Thread Rating:

SOOPOO
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11520
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 12th, 2016 at 3:51:05 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Because Picks are no longer due until 10:00a.m. Sunday EST, I've been posting lines later so they aren't as stagnated by then.



If I had a vote (which I don't)...... I prefer earlier lines not because of any advantage but I can't get WoV at work and if I'm doing a long shift Saturday I just like getting my picks in early. Convenience trumps lack of staleness.
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 12th, 2016 at 5:08:24 PM permalink
I'll keep that in mind and get them up on Thursdays.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 13th, 2016 at 7:49:21 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 10 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26768-2016-wov-nfl-picks-game-official-thread/4/#post563971
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
November 13th, 2016 at 8:00:43 AM permalink
14 OVER picks this weekend, vs. just 3 UNDER picks.

Lots of love for the Cowboys (12 picks) followed closely by the Giants (11), the Seahawks (11) and the Eagles (10.)

(Above numbers include Confidence Picks counted as 2.)



Enjoy the games.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
November 13th, 2016 at 10:24:30 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Well.

I suck this year.

That's the only answer left. 0-4 into tomorrow.

Gah.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
EdCollins
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
November 14th, 2016 at 8:51:29 PM permalink
Week 10 Unofficial Results

Mission146 (4-1)
Eagles +1.5 (win)
Buccaneers +2.5 (win)
49ers +14 (win)
Cowboys +2.5 (win)
Panthers OVER 44 (loss)

TheoHuxtable (1-4)
Texans OVER 42 (win)
Chiefs OVER 44 (loss)
Broncos OVER 49 (loss)
Rams OVER 40 (loss)
Falcons OVER 50 (loss)

Rainman (4-2)
Cowboys +2.5 confidence (win)
Dolphins +4 (win)
Falcons -1.5 (loss)
Vikings +2.5 (loss)
Giants +1 (win)

Wizard (5-1)
Broncos (+3) -- confidence (win)
Vikings (+2.5) (loss)
Titans (+3) (win)
Dolphins (+4) (win)
Seahawks (+7.5) (win)

Johnzimbo (1-5)
Steelers -2.5 confidence (loss)
Texans +1.5 (win)
Falcons -1 (loss)
Packers -3 (loss)
Bears -2.5 (loss)

Beachbumbabs (2-4)
Vikings +2.5 (loss)
Falcons -1.5 (loss)
Giants +1 confidence (win)
Packers -3 (loss)
Bears -2.5 (loss)

Zourah (1-4)
Packers -3 (loss)
Broncos +3 (win)
Patriots -7.5 (loss)
49ers OVER 48 (loss)
Vikings +2.5 (loss)

Scottimus1 (2-3)
Chiefs/Panthers Over 44 (loss)
Packers (-3) (loss)
Buccaneers (+2.5) (win)
Buccaneers Over 45.5 (win)
Bengals/Giants Over 47 (loss)

SOOPOO (5-1)
49ers +14 confidence (win)
Giants + 1 (win)
Seahawks + 7.5 (win)
Dolphins +4 (win)
Jets - 1.5 (loss)

WizardofNothing (3-3)
Eagles +1.5 confidence (win)
Eagles over 50 (loss)
Patriots -7.5 (loss)
Patriots over 49 (win)
Saints -3 (loss)

GWAE (3-3)
Chiefs +3 (win)
Broncos +3 (win)
Redskins -2.5 (win)
Packers -3 (loss)
Steelers -2.5 confidence (loss)

JW17 (4-2)
Broncos (+3) confidence (win)
Patriots (-7.5) (loss)
Giants (+1) (win)
Chargers (-4) (loss)
Buccaneers (+2.5) (win)

Genwyzgy (4-2)
Falcons -1.5 (loss)
Chiefs +3 (win)
Dolphins +4 (win)
Cowboys +2.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
Bengals OVER 47 (loss)

Ayecarumba (1-5)
Packers -3 (loss)
Bears -2.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
49ers OVER 45 (loss)
Patriots -7.5 (loss)
Giants +1 (win)

