College Football Picks Consolidated

I am consolidating things starting from this week (Week 3).

Going forward I will just title the week, toss in a table, and if anyone wants to respond they can respond by simply typing (Week # Response) -- message...

LPR is a Loss Profile Rating. The higher the number the more probable the team will win. It does not mean that the team will have a better chance at covering. It is just easier to sort from some type of perspective. I'm listing MLs (Zourah asked) but I'm supplying units so they can be tracked.

Week 3 Picks (College)

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units
19.5	Middle Tenn	Bowling Green	Middle Tenn			-5.5	3
18	Ohio State	@Oklahoma	Ohio State	-125	3
17.5	South Ala.	@UL Lafayette	South Ala			3.5	2.5
15.5	Western Mich	Illinois	Western Mich	-170	2
15	Nebraska	Oregon	Nebraska			-2.5	1.5
15	East Carolina	@South Carolina	East Carolina	155	0.5	4	2
15	Eastern Mich	@Charlotte	Eastern Mich	-155	1.5
14.5	Houston	@Cincinnati	Houston			-6.5	1
14.5	Uconn	Virginia	Uconn			-4	1
14	Miami	@Appalachian State	Miami	-165	1
12.5	Texas A&M	@Auburn	Texas A&M			3.5	1

The early picks are above. I have the option of changing them before games are played but if I do that, I'll respond "before the game is played" and usually I supply up to one full day's notice.

But, based on the information thus far, these are the early line picks.

The information below is the final from the information above, posted earlier in the week. All units risked were $100 dollar values.

W - Houston -6.5 (won 40-16) (1 ATS Unit Risked)
W - Middle Tenn -5.5 (won 41-21) (3 ATS Units Risked)
W - Miami -165 (won 45-10) (1 ML Unit Risked)
L - Connecticut -4 (won 13-10) (1 ATS Unit Risked)
W - Nebraska -2.5 (Won 35-32) (1.5 ATS Units Risked)
W - Western Mich -170 (Won 34-10) (2 ML Units Risked)
L - East Carolina +4 (Lost 20-15) (2 ATS Units Risked)
L - East Carolina +155 (Lost 20-15) (0.5 ML Unit Risked)
W - Eastern Mich -155 (won 37-19) (1.5 ML Units Risked)
L - South Alabama +3.5 (lost 28-23) (2.5 ATS Units Risked)
W - Texas A&M +3.5 (won 29-16) (1 ATS Unit Risked)
W - Ohio State -125 (won 45-24) (3 ML Units Risked)

Overall Plays (8-4)
ATS Plays (4-3)
ML Plays (4-1)

Out of the four losses, two were from a double on East Carolina. That was the most upsetting loss of the day for me. Here's why:

East Carolina had a 34 to 13 first downs advantage in the game.
East Carolina had a 519 to 312 offensive yards advantage in the game.
East Carolina had a 38:25 to 21:35 min TOP advantage in the game.
East Carolina had 4 turnovers, 2 near the goal line.

In this particular case the score is not indicative of how the game went. East Carolina should have won and I would wager the same way on this game every single time. Games like this one are frustrating.

Connecticut was two points from covering.

South Alabama was two points from covering.

Overall, was a much better week than last week. I'm still going to hold off one more week before putting any serious risk into the wager process. So, for college that will be week 5.

Overall End Result: +5.05 Units

Week 1 and 2 Combined: -6.22 Units
Week 3: +5.05 Units

Current Net: -1.17 Units

If Week 4 can net a solid positive return (+3 or greater), I will be changing my unit measurements from $100 per unit to $200 per unit starting in week 5. My goal is to get to the $500/$1k unit measurements by week 9. I am more than likely off pace by 1-3 weeks from where I'd normally like to be.

I said I would only do weeks 1-4. I may go up to Week 9. I'm debating it. I'd really like to show how things progress over the early to mid-season range. If there is sincere interest, I'll continue. If no one really cares to see any of this information, I'll stop after week 4.

I'll post Week 4 games in this thread by Wednesday.

I enjoy reading these a great deal

Week 4 Picks: Units = $100

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units
30.5	Central Mich.	Virginia	Central Mich.			-2.5	3
27	Ball St.	Fla. Atlantic	Ball St.			-2.5	3
19	Air Force	Utah St.	Air Force			-2.5	2.5
16	Utah	USC	Utah	-150	1.5
16	Florida	Tennessee	Florida	210	1	7.5	2
15.5	Central Florida	Florida Intl.	Central Florida	-250	1.25
15.5	Stanford	UCLA	Stanford	-160	1.5
14.5	San Jose St.	Iowa St.	San Jose St.			7.5	1.5
12.5	Arizona St.	California	Arizona St.	-180	1
12	South Florida	Florida St.	South Florida			7	1

Quote: JoelDeze

Week 4 Picks: Units = $100

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units
30.5	Central Mich.	Virginia	Central Mich.			-2.5	3
27	Ball St.	Fla. Atlantic	Ball St.			-2.5	3
19	Air Force	Utah St.	Air Force			-2.5	2.5
16	Utah	USC	Utah	-150	1.5
16	Florida	Tennessee	Florida	210	1	7.5	2
15.5	Central Florida	Florida Intl.	Central Florida	-250	1.25
15.5	Stanford	UCLA	Stanford	-160	1.5
14.5	San Jose St.	Iowa St.	San Jose St.			7.5	1.5
12.5	Arizona St.	California	Arizona St.	-180	1
12	South Florida	Florida St.	South Florida			7	1

So now you're making up numbers? Not one of those spreads were available at the time of your post, and some of them were literally never available without buying points, but you're listing them seemingly as -110.

How stupid do you think people on this forum are?

See the post below this one.

Even though these do not reflect accurate buys for me, due to the complaint of he who shall not be named above, I am posting the buys at a -10 per half point increment from the lines at the time of the original posting. This should hopefully quell the laminated emotions of a toddler to some extent. These are only for the ATS.

