MizzouRah's Picks - College Football
September 14th, 2016 at 1:23:45 PM
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Just to keep things simple I have decided to keep my future picks for this season all on one post.
You can find my first week of picks here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26699-week-one-college-football-picks/#post550147
and the week two picks are here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26833-week-two-college-football-picks/#post553337
We had another mildly successful week last week going 4-3 against the spread. I should mention that I loved Vandy at -3, well by game time the spread was actually back to -3 so if you really followed these picks you won another game but even though I would like to do so, I'm not going to call this an "official" pick just because I turned out to be correct! I was 7-0 straight up.
So we are 8-6 ATS on the year and 13-4 straight up.
Let's get straight to this week's big game for the home team!
Georgia (-6.5) at MIZZOU - It was a much appreciated sight last weekend to see a pretty damn impressive passing game just demolish Eastern Michigan (who had kind of a gritty, fairly well coached team, we will get to that later). I know the opponent wasn't anything overwhelming but last year we could not complete most of those passes against air. Drew Lock appears to be making the type of improvements that Mizzou fans hoped to see between his Freshman and Sophomore years. I'm rather optimistic about the team, and when you couple that with the fact that honestly MU lost that game in Georgia last year because of incompetent officiating on two blown calls on punts, one might expect me to pick the home team to cover easily here.
The ONLY reason I seriously considered picking MU (well besides the obvious fact that I am a bit of a homer) is because I thought the line would be closer to 10-12 points. When it seems like Vegas is begging you to bet on Georgia, the smart money is usually moving the other way. So that's one thing to consider. Still, despite an impressive offensive performance last week, MU is not tackling well and not getting pressure on the quarterback (which I think would be a key to our overall success this week) so I have to go with where the value appears to be.
GEORGIA is the pick 38-27
ku (+20) at Memphis - Man it was fun watching all the ku fans get false hope about their team after beating the mighty Rhode Island Rams! Ohio demonstrated that the ku D has a long way to go to do well against legitimate (or less than legitimate) competition. Still, Memphis didn't cover this number against SEMO last week and it least it seems like ku is still trying hard, at least for now, so this may not be a complete blowout.
Pick ku who loses 41-24
Oregon (+3) at Nebraska - People I respect keep telling me to roll with Nebraska, that they are much improved this year. Also I know there have been a few home losses in recent years, but this is going to be a tough environment for the Ducks to get accustomed to. Had Oregon not won the turnover battle against a fairly weak Virginia team, they might have been in a real dogfight. I'll stick with the team that has been covering and has been explosive on offense.
NEBRASKA wins 45-34
New Mexico State (+19) at Kentucky - Last week my Kentucky pick was (wisely) questioned by someone who disagreed with my (false) assertion that Kentucky should have the type of athletes to compete somewhat at Florida. Well, things may be going completely off the tracks here but I don't think they will quit on Stoops after two weeks here and I'll make another statement. Kentucky SHOULD have the athletes to blow these guys out. I'll continue to bet on this mess of a team.
KENTUCKY is the pick, they win 48-17
I kind of liked K-State at minus 18 or 19 but I think the value has been bet out of that game. Let's just pick them to win here.
Eastern Michigan (-2.5) at Charlotte - The eye test can be misleading but EMU had a fairly solid running game and a decent defense for their level that Missouri really wore out. Charlotte meanwhile appears to be at another level of bad. I think from what I saw EMU will be far more competitive in the MAC this year and certainly good enough to win big here.
EASTERN MICHIGAN is the pick, they win 38-23
UNLV (+13) at Central Michigan - While Central Michigan was given a gift to beat Oklahoma State, I lived through the fifth down and have no real sympathy for OSU (who benefited from a fifth down of their own last year earlier in the game vs. Kansas State).
Anyway, I never think it's a bad idea to consider betting against a team that might be "fat and happy" especially when you get a UNLV team that seems to be improving and competed fairly well at UCLA so going on the road shouldn't be a big concern.
Let's take Central Michigan to win 34-28 but UNLV to cover.
I had a few other games I was really looking at (I wonder how Wazzu responds to Mike Leach's recent tantrum, I wanted to pick the big SEC games featuring Alabama and to a lesser degree LSU or the OU vs. Ohio State game) but I can't come up with any good leans. Some of the games I liked initially, the lines moved against me.
It may not be sexy to pick "under the radar" games but winning these games help build the old "toothpick pile" just as well as hitting on Alabama (who missed the spread by 0.5 points last week!)
So let's stop with six picks this week and hopefully I am wrong about Ol' Mizzou. Enjoy the week of football and Good Luck to your (non Dawg) team!
You can find my first week of picks here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26699-week-one-college-football-picks/#post550147
and the week two picks are here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26833-week-two-college-football-picks/#post553337
We had another mildly successful week last week going 4-3 against the spread. I should mention that I loved Vandy at -3, well by game time the spread was actually back to -3 so if you really followed these picks you won another game but even though I would like to do so, I'm not going to call this an "official" pick just because I turned out to be correct! I was 7-0 straight up.
So we are 8-6 ATS on the year and 13-4 straight up.
Let's get straight to this week's big game for the home team!
Georgia (-6.5) at MIZZOU - It was a much appreciated sight last weekend to see a pretty damn impressive passing game just demolish Eastern Michigan (who had kind of a gritty, fairly well coached team, we will get to that later). I know the opponent wasn't anything overwhelming but last year we could not complete most of those passes against air. Drew Lock appears to be making the type of improvements that Mizzou fans hoped to see between his Freshman and Sophomore years. I'm rather optimistic about the team, and when you couple that with the fact that honestly MU lost that game in Georgia last year because of incompetent officiating on two blown calls on punts, one might expect me to pick the home team to cover easily here.
The ONLY reason I seriously considered picking MU (well besides the obvious fact that I am a bit of a homer) is because I thought the line would be closer to 10-12 points. When it seems like Vegas is begging you to bet on Georgia, the smart money is usually moving the other way. So that's one thing to consider. Still, despite an impressive offensive performance last week, MU is not tackling well and not getting pressure on the quarterback (which I think would be a key to our overall success this week) so I have to go with where the value appears to be.
GEORGIA is the pick 38-27
ku (+20) at Memphis - Man it was fun watching all the ku fans get false hope about their team after beating the mighty Rhode Island Rams! Ohio demonstrated that the ku D has a long way to go to do well against legitimate (or less than legitimate) competition. Still, Memphis didn't cover this number against SEMO last week and it least it seems like ku is still trying hard, at least for now, so this may not be a complete blowout.
Pick ku who loses 41-24
Oregon (+3) at Nebraska - People I respect keep telling me to roll with Nebraska, that they are much improved this year. Also I know there have been a few home losses in recent years, but this is going to be a tough environment for the Ducks to get accustomed to. Had Oregon not won the turnover battle against a fairly weak Virginia team, they might have been in a real dogfight. I'll stick with the team that has been covering and has been explosive on offense.
NEBRASKA wins 45-34
New Mexico State (+19) at Kentucky - Last week my Kentucky pick was (wisely) questioned by someone who disagreed with my (false) assertion that Kentucky should have the type of athletes to compete somewhat at Florida. Well, things may be going completely off the tracks here but I don't think they will quit on Stoops after two weeks here and I'll make another statement. Kentucky SHOULD have the athletes to blow these guys out. I'll continue to bet on this mess of a team.
KENTUCKY is the pick, they win 48-17
I kind of liked K-State at minus 18 or 19 but I think the value has been bet out of that game. Let's just pick them to win here.
Eastern Michigan (-2.5) at Charlotte - The eye test can be misleading but EMU had a fairly solid running game and a decent defense for their level that Missouri really wore out. Charlotte meanwhile appears to be at another level of bad. I think from what I saw EMU will be far more competitive in the MAC this year and certainly good enough to win big here.
EASTERN MICHIGAN is the pick, they win 38-23
UNLV (+13) at Central Michigan - While Central Michigan was given a gift to beat Oklahoma State, I lived through the fifth down and have no real sympathy for OSU (who benefited from a fifth down of their own last year earlier in the game vs. Kansas State).
Anyway, I never think it's a bad idea to consider betting against a team that might be "fat and happy" especially when you get a UNLV team that seems to be improving and competed fairly well at UCLA so going on the road shouldn't be a big concern.
Let's take Central Michigan to win 34-28 but UNLV to cover.
I had a few other games I was really looking at (I wonder how Wazzu responds to Mike Leach's recent tantrum, I wanted to pick the big SEC games featuring Alabama and to a lesser degree LSU or the OU vs. Ohio State game) but I can't come up with any good leans. Some of the games I liked initially, the lines moved against me.
It may not be sexy to pick "under the radar" games but winning these games help build the old "toothpick pile" just as well as hitting on Alabama (who missed the spread by 0.5 points last week!)
So let's stop with six picks this week and hopefully I am wrong about Ol' Mizzou. Enjoy the week of football and Good Luck to your (non Dawg) team!
September 14th, 2016 at 2:33:22 PM
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Just curious why do you bother to say what you are straight up- It's meaningless-
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
September 14th, 2016 at 2:47:41 PM
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I agree but some of the places I post these have casual fans who read straight up records in the paper - people would criticize me for "only being 55%" because they were reading other people straight up picks
September 14th, 2016 at 2:49:53 PM
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Just think it's misleading because most people when picking straight up would always be a huge winner
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
September 14th, 2016 at 2:58:47 PM
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I always try to focus on and put ATS results up first.