FourFiveFace (3-3)
Jaguars -1.5 (loss)
Saints -3 (loss)
Dolphins +4 (win)
Steelers -2.5 (loss)
Seahawks +7.5-Confidence (win)

Paradigm (2-3)
Vikings +2.5 (loss)
Seahawks +7.5 (win)
Patriots Under 49 (loss)
Panthers -3 (loss)
Texans +1.5 (win)

EdCollins (5-1)
Redskins -2.5 (confidence) (win)
Seahawks +7.5 (win)
Cowboys +2.5 (win)
Jets -1.5 (loss)
Broncos +3 (win)

Wudged (4-2)
Jaguars -1.5 - confidence (loss)
Redskins -2.5 (win)
Giants +1 (win)
Buccaneers +2.5 (win)
Seahawks +7.5 (win)

10Dollarbri (5-0)
Texans +1.5 (win)
Broncos +3 (win)
Titans +3 (win)
Eagles +1.5 (win)
Cowboys +2.5 (win)

Terapined (4-1)
49ers +14 (win)
Bucs +2.5 (win)
Vikings +2.5 (loss)
Dolphins +4 (win)
Seahawks +7.5 (win)

SM777 (2-4)
Chargers -4 (loss)
Giants +1 (win)
Saints -3 CONFIDENCE (loss)
Jets -1.5 (loss)
Seahawks +7.5 (win)

JohnnyQ (4-1)
Jaguars (-1.5) (loss)
Rams (+1.5) (win)
Eagles (+1.5) (win)
Cowboys (+2.5) (win)
Giants (+1) (win)

PlayYourCardsRight (3-3)
Jaguars -1.5 confidence (loss)
Eagles +1.5 (win)
Titans +3 (win)
Cardinals -14 (loss)
Seahawks +7.5 (win)

JoelDeze (2-4)
Cowboys +2.5 - confidence (win)
Chargers -4 (loss)
Saints -3 (loss)
Panthers -3 (loss)
Bears -2.5 (loss)

JML24 (3-2)
Saints -3 (loss)
Rams +1.5 (win)
Steelers -2.5 (loss)
Seahawks +7.5 (win)
Giants +1 (win)

Aluisio (3-3)
Broncos +3 (win)
Eagles +1.5 (win)
Vikings +2.5 (loss)
Packers -3 (confidence) (loss)
Cowboys +2.5 (win)

OdiousGambit (4-1)
Jets -1.5 (loss)
Buccaneers +2.5 (win)
Eagles +1.5 (win)
Titans +3 (win)
Cowboys +2.5 (win)

Miplet (4-2)
Jaguars -1.5 (loss)
Rams +1.5-confidence (win)
Eagles +1.5 (win)
Titans +3 (win)
Steelers -2.5 (loss)

MidwestAP (3-2)
Eagles +1.5 (win)
Packers Under 49.5 (loss)
Buccaneers +2.5 (win)
Cowboys Under 50 (loss)
Giants +1 (win)




Name Wins Losses %
10DollarBri 31 14 68.89%
Wizard 36 17 67.92%
Mission146 28 19 59.57%
Scottimus1 33 23 58.93%
Wudged 30 21 58.82%
JML24 27 19 58.70%
SOOPOO 30 23 56.60%
RDW4POTUS 26 20 56.52%
JoelDeze 31 27 53.45%
Miplet 27 24 52.94%
OdiousGambit 24 22 52.17%
TheoHuxtable 26 24 52.00%
FourFiveFace 29 27 51.79%
JohnnyQ 24 23 51.06%
EdCollins 25 24 51.02%
GenWyzgy 29 28 50.88%
Aluisio 25 25 50.00%
Rainman 27 27 50.00%
Terapined 22 22 50.00%
AyeCarumba 25 29 46.30%
Paradigm 24 29 45.28%
SM777 22 27 44.90%
BeachBumBabs 26 33 44.07%
GWAE 26 33 44.07%
JW17 26 33 44.07%
WizardofNothing 24 34 41.38%
MidwestAP 19 27 41.30%
PlayYourCardsRight 22 33 40.00%
JohnZimbo 21 34 38.18%
Zourah 17 32 34.69%
Totals 782 773 50.29%



Record of Skipped Weeks:
(players listed alphabetically)

100DollarBri: Week 8
Aluisio: Week 1
JML24: Week 7
MidwestAP: Week 6
Miplet: Week 3
Rainman: Week 7
RDW4POTUS: Week 10
SM777: Week 8
Terapined: Week 2
TheoHuxtable: Week 2
Wudged: Week 7
EdCollins
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
November 14th, 2016 at 9:00:40 PM permalink
Congrats to 100DollarBri. With his 5-0 score this week, he reclaimed the top spot he lost last week.