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY
30.5	Central Mich.	Virginia	Central Mich.			-2.5	3	B 1.0, -130
27	Ball St.	Fla. Atlantic	Ball St.			-2.5	3	B 1.0, -130
19	Air Force	Utah St.	Air Force			-2.5	2.5	B 1.0, -130
16	Utah	USC	Utah	-150	1.5
16	Florida	Tennessee	Florida	210	1	7.5	2	B 1.0, -130
15.5	Central Florida	Florida Intl.	Central Florida	-250	1.25
15.5	Stanford	UCLA	Stanford	-160	1.5
14.5	San Jose St.	Iowa St.	San Jose St.			7.5	1.5	B 0.5, -120
12.5	Arizona St.	California	Arizona St.	-180	1
12	South Florida	Florida St.	South Florida			7	1	B 1.0, -130

Quote: JoelDeze

Even though these do not reflect accurate buys for me, due to the complaint of he who shall not be named above, I am posting the buys at a -10 per half point increment from the lines at the time of the original posting. This should hopefully quell the laminated emotions of a toddler to some extent. These are only for the ATS.

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY
30.5	Central Mich.	Virginia	Central Mich.			-2.5	3	B 1.0, -130
27	Ball St.	Fla. Atlantic	Ball St.			-2.5	3	B 1.0, -130
19	Air Force	Utah St.	Air Force			-2.5	2.5	B 1.0, -130
16	Utah	USC	Utah	-150	1.5
16	Florida	Tennessee	Florida	210	1	7.5	2	B 1.0, -130
15.5	Central Florida	Florida Intl.	Central Florida	-250	1.25
15.5	Stanford	UCLA	Stanford	-160	1.5
14.5	San Jose St.	Iowa St.	San Jose St.			7.5	1.5	B 0.5, -120
12.5	Arizona St.	California	Arizona St.	-180	1
12	South Florida	Florida St.	South Florida			7	1	B 1.0, -130

I fail to see how someone's insisting that you grade your picks against accurate lines constitutes "laminated emotions of a toddler."

Perhaps you can enlighten us.

EDIT: What's a "laminated emotion," anyway? That's not a term with which I'm familiar.

Joel, I appreciate you posting your picks. Certainly provides food for thought.

I have been reading websites/chatboards/etc that allow posting of sports betting picks almost as long as there's been a web, going back to the days of the old therx.com. It's always been strongly suggested, if not required, that in posting picks on such sites, you use widely available lines, or post a clear disclaimer. It eliminates any potential confusion and misunderstandings...

Transparency is always the best policy.

Again, thanks for sharing your picks.

Quote: ejd5277

I fail to see how someone's insisting that you grade your picks against accurate lines constitutes "laminated emotions of a toddler."

Perhaps you can enlighten us.

EDIT: What's a "laminated emotion," anyway? That's not a term with which I'm familiar.

0 threads, 1 post

And, you specifically respond to this one topic in defense of the a$$hat above? Yeah, I'm not as transparent as you'd like to think. And, perhaps you can enlighten us? Who's us? Are you the spokesperson for the Unenlightened Group of New Posters?

Move along.

Quote: JoelDeze

0 threads, 1 post

And, you specifically respond to this one topic in defense of the a$$hat above? Yeah, I'm not as transparent as you'd like to think. And, perhaps you can enlighten us? Who's us? Are you the spokesperson for the Unenlightened Group of New Posters?

Move along.

If insisting that you post lines that people can actually bet makes me "unenlightened," then I'm guilty.

I don't think the number of posts/threads I've made is germane to the topic at hand. I don't think my request that you post accurate numbers when making picks is unreasonable.

I have no idea who SM777 is. Don't care. Maybe he's an a$$hat and maybe he isn't.

I will tell you though that personal attacks against anyone who questions your methodology is classic fraud tout behavior (see: Fezzik) and SM777 is 100% correct when he says that the general population of this board is much, much smarter than that.

Joel, what sports books allow you to buy a -3.5 down to -2.5 for 20 cents? Usually a half point off of three will cost you 30 cents.

Quote: JoelDeze

This should hopefully quell the laminated emotions of a toddler to some extent.

Personal insult, three-day suspension.

Quote: Wizard

Personal insult, three-day suspension.

I think you forgot to do the actual suspension

Quote: GWAE

I think you forgot to do the actual suspension

D'oh!

3 DAYS? How will we get our weekend picks?

Just take Alabama +14.5 vs. Kent.

Quote: Rigondeaux

Just take Alabama +14.5 vs. Kent.

Lol

In order to be fair to the process and taking into account DRich's comments, I've increased the buy amounts from last week (from 0.10 to 0.15). Keep in mind that the original buys were actually less than what I posted because I didn't get the table shown on Tuesday. So, in order to meet expectations from others I added the last column and posted lines/buys as is.

Going forward I will be putting up the listing by Tuesday night and using the lines from Vegas Insider as a reference point.

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY	Units Gained
30.5	Central Mich.	Virginia	Central Mich.			-2.5	3	B 1.0, -145	-3
27	Ball St.	Fla. Atlantic	Ball St.			-2.5	3	B 1.0, -145	2.07
19	Air Force	Utah St.	Air Force			-2.5	2.5	B 1.0, -145	1.72
16	Utah	USC	Utah	-150	1.5				1
16	Florida	Tennessee	Florida	210	1	7.5	2	B 1.0, -145	-3
15.5	Central Florida	Florida Intl.	Central Florida	-250	1.25				0.5
15.5	Stanford	UCLA	Stanford	-160	1.5				0.94
14.5	San Jose St.	Iowa St.	San Jose St.			7.5	1.5	B 0.5, -125	-1.5
12.5	Arizona St.	California	Arizona St.	-180	1				0.56
12	South Florida	Florida St.	South Florida			7	1	B 1.0, -145	-1

Last week I went 6-5 with the double loss to Florida (Tenn beat them for the first time in 12 years with a come from behind second half win). The Central Mich loss was also very costly. Those two combined cost -6 units.

For the week, the net units was -1.71.

I will post totals for the year on Week 5. I will continue posting picks going forward. All buys will be juiced at 0.40 per half point starting on week 5. This should hopefully help with people who do not agree with the line amounts going forward.

I don't understand why you would increase unit size - seems like you are just trying to do that to overcome bad picks the first couple weeks and show a positive outcome like a martingale. On top of tells obvious playing with the buy amounts and the actual lines- I also don't think you have any edge- even in the NFL pool you aren't doing better then anyone else on average

Quote: Wizardofnothing

I don't understand why you would increase unit size - seems like you are just trying to do that to overcome bad picks the first couple weeks and show a positive outcome like a martingale. On top of tells obvious playing with the buy amounts and the actual lines- I also don't think you have any edge- even in the NFL pool you aren't doing better then anyone else on average

I haven't increased any units. I'm not sure what you are referring to.