September 17th, 2016 at 5:36:02 AM
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Quote: WizardofnothingJust think it's misleading because most people when picking straight up would always be a huge winner
Most games have a money line, and if the member is winning (13-4 straight up) it's good to know. I've also read other sites where they also list the straight up records for said series or seasons(past) etc.. Lastly mate, there was a thread/link here I think about how betting a certain range of spreads straight up via the money line can be profitable long term. We might ask you what you mean by "huge winner" in terms of percentage of winners? Kind regards.
September 17th, 2016 at 5:42:14 AM
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Quote: Zourah
New Mexico State (+19) at Kentucky - Last week my Kentucky pick was (wisely) questioned by someone who disagreed with my (false) assertion that Kentucky should have the type of athletes to compete somewhat at Florida. Well, things may be going completely off the tracks here but I don't think they will quit on Stoops after two weeks here and I'll make another statement. Kentucky SHOULD have the athletes to blow these guys out. I'll continue to bet on this mess of a team.
KENTUCKY is the pick, they win 48-17
Why chase a team like Kentucky? They must be awful. It's a basketball school FYI. I don't even know where New Mexico State is nor if they play basketball but wish you luck! I'd rather "martingale" a team like Alabama who you "know" will cover at some short point in a season. But Kentucky, well I'd have to look, but following a losing program has to be miserable for most. We know the Alabama's, New England Patriots, etc. are going to eventually cover a point spread, don't we???? Just asking.
September 17th, 2016 at 5:52:17 AM
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Texas is at California. The over/under number is 81.. Do people actually bet the over with that kind of number? It seems again like you mentioned on the Georgia vs. Missouri game, the books have devised a way to trick the bettors. But 81 points? It seems like a few turnovers would quickly keep the game under. Charlie Strong used to at least be a defensive coach. I think that, along with his race, got him the Texas job. I'm perplexed. Going to research it now. Any insight? Thanks.
September 17th, 2016 at 5:57:13 AM
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Yes, the line is about 81 O/U on said game, Texas at California. I don't get it and yes, I know the windows are open if I'm so sure of myself.
For everyone's information, the live line source also indicates money coming in on Oklahoma driving that line back down to OSU minus only ONE point. Follow the money?
For everyone's information, the live line source also indicates money coming in on Oklahoma driving that line back down to OSU minus only ONE point. Follow the money?
September 18th, 2016 at 4:47:35 AM
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Sorry. Next week I'll just mind my own business and take my losses like a man should. Thanks for your picks. I won't attempt to interject as obviously I don't know diddly crap from real picks.
September 18th, 2016 at 9:40:08 AM
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Quote: WizardofnothingJust curious why do you bother to say what you are straight up- It's meaningless-
The ESPN site has a couple of (free) contests, with cash awards, in which players must pick 10 college football games (as selected by ESPN) a week straight up (not against the spread.) So, its not meaningless.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
September 18th, 2016 at 9:41:47 AM
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In terms of a tout service it really is - without posting the money lines and well as a net profit or loss it doesn't tell anything
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
September 18th, 2016 at 7:37:34 PM
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I think you're misinterpreting my intent. I have posted these picks as a way to stimulate discussion on college football on a Missouri website for nearly 20 years. I do it every single week without fail because I love talking about college football. Sometimes, someone will convince me that my pick isn't very good and it may keep me from making a bad actual wager during the weekend so I may benefit in that way. I never really wager for serious money on sports.
Honestly, the only reason I started posting them over here is I thought I might get some good feedback and the marginal cost of copying and pasting these picks is pretty close to zero.
I've never sold or tried to sell a pick In my life and I don't claim to meet that standard (such as it is). I really would not be comfortable selling my picks. I mean I watch a lot of college football but sometimes I miss an obvious angle about a game, sometimes even I miss an injury or something.
I guess if I don't get any good feedback on these picks I'll just quit posting.
Honestly, the only reason I started posting them over here is I thought I might get some good feedback and the marginal cost of copying and pasting these picks is pretty close to zero.
I've never sold or tried to sell a pick In my life and I don't claim to meet that standard (such as it is). I really would not be comfortable selling my picks. I mean I watch a lot of college football but sometimes I miss an obvious angle about a game, sometimes even I miss an injury or something.
I guess if I don't get any good feedback on these picks I'll just quit posting.
September 18th, 2016 at 7:40:49 PM
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Quote: NokTangSorry. Next week I'll just mind my own business and take my losses like a man should. Thanks for your picks. I won't attempt to interject as obviously I don't know diddly crap from real picks.
Please keep posting, I had not seen your post when I made my last comment. Maybe we should ask anyone overly serious to not visit this threat at all!
September 18th, 2016 at 7:44:58 PM
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Quote: NokTangWhy chase a team like Kentucky? They must be awful. It's a basketball school FYI. I don't even know where New Mexico State is nor if they play basketball but wish you luck! I'd rather "martingale" a team like Alabama who you "know" will cover at some short point in a season. But Kentucky, well I'd have to look, but following a losing program has to be miserable for most. We know the Alabama's, New England Patriots, etc. are going to eventually cover a point spread, don't we???? Just asking.
While UK did cover the 19 that spread kept going up so I laid off.
The thing about Kentucky is they have played some pretty stupid football this year but against certain opponents they should be able to excel just because of some of the athletes the coach has successfully recruited.
My guess is I will pick them AGAIN this week because South Carolina really isn't all that good but they've been fortunate as Joel documented elsewhere
September 20th, 2016 at 5:14:12 PM
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Here are the week four picks... feedback is encouraged and appreciated!
We had our first losing week of the season this week but we aren't exactly raking in the "toothpicks" either. We went 2-3-1 ATS to put us at 10-9 on the year vs. the Vegas number.
We did go 7-0 straight up (which I readily admit isn't worth all that much) to keep that number looking good at 20-4 on the year. I'm working late today and I need to get home so I'm going to keep this post a bit short.
MIZZOU vs. Delaware State - Man, it was fun to be at a great atmosphere in Columbia last weekend but SO FRUSTRATING. I'm not going to get into the frustrating details of that Georgia game because it's kind of old news now but now that I've calmed down a bit I can look at this game as a sign of progress with the team. Delaware State is almost certainly the worst team to ever visit MU in my lifetime. They lost to Delaware by 42 and Monomouth (are they FCS?) by 14. I really want to see what the line will be on Saturday. I'll guess 57 and still take MU with the new faster paced offense.
MU WINS 73-3 (NOT AN OFFICIAL ATS PICK)
Meanwhile, K-State hosts Coach Stec and the Fighting Teachers from Springfield, MO. I may actually go to this game. Stec has the Bears playing better but this one is probably another 40-50 point whitewash. I tease the folks in SW MO but I hope Coach Steckel gets them winning. They sure are in a tough conference.
KSU wins
I had a hard time finding ATS picks this week but we have six games I'm going with
Georgia (+7) at Ole Miss - Early game in Oxford and everyone is asking "what's wrong with Georgia"? It's more about what was right with MU last game. We are coming along and Georgia will be just fine. They have a lot of talent (as does Mississippi) and I see the upset here as we see no lead is safe for the Rebels. I like the road dog in the 11 AM games.
PICK GEORGIA 38-34
Arkansas (+6) at Texas A&M - This one is a bit tougher to pick as there is no doubt A&M is playing really well. Still, I like what I am seeing from Arkansas and they will slow the game down a bit so I feel good about taking the points.
ARKANSAS is the pick but they lose 28-27
South Carolina (+2) at Kentucky - So Kentucky played pretty awful for the dominant part of another game last week but South Carolina was SO fortunate to win last week. ECU had horrible execution in the red zone. I know it's crazy to bet on an error prone Wildcat team but I really think South Carolina is that bad and they have been really lucky.
KENTUCKY wins 27-17
Vandy (+7) at WKU - This is still kind of a big game for Western KY. and Vandy showed some signs of life vs. MTSU just to revert back to being pathetic on offense vs. Georgia Tech. Less than 300 yards of offense and less than 100 yards passing? That won't work.
I'll take WESTERN KY. 38-20
San Jose State (+6.5) at Iowa State - Iowa State isn't very good but I think the effort is there for the new coach. Since wins will be hard to come by I think they fully take advantage here.
ISU is the pick 31-17
Idaho (+14) at UNLV - Find a horrible team and bet against them I say (Charlotte was the plan but maybe people are figuring them out, did you see the EMU kickoff from the Charlotte 20 yard line by the way? Look it up!)... Idaho is losing FBS status and is awful. Let's see if UNLV lets me down again this week.
UNLV is the pick - they win 48-21
Sorry to my Nebraska friends... I have been burned too many times on this Northwestern game to make a pick!
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non-Hornet) team!
We had our first losing week of the season this week but we aren't exactly raking in the "toothpicks" either. We went 2-3-1 ATS to put us at 10-9 on the year vs. the Vegas number.
We did go 7-0 straight up (which I readily admit isn't worth all that much) to keep that number looking good at 20-4 on the year. I'm working late today and I need to get home so I'm going to keep this post a bit short.
