avargov
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September 2nd, 2010 at 2:41:08 PM permalink
After drudging through several months of sports boredom, today is the day of renewed excitement!!! College football friends!!! Just made my first two straight bets of the season, and hoping for another good year. Good luck to all of you who bet CFB, and may you hit over 55%. and btw, lets all hope for Utah by more than a field goal ;-)
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 3rd, 2010 at 1:50:12 PM permalink
Well...1 for 2 yesterday....Utah lost by half a point, USC - HAW over hit. Down 20 bucks...dang it. Perhaps Saturday will be better!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 11th, 2010 at 7:27:36 AM permalink
After going 6-4 in week 1 (thank you Boise), I just bought 7 games for today:

Haw +3 Army
Haw is simply the better team

So Car -3 Ga

ND-Mich under 52.5
major rain

OSU -8 MiFl
buckeyes overpower

Ore-Tenn over 52
127-0 combined last week

FSU +7 okla
Inexperienced QB for OK

Iowa -13.5 ISU
Looking back...foolish bet

I usually lay off the NFL, but I think I found value with these 2, so I bought them:

NE-CIN over 45.5
IND-HOU over 48

Lets see how it goes...
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 11th, 2010 at 4:22:02 PM permalink
Feeling pretty good today at 5-1....of.course...seems I was waaaay off on Oklahoma....must research better next week. C'mon ore-tenn, lets start scoring!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Mosca
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September 11th, 2010 at 10:41:23 PM permalink
Just barely made that ND/Mich; it stopped raining about an hour before game time! Good thing Crist got hurt in the first half, you'd have gone down there. Man, that Michigan quarterback is good, innt he?
A falling knife has no handle.
avargov
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September 11th, 2010 at 11:06:32 PM permalink
No joke there....and I dont know if he is that good or the domes defense is that bad

Edit: Sorry for the short reply Mosca...yes, Robinson does look very good, what did he have, 500+ yards of offense...incredible! Glad to see Oregon took care of business as well. Was getting worried there for awhile. Now if only the pros come through. Of coure they won't, which is why I generally lay off on Sunday.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
FleaStiff
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September 12th, 2010 at 3:26:50 AM permalink
I've only recently been reading about sports betting.

>Haw +3 Army
>Haw is simply the better team
Haw? Hawaii???
Better team? Well isn't that reflected in the odds?

>ND-Mich under 52.5
>major rain
H'mmm. Interesting. Rain is your motive for this bet. Okay. Doesn't everyone else also have a weather report saying "Major Rain"? Don't a few have a professional meteorologist's weather forecast?

>OSU -8 MiFl
>buckeyes overpower
These two broads kept saying Go Buckeyes, but they went to school there and that is "their" team, so I've nothing but their enthusiasm to judge by. Seems your bet turned out right though.

>FSU +7 okla
>Inexperienced QB for OK
Again, isn't this known to everyone and to the extent that it is thought relevant that information is already reflected in the odds being offered? How do you know its a good bet to make?

>Iowa -13.5 ISU
>Looking back...foolish bet
Why is it a foolish bet?

>I usually lay off the NFL, ...
Confused me there. I was trying to analyze this but then realized that by "lay off" you meant "avoid" rather than bet excess action on an opposing team.

> but I think I found value with these 2, so I bought them:
>NE-CIN over 45.5
>IND-HOU over 48
Hope they won for you.
avargov
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September 12th, 2010 at 7:41:56 AM permalink
Fleastiff, I appreciate your comments. Please let me make some as well. I have found that early in the season it is easier to find winners versus the books. Trends are not yet well defined, and younger players hve not yet settled in. Knowing this, and the books do as well, through research (about 25 hours a week), I try to find inconsistencies between the posted lines and my own findings. That i why I don't bet the NFL very often. IMHO, I think there too many FBS games for the books to be able to put the proper amount of time handicapping each one. For example, Wisconsin was giving.40 yesterday to San Jose State. They were off by 20. Some are very close. ND-Mich o/u was 52.5. 52 point were scored. The rain did move that down a little.

I guess what I am saying is that with a little research, reasonable value can be found. The comments I make with my picks are merely one of the factors I use.

Also, keep in mind that lines are set by people, and they make mistakes quite often. Unlike most other casino games, SB is not a game of chance, and is one the few that can have consistant positive results.

No matter how long you research to dice, you cant predict the results.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 12th, 2010 at 1:41:18 PM permalink
Alright! 8-1 this week. 14-5 for the season. Time to go to work on week 3.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 14th, 2010 at 4:46:27 AM permalink
I hate to make hasty picks, but since I will not be Nevada until Sunday evening, I gotta do what I gotta do.