I have a base unit value of $100 at the moment. It will stay that way until Week 8. The unit amounts are based on LPR confidence. The higher the number the more likely the wager will be successful.

As for the buy amounts, there is no way for me to make everyone happy so I am actually making it harder for me by juicing the amounts to 0.40 per half point. So, in order for me to buy a half point I need to spend 0.40 more. If I buy from -3 to -2.5 it costs me -150. If that is unacceptable then no amount is acceptable. I've already stated that I am using the lines at Vegas Insider so anyone can go look them up. However, the buy amounts should be acceptable at this point.

As for the NFL, I am somewhere between below average to above average on the early weeks. It's a lot harder to forecast due to parity. I started with College Football and that's where I do the best. Early weeks can be tough but I look at risk first.

Weeks 1-4 (high risk)
Weeks 5-7 (moderate)
Weeks 8-15 (low risk)
Bowl Season (moderate / low risk)

Also, to answer your other question with a little bit more information. I think you are mistakenly looking at the previous chart on the other page when you are referring to your post. I'm just showing the net unit gains from last week to try to add precision.

EDIT:

When you look at the charts (which are already sorted), the majority of the losses should happen in the bottom tier, not the top tier. For instance, last week, the top 4 confidence picks went 3-1. I hated the fact that the top confidence pick lost. I actually hate the fact that Florida (5th confidence pick) lost. They were up 21-3 with the #1 defense in the nation and Tennessee came back and Josh Dobbs had the game of his career. Nussmeier called a great first half offensive game for Florida and then went into run mode for the entire 3rd quarter. I have no idea what he was thinking but Florida was taking advantage of the secondary. Florida's defense is very solid and Tennessee's offensive line has been suspect the entire season. So, maybe they wanted to get that monkey off their back but that cost me a double play. Had Florida won, as projected, I would be 8-3 for the second week in a row and in the plus again. What can I say but ... it happens....

Week 1 and 2 Combined: -6.22 Units
Week 3: +5.05 Units
Week 4: -1.71 Units

Total: -2.88 Units (Overall)

Week 5 Picks Below:

Units = $100 per unit
Buy = 0.40 per 0.5
Lines are taken from Vegas Insider (VI)

Number of units wagered are based on the sorted LPR Confidence column

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY
23.5	Memphis	Ole Miss	Memphis			14.5	3	no buy
22.5	Ohio	Miami (OH)	Ohio			-2.5	3	no buy
22.5	Tennessee	Georgia	Tennessee	-165	3
19	Ball State	Northern ILL.	Ball State	-185	2.5
18.5	Duke	Virginia	Duke	-165	2
18.5	Eastern Mich	Bowling Green	Eastern Mich	135	1	3	2	no buy
15.5	Miami	Georgia Tech	Miami			-6.5	1.5	0.5, -150
15	Minnesota	Penn State	Minnesota			3	1.5	no buy
14.5	Toledo	BYU	Toledo			3.5	1	no buy
13.5	Western Mich.	Central Mich.	Western Mich.	-170	1

WEEK 5 RESULTS

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY	Units Gained
23.5	Memphis	Ole Miss	Memphis			14.5	3	no buy	-3
22.5	Ohio	Miami (OH)	Ohio			-2.5	3	no buy	2.7272
22.5	Tennessee	Georgia	Tennessee	-165	3				1.8181
19	Ball State	Northern ILL.	Ball State	-185	2.5				-2.5
18.5	Duke	Virginia	Duke	-165	2				-2
18.5	Eastern Mich	Bowling Green	Eastern Mich	135	1	3	2	no buy	3.1681
15.5	Miami	Georgia Tech	Miami			-6.5	1.5	0.5, -150	1
15	Minnesota	Penn State	Minnesota			3	1.5	no buy	PUSH
14.5	Toledo	BYU	Toledo			3.5	1	no buy	0.9090
13.5	Western Mich.	Central Mich.	Western Mich.	-170	1				0.5882

We went 7-3 and 1 push for the week on system picks.

Total Units Gained = +2.71
Seasonal Units Gained/Lost = -0.1694

We won 2 out of 3 on the top confidence, losing the Memphis +ATS game. We picked up a double (ATS/ML) with Eastern Michigan. We also had one push with Minnesota.

Overall, was still a good week and we've almost fully recovered from the massive loss week in Week 2 and our overall units for the season are -0.16.

Going forward, the following holds true:

Weeks 6 and 7 are moderate risk.
Weeks 8 - 15 are low risk.
Bowl Season is moderate to low risk.

We should start to see some extended positive gains going forward.

All of the picks are system generated. The algorithms compile raw data each week and the more data that the system ingests, the stronger the accuracy over time.

(High Risk) : Week 1: 4-3 on plays
(High Risk): Week 2: 0-5 on plays
(High Risk): Week 3: 8-4 on plays
(High Risk) Week 4: 6-5 on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 5: 7-3, 1 push on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 6, 7
(Low Risk) Week 8-16
(Low to Mod Risk) Bowl Season/Playoffs

RESULTS

Week 1 and 2 Combined: -6.22 Units
Week 3: +5.05 Units
Week 4: -1.71 Units
Week 5: +2.71 Units

Total Combined: -0.1694 Units (or, essentially -$16.94)

Units = $100 per unit (through Week 7, after Week 7 these will increase)
Buy = 0.40 per 0.5 (giving myself a disadvantage on the buy column)
Lines are taken from Vegas Insider (VI)

Number of units wagered are based on the sorted LPR Confidence column.