MIZZOU vs. Delaware State - Man, it was fun to be at a great atmosphere in Columbia last weekend but SO FRUSTRATING. I'm not going to get into the frustrating details of that Georgia game because it's kind of old news now but now that I've calmed down a bit I can look at this game as a sign of progress with the team. Delaware State is almost certainly the worst team to ever visit MU in my lifetime. They lost to Delaware by 42 and Monomouth (are they FCS?) by 14. I really want to see what the line will be on Saturday. I'll guess 57 and still take MU with the new faster paced offense.
MU WINS 73-3 (NOT AN OFFICIAL ATS PICK)
Meanwhile, K-State hosts Coach Stec and the Fighting Teachers from Springfield, MO. I may actually go to this game. Stec has the Bears playing better but this one is probably another 40-50 point whitewash. I tease the folks in SW MO but I hope Coach Steckel gets them winning. They sure are in a tough conference.
KSU wins
I had a hard time finding ATS picks this week but we have six games I'm going with
Georgia (+7) at Ole Miss - Early game in Oxford and everyone is asking "what's wrong with Georgia"? It's more about what was right with MU last game. We are coming along and Georgia will be just fine. They have a lot of talent (as does Mississippi) and I see the upset here as we see no lead is safe for the Rebels. I like the road dog in the 11 AM games.
PICK GEORGIA 38-34
Arkansas (+6) at Texas A&M - This one is a bit tougher to pick as there is no doubt A&M is playing really well. Still, I like what I am seeing from Arkansas and they will slow the game down a bit so I feel good about taking the points.
ARKANSAS is the pick but they lose 28-27
South Carolina (+2) at Kentucky - So Kentucky played pretty awful for the dominant part of another game last week but South Carolina was SO fortunate to win last week. ECU had horrible execution in the red zone. I know it's crazy to bet on an error prone Wildcat team but I really think South Carolina is that bad and they have been really lucky.
KENTUCKY wins 27-17
Vandy (+7) at WKU - This is still kind of a big game for Western KY. and Vandy showed some signs of life vs. MTSU just to revert back to being pathetic on offense vs. Georgia Tech. Less than 300 yards of offense and less than 100 yards passing? That won't work.
I'll take WESTERN KY. 38-20
San Jose State (+6.5) at Iowa State - Iowa State isn't very good but I think the effort is there for the new coach. Since wins will be hard to come by I think they fully take advantage here.
ISU is the pick 31-17
Idaho (+14) at UNLV - Find a horrible team and bet against them I say (Charlotte was the plan but maybe people are figuring them out, did you see the EMU kickoff from the Charlotte 20 yard line by the way? Look it up!)... Idaho is losing FBS status and is awful. Let's see if UNLV lets me down again this week.
UNLV is the pick - they win 48-21
Sorry to my Nebraska friends... I have been burned too many times on this Northwestern game to make a pick!
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non-Hornet) team!
September 20th, 2016 at 9:16:09 PM
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Quote: ZourahH and Monomouth
I think Monomouth does a poll on the Presidential election. They showed Mr. Trump losing and he said "where is Monomouth?" and didn't believe their poll. However, with that said, we must remember as my old not deceased friend shouted to the basketball refs..."it means just as much to the kids" so I guess if they are playing, it's to win. Thanks for your kind remarks and encouragement of participation.
September 20th, 2016 at 9:19:49 PM
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Quote: Zourah
South Carolina (+2) at Kentucky - So Kentucky played pretty awful for the dominant part of another game last week but South Carolina was SO fortunate to win last week. ECU had horrible execution in the red zone. I know it's crazy to bet on an error prone Wildcat team but I really think South Carolina is that bad and they have been really lucky.
KENTUCKY wins 27-17
I still think you are crazy to chase Kentucky in football. That said, Kentucky did once recently? beat a Steve Spurirrii(sp) coached South Carolina team in Lexington. Again, I'd wait for basketball season to martingale Kentucky. Good luck. Win and done I hope for your sake with Kentucky.
September 20th, 2016 at 9:25:56 PM
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Quote: Zourah
Arkansas (+6) at Texas A&M - This one is a bit tougher to pick as there is no doubt A&M is playing really well. Still, I like what I am seeing from Arkansas and they will slow the game down a bit so I feel good about taking the points.
ARKANSAS is the pick but they lose 28-27
Getting less than 7 points, and you think they will lose? It is difficult to logical do that IMHO, bet it I mean. I'm still not convinced the Arkansas coach is the real deal and they are well know for "playing dirty" football, eye poking and ankle stomping etc..
September 21st, 2016 at 2:52:48 PM
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Quote: NokTangGetting less than 7 points, and you think they will lose? It is difficult to logical do that IMHO, bet it I mean. I'm still not convinced the Arkansas coach is the real deal and they are well know for "playing dirty" football, eye poking and ankle stomping etc..
I think it's kind of a tossup game
September 21st, 2016 at 2:53:40 PM
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Quote: NokTangI still think you are crazy to chase Kentucky in football. That said, Kentucky did once recently? beat a Steve Spurirrii(sp) coached South Carolina team in Lexington. Again, I'd wait for basketball season to martingale Kentucky. Good luck. Win and done I hope for your sake with Kentucky.
This South Carolina team is really bad though... I think they are REALLY bad... I mean I was done with Kentucky and then I saw who they were playing and the line...
September 21st, 2016 at 9:55:53 PM
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Quote: ZourahThis South Carolina team is really bad though... I think they are REALLY bad... I mean I was done with Kentucky and then I saw who they were playing and the line...
Just read the Kentucky quarterback is out.
September 22nd, 2016 at 10:46:17 AM
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Yeah - he was basically out last week when they scored 62
September 22nd, 2016 at 4:31:24 PM
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Quote: ZourahYeah - he was basically out last week when they scored 62
I didn't know that. Sure, I could have gone and looked and found out. Point being, this is what the discussion is about..exchanging information and making friends. Thanks again for encouraging postings and answering without personal attacks so common on the internet!
September 22nd, 2016 at 4:32:47 PM
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BTW, no Clemson vs. Georgia Tech pick? It kicks off soon! Please hurry! No past posting allowed!!!
September 22nd, 2016 at 6:39:45 PM
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I wanted to pull the trigger on Clemson but it's hard to bet against a team that plays a different style of football like Georgia tech so Iaid off
September 27th, 2016 at 3:22:14 PM
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A rough week for the picks and we just are not getting any momentum this year. We were 2-4 vs. the Vegas Spread and are now a sad 12-13 on the year. We didn't even do well picking straight up and we are 25-7 in that regard on the year.
The worst thing about last weekend was I saw the MU spread was 45 so I called a buddy in Las Vegas and just told him he would be wise to put some actual money on the Tigers. Well the spread jumped to 53 but I told him not to worry, we are better than most think and the big thing is DSU is absolutely horrible. So he makes a pretty big bet, MU takes mercy on DSU and shortens the game by ten minutes and even though we won 79-0 the Stations Sportsbook threw out the bet.
This is why I say it's wise just to do this for fun. The casinos pretty much always win... Even when you have great info (and believe me by the time I finished doing research I KNEW exactly what would happen in that game) the Vegas books are going to rip you off if they can find a loophole. The spread went from 43 to 54, that means nearly ALL the money was on MU so the book covered itself. UGH!!!!!!!!
Again, I just feel badly for my friend.
So my picks aren't going that well so please just treat these as just for fun and let's see how we can do on picks!
MIZZOU (+13.5) at LSU - We were some of the few fans to attend the Independence Bowl in late 2011 after it was known MU would be joining the SEC next year. The SEC has a lot of proud fans which is great but these LSU people take the cake. Nearly every person we ran into felt obligated to tell us how MU would never compete in the SEC (and NEVER get to Atlanta by winning the East, oh wait.....) and generally let us know we might be wise to shut down our football program.
Obviously, I'd really like to shut some of these people up. Here's the thing, after MU wins Saturday night (and we might not, while I think MU actually has the more complete team, this is a VERY difficult environment to win in) they will all blame the firing of Les Miles. The fact is, MU had a more complete team two weeks ago and they have a more complete team today. LSU has a fantastic running game but MU should be up to that challenge.
I promise you this, if MU wins this game it won't be because of any fluke, just like when MU won the East two years running it wasn't because the division was pathetic (obviously the West has been a fair amount better but when a team like Florida wins the East no one brings this up). I'm hesitant to pick the outright upset after Georgia appeared to be completely outclassed by Ole Miss but MU is coming around in a big way and are more than good enough to compete here.
MIZZOU wins outright 20-16
SUNY Buffalo at BC (-17.5) - I had that Buffalo cover over Army figured out but I didn't get into it on this post last week. Now Buffalo (who is not a good team) is getting more credit than they deserve based off that win over a very distracted Army team.
BOSTON COLLEGE is the pick 41-13
Memphis (+14.5) at Ole Miss - I got destroyed by Ole Miss last week but I'm going to continue to fight the tide. This Memphis team can score and I think because of that this line is a bit high.
MEMPHIS is the pick but they lose 41-35
K-State (+3.5) at West Virginia - Since WVU beat Mizzou I have been watching a bit of their games. I feel like MU would be far more competitive in a game there now but they certainly deserved to win on the day we played. Still, K-State has found some real athletes on offense and you know Coach Snyder has been holding a few things back. I'm all about the upsets this week and I LOVED this spread when it opened at 5.5.
K-STATE wins outright 38-28
Illinois (+21) at Nebraska - There appear to be a few off the field distractions at Nebraska. (I'm not getting into it much but it's all over social media if you want the details). The thing is (and again it sounds crass to try to figure out how this affects a football game) I don't expect this to be that much of a distraction to the actual team. The young man was willing to talk about the situation which is not an easy thing to do.