7 college and 2 NFL picks this week:

Tex -3 TTU
can't understand why the line has moved so far

Iowa -1.5 Ariz
road fav shows Iowa/Big 10 power game

Ala -23.5 Duke
line should be 50

ECU +17.5 VT
acc is a joke

PSU -21 Kent
Paterno angry after last week

KSU -4 ISU
Snyder wins the games he should

USC -13 Min
SoCal pure talent crushes worst team in Big 10

NYG - IND over 48
Indy D horrible, O is still great. Manning bros in shoot-out

MIN - MIA over 40
both teams in mid-20's this week

Thinking I should move this to a Blog instead? Any comments?

Alan
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 18th, 2010 at 5:22:22 PM permalink
Well, 3-2 for the early games. Thanks USC for giving up a very late TD. Damned Trojans!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 19th, 2010 at 8:46:29 PM permalink
Now that the sweat on my brow has been wiped away (thank you Ely for righting USC's wrong from yesterday), I have come through with a third profitable weekend in a row.

This week:

5-4 overall
4-3 college
1-1 NFL

Season:

19-9 overall
16-8 college
3-1 NFL

Time to start researching again. I will be in NV on Thursday this week, so no hasty picks again....
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 22nd, 2010 at 9:04:01 AM permalink
Sigh!!! My schedule changed so I have to buy my games this evening. I think this might be the week that my profit goes out the window.

Of course, the smart play is to stand pat...but what is the fun of that.

If anyone has any 'hot tips', lay 'em on me. Having great dificulty finding good plays for the weekend. Way too many home dogs.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 22nd, 2010 at 5:08:32 PM permalink
Well, here goes my reputation, not to mention my bankroll:

Mia(Fl) -3.5 Pitt
Stan -4 ND
GA +1 Miss St
OK -14 Cinn
Ala -7 Ark
Ariz -6.5 Cal
Ore -11 Ariz St
Minn -4 No. Ill

NFL:

OAK/ARZ Over 39
DAL/HOU Over 48

Edit: PIT/TB under 33.5

Seems I am a bit Pac-10 heavy this week. Well, let's see how it all turns out...
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 23rd, 2010 at 5:49:21 AM permalink
I struggled with this all night, but alas, I added an 11th game...

PIT/TB under 33.5

I hate NFL unders, but this game could easily be 3-0.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 23rd, 2010 at 8:48:01 AM permalink
Quote: avargov

DAL/HOU Over 48



I like the Stanford -4, I have $200 on that myself. But ... Over 48?!? With the way Dallas is scoring points the last 10 games?

Unless you think HOU will score 35 or more, of course. But Dallas's D is pretty good ...

If I were you, I'd hedge this one ...
avargov
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September 23rd, 2010 at 10:23:30 AM permalink
Quote: ItsCalledSoccer

I like the Stanford -4, I have $200 on that myself. But ... Over 48?!? With the way Dallas is scoring points the last 10 games?

Unless you think HOU will score 35 or more, of course. But Dallas's D is pretty good ...

If I were you, I'd hedge this one ...



Here is my thinking....Hou gets out to a big lead forcing Dallas to pass. Hou has given up a ton of yards vs the pass. I am thinking around 31-21 or some such...
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 23rd, 2010 at 10:38:40 AM permalink
Quote: avargov

Here is my thinking....Hou gets out to a big lead forcing Dallas to pass. Hou has given up a ton of yards vs the pass. I am thinking around 31-21 or some such...



Hey, it's your money and your call! But I will offer this wager ...

Loser (I'll take the UNDER 48) has to put in his signature line, on this forum, for the remainder of the NFL regular season, the following:

"I made a stupid sporte bet, and I am clearly too stupid to talk about gambling in any way, shape, or form - especially sports betting. ItsCalledSoccer (or avargov, if you win) is, by far, the most intelligent, wise, and intuitive sports bettor in the history of gambling, and you ignore his advice to your own peril."

Bet?
avargov
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September 23rd, 2010 at 10:44:17 AM permalink
Hahaha! You know what? You're on! We need more humor like this on the board.

Now watch everyone, I will go 10-1, increase my roll by 3 large, and lose this one bet and be tagged forever!'
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 24th, 2010 at 8:12:04 AM permalink
Nothing better than starting the week with a solid win.

Man, this Dal/Hou bet with Itscalledsoccer has made me a nervous wreck ;-)
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Mosca
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September 24th, 2010 at 8:20:41 AM permalink
I love it!
A falling knife has no handle.
avargov
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September 24th, 2010 at 8:24:57 AM permalink
I know, right? 300 bucks a game and I don't bat an eye...one stupid signature line bet and I am fretting like crazy!!!

Ridiculous I say!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 24th, 2010 at 8:39:44 AM permalink
I'd be nervous if I took the over, too. ;-)
avargov
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September 25th, 2010 at 8:41:37 PM permalink
Wow!!! Bloodbath alert on my bankroll this week. 2-4 so far, and on the wrong side, giving the candy, on the last 2 games of the night.