WEEK 6 PICKS

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY
29	Ga. Southern	at Arkansas St.	Ga. Southern			-6.5	3	0.5, -150
23.5	Army	at Duke	Army			4	3	no buy
22.5	NC State	Notre Dame	NC State	-115	3
21	Maryland	at Penn State	Maryland	-125	3
20	Washington	at Oregon	Washington			-8.5	3	no buy
16.5	Wake Forest	Syracuse	Wake Forest	-145	2.5
14.5	Auburn	at Mississippi St.	Auburn			-2.5	2	no buy
14	Colorado	at USC	Colorado			5	2	no buy
13.5	Cincinnati	at Connecticut	Cincinnati	-165	2
13	Virginia Tech	at North Carolina	Virginia Tech	115	1
13	Miami	Florida St.	Miami			-2.5	1	0.5, -150
12.5	BYU	at Michigan St.	BYU			6	1	no buy
12	Florida	LSU	Florida			3.5	1	0.5, -150

WEEK 6 RESULTS

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY	WON?	Units Gained
29	Ga. Southern	at Arkansas St.	Ga. Southern			-6.5	3	0.5, -150	No	-3.0000
23.5	Army	at Duke	Army			4	3	no buy	No	-3.0000
22.5	NC State	Notre Dame	NC State	-115	3				YES	2.6086
21	Maryland	at Penn State	Maryland	-125	3				No	-3.0000
20	Washington	at Oregon	Washington			-8.5	3	no buy	YES	2.7272
16.5	Wake Forest	Syracuse	Wake Forest	-145	2.5				YES	1.7241
14.5	Auburn	at Mississippi St.	Auburn			-2.5	2	no buy	YES	1.8181
14	Colorado	at USC	Colorado			5	2	no buy	YES	1.8181
13.5	Cincinnati	at Connecticut	Cincinnati	-165	2				No	-2.0000
13	Virginia Tech	at North Carolina	Virginia Tech	115	1				YES	0.8695
13	Miami	Florida St.	Miami			-2.5	1	0.5, -150	No	-2.5000
12.5	BYU	at Michigan St.	BYU			6	1	no buy	YES	0.9090
12	Florida	LSU	Florida			3.5	1	0.5, -150	POSTPONED

While I went (7 - 5) on plays, losing 3 of the top 4 confidence picks where heavier units were listed net a total of -1.02 units for the week.

(High Risk) : Week 1: 4-3 on plays
(High Risk): Week 2: 0-5 on plays
(High Risk): Week 3: 8-4 on plays
(High Risk) Week 4: 6-5 on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 5: 7-3, 1 push on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 6: 7-5 on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 7
(Low Risk) Week 8-16
(Low to Mod Risk) Bowl Season/Playoffs

RESULTS

Week 1 and 2 Combined: -6.22 Units
Week 3: +5.05 Units
Week 4: -1.71 Units
Week 5: +2.71 Units
Week 6: -1.02 Units

Total Combined: -1.19 units with one moderate risk week to go. Hopefully we can break even before the low risk weeks.

All of the picks are system generated. The algorithms compile raw data each week and the more data that the system ingests, the stronger the accuracy over time.

(High Risk) : Week 1: 4-3 on plays
(High Risk): Week 2: 0-5 on plays
(High Risk): Week 3: 8-4 on plays
(High Risk) Week 4: 6-5 on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 5: 7-3, 1 push on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 6: 7-5 on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 7
(Low Risk) Week 8-16
(Low to Mod Risk) Bowl Season/Playoffs

RESULTS

Week 1 and 2 Combined: -6.22 Units
Week 3: +5.05 Units
Week 4: -1.71 Units
Week 5: +2.71 Units
Week 6: -1.02 Units

Total Combined: -1.19 units

Units = $100 per unit (through Week 7, after Week 7 these will increase)
Buy = 0.40 per 0.5 (giving myself a disadvantage on the buy column)
Lines are taken from Vegas Insider (VI)

One change for Week 7: Most of the games, except for the double wager below are all flat bets on units. The main reason is while I'm doing fine on winning percentage per play, I've lost a few of the top LPR confidence games and will be taking a wait and see approach this week before altering units based on confidence.

WEEK 7 PICKS

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY
23.5	Navy	at East Carolina	Navy			-2.5	2.5	0.5, -150
21.5	South Alabama	at Arkansas St.	South Alabama			5	2.5	no buy
20	Central Mich	at Northern Ill.	Central Mich.			-2.5	2.5	no buy
19.5	UTSA	at Rice	UTSA			-3.5	2.5	no buy
18.5	Nebraska	at Indiana	Nebraska			-5	2.5	no buy
16.5	USC	at Arizona	USC			-6.5	2.5	1.0, -190
15	Maryland	Minnesota	Maryland			-4	2.5	no buy
15	Middle Tenn.	Western Kentucky	Middle Tenn.	-125	2.5
14.5	Pittsburgh	at Virginia	Pittsburgh			-2.5	2.5	0.5, -150
11.5	BYU	Mississippi St.	BYU			-6.5	2.5	0.5, -150
11.5	Georgia Southern	at Georgia Tech	Georgia Southern	325	0.5	10.5	1.5	no buy

Navy was postponed.

Will tally previous results and post picks for Week 9. Week 8 picks are not posted.

However, for those wagering, here are teams I like this week:

Ohio ATS
Central Florida ATS
Utah ATS
Auburn ATS (if buying below 10)

Good luck.

(High Risk) : Week 1: 4-3 on plays
(High Risk): Week 2: 0-5 on plays
(High Risk): Week 3: 8-4 on plays
(High Risk) Week 4: 6-5 on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 5: 7-3, 1 push on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 6: 7-5 on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 7: 4-5-1 on plays
(Low Risk) Week 8-16
(Low to Mod Risk) Bowl Season/Playoffs

RESULTS

Week 1 and 2 Combined: -6.22 Units
Week 3: +5.05 Units
Week 4: -1.71 Units
Week 5: +2.71 Units
Week 6: -1.02 Units
Week 7: -4.57 Units

Total Combined: -5.76 units

WEEK 7 Results

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY	Units Gained	Won?
23.5	Navy	at East Carolina	Navy			-2.5	2.5	0.5, -150	POSTPONED	PPND
21.5	South Alabama	at Arkansas St.	South Alabama			5	2.5	no buy	-2.5	No
20	Central Mich	at Northern Ill.	Central Mich.			-2.5	2.5	no buy	2.272	Yes
19.5	UTSA	at Rice	UTSA			-3.5	2.5	no buy	-2.5	No
18.5	Nebraska	at Indiana	Nebraska			-5	2.5	no buy	0	PUSH
16.5	USC	at Arizona	USC			-6.5	2.5	1.0, -190	1.3150	Yes
15	Maryland	Minnesota	Maryland			-4	2.5	no buy	-2.5	No
15	Middle Tenn.	Western Kentucky	Middle Tenn.	-125	2.5				-2.5	No
14.5	Pittsburgh	at Virginia	Pittsburgh			-2.5	2.5	0.5, -150	1.6666	Yes
11.5	BYU	Mississippi St.	BYU			-6.5	2.5	0.5, -150	1.6666	Yes
11.5	Georgia Southern	at Georgia Tech	Georgia Southern	325	0.5	10.5	1.5	no buy	-1.5	No

Quote: JoelDeze

Will tally previous results and post picks for Week 9. Week 8 picks are not posted.