As far as football goes, the Iliini don't appear to be able to stop anyone and Nebraska keeps finding their way on offense. That's good enough for me.
NEBRASKA is the pick 52-14
Kentucky (+34.5) at Alabama - I know everyone thinks I will pick Kentucky every week. No, I realize they are not good at all but they had some favorable match ups. Not anymore. Again, I liked this spread a lot when it opened at 31... no matter.
ALABAMA ROLLS 55-3
Troy (-13.5) - UNLV was pretty awful in losing to Idaho last week. I am sorry for anyone who took my advice on that one. Still, I think that was a one week blip on the radar. Idaho should not be able to stop any halfway decent offense and I like how Troy has competed on the road.
TROY WINS AND COVERS 48-21
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non LSU Tiger) Team!
The worst thing about last weekend was I saw the MU spread was 45 so I called a buddy in Las Vegas and just told him he would be wise to put some actual money on the Tigers. Well the spread jumped to 53 but I told him not to worry, we are better than most think and the big thing is DSU is absolutely horrible. So he makes a pretty big bet, MU takes mercy on DSU and shortens the game by ten minutes and even though we won 79-0 the Stations Sportsbook threw out the bet.
This is why I say it's wise just to do this for fun. The casinos pretty much always win... Even when you have great info (and believe me by the time I finished doing research I KNEW exactly what would happen in that game) the Vegas books are going to rip you off if they can find a loophole. The spread went from 43 to 54, that means nearly ALL the money was on MU so the book covered itself. UGH!!!!!!!!
Again, I just feel badly for my friend.
So my picks aren't going that well so please just treat these as just for fun and let's see how we can do on picks!
MIZZOU (+13.5) at LSU - We were some of the few fans to attend the Independence Bowl in late 2011 after it was known MU would be joining the SEC next year. The SEC has a lot of proud fans which is great but these LSU people take the cake. Nearly every person we ran into felt obligated to tell us how MU would never compete in the SEC (and NEVER get to Atlanta by winning the East, oh wait.....) and generally let us know we might be wise to shut down our football program.
Obviously, I'd really like to shut some of these people up. Here's the thing, after MU wins Saturday night (and we might not, while I think MU actually has the more complete team, this is a VERY difficult environment to win in) they will all blame the firing of Les Miles. The fact is, MU had a more complete team two weeks ago and they have a more complete team today. LSU has a fantastic running game but MU should be up to that challenge.
I promise you this, if MU wins this game it won't be because of any fluke, just like when MU won the East two years running it wasn't because the division was pathetic (obviously the West has been a fair amount better but when a team like Florida wins the East no one brings this up). I'm hesitant to pick the outright upset after Georgia appeared to be completely outclassed by Ole Miss but MU is coming around in a big way and are more than good enough to compete here.
MIZZOU wins outright 20-16
SUNY Buffalo at BC (-17.5) - I had that Buffalo cover over Army figured out but I didn't get into it on this post last week. Now Buffalo (who is not a good team) is getting more credit than they deserve based off that win over a very distracted Army team.
BOSTON COLLEGE is the pick 41-13
Memphis (+14.5) at Ole Miss - I got destroyed by Ole Miss last week but I'm going to continue to fight the tide. This Memphis team can score and I think because of that this line is a bit high.
MEMPHIS is the pick but they lose 41-35
K-State (+3.5) at West Virginia - Since WVU beat Mizzou I have been watching a bit of their games. I feel like MU would be far more competitive in a game there now but they certainly deserved to win on the day we played. Still, K-State has found some real athletes on offense and you know Coach Snyder has been holding a few things back. I'm all about the upsets this week and I LOVED this spread when it opened at 5.5.
K-STATE wins outright 38-28
Illinois (+21) at Nebraska - There appear to be a few off the field distractions at Nebraska. (I'm not getting into it much but it's all over social media if you want the details). The thing is (and again it sounds crass to try to figure out how this affects a football game) I don't expect this to be that much of a distraction to the actual team. The young man was willing to talk about the situation which is not an easy thing to do.
As far as football goes, the Iliini don't appear to be able to stop anyone and Nebraska keeps finding their way on offense. That's good enough for me.
NEBRASKA is the pick 52-14
Kentucky (+34.5) at Alabama - I know everyone thinks I will pick Kentucky every week. No, I realize they are not good at all but they had some favorable match ups. Not anymore. Again, I liked this spread a lot when it opened at 31... no matter.
ALABAMA ROLLS 55-3
Troy (-13.5) - UNLV was pretty awful in losing to Idaho last week. I am sorry for anyone who took my advice on that one. Still, I think that was a one week blip on the radar. Idaho should not be able to stop any halfway decent offense and I like how Troy has competed on the road.
TROY WINS AND COVERS 48-21
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non LSU Tiger) Team!
September 28th, 2016 at 7:27:23 PM
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Quote: Zourah
The worst thing about last weekend was I saw the MU spread was 45 so I called a buddy in Las Vegas and just told him he would be wise to put some actual money on the Tigers. Well the spread jumped to 53 but I told him not to worry, we are better than most think and the big thing is DSU is absolutely horrible. So he makes a pretty big bet, MU takes mercy on DSU and shortens the game by ten minutes and even though we won 79-0 the Stations Sportsbook threw out the bet.
I'd not seen this prior. Do you know if all the sports books called it a no-contest or just Stations? It seems a bit unreasonable but as you said, they can do what they want. Thanks.
September 28th, 2016 at 8:11:26 PM
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I don't know - apparently five dines called it a no bet also
I know at least one person who cashed in on Missouri but that wasn't in Vegas
I know at least one person who cashed in on Missouri but that wasn't in Vegas
October 6th, 2016 at 9:56:36 AM
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Folks, it is getting to be one of those crazy weeks at work and I am recovering from taking time over the weekend to make the four hour drive (for me) to Columbia on a non football weekend for the Roots, Blues, and Bar-B-Q festival. I couldn't pass up the chance to see my favorite band (the Avett Brothers) play in my favorite town.
Still, the picks didn't go well (3-4 ATS) and we are now 15-17 Against the Spread on the year. We are 30-9 straight up but obviously we want to hit winners against the spread. The MU game was horrible but the fact is MU could have beaten the LSU team that played, say Mississippi State which was what I was hoping to see. WHile MU's performance wasn't good this had a lot more to do with the opponent finally playing to their potential so I guess we just have to flush that game and move on. Again, no MU game this week and I am very busy so the picks will be short and sweet.
TCU (-29) at ku - every so often ku will show up and give a marginally decent effort against a disinterested team. It's rolling the dice to suggest this but something tells me this is the week that happens.
ku ONLY LOSES BY 24!!!
Army (+4) at Duke - I just don't bet against David Cutcliffe in games like this. Also the Army team has had to deal with the tragic loss of a teammate. The first week after that occured they were dominant but I think now it could be a distraction.
DUKE is the pick 34-24
Texas Tech (+7.5) at K-State - The Texas Tech QB probably won't play but you have to assume they can find a capable backup. K-State has a really strong defense and while I hate the hook, I think the Cats show up well for a home crowd that finally gets to see a real opponent.
Pick K-STATE 37-24
Vandy (+3) at Kentucky - I finally pick against Kentucky and they cover. This should be a fairly ugly game similar to the South Carolina games against these teams but I do think UK is slightly better than Vandy so I'll take the home team here.
KENTUCKY wins and covers 20-10 Let's also take UNDER 51.5 as a separate wager here.
LSU (-2.5) at Florida - Florida's offense is iffy... Maybe I'm overreacting but damn LSU was athletic.
LSU IS THE PICK 31-16
East Carolina (+20) at South Florida - A wise man once said, "Find a crappy team, and keep betting against them"... ECU is far worse than most think.
PICK USF 48-13
That's all for this week! Good luck to your team!
Still, the picks didn't go well (3-4 ATS) and we are now 15-17 Against the Spread on the year. We are 30-9 straight up but obviously we want to hit winners against the spread. The MU game was horrible but the fact is MU could have beaten the LSU team that played, say Mississippi State which was what I was hoping to see. WHile MU's performance wasn't good this had a lot more to do with the opponent finally playing to their potential so I guess we just have to flush that game and move on. Again, no MU game this week and I am very busy so the picks will be short and sweet.
TCU (-29) at ku - every so often ku will show up and give a marginally decent effort against a disinterested team. It's rolling the dice to suggest this but something tells me this is the week that happens.
ku ONLY LOSES BY 24!!!
Army (+4) at Duke - I just don't bet against David Cutcliffe in games like this. Also the Army team has had to deal with the tragic loss of a teammate. The first week after that occured they were dominant but I think now it could be a distraction.
DUKE is the pick 34-24
Texas Tech (+7.5) at K-State - The Texas Tech QB probably won't play but you have to assume they can find a capable backup. K-State has a really strong defense and while I hate the hook, I think the Cats show up well for a home crowd that finally gets to see a real opponent.
Pick K-STATE 37-24
Vandy (+3) at Kentucky - I finally pick against Kentucky and they cover. This should be a fairly ugly game similar to the South Carolina games against these teams but I do think UK is slightly better than Vandy so I'll take the home team here.
KENTUCKY wins and covers 20-10 Let's also take UNDER 51.5 as a separate wager here.
