say Leparoux is definitely no John Velazquez.

Velazquez made that look easy. He actually squeezed Fast and Accurate up against the rail, made him go behind AD, and got rid of that little pest. LOL. Nice run.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 7th, 2017 at 3:22:18 PM permalink
I'm going to rewatch the derby show now. I'll be thinking a lot about the race leading up to the Preakness, considering if Always Dreaming really is the heir apparent. I'm thinking the derby was anomaly after anomaly right now, from the sloppy track to the bad start for many. What excuse does Irish War Cry have? Not good enough, not long enough, most likely.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 7th, 2017 at 6:45:48 PM permalink
KAbout Patch, it pretty much means any horse that's talked about to the public will be bet. All it took was talking about the horse, how his eye was lost, and people will bet on it. You could probably talk about how bad a horse is and some people will want to bet on them.

I didn't really put much effort into the derby this year like all years, but wanted to. My tolerance overload for horseracing has been met, having a little trouble getting into it for a while. Got Common Sense Handicapping from the library a week or so ago and haven't even cracked it open yet. Yet I feel I have to write this so I won't forget, in the future, I must check out horses nobody is talking about and not just ignore them.

If I would have thought about the derby at all, I should have seen and remembered Gunnevera not catching Always Dreaming. I'd seen the race, just was sold on Gunnevera too early in the year, I stopped thinking. If you will say Gunnevera will be different at some point catching them the next time, where are you supposed to see this happening if there aren't races.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 7, 2017
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 7th, 2017 at 10:26:03 PM permalink
#1 Looking at Lee, son of 2010 Preakness winner Looking at Lucky. Jockey Corey Lanerie top jockey at Churchill 12 of last 14 years.
#3 Fast and Accurate- paid $200,000 supplement to get into the derby after winning Spiral stakes and was not nominated into the derby. In the beginning of the year, the fee is only $50 iirc.
#5 Always Dreaming- Won Florida Derby, fastest time since 1978. Bet against Pletcher, come out on a stretcher. Should have known.
#7 Girvin-named after an almost deserted West Texas town
#10 Gunnevera-ridden by Javier Castallano who has never finished in the money in ten derby tries.
#11 Battle of Midway-never raced as a 2 year old. 2nd in the Santa Anita derby.
#14 Classic Empire, has never won a race leading from gate to wire. Trainer Mark Casse believed there to be an inside track bias, although only 1 race that day won on the rail.
#17 Irish War Cry. Post position 17, 0/38 winning the derby. I dont understand this, the derby is 143 years old and has had 30 entrants. Father Curlin won Breeders' cup classic, on sloppy track, but had never ran on slop. 9 horses in the derby had never ran on a sloppy track, including Always dreaming.

Watching the race, I realize why I hate the derby. The camera angles are no good, they don't show the horses loading into the gate, and too much screaming being heard during the race.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 7, 2017
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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May 8th, 2017 at 4:49:00 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Maybe next year, favorite/all/all.



I was so disappointed by this year's Derby. 5 years in a row by favorites. People will blame the points system, but under the old system, the only real changes would be Untrapped and Patch out, and Royal Mo and Master Plan in.

There was speed in the Derby like I thought there would be, but for some reason, the closers didn't close. I'm guessing it was the track conditions. This year was harder than most because you really just had no way of knowing how the track was going to be at race time. Oh well, onto the Preakness...

I'll keep trying to beat Always Dreaming. I hope I don't try to beat him into the Triple Crown.

My first thought is - Conquest Mo Money.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 8th, 2017 at 3:02:58 PM permalink
Classic Empire has a black eye from running in the derby, literally. When you look at Always Dreaming, how much is placed on his sire Bodemeister now? I did look at Gunnevera's sire running in the derby and preakness, notes were something like, nothing left, or no improvement placing 4th in the Preakness. Now I believe such might be the case with Gunnevera, you'll be wanting him to close but nothing will really happen spectacularly.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 8th, 2017 at 7:06:29 PM permalink
What's a good site to get pick ideas. I'm a sports bettor but I know some that do very well playing the horses. I'm sure whenever one sees value in a line they lay a wager. How often does a 15 to 1 true odds type horse pays 25 to 1 since the public avoided? Do horse bettors play it this way under the idea that these come in much more often than the 25 to 1 implied or do most just play the favorites to win/show. Seems like you'd have to bet big unless there are the value type lines available on the regular?
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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May 8th, 2017 at 9:31:14 PM permalink
The Preakness field is developing...

Always Dreaming is highly likely to run.
Lookin At Lee and Hench are being considered.
Classic Empire is possible with an improving eye issue.
Conquest Mo Money will be supplemented into the race (for $150k).
Multiplier and Senior Investment are being considered.
Gunnevera is being considered.
Royal Mo is likely to run.
Cloud Computing is possible.

The last 2 runners (Royal Mo & Cloud Computing) are horses I had Derby future bets with. Cloud Computing was in with points for the Derby (but passed on the race) and Royal Mo was #21 and did not make the field. I obviously like both runners in the next Triple Crown races. Royal Mo was flattered some with the performance of Battle Of Midway (3rd in the Derby). Both have very good tactical speed to be forwardly placed the Preakness.

With that being said, AD has the look of a horse that is very good right now. Perfect race in the Derby. Was in the ideal spot (set up by his ability to be very close to the lead) and continued on when the running really started down the stretch. It is difficult to fault his last 2 races. What will be his odds in the Preakness? Even money or lower (4/5,3/5,2/5 etc.)? I would guess they will be lower even money with 2 great races in a row.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 8th, 2017 at 9:42:14 PM permalink
Depending if Classic Empire is in the race, for the odds on Always Dreaming. There will be sentiment Classic Empire was hampered by the bad start in the derby. I'll guess even money- 6/5 for Always Dreaming and 5/2-3/1 for Classic Empire.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 8th, 2017 at 9:48:06 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Girvin will be running on a quarter crack, assuming he goes to post Saturday. For those not familiar, a quarter crack is basically a hoof that has cracked kind of like a split in a fingernail, except that a big powerful horse is running on that somewhat larger equivalent of a nail, and with the crack the force of running hard tends to force it to spread apart farther and deeper. At worst, if not properly cared for, potentially with fatal results. I don't bet on horses with quarter cracks. I just don't. At all. Ever.

There are things that can be done to sometimes allow some horses to run on some quarter cracks, including "bar shoes" that help hold the hoof together. In less publicized events, showing up with bar shoes and the like is the usual way of discovering that someone is trying to run on a quarter crack. I understand he's been staying in shape mostly by swimming, with some light work on a synthetic surface. The trainer says he's had a special custom bar-shoe made for him, he's recovered quickly from a quarter crack before, and he's been doing great, and he's confident he'll be able to run well. Personally I'm about as impressed by that kind of statement as an owner's assertion that he fed him a carrot yesterday and he had four legs and a tail attached while eating it.

Your money, your choice.

Normal horseshoe:



Examples of bar-shoes:

I would be tempted to use glue, but there must be a reason they don't.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.

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