Still a half to go in them so all is not lost....yet!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 26th, 2010 at 6:53:30 AM permalink
Well, 2-5-1 in the college game last night. That puts me at 18-13-1 for the season. Can still salvage a 50% week if I ace the NFL today.

Could be much worse I guess.

C'mon Dal/Hou, score a bunch, don't want to add insult to injury!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 26th, 2010 at 12:41:39 PM permalink
Although it looks like my signatue is about to change...the bankroll is what really matters. That being said, and staring 2-7 in the face, I just walked up to the kiosk and made a large cover bet on SD -4 vs Sea.

Please have good thoughts for me...and good call ItsCalledSoccer, will put that up shortly...
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 26th, 2010 at 1:11:18 PM permalink
Quote: avargov

Although it looks like my signatue is about to change...the bankroll is what really matters. That being said, and staring 2-7 in the face, I just walked up to the kiosk and made a large cover bet on SD -4 vs Sea.

Please have good thoughts for me...and good call ItsCalledSoccer, will put that up shortly...



You're an honorable gambler, avargov. No hard feelings?
avargov
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September 26th, 2010 at 1:44:08 PM permalink
None whatsoever. The game didn't go how either of us predicted tho.

As soon as I get to my laptop, I shall pay homage to you....for 14 long weeks....sheesh...lol
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 26th, 2010 at 4:52:35 PM permalink
I hate weeks like this. I hate having to be undisciiplined.

But, that is why it is ganbling I guess.

That all being said, 12 units on the Mia/NYJ over 35.5.

I hate being home on weeks like this. When I am working, I am away from the sportsbook...
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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September 26th, 2010 at 7:45:42 PM permalink
Exhale, exhale. With the Jets just scoring...my bankroll, and profit for this season is intact.

Here are the number for this horrible week:

CFB: 2-5-1
NFL: 2-3
OVR: 4-8-1

Season:

CFB: 18-13-1 58.1%
NFL: 5-4 55.6%
OVR: 23-17-1 57.5%

Because of a huge bet on the Mia/NYJ over, profit for the week was $190, which I guess is really all that matters. Need to buy some 'Just for Men' to take care of the new gray from today.

Off to change my signature...hats off to ItsCalledSoccer for his correct side.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 26th, 2010 at 7:51:04 PM permalink
Quote: avargov

I shall pay homage to you....for 14 long weeks....sheesh...lol



Heh, it'll be over before you know it, and we'll all have some laughs along the way! Good times!
avargov
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September 26th, 2010 at 7:56:37 PM permalink
You are right my friend, but it is done now...

BTW, I was worried chasing the Fins-Jets over.was gonna be a real stupid sports bet.

Good times indeed!

Edit: Guess the sig is too long???
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 26th, 2010 at 8:02:00 PM permalink
Meh, that's fine, you can just cut it off after the last "gambling" if you want!

I never did like the big chase bet at the end. I don't bet on too many games any more, just the ones I'm really comfortable with, so I end up winning about 70% of my sports bets these days. So far, for football, I'm 3-for-3 (WAS +3.5 v. DAL, Stan -4 v. ND, and Dal:Hou U-48), so so far so good. I also be on a bunch of World Cup games when I was in South Africa (interesting way they take sports bets there), and was 5-for-8, winning about R2,000 in the end, a little less than $300.
avargov
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September 26th, 2010 at 8:08:42 PM permalink
Football is about it for me these days. Been trying to get better at VP for the other 8 months of the year.

70% is a nice percentage, if you have any solid tips...send 'em my way. I may be too stupid to talk about sports betting, but I ain't too stupid to cash those tickets!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 27th, 2010 at 10:09:45 AM permalink
Quote: avargov

if you have any solid tips...send 'em my way.



Ummm ... didn't I already do that? ;-)

I'll tell you when I get a feeling or feel really comfortable, but as you can tell, it doesn't happen often and it's only with the teams I know best (Stanford, Pac-10, Dallas teams).

But under this caveat ... I know NOTHING. It's YOUR money and YOUR decision, and listening to random internet forum posters is never a good idea!
avargov
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September 27th, 2010 at 10:24:47 AM permalink
Touche'....I suppose you did.

And of course it is my decision, but any angle can be useful. I always look for info.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 27th, 2010 at 10:34:11 AM permalink
I'm interested in the O/U for Stanford:Oregon, but my usual sites haven't posted anything. If you find out what it is, post it up if you would.
avargov
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September 27th, 2010 at 11:11:54 PM permalink
I can't find the o/u yet for the game. Probably late tomorrow or early Wednesday. I would assume somewhere in the mid to upper 50's if I had to guess. Which side are you looking at?