LSU (-2.5) at Florida - Florida's offense is iffy... Maybe I'm overreacting but damn LSU was athletic.
LSU IS THE PICK 31-16
East Carolina (+20) at South Florida - A wise man once said, "Find a crappy team, and keep betting against them"... ECU is far worse than most think.
PICK USF 48-13
That's all for this week! Good luck to your team!
October 6th, 2016 at 7:54:41 PM
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I'm adding one more official pick to replace the LSU game.. UNDER 41 in the (postponed until Sunday) UGA vs. South Carolina game.
October 13th, 2016 at 8:58:54 AM
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A MUCH better week for the picks last week. I was 4-2 against the spread given the lines I listed BUT the USF line moved dramatically so for most bettors I was 5-1 with being a horrible call at the K-State game away from being 6-0. Still, I will call it a 4-2 week.
So I am back to 19-19 ATS on the year (35-9 straight up) with a chance to get over .500 this week which isn't much but it's a start.
(I want to keep trying on the K-State games but I think the OU spread is about right so I am going to sit that one out).
On to the games!
Missouri (+13.5) at Florida - It would be much easier to pick this game if I had seen Florida play LSU. I know Florida would look better than MU did in that game as MU looked horrible but I still think the overall athleticism at LSU is at a slightly higher level. Missouri is going to have to get some receivers open, tackle better, and maybe slow down that tempo on occasion. Still, I think the Tigers have more going for them than that awful LSU game would indicate and I think Florida is somewhat vulnerable to some defensive pressure.
Also let's not forget that the last time MU went to Florida the Tigers were dominant. We are dealing with new coaches and new programs but that does reduce the nerves of going on the road a bit. A win would really make this season look a lot different but we have too many holes right now to expect that.
PICK MIZZOU who does lose this one 24-20
Nebraska (-3.5) at Indiana - It's tough to pick road favorites especially since IU has greatly improved their overall athleticism and has that Michigan State win in their last home game. I heard longtime Nebraska favorite Rick Neuheisel pick IU to win outright. I think they are moving in the right direction, clearly but unless Armstrong is out or something, I think there is some value here for the road team which will have strong fan support also in Bloomington.
Pick NEBRASKA 34-23
Wake Forest (+21.5) at Florida State - Here is a team that beat Indiana. Find a good coach who has his team believing good things will happen and bet on them. It's one of my favorite philosophies. Dave Clawson certainly meets that bill.
Pick WAKE who loses 30-21
Iowa (-12.5) at Purdue - beating Illinois doesn't mean that Purdue is any good.
Pick IOWA 41-17
Iowa State (+14) at Texas - Matt Campbell is another good coach. They are a few years away but Texas can't stop anyone.
Pick ISU who loses 38-34
West Virginia (PICK EM) at Texas Tech - I have gone back and forth on this one but I watched Texas Tech in person last week and I have also watched quite a bit of WVU. I think the first road trip for WVU can't get much rougher and while the Tech defense is underwhelming, I think they will score enough to put a lot of pressure on the Mountaineers who have missed scoring opportunities most weeks.
PICK TEXAS TECH 48-42
UCONN (+19.5) at South Florida - I watched a far amount of South Florida last week and I saw a team with no killer instinct that was perfectly happy to let ECU hang around. UCONN is a bit better than ECU and I think they certainly do keep this competitive as they have most games this year.
UCONN loses but is the pick 31-23
I'm inclined to go with Ole Miss but I want to see a bit more of them and Arkansas. I have no idea on Bama vs. UT but that line has moved up quite a bit.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Gator) team!
So I am back to 19-19 ATS on the year (35-9 straight up) with a chance to get over .500 this week which isn't much but it's a start.
(I want to keep trying on the K-State games but I think the OU spread is about right so I am going to sit that one out).
On to the games!
Missouri (+13.5) at Florida - It would be much easier to pick this game if I had seen Florida play LSU. I know Florida would look better than MU did in that game as MU looked horrible but I still think the overall athleticism at LSU is at a slightly higher level. Missouri is going to have to get some receivers open, tackle better, and maybe slow down that tempo on occasion. Still, I think the Tigers have more going for them than that awful LSU game would indicate and I think Florida is somewhat vulnerable to some defensive pressure.
Also let's not forget that the last time MU went to Florida the Tigers were dominant. We are dealing with new coaches and new programs but that does reduce the nerves of going on the road a bit. A win would really make this season look a lot different but we have too many holes right now to expect that.
PICK MIZZOU who does lose this one 24-20
Nebraska (-3.5) at Indiana - It's tough to pick road favorites especially since IU has greatly improved their overall athleticism and has that Michigan State win in their last home game. I heard longtime Nebraska favorite Rick Neuheisel pick IU to win outright. I think they are moving in the right direction, clearly but unless Armstrong is out or something, I think there is some value here for the road team which will have strong fan support also in Bloomington.
Pick NEBRASKA 34-23
Wake Forest (+21.5) at Florida State - Here is a team that beat Indiana. Find a good coach who has his team believing good things will happen and bet on them. It's one of my favorite philosophies. Dave Clawson certainly meets that bill.
Pick WAKE who loses 30-21
Iowa (-12.5) at Purdue - beating Illinois doesn't mean that Purdue is any good.
Pick IOWA 41-17
Iowa State (+14) at Texas - Matt Campbell is another good coach. They are a few years away but Texas can't stop anyone.
Pick ISU who loses 38-34
West Virginia (PICK EM) at Texas Tech - I have gone back and forth on this one but I watched Texas Tech in person last week and I have also watched quite a bit of WVU. I think the first road trip for WVU can't get much rougher and while the Tech defense is underwhelming, I think they will score enough to put a lot of pressure on the Mountaineers who have missed scoring opportunities most weeks.
PICK TEXAS TECH 48-42
UCONN (+19.5) at South Florida - I watched a far amount of South Florida last week and I saw a team with no killer instinct that was perfectly happy to let ECU hang around. UCONN is a bit better than ECU and I think they certainly do keep this competitive as they have most games this year.
UCONN loses but is the pick 31-23
I'm inclined to go with Ole Miss but I want to see a bit more of them and Arkansas. I have no idea on Bama vs. UT but that line has moved up quite a bit.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Gator) team!
October 20th, 2016 at 12:11:43 PM
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Time keeps running short for me! It's Thursday afternoon and I still haven't finished (or started) posting these picks. That's not good. What is good news is that I went 4-3 ATS last week which puts us at 23-22 on the year. Now, we are still losing some virtual money due to the juice but we've had some decent weeks lately. (For those interested I am 41-10 on straight up picks).
Again, time is wasting so on to the games!
MTSU (+7) at MIZZOU - I LOVED this game when it opned at 4 but smart money (I think) keeps pushing the line up higher and higher. MU has looked pretty awful these last couple weeks but they have played elite defenses. Vanderbilt ran all over these guys and despite possibly having an NFL QB, I think the Tigers are a little better than some may think. The Eastern Michigan blowout win factors in a bit here as a comparison. Note I have been AWFUL on picking MU games this year so beware!
We need this win obviously and I don't see the odds of MU winning all four of these upcoming games as very good at all but let's take them one at a time.
PICK MIZZOU 45-28
Oklahoma State (-23.5) at ku - This line keeps dropping which is a surprise to me. Gundy likes to run up the score and the TCU game was kind of more about TCU being asleep IMO.
OKIE STATE is the pick 45-7
Massachusetts (+20.5) at South Carolina - USC (east) has a really underwhelming offense so when I get this many points against a team that probably can score ten or more I take it.
Pick UMASS who loses 27-10
Purdue (+24) at Nebraska - Call this a look ahead to Wisconsin game for the Huskers and I noticed how hard Purdue (who may be fired up for the new coach) played in a hopeless situation to make that Iowa spread closer than it should have been.
PICK PURDUE who loses 34-17
Wisconsin (+3.5) at Iowa - Everyone wants to bury Iowa after that NDSU loss but it's Wisconsin that has to focus after that huge disappointment last week. Give me the live home dog.
IOWA WINS 21-16
TCU (+6) at West Virginia - I keep picking against the Mountaineers and I keep missing BUT I think they are getting a little too much love for a great defensive performance against Tech. TCU is another live dog here.
PICK TCU although they lose 28-27
Colorado State (+2) at UNLV - CSU really competed well at Boise State and they seem to be playing well these past few weeks. UNLV lost to IDAHO at home so the home field advantage can't be much. Honestly, this one is kind of a hunch.
PICK CSU to win 31-23
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Blue Raider) team!
Again, time is wasting so on to the games!
MTSU (+7) at MIZZOU - I LOVED this game when it opned at 4 but smart money (I think) keeps pushing the line up higher and higher. MU has looked pretty awful these last couple weeks but they have played elite defenses. Vanderbilt ran all over these guys and despite possibly having an NFL QB, I think the Tigers are a little better than some may think. The Eastern Michigan blowout win factors in a bit here as a comparison. Note I have been AWFUL on picking MU games this year so beware!
We need this win obviously and I don't see the odds of MU winning all four of these upcoming games as very good at all but let's take them one at a time.
PICK MIZZOU 45-28
Oklahoma State (-23.5) at ku - This line keeps dropping which is a surprise to me. Gundy likes to run up the score and the TCU game was kind of more about TCU being asleep IMO.