However, for those wagering, here are teams I like this week:

Ohio ATS
Central Florida ATS
Utah ATS
Auburn ATS (if buying below 10)

Good luck.

Week 8 through Start of Bowl Season is low risk.

I couldn't post the wagers I put out for last week but I did post the picks and what I liked. I went a perfect 4-0 on the first low risk week (week 8). Because I did not post the units/wagers, week 8 does not count for me.

Week 8 RESULTS

Week 1 and 2 Combined: -6.22 Units
Week 3: +5.05 Units
Week 4: -1.71 Units
Week 5: +2.71 Units
Week 6: -1.02 Units
Week 7: -4.57 Units
Week 8: NO POSTING but went 4-0 on recommended plays

Total Combined: -5.76 units

All of the picks are system generated. The algorithms compile raw data each week and the more data that the system ingests, the stronger the accuracy over time.

(High Risk) : Week 1: 4-3 on plays
(High Risk): Week 2: 0-5 on plays
(High Risk): Week 3: 8-4 on plays
(High Risk) Week 4: 6-5 on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 5: 7-3, 1 push on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 6: 7-5 on plays
(Mod Risk) Week 7: 4-5-1 on plays
(Low Risk) Week 8: 4-0 on plays
(Low Risk) Week 9: ---
(Low Risk) Week 10-16
(Low to Mod Risk) Bowl Season/Playoffs

RESULTS

Week 1 and 2 Combined: -6.22 Units
Week 3: +5.05 Units
Week 4: -1.71 Units
Week 5: +2.71 Units
Week 6: -1.02 Units
Week 7: -4.57 Units
Week 8: Did not POST Wagers but I DID post picks.

Total Combined: -5.76 units

Units = $100 per unit
Buy = 0.40 per 0.5 (giving myself a disadvantage on the buy column)
Lines are taken from Vegas Insider (VI)

Units after Week 8 are supposed to be $200+ and they are, but to keep the same unit amount in line with previous weeks and to avoid confusion, I'm using the same $100 unit amount and just increasing units to reflect the additional increase.

Number of units wagered are based on the sorted LPR Confidence column.

WEEK 9 PICKS

LPR - Confidence	TEAM	OPPONENT	WAGER ON	ML	ML Units	ATS	ATS Units	BUY	SCORE PREDICTION
24.5	Miami	at Notre Dame	Miami			-2.5	6	no buy	29-19
24.5	San Diego St.	at Utah State	San Diego St.			-6	6	no buy	31-20
24.5	Florida	(N) Georgia	Florida			-7.5	6	no buy	30-16
22.5	Kansas State	at Iowa State	Kansas State			-6.5	5	no buy	37-21
21	Auburn	at Ole Miss	Auburn			-4	5	no buy	35-21
20.5	Virginia Tech	at Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech			-4.5	4	no buy	31-21
20	Clemson	at Florida State	Clemson			-4.5	4	no buy	31-20
19.5	Baylor	at Texas	Baylor			-3	3	no buy	38-21
19.5	Eastern Mich	Miami (OH)	Eastern Mich			-6.5	3	(0.5, -150)	31-24
18	Temple	Cincinnatti	Temple			-6.5	2	(0.5, -150)	28-20
14.5	Old Dominion	at UTEP	Old Dominion			-4	2	no buy	36-24
12.5	Maryland	at Indiana	Maryland	175	1	5	2	no buy	30-20

Baylor just seems like such easy money I can't bring myself to bet it!

thanks for posting! This will give me a few things to think about tomorrow

Quote: Zourah

Baylor just seems like such easy money I can't bring myself to bet it!

thanks for posting! This will give me a few things to think about tomorrow

Baylor has played weaker competition and a majority of people feel that Texas is more battle tested. Texas has also played Baylor well over the last few years. However, Texas is a real mess this season. Charlie Strong is having to shift Texas and play out of his comfort zone in order to compete with other BIG-12 teams.

Texas high school football grooms air raid fast tempo spread type players. Few teams concentrate on defense in that state.

Baylor may have trouble with the Longhorns' running game. But, Baylor is solid in a lot of areas. I like Baylor a lot.

This week I will only be highlighting games I'm wagering on. I will not be providing a stream of picks. The main reason is that while I post system picks, these are not always the games I wager on. So, I'll just concentrate on those games only.

I will be adding these games on a per game basis.

Week 10 Wagers

Friday Night:

Temple over UConn (line is currently at -10 for Temple)

Temple is 3-0 ATS away and UCONN is 1-4 ATS at home this season. Temple holds a +3 to -4 (+7 advantage) on turnover margin. In similar match-ups for opponents faced, Temple is 3-0, having beaten South Florida, Cincinnati and UCF. UConn is 1-2 on the same slate, having only beaten Cincinnati. Offensively, Temple and UConn both show consistent trends with Temple having a modest advantage. Defensively, Temple is allowing 100+ yards less per game than UConn.

Temple has a 20.4 scoring diff advantage (11.1 to -9.3) which equates to an 82.28% chance to cover the spread historically over a 5-year stretch.

While there will be no upset (Temple has a 92.71% chance to win), the scoring totals may drift towards the low side in this match-up due to UConn's inconsistencies on offense and due to UConn's defense playing better at home.

Score Prediction: Temple (34-17), DIFF (-17), TOTALS (51)

Recommended: Wager on -ATS in favor of Temple but try to keep below -10. Recommend a buy to -9.5. I do not like the totals in this game even though the OVER has a 6 point advantage.