BTW, Oregon is giving 7 pieces of candy at this point. It opened at 6 it appears, so the money is moving to the Oregon side. Although I am not real sure that is the right side to be on. Stanford's D is looking fairly stout. And it looked liked the O line was filled with some rugged fellas. But then again, Oregon is averaging, what?, 55 points a game or some such.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 28th, 2010 at 7:46:09 AM permalink
My thoughts are that the O/U is a better bet in this game. You have high-flying Oregon against tough-as-nails-to-the-point-of-being-unsportsmanlike Stanford ... only Stanford can score big points, too. I have no feel at all for the line, I really think it could go either way by as much as 14-17 points. Too variable for my gambling tastes, but it'll be a helluva watch.

It's hard to say which side to look at without seeing the actual O/U, but your guess sounds about right. The total score against Sac St. was 69, and against Wake was 92, though. I think I'd have to see the O/U and then decide if ND or Wake more closely resembles Orgeon, and make adjustments.
avargov
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September 28th, 2010 at 10:04:56 AM permalink
Found a site that is posting the O/U at 65.5. Sportsbook.com. Doesn't look like any of the books here have posted a line yet. Little higher than I thought it would be....but I guess that is about right.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 28th, 2010 at 10:29:12 AM permalink
Quote: avargov

Found a site that is posting the O/U at 65.5. Sportsbook.com. Doesn't look like any of the books here have posted a line yet. Little higher than I thought it would be....but I guess that is about right.



Wow. Vegas adjusts quickly. I was thinking it would be a no-brainer at 55 or so, but 65.5?!? Yikes. I can think on it and pass that on to you if you want, but I'm not going to put anything on it at 65.5.
avargov
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September 28th, 2010 at 10:37:12 AM permalink
Yeah, do that. Not sure if I am interested in it at 65.5 either. I think it will go down a bit though. If I were to guess, will be a lot of money on the under at that line. Guess the books are thinking 31-24 or some such. Which, now that I am thinking about it, will probably be pretty close.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
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September 30th, 2010 at 11:00:48 AM permalink
Well, all the "experts" and "simulations" say pick the under. But personally, I'm still going to avoid it for this week. Sorry about that, maybe another time.
avargov
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October 1st, 2010 at 1:57:23 PM permalink
Another weekend is here, so another chance to take the book money. Gotta be better than last week (refer to my signature). ICS, I concur with staying off Stan/Ore.

Bets for this week:

BYU -4 USU
OK -3.5 TEX
NCST +3.5 VT
KAN +9 BAY
WSU +27 UCLA

NFL:

SEA/STL over 39
BUF/NYJ over 37
MIA/NE over 46

OK ICS, lets hear what kind of moron I am....
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
GenWyzgy
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October 1st, 2010 at 3:09:31 PM permalink
This is some fun reading, nice job avargov & ICS!

I know if I lived near enough to NV to be betting, I'd be all over this thread. Good luck with your bets.
avargov
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October 1st, 2010 at 3:14:57 PM permalink
Thanks Gen...it would much more fun if I were hitting 75%!!!

And I think I gambled much more when I wasn't in NV. The books dont extend credit.......
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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October 5th, 2010 at 6:22:14 AM permalink
Less than stellar weekend. Loss of $120 on the bankroll.

CFB 2-3
NFL 2-1
OVR 4-4

Season:

CFB 20-16-1
NFL 7-5
OVR 27-21-1

Gotta start picking it up!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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October 7th, 2010 at 3:34:02 AM permalink
A new week, a new chance to lose to the books:

NEB -11.5 KSU
ARK -6 TxAM
WaST +36 ORE
USC +10 STAN
LaMon -3 FAU
ALA -6.5 SoCar

JAX -1 BUF
JAX/BUF over 41
IND/KC over 45
MIN/NYJ over 39
ATL -3 CLE

Let's see how it works out...
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
avargov
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 615
Joined: Aug 5, 2010
October 12th, 2010 at 8:08:44 AM permalink
Well, a very nice profitable week this time:

CFB 4-1-1
NFL: 4-1
OVR: 8-2-1

Overall:

CFB: 24-17-2 .585
NFL: 11-6 .647
OVR: 34-23-2 .596

I hope this trend continues....
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
avargov
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 615
Joined: Aug 5, 2010
October 14th, 2010 at 2:42:44 PM permalink
Probably over-exposing my bankroll this week, but I see alot of nice plays. Here is what I purchased this afternoon:

CFB:

KSU -3 Kansas
WVU/USF over 45
KEN/SoCAR over 55
ISU +24 OKL
SoCal -2.5 CAL
NEB -9.5 TEX
WashST +23.5 Ariz
WIS +4 OhioSt (I think Wis wins straightup)
Boise -41 SJSU

NFL:

SD -8 STL
DET/NYG over 44.5
DEN/NYJ over 41
IND/WAS over 44
TB +4.5 NO

I hope the trend continues. Please post any comments. I love sportsbetting interplay.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
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