OKIE STATE is the pick 45-7
Massachusetts (+20.5) at South Carolina - USC (east) has a really underwhelming offense so when I get this many points against a team that probably can score ten or more I take it.
Pick UMASS who loses 27-10
Purdue (+24) at Nebraska - Call this a look ahead to Wisconsin game for the Huskers and I noticed how hard Purdue (who may be fired up for the new coach) played in a hopeless situation to make that Iowa spread closer than it should have been.
PICK PURDUE who loses 34-17
Wisconsin (+3.5) at Iowa - Everyone wants to bury Iowa after that NDSU loss but it's Wisconsin that has to focus after that huge disappointment last week. Give me the live home dog.
IOWA WINS 21-16
TCU (+6) at West Virginia - I keep picking against the Mountaineers and I keep missing BUT I think they are getting a little too much love for a great defensive performance against Tech. TCU is another live dog here.
PICK TCU although they lose 28-27
Colorado State (+2) at UNLV - CSU really competed well at Boise State and they seem to be playing well these past few weeks. UNLV lost to IDAHO at home so the home field advantage can't be much. Honestly, this one is kind of a hunch.
PICK CSU to win 31-23
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Blue Raider) team!
October 20th, 2016 at 12:26:05 PM
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Wisconsin is -3.5, your write up is correct but your number is wrong.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 20th, 2016 at 7:26:12 PM
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Yes - typo there thanks
October 20th, 2016 at 8:29:36 PM
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A quick check shows you are 0-5 ATS in games involving Missouri. Eliminate Mizzou games and your ATS record improves. Perhaps MTSU is the Cold Stone Lock of Century...of the Week?
*Extra credit for those who recognize the reference.
October 20th, 2016 at 9:10:42 PM
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I'd give that post a like if I could! I usually do pretty well on MU games
October 22nd, 2016 at 9:51:16 AM
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Quote: KeeneoneA quick check shows you are 0-5 ATS in games involving Missouri. Eliminate Mizzou games and your ATS record improves. Perhaps MTSU is the Cold Stone Lock of Century...of the Week?
*Extra credit for those who recognize the reference.
"But, Philly do got one trick up their sleeve this week...THEY'RE PLAYIN' THE JETS!!!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvWseXDsK_Q
Best build-up ever.
It's sad that the Stone Cold Lock of the Century...Of The Week does not seem to be happening this year.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 22nd, 2016 at 5:02:32 PM
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Quote: ZourahNote I have been AWFUL on picking MU games this year so beware!
And it continues.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 22nd, 2016 at 9:51:02 PM
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Quote: Mission146Quote: KeeneoneA quick check shows you are 0-5 ATS in games involving Missouri. Eliminate Mizzou games and your ATS record improves. Perhaps MTSU is the Cold Stone Lock of Century...of the Week?
*Extra credit for those who recognize the reference.
"But, Philly do got one trick up their sleeve this week...THEY'RE PLAYIN' THE JETS!!!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvWseXDsK_Q
Best build-up ever.
It's sad that the Stone Cold Lock of the Century...Of The Week does not seem to be happening this year.
I have missed Carl's "locks" this season. So funny. Your post made me check the 2015 game result from the video. Philly won 24-17 (as predicted by Carl). Good times.
October 23rd, 2016 at 6:17:21 AM
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Quote: Keeneone
I have missed Carl's "locks" this season. So funny. Your post made me check the 2015 game result from the video. Philly won 24-17 (as predicted by Carl). Good times.
No, that's what I meant. You haven't missed anything because they are not happening, or if they are, they are not being posted to YouTube via Adult Swim.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 27th, 2016 at 9:52:37 AM
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While it was a horrible week for the Missouri Tigers last week, it was another okay week for the picks as I went 4-3 ATS to climb up to an almost profitable 26-24 on the year ATS. Just to keep track, I am 46-12 just picking winners straight up on the year.
Once again, I have let the week get away from me a bit so I need to hurry up and get these picks posted on Thursday before games get started!
Kentucky (+5) at MIZZOU - I don't know if any of you are familiar with Scott Wetzel but he is one of the better sports talk show hosts on the radio out there. HE always likes to give his "opposite" picks suggesting that when Vegas really wants you to play a side on a game, it's for a reason and you should bet the game the other way. The Auburn line moving up and up last week when all the money was on Arkansas reinforced this to me. I rarely do this myself but this line makes zero sense to me (but the MTSU line was the same deal) so what the heck.
First of all, I am 0-6 picking MU games ATS this year so I need to try something. We have injuries they are figuring their injury problems out. They have momentum, we have zero momentum. The game is at 11 AM and the crowd won't be very excited. What the hell, I'll take Missouri but if you bet on this game you probably have real issues.
Pick MIZZOU I guess! 34-23
HERE IS A POSTSCRIPT WHICH HAS BEEN BOTHERING ME FOR A WHILE
By the way, this stupid 180 mile an hour offense AT ALL TIMES is not only leading to five hour games which may keep some of your fans away (I realize this really shouldn't affect your strategy but still, my Dad is fairly old and he can't get to his seat an hour early to avoid getting bumped and then sit through a five hour game) but THIS IS WHY SO MANY PEOPLE ARE GETTING INJURED. IF YOU PLAY 50% MORE SNAPS THAN OTHER TEAMS YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE MORE INJURIES. Sorry, I had to get that off of my chest.
Tennessee (-13.5) at South Carolina - Bye week for Tennessee into the easier part of their schedule. They SHOULD be focused (with UT, you never know) and I've done well fading USC games.
PICK TENNESSEE 31-7
Georgia +7.5 VS. Florida (Cocktail Party) - I know everyone is down on Georgia after losing to Vandy but that really was kind of a fluke if you look at the total yards, flow of the game, etc. While both teams are coming off bye weeks, I think the motivation edge is with Georgia and I think they can actually run the ball on Florida. Because of that, give me the points.
Pick UGA who loses 28-27
Nebraska (+9) at Wisconsin - That Purdue game went almost exactly as I predicted. You can't read too much into a fired up Purdue team playing for their recently fired coach. Wisconsin doesn't score that much against strong teams so again, I love the points here.
NEBRASKA is the pick, let's say they lose 21-20
Washington State (-13) at Oregon State - Maybe I am just picking this game because I love what Mike Leach said about Cub fans but I really don't think the OSU defense can do enough to keep this one close. They tacked on some meaningless scores vs. Washington but were really destroyed in that game. WAZZU is playing at a very high level.
WASHINGTON STATE is the pick 41-17
K-State (-6.5) at Iowa State - It's hard to give points when betting on K-State, they have managed to make their last two wins closer than they really should have been. Given the history of this series in Ames and the effort ISU has been playing with, I really like the home team here to get the backdoor cover but not win which is a small window. The nature of K-State running the clock so much leads to closer games on average.
Pick ISU who loses 24-20
Middle Tennessee (-17) at Florida International - MTSU is a good team, they were not better than I expected though, MU really did blow that game with stupid penalties and turnovers but MTSU also played a rather clean game and deserved to win (although I could complain about some brutal kind of one sided calls late in the game but anyway)... I do think they are a far superior team here and will build off their momentum.
PICK MTSU 45-17
UCONN (+7) at ECU - ECU just isn't any good. I don't know if UCONN will be affected by (not) losing that "Civil Conflict" trophy or the embarrassment it caused but from what I can tell they are the superior team here.
PICK UCONN outright 20-17
I am going to stop there Baylor seems just TOO obvious and Clemson should win but the line keeps moving the wrong way.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Wildcat) team!
Once again, I have let the week get away from me a bit so I need to hurry up and get these picks posted on Thursday before games get started!
Kentucky (+5) at MIZZOU - I don't know if any of you are familiar with Scott Wetzel but he is one of the better sports talk show hosts on the radio out there. HE always likes to give his "opposite" picks suggesting that when Vegas really wants you to play a side on a game, it's for a reason and you should bet the game the other way. The Auburn line moving up and up last week when all the money was on Arkansas reinforced this to me. I rarely do this myself but this line makes zero sense to me (but the MTSU line was the same deal) so what the heck.
First of all, I am 0-6 picking MU games ATS this year so I need to try something. We have injuries they are figuring their injury problems out. They have momentum, we have zero momentum. The game is at 11 AM and the crowd won't be very excited. What the hell, I'll take Missouri but if you bet on this game you probably have real issues.
Pick MIZZOU I guess! 34-23
HERE IS A POSTSCRIPT WHICH HAS BEEN BOTHERING ME FOR A WHILE
By the way, this stupid 180 mile an hour offense AT ALL TIMES is not only leading to five hour games which may keep some of your fans away (I realize this really shouldn't affect your strategy but still, my Dad is fairly old and he can't get to his seat an hour early to avoid getting bumped and then sit through a five hour game) but THIS IS WHY SO MANY PEOPLE ARE GETTING INJURED. IF YOU PLAY 50% MORE SNAPS THAN OTHER TEAMS YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE MORE INJURIES. Sorry, I had to get that off of my chest.
Tennessee (-13.5) at South Carolina - Bye week for Tennessee into the easier part of their schedule. They SHOULD be focused (with UT, you never know) and I've done well fading USC games.
PICK TENNESSEE 31-7
Georgia +7.5 VS. Florida (Cocktail Party) - I know everyone is down on Georgia after losing to Vandy but that really was kind of a fluke if you look at the total yards, flow of the game, etc. While both teams are coming off bye weeks, I think the motivation edge is with Georgia and I think they can actually run the ball on Florida. Because of that, give me the points.