Quote: JoelDeze

This week I will only be highlighting games I'm wagering on. I will not be providing a stream of picks. The main reason is that while I post system picks, these are not always the games I wager on. So, I'll just concentrate on those games only.

Friday Night:
I will be adding these games on a per game basis.

Week 10 Wagers


Score Prediction: Temple (34-17), DIFF (-17), TOTALS (51)

Recommended: Wager on -ATS in favor of Temple but try to keep below -10. Recommend a buy to -9.5. I do not like the totals in this game even though the OVER has a 6 point advantage.

Did you post your week 9 results?

If you expect Temple to win by 17 why would you buy the half point off of 10?

Quote: DRich

Did you post your week 9 results?

If you expect Temple to win by 17 why would you buy the half point off of 10?

This is the busiest time of the season for me so I really do not have time to dive into all of the system picks. To make things easier for anyone following this particular thread, it is much easier to just post winning picks. This week has been pretty solid for me so far. I posted and wagered on Atlanta on Thursday and Temple today. Personally, I'm 4-0 on wagers this week (Western Mich, Toledo, Atlanta and Temple). But, I've only posted two forum picks (Atlanta and Temple).

I took -10 and did not buy -0.5 but I encouraged it. Connecticut generally plays well defensively at home and I'd hate to see a pick 6 generate a push. As it stands they won by 21 and covered the 17 prediction, as well as the -10 spread.

I'm Going to post my next pick for the Florida @ Arkansas game. I really like this pick but I wanted to also show you how I'm breaking down this game and why I feel the line is incorrect.

Florida @ Arkansas
Line is currently -3.5 in favor of Florida

The line started out around -4 to -4.5 so a lot of people feel that Florida has a solid chance of losing this game. And, I can understand why they do after watching the Gators' offense the last few weeks. But, this is an oddsmaker trap game and it's one of the more difficult games to set the lines for considering the history of Florida beating Arkansas.

Florida currently has a 9-win streak against Arkansas dating back to 1995. They've dominated the razorbacks historically. But, I don't put a ton of stock into history.

Let's look at momentum for both teams.



Offense

Offensively, both of these teams are right on par with one another. Florida has shown a marginal decline on offense since week 4 but they've played good defenses over that stretch. Arkansas is a little more consistent over the course of the season but if you remove Alabama and Auburn, they have not shown any measured improvement against other weak defenses they've faced.

Arkansas struggled against the two toughest defenses they faced this season (Alabama in week 6 and Auburn in week 8). They lost both of those games by 49-30 and 56-3. Florida's defense is on par, if not slightly better, than both of those teams.

Florida has a ton of playmakers on offense but they are having QB and O-line issues. They have two superior WRs in Callaway and Cleveland and have a RB by committee with focus on giving reps to Scarlett and Perine. Powell coming into the game gives the Gators a mix of misdirection on short yardage plays. If the Gators play on the level of talent they have offensively, when they do have a breakout game it will turn some heads.

The Razorbacks have a good RB in Rawleigh Williams who is averaging around 100 yards per game. Austin Allen has a couple of good receivers in Hatcher and Cornelius who both average a little over 60 yds per game.

Defense

Florida has the #2 defense in the nation, allowing 239 yards per game. They are #2 in pass defense, allowing 134 yds per game and #10 in rush defense, allowing 105 yds per game. The Gators only allow 11.7 points per game (2nd best in the nation) and teams are converting only 68.8% of the time in the red zone (4th best in the nation).

The Gators' momentum on defense is almost through the roof, hitting the top of the ceiling and consistently remaining there. Arkansas has shown a marginal decline on defense since week 5.

The Razorbacks are ranked 87th in the nation on defense, allowing 428 yards per game. They are allowing 31.4 points per game and teams are converting on 3rd downs at almost 50% (48.5%).

RISK Factors



Florida scores high in 4 of the top 6 risk factors that produce the highest margin of win probability assessment in college football.

H2H shows a 75% win percentage with Florida's offense and defense combining to account for 61.3% of the probable scoring in the game. Florida is much stronger statistically, and that produces between a 78-80% chance to win. Scoring defense is a huge factor in this game but RERD (rushing efficiency rating difference) is the key stat I'm really looking at here. RERD accounts for the second highest win probability projector in college football and the Gators have almost a 100% chance to win based on this trend.

Scoring Differential



The POINTS row accounts for an historical comparison of any two teams that fit similar makeup characteristics of both Florida and Arkansas in a real game scenario. The margin of victory for the Florida team in this scenario is 14 points.

The SCORE row accounts for the real scoring differential in this game. Florida has a 17.7 to -0.5 advantage (or 18.2 points) over the Razorbacks. The score historically when this advantage is present averages out to a 36-18 victory, or an 18 point margin of victory.

Game Prediction

The score should average around 31-15. However, Florida's offense has been inconsistent throughout the year so I'm negating 7 points and adding 3 points to the home team.

Florida wins (24 - 18), DIFF (-6), TOTALS (42).

Recommended: The line is at -3.5 but I recommend buying a full point to -2.5 to ensure a solid cover, with no chance to push.

Other games I like, which I may wager on are:

Troy -ATS
USC -ATS

Both of these teams are playing extremely well in this point of the season. I also think that USC may score on almost every possession against Oregon's woeful defense.

I've been wagering on a 1 to 2 game setup at this point so I'll wait until halftime on Florida to post my USC pick.

Quote: JoelDeze

This is the busiest time of the season for me so I really do not have time to dive into all of the system picks

I'm a nice guy so even though you didn't have time I went ahead and compiled your results for your week 9 picks.

You lost 7 units in week 9. So to date your system is -12.79 units. According to your earlier posts your system gets stronger in the later weeks. If that is the case why are you abandoning it?

Quote: DRich

I'm a nice guy so even though you didn't have time I went ahead and compiled your results for your week 9 picks.

You lost 7 units in week 9. So to date your system is -12.79 units. According to your earlier posts your system gets stronger in the later weeks. If that is the case why are you abandoning it?

Sorry, I was wrong I forgot to account for the vig. Your loss on week nine was about 8.6 units moving the season total for the system to about 14.4 units.

Quote: DRich

I'm a nice guy so even though you didn't have time I went ahead and compiled your results for your week 9 picks.

You lost 7 units in week 9. So to date your system is -12.79 units. According to your earlier posts your system gets stronger in the later weeks. If that is the case why are you abandoning it?