Pick UGA who loses 28-27
Nebraska (+9) at Wisconsin - That Purdue game went almost exactly as I predicted. You can't read too much into a fired up Purdue team playing for their recently fired coach. Wisconsin doesn't score that much against strong teams so again, I love the points here.
NEBRASKA is the pick, let's say they lose 21-20
Washington State (-13) at Oregon State - Maybe I am just picking this game because I love what Mike Leach said about Cub fans but I really don't think the OSU defense can do enough to keep this one close. They tacked on some meaningless scores vs. Washington but were really destroyed in that game. WAZZU is playing at a very high level.
WASHINGTON STATE is the pick 41-17
K-State (-6.5) at Iowa State - It's hard to give points when betting on K-State, they have managed to make their last two wins closer than they really should have been. Given the history of this series in Ames and the effort ISU has been playing with, I really like the home team here to get the backdoor cover but not win which is a small window. The nature of K-State running the clock so much leads to closer games on average.
Pick ISU who loses 24-20
Middle Tennessee (-17) at Florida International - MTSU is a good team, they were not better than I expected though, MU really did blow that game with stupid penalties and turnovers but MTSU also played a rather clean game and deserved to win (although I could complain about some brutal kind of one sided calls late in the game but anyway)... I do think they are a far superior team here and will build off their momentum.
PICK MTSU 45-17
UCONN (+7) at ECU - ECU just isn't any good. I don't know if UCONN will be affected by (not) losing that "Civil Conflict" trophy or the embarrassment it caused but from what I can tell they are the superior team here.
PICK UCONN outright 20-17
I am going to stop there Baylor seems just TOO obvious and Clemson should win but the line keeps moving the wrong way.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Wildcat) team!
November 2nd, 2016 at 3:16:09 PM
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Folks, I have to tell you, I am discouraged with Missouri football (who wouldn't be) and with my picks. I've been trying to do some research to improve but I'm feeling a bit less confident than usual on the picks. Nonetheless, we will see if we can figure a few things out and turn around a bad year on the picks.
I am 28-30 ATS after an embarrassing 2-6 week and I am 51-15 straight up which sounds nice but isn't really meaningful.
Let's see if we can't at least pull back to .500 ATS this week!
MIZZOU (+7) at South Carolina - Okay so last year when Missouri played South Carolina it was probably the bright spot of an awful year as Drew Lock was very efficient (albeit with short passes) and the Tigers were a bit conservative but rather dominant in the game. I actually think that getting away from home might be what this team needs given their uninspired performance where Kentucky physically manhandled them.
I realize they elected not to show up (at least not on offense) in the first half of either the Florida or the LSU games but this is an opponent they should be able to compete against. Again, anyone who wagers actual funds on MU at this point has to have their sanity questioned but I look at the power ratings and reflect on last year's game and despite a great win for South Carolina over Tennessee I think this game will be competitive. I guess that's why I'm 0-7 picking MU games ATS this year!
Pick - Missouri! Tigers lose 28-27 on some sort of an awful, frustrating, mistake.
Navy (+6.5) at Notre Dame - Navy has struggled a bit too much on defense for me to go with them here. ND has put up quite a few points against questionable defenses.
Pick Notre Dame - 45-34
Louisville (-25) at BC - BC can't score that much and while Louisville has had some close games, they don't exactly let up when they are blowing someone out.
Pick - LOUISVILLE 52-14
ku (+34) vs. West Virginia - This line is probably not too far off but ku isn't stopping this running attack and when my team is doing horrible it's a bit of fun to see that at least ku is even worse!
Pick WEST VIRGINIA 56-10
I want to pick K-State vs. Oklahoma State but I don't see value in that spread.
Georgia (-2) at Kentucky - I keep riding with Georgia and it's killing my picks but Kentucky is VERY one dimensional on offense, it's just that MU couldn't stop the run. I think Georgia has far more talent than they have shown lately. I think it comes out here in a big way.
Pick GEORGIA 38-24
Washington (-16.5) at Cal - Cal can't stop anyone and UW can't be happy about that #5 ranking. I suspect they have the chance to run it up here and they do so.
Pick WASHINGTON 55-24
Alabama (-8) at LSU - LSU has a pretty amazing defense and they are now improving on offense. We've had a big discussion about this among some friends and I've been convinced. This shapes up to be a close game and I know it's insane to bet against the juggernaut that is Alabama but....
Pick LSU who loses a heart breaker 21-20
I know I have some Nebraska readers and I want to go with that game but that number seems almost a bit too high like Vegas is begging me to play the Huskers. I'll sit that one out.
Virginia (+3) at Wake Forest - Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses. The difference is Wake Forest just had way too many turnovers last week and critical errors. I think they get that figured out this week and I really like this line at home.
PICK WAKE FOREST 24-13
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non-Gamecock) team!
I am 28-30 ATS after an embarrassing 2-6 week and I am 51-15 straight up which sounds nice but isn't really meaningful.
Let's see if we can't at least pull back to .500 ATS this week!
MIZZOU (+7) at South Carolina - Okay so last year when Missouri played South Carolina it was probably the bright spot of an awful year as Drew Lock was very efficient (albeit with short passes) and the Tigers were a bit conservative but rather dominant in the game. I actually think that getting away from home might be what this team needs given their uninspired performance where Kentucky physically manhandled them.
I realize they elected not to show up (at least not on offense) in the first half of either the Florida or the LSU games but this is an opponent they should be able to compete against. Again, anyone who wagers actual funds on MU at this point has to have their sanity questioned but I look at the power ratings and reflect on last year's game and despite a great win for South Carolina over Tennessee I think this game will be competitive. I guess that's why I'm 0-7 picking MU games ATS this year!
Pick - Missouri! Tigers lose 28-27 on some sort of an awful, frustrating, mistake.
Navy (+6.5) at Notre Dame - Navy has struggled a bit too much on defense for me to go with them here. ND has put up quite a few points against questionable defenses.
Pick Notre Dame - 45-34
Louisville (-25) at BC - BC can't score that much and while Louisville has had some close games, they don't exactly let up when they are blowing someone out.
Pick - LOUISVILLE 52-14
ku (+34) vs. West Virginia - This line is probably not too far off but ku isn't stopping this running attack and when my team is doing horrible it's a bit of fun to see that at least ku is even worse!
Pick WEST VIRGINIA 56-10
I want to pick K-State vs. Oklahoma State but I don't see value in that spread.
Georgia (-2) at Kentucky - I keep riding with Georgia and it's killing my picks but Kentucky is VERY one dimensional on offense, it's just that MU couldn't stop the run. I think Georgia has far more talent than they have shown lately. I think it comes out here in a big way.
Pick GEORGIA 38-24
Washington (-16.5) at Cal - Cal can't stop anyone and UW can't be happy about that #5 ranking. I suspect they have the chance to run it up here and they do so.
Pick WASHINGTON 55-24
Alabama (-8) at LSU - LSU has a pretty amazing defense and they are now improving on offense. We've had a big discussion about this among some friends and I've been convinced. This shapes up to be a close game and I know it's insane to bet against the juggernaut that is Alabama but....
Pick LSU who loses a heart breaker 21-20
I know I have some Nebraska readers and I want to go with that game but that number seems almost a bit too high like Vegas is begging me to play the Huskers. I'll sit that one out.
Virginia (+3) at Wake Forest - Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses. The difference is Wake Forest just had way too many turnovers last week and critical errors. I think they get that figured out this week and I really like this line at home.
PICK WAKE FOREST 24-13
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non-Gamecock) team!
November 4th, 2016 at 11:50:27 AM
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You are 42 and 12 losses? You have all your picks documented here indicating that?
Are you actually betting them yourself? If so what unit size?
Should be betting 2k per game.
Are you actually betting them yourself? If so what unit size?
Should be betting 2k per game.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 4th, 2016 at 12:15:41 PM
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Quote: ZourahWashington (-16.5) at Cal - Cal can't stop anyone and UW can't be happy about that #5 ranking. I suspect they have the chance to run it up here and they do so.
Pick WASHINGTON 55-24
Cal can't stop anyone...except Texas and Utah, apparently. You're right about one thing, though; Washington has an excuse to run it up - it just might get them into the Peach or Fiesta Bowl. I have a gut feeling that either Washington runs away with this one or somehow Cal finds a way to steal it.
November 4th, 2016 at 5:11:36 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyCal can't stop anyone...except Texas and Utah, apparently. You're right about one thing, though; Washington has an excuse to run it up - it just might get them into the Peach or Fiesta Bowl. I have a gut feeling that either Washington runs away with this one or somehow Cal finds a way to steal it.
I lean towards WASH running this one up. Unhappy with #5 in Playoff standings. They could have easily crushed OSU (by more than they did) and others, but coasted to victory. It is unfortunate teams need to run up the score to get others to notice their ability...
November 5th, 2016 at 12:51:24 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfYou are 42 and 12 losses? You have all your picks documented here indicating that?
Are you actually betting them yourself? If so what unit size?
Should be betting 2k per game.
I thought I clearly stated I was 28 and 30 against the spread. Not a get rich quick proposition.
These are games that I typically plan to bet but I don't always follow through. I have a Facebook group that I'm a part of where we all kind of discuss different games including my picks.
Tgese are the games I plan on betting on when I post earlier in the week but I've been talked out of some and I listen to other people's suggestions. A typical wager for me hypothetically would range between 25 and 150 a game but it would be very rare that I would go above 75.
November 5th, 2016 at 12:53:49 AM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyCal can't stop anyone...except Texas and Utah, apparently. You're right about one thing, though; Washington has an excuse to run it up - it just might get them into the Peach or Fiesta Bowl. I have a gut feeling that either Washington runs away with this one or somehow Cal finds a way to steal it.
Texas scored 43 points and had 568 yards of total offense. California won the game but they did not stop Texas on offense which was my point.
November 10th, 2016 at 3:58:14 PM
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Well since these are super late I will hold off on picking any Thursday night games. As MU continues to slog through a miserable season, it gets to be a bit tougher to come up with these picks but I have done some research and will try to get back on the winning track.
Last week 4-4 ATS, 7-1 SU
On the year 32-34 ATS, 58-16 SU
Vanderbilt (+3.5) at MIZZOU - Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, fool me five straight times I probably need to have my head examined. Sorry guys, the crowd won't be good (I'll be there though) and the effort level or concentration level or something on this team can be spotty at times.
VANDY wins outright 30-24. This spread seems pretty far off
Iowa State (-10) at ku - I know some like to exaggerate and claim otherwise but we still are quite a bit better than ku. ISU keeps playing hard and they have enough to win comfortably here.
PICK ISU 37-13
Army (+13.5) at Notre Dame - I know they lost to Navy last week but I think that has created a bit of an overreaction type spread here. Outside of a weird Wake Forest game, Army is trending in the wrong direction.
PICK NOTRE DAME 34 14
Auburn (+10.5) at Georgia - I give the Dawgs a shot at the upset here actually. They are getting a bit healthy and I don't know how great it is to have a less than 100% QB coming into Athens.
PICK GEORGIA - THEY LOSE 27-24
Rutgers (+14.5) at Michigan State - Tough to bet this game but Rutgers keeps being competitive against like teams. With little to play for in East Lansing I expect that to continue.
PICK RUTGERS THEY LOSE 31 24
Wyoming (-7.5) at UNLV - Craig Bohl is a tremendous coach and now he has this team playing for a championship. They won't drop the ball here.
WYOMING IS THE PICK 45 24
Northwestern (-13.5) at Purdue - See Rutgers above, also NW can't score much and Purdue is pretty solid on back door covers even when they are getting beaten badly.
Pick PURDUE who loses 27 20
Sorry again about the Nebraska lack of a pick for those interested but with the QB situation uncertain, I am not picking that game. I don't want to completely guess for no reason.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Commodore) team!
Last week 4-4 ATS, 7-1 SU
On the year 32-34 ATS, 58-16 SU
Vanderbilt (+3.5) at MIZZOU - Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, fool me five straight times I probably need to have my head examined. Sorry guys, the crowd won't be good (I'll be there though) and the effort level or concentration level or something on this team can be spotty at times.
VANDY wins outright 30-24. This spread seems pretty far off
Iowa State (-10) at ku - I know some like to exaggerate and claim otherwise but we still are quite a bit better than ku. ISU keeps playing hard and they have enough to win comfortably here.
PICK ISU 37-13
Army (+13.5) at Notre Dame - I know they lost to Navy last week but I think that has created a bit of an overreaction type spread here. Outside of a weird Wake Forest game, Army is trending in the wrong direction.
PICK NOTRE DAME 34 14
Auburn (+10.5) at Georgia - I give the Dawgs a shot at the upset here actually. They are getting a bit healthy and I don't know how great it is to have a less than 100% QB coming into Athens.
PICK GEORGIA - THEY LOSE 27-24
Rutgers (+14.5) at Michigan State - Tough to bet this game but Rutgers keeps being competitive against like teams. With little to play for in East Lansing I expect that to continue.
PICK RUTGERS THEY LOSE 31 24
Wyoming (-7.5) at UNLV - Craig Bohl is a tremendous coach and now he has this team playing for a championship. They won't drop the ball here.
WYOMING IS THE PICK 45 24
Northwestern (-13.5) at Purdue - See Rutgers above, also NW can't score much and Purdue is pretty solid on back door covers even when they are getting beaten badly.
Pick PURDUE who loses 27 20
Sorry again about the Nebraska lack of a pick for those interested but with the QB situation uncertain, I am not picking that game. I don't want to completely guess for no reason.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Commodore) team!
November 16th, 2016 at 2:32:06 PM
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Well, I have been proud of my performance on these picks most years as I rarely finish below .500 but this year is shaping up to be pretty terrible.
After going 2-5 ATS last week I am 34-39 on the year. I have a lot of games which intrigue me this week and I have nothing to lose so I will try picking more games. I am 62-19 straight up on the year. I bring that up because once again last week one of my friends was telling me how horrible the picks at the Columbia Tribune are for football. I told my friend, "you do realize they are picking against the spread." He had no idea, the poor writers at the Trib have been unfairly criticized for years by folks who do not realize how hard it is to pick ATS.
So here we go for those of you loyal enough to still be reading these picks!
MIZZOU (+15.5) at Tennessee - Vegas always knows. I was sure MU would keep up their losing ways last weekend but instead I missed another MU game ATS to go an incredible 0-9 ATS on MU games this year. Hopefully I am wrong again but I think the team knew that was the best realistic chance to win a game and when things go badly this week look out.
TENNESSEE is the pick 45-21
Memphis (-7) at Cincinnati - The Bearcats appear to be pretty much done... bet against teams like that.
PICK MEMPHIS 42-20
Duke (+7.5) at Pitt - I think Duke was really impressive in beating UNC but Pitt quietly has been having a really nice year.
PITT IS THE PICK
MTSU (-4) at Charlotte - MTSU should be adjusted to losing their star QB and Charlotte is awful.
MTSU IS THE PICK
Maryland (+13) at Nebraska - I mean it is POSSIBLE that Nebraska gets caught looking ahead to Iowa, but they beat a tough team last week and bounced back well.
NEBRASKA IS THE PICK
SDSU (+9.5) at Wyoming - I think Wyoming bounces back after a really horrible loss last week. I'll say WYOMING loses but SDSU does not cover.
Navy (-7) at ECU - Navy is going to run all over these guys. NAVY by 21
K-State (-2.5) at Baylor - No discipline Baylor with little to play for. They do have a good backup QB but I'll take the team coached by a staff of responsible adults.
K-STATE BY 11
Mississippi (-9.5) at Vandy - I don't want to be all negative this week. I made the drive to the MU game last week and it was great to see the Tigers win. The B-2 Flyover and the Bald Eagle were awesome also. AND I got to see a really limited Vandy team. Ole Miss still has plenty at QB to win this easily.
MISSISSIPPI is the pick, they win by 20
I feel like I am picking too many favorites but I don't see a great way to correct that.
That's all for this week! Hopefully I get to 0-10 ATS on Mizzou games! Good luck to your (non-Volunteer) team!
After going 2-5 ATS last week I am 34-39 on the year. I have a lot of games which intrigue me this week and I have nothing to lose so I will try picking more games. I am 62-19 straight up on the year. I bring that up because once again last week one of my friends was telling me how horrible the picks at the Columbia Tribune are for football. I told my friend, "you do realize they are picking against the spread." He had no idea, the poor writers at the Trib have been unfairly criticized for years by folks who do not realize how hard it is to pick ATS.
So here we go for those of you loyal enough to still be reading these picks!
MIZZOU (+15.5) at Tennessee - Vegas always knows. I was sure MU would keep up their losing ways last weekend but instead I missed another MU game ATS to go an incredible 0-9 ATS on MU games this year. Hopefully I am wrong again but I think the team knew that was the best realistic chance to win a game and when things go badly this week look out.
TENNESSEE is the pick 45-21
Memphis (-7) at Cincinnati - The Bearcats appear to be pretty much done... bet against teams like that.
PICK MEMPHIS 42-20
Duke (+7.5) at Pitt - I think Duke was really impressive in beating UNC but Pitt quietly has been having a really nice year.
PITT IS THE PICK
MTSU (-4) at Charlotte - MTSU should be adjusted to losing their star QB and Charlotte is awful.
MTSU IS THE PICK
Maryland (+13) at Nebraska - I mean it is POSSIBLE that Nebraska gets caught looking ahead to Iowa, but they beat a tough team last week and bounced back well.
NEBRASKA IS THE PICK
SDSU (+9.5) at Wyoming - I think Wyoming bounces back after a really horrible loss last week. I'll say WYOMING loses but SDSU does not cover.
Navy (-7) at ECU - Navy is going to run all over these guys. NAVY by 21
K-State (-2.5) at Baylor - No discipline Baylor with little to play for. They do have a good backup QB but I'll take the team coached by a staff of responsible adults.
K-STATE BY 11
Mississippi (-9.5) at Vandy - I don't want to be all negative this week. I made the drive to the MU game last week and it was great to see the Tigers win. The B-2 Flyover and the Bald Eagle were awesome also. AND I got to see a really limited Vandy team. Ole Miss still has plenty at QB to win this easily.
MISSISSIPPI is the pick, they win by 20
I feel like I am picking too many favorites but I don't see a great way to correct that.
That's all for this week! Hopefully I get to 0-10 ATS on Mizzou games! Good luck to your (non-Volunteer) team!