I'm pretty sure you knew that before you calculated for him. This guy is the biggest clown on the forums. If he had even won 1 unit last week, he would've been boasting. Funny how he's so busy to calculate his losing week 9, but can spend an hour breaking down Florida/Arkansas for his next losing pick.

Unfortunately for me, I stopped fading early as I lost track of this thread, and have now found it. Shaking my head at how much I would be up had I continued to fade all season.

Quote: DRich

I'm a nice guy so even though you didn't have time I went ahead and compiled your results for your week 9 picks.

You lost 7 units in week 9. So to date your system is -12.79 units. According to your earlier posts your system gets stronger in the later weeks. If that is the case why are you abandoning it?

I'm not at all. The problem with posting an entire slate of system picks on a Tuesday is not indicative of what really happens during the week from a wagering perspective.

I may have about 15 to 16 games to wager on and I may bring that down to 5 or 6 wagers. I'm going to take advantage of line changes when possible.

I didn't lose last week. I ended up plus on my wagers. But, the plus didn't come from college. It came from the Saints and Pats. I almost broke even on college late.

This week I'm 4-0 on wagers and have 1 wager locked on Florida at -2.5. I will more than likely place the USC game next. I was leaning on Troy too. The numbers are good for both of those games.

There's a lot of additional research that goes into the games before I place a wager.

Quote: SM777

Quote: DRich

I'm a nice guy so even though you didn't have time I went ahead and compiled your results for your week 9 picks.

You lost 7 units in week 9. So to date your system is -12.79 units. According to your earlier posts your system gets stronger in the later weeks. If that is the case why are you abandoning it?

I'm pretty sure you knew that before you calculated for him. This guy is the biggest clown on the forums. If he had even won 1 unit last week, he would've been boasting. Funny how he's so busy to calculate his losing week 9, but can spend an hour breaking down Florida/Arkansas for his next losing pick.

Unfortunately for me, I stopped fading early as I lost track of this thread, and have now found it. Shaking my head at how much I would be up had I continued to fade all season.

No, instead you spent your time fading from the NFL contest.

Quote: JoelDeze

Quote: DRich

I'm a nice guy so even though you didn't have time I went ahead and compiled your results for your week 9 picks.

You lost 7 units in week 9. So to date your system is -12.79 units. According to your earlier posts your system gets stronger in the later weeks. If that is the case why are you abandoning it?

I'm not at all. The problem with posting an entire slate of system picks on a Tuesday is not indicative of what really happens during the week from a wagering perspective.

I may have about 15 to 16 games to wager on and I may bring that down to 5 or 6 wagers. I'm going to take advantage of line changes when possible.

I didn't lose last week. I ended up plus on my wagers. But, the plus didn't come from college. It came from the Saints and Pats. I almost broke even on college late.

This week I'm 4-0 on wagers and have 1 wager locked on Florida at -2.5. I will more than likely place the USC game next. I was leaning on Troy too. The numbers are good for both of those games.

There's a lot of additional research that goes into the games before I place a wager.

Oops, SM777 I think you might get tagged for that.

---------------------------------------

JoelDeze I would like to thank you for sending me a free password and username for your site betting tools. I don't know if I responded or not, if not it's because I just forgot and then your messages got bumped to the next page and I forgot.

I have not looked at it yet because I have enough distractions and things I should be doing with proven and mathematical advantage. Perhaps at some point I will get around to it or pass it off to someone that is better at sports than I(Ifor that's ok?).

I'm sure it has some value even if it doesn't actually earn members money.

But what I don't like is this what I would call after the fact (or not documented here.) Not that I'm saying your BS'ING us. I'm just saying it's BS. Post before you make a change add or exclude games and bet amounts.

You can't expect anyone to take your word on this stuff.

I probably said this before, you seem to be a nice guy and you never say anything out of line. I hope that's who you are and not just salesmanship.

What are your betting amounts right now at?

Are you in Vegas betting?

I would like to possibly make an offer regarding your betting action.

Quote: JoelDeze

Quote: SM777

Quote: DRich

I'm a nice guy so even though you didn't have time I went ahead and compiled your results for your week 9 picks.

You lost 7 units in week 9. So to date your system is -12.79 units. According to your earlier posts your system gets stronger in the later weeks. If that is the case why are you abandoning it?

I'm pretty sure you knew that before you calculated for him. This guy is the biggest clown on the forums. If he had even won 1 unit last week, he would've been boasting. Funny how he's so busy to calculate his losing week 9, but can spend an hour breaking down Florida/Arkansas for his next losing pick.

Unfortunately for me, I stopped fading early as I lost track of this thread, and have now found it. Shaking my head at how much I would be up had I continued to fade all season.

No, instead you spent your time fading from the NFL contest.

Regarding the FB contest, we can take something away from that. Mike has a hell of a record each time. He doesn't handycap games, he doesn't use some complicated program or whatever(No voodoo). I believe all his picks are made using statistics that show an advantage from past data. I think he uses market moves off lines to help determine is picks.

So why should anyone involved themselves with all the programs and pay services and whatnot when Mike gives people a guide how to do all its themselves and actually have a much better proven percentage than someone like you? Perhaps people should go for a Lower percent because you are a nice guy?

"Recommended: The line is at -3.5 but I recommend buying a full point to -2.5 to ensure a solid cover, with no chance to push."

You didn't list the price of the point to buy over the 3.

"The line started out around -4 to -4.5 so a lot of people feel that Florida has a solid chance of losing this game."

at isn't how the line movements work. "A lot of people" isn't what creates a small move from 4.5 to 3.5. The move off of a non-key number equates to about 3% in winning margin.

If the "line is incorrect" why are you purchasing an expensive point? Why are you implying that the home team should receive 3 points simply because they are the home team? The current market odds of -3.5 imply about 63% chance of winning for the favorite. Even using your false assumptions of 10points off on the game prediction, you still have Florida winning by 6 points. 6 pts implies almost 68% of a winning probability. Using an incremental Kelly Bankroll Investment strategy (full or half Kelly), you should be risking between 5-10% of your bankroll on Florida -3.5 based on your "edge" that says Florida is 6 pts better than Arkansas on their field.

The irony is I like Florida to beat Arkansas by more than 3; The mistake is in the poor calculations and nonsensical assumptions that have no predictive basis, not to mention advising buying a point without instructing the cost of said point over a valuable 3.

Quote: SportsJefe1

"Recommended: The line is at -3.5 but I recommend buying a full point to -2.5 to ensure a solid cover, with no chance to push."

You didn't list the price of the point to buy over the 3.

"The line started out around -4 to -4.5 so a lot of people feel that Florida has a solid chance of losing this game."

at isn't how the line movements work. "A lot of people" isn't what creates a small move from 4.5 to 3.5. The move off of a non-key number equates to about 3% in winning margin.

If the "line is incorrect" why are you purchasing an expensive point? Why are you implying that the home team should receive 3 points simply because they are the home team? The current market odds of -3.5 imply about 63% chance of winning for the favorite. Even using your false assumptions of 10points off on the game prediction, you still have Florida winning by 6 points. 6 pts implies almost 68% of a winning probability. Using an incremental Kelly Bankroll Investment strategy (full or half Kelly), you should be risking between 5-10% of your bankroll on Florida -3.5 based on your "edge" that says Florida is 6 pts better than Arkansas on their field.

The irony is I like Florida to beat Arkansas by more than 3; The mistake is in the poor calculations and nonsensical assumptions that have no predictive basis, not to mention advising buying a point without instructing the cost of said point over a valuable 3.

He has proven many times he doesn't understand sports betting.

Just attempted to gain a following here, and try and get some sales. It didn't happen, since his picks and breakdown are awful. Buying a full point on a college football game? There couldn't possibly be something less valuable in sports betting than that.

Best of luck to JoelDeeze on whatever forum he tries to scam next.

Quote: JoelDeze

I'm Going to post my next pick for the Florida @ Arkansas game. I really like this pick but I wanted to also show you how I'm breaking down this game and why I feel the line is incorrect.

Florida @ Arkansas
Line is currently -3.5 in favor of Florida

The line started out around -4 to -4.5 so a lot of people feel that Florida has a solid chance of losing this game. And, I can understand why they do after watching the Gators' offense the last few weeks. But, this is an oddsmaker trap game and it's one of the more difficult games to set the lines for considering the history of Florida beating Arkansas.

Florida currently has a 9-win streak against Arkansas dating back to 1995. They've dominated the razorbacks historically. But, I don't put a ton of stock into history.

Let's look at momentum for both teams.



Offense

Offensively, both of these teams are right on par with one another. Florida has shown a marginal decline on offense since week 4 but they've played good defenses over that stretch. Arkansas is a little more consistent over the course of the season but if you remove Alabama and Auburn, they have not shown any measured improvement against other weak defenses they've faced.

Arkansas struggled against the two toughest defenses they faced this season (Alabama in week 6 and Auburn in week 8). They lost both of those games by 49-30 and 56-3. Florida's defense is on par, if not slightly better, than both of those teams.

Florida has a ton of playmakers on offense but they are having QB and O-line issues. They have two superior WRs in Callaway and Cleveland and have a RB by committee with focus on giving reps to Scarlett and Perine. Powell coming into the game gives the Gators a mix of misdirection on short yardage plays. If the Gators play on the level of talent they have offensively, when they do have a breakout game it will turn some heads.

The Razorbacks have a good RB in Rawleigh Williams who is averaging around 100 yards per game. Austin Allen has a couple of good receivers in Hatcher and Cornelius who both average a little over 60 yds per game.

Defense

Florida has the #2 defense in the nation, allowing 239 yards per game. They are #2 in pass defense, allowing 134 yds per game and #10 in rush defense, allowing 105 yds per game. The Gators only allow 11.7 points per game (2nd best in the nation) and teams are converting only 68.8% of the time in the red zone (4th best in the nation).

The Gators' momentum on defense is almost through the roof, hitting the top of the ceiling and consistently remaining there. Arkansas has shown a marginal decline on defense since week 5.

The Razorbacks are ranked 87th in the nation on defense, allowing 428 yards per game. They are allowing 31.4 points per game and teams are converting on 3rd downs at almost 50% (48.5%).

RISK Factors



Florida scores high in 4 of the top 6 risk factors that produce the highest margin of win probability assessment in college football.

H2H shows a 75% win percentage with Florida's offense and defense combining to account for 61.3% of the probable scoring in the game. Florida is much stronger statistically, and that produces between a 78-80% chance to win. Scoring defense is a huge factor in this game but RERD (rushing efficiency rating difference) is the key stat I'm really looking at here. RERD accounts for the second highest win probability projector in college football and the Gators have almost a 100% chance to win based on this trend.

Scoring Differential



The POINTS row accounts for an historical comparison of any two teams that fit similar makeup characteristics of both Florida and Arkansas in a real game scenario. The margin of victory for the Florida team in this scenario is 14 points.

The SCORE row accounts for the real scoring differential in this game. Florida has a 17.7 to -0.5 advantage (or 18.2 points) over the Razorbacks. The score historically when this advantage is present averages out to a 36-18 victory, or an 18 point margin of victory.

Game Prediction

The score should average around 31-15. However, Florida's offense has been inconsistent throughout the year so I'm negating 7 points and adding 3 points to the home team.

Florida wins (24 - 18), DIFF (-6), TOTALS (42).

Recommended: The line is at -3.5 but I recommend buying a full point to -2.5 to ensure a solid cover, with no chance to push.

systems....

Atlanta posted and won
Temple posted and won
Florida posted and lost
Troy posted and won
USC posted and won

4-1 on plays I posted

Won on 2 earlier games this week so I've gone 6-1 on wagers.

Florida was a horrible game to even watch. No QB adjustments or personnel changes. They looked unprepared from the start of the game. Arkansas took advantage of their defensive aggression to hit passes on the edge for the entire first half. The defense just overran everything in the first half.

I'm having a fine week. For the people posting and thinking otherwise, continue believing what you want.

Show me anywhere on this forum where I've posted a link to my site to increase sales. I'm just posting picks or information. If you don't agree with the info then fade the other side. Or, don't even read what I post.

It's always fun to have people who know nothing about me to attempt to dissect everything I post.

I'm up $11,400 this week. 6-1. I'm happy. Ive had one posted loss this week. Some of you folks need to really get a life.