(Wizard was in the #1 spot last week, finished an impressive 5-1 this week, and yet lost his #1 position!)

Note that next week's Monday Night game is being played in Mexico.
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
  • Threads: 266
  • Posts: 4044
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
November 15th, 2016 at 3:03:25 PM permalink
It looked like a lot of people had a pretty good week. Overall, it was 91-72 or 55.8 % correct picks.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 18th, 2016 at 7:46:14 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 11 Lines are as follows:

Titans (+3) @ Colts (-3) O/U 52.5
Jaguars (+6.5) @ Lions (-6.5) O/U 47.5
Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Chiefs (-7.5) O/U 44.5
Bears (+7.5) @ Giants (-7.5) O/U 43.5
Cardinals (+2.5) @ Vikings (-2.5) O/U 40
Bills (+3) @ Bengals (-3) O/U 47
Ravens (+7) @ Cowboys (-7) O/U 45
Steelers (-8) @ Browns (+8) O/U 45
Dolphins (-1.5) @ Rams (+1.5) O/U 40
Patriots (-13) @ 49ers (+13) O/U 51
Eagles (+6.5) @ Seahawks (-6.5) O/U 43
Packers (+3) @ Redskins (-3) O/U 50
Texans (+6) @ Raiders (-6) O/U 46
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 20th, 2016 at 9:25:00 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 11 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26768-2016-wov-nfl-picks-game-official-thread/4/#post564690
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
wudged
wudged
wudged
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 998
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
November 20th, 2016 at 9:41:28 AM permalink
Looks like miplet has missed his second week...
miplet
miplet
miplet
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 2146
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
November 20th, 2016 at 10:27:15 AM permalink
Quote: wudged

Looks like miplet has missed his second week...

I have default picks.
Browns (+8)
Rams (+1.5)
49ers (+13)
Packers (+3)
Texans (+6)
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
wudged
wudged
wudged
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 998
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
November 20th, 2016 at 11:47:54 AM permalink
Ah, I guess Mission just forgot to put them in his post.
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 20th, 2016 at 1:24:17 PM permalink
Quote: wudged

Ah, I guess Mission just forgot to put them in his post.



Yeah, it might be lazy, but I have so many people with default picks now that I kind of rely on self-reporting. I've tried to find them all (and confirm them when someone says they have them) but I have hundreds of PM's in my Inbox, mostly from the game, of course.

Next year I'll do a Master List, but for this year, I'm just going to confirm them as they come in. I have Wizard's memorized because it's been the same thing for the last few years.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 20th, 2016 at 1:25:37 PM permalink
In fact, I'm probably going to make it a Rule next year that any default Picks must be declared on or before Week 2 to make it easier to put together a Master List.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
Thanked by
wudged
November 20th, 2016 at 5:21:34 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

In fact, I'm probably going to make it a Rule next year that any default Picks must be declared on or before Week 2 to make it easier to put together a Master List.



Or... don't accept default settings, and rely on folks to get their picks in on time.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
  • Threads: 266
  • Posts: 4044
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
November 21st, 2016 at 5:09:26 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Or... don't accept default settings, and rely on folks to get their picks in on time.

Or... how about just 1 default setting for everybody to keep it simple ? If you don't turn in picks, you get the first 5 teams alphabetically. I think that would be:

Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns

Anyhows, thanks for managing this contest for all of us !
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
EdCollins
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
November 21st, 2016 at 8:57:07 PM permalink
Week 11 Unofficial Results

Mission146 (3-1)
Buccaneers +7.5 (win)
Bears +7.5 (win)
Bills +3 (win)
49ers +13 (push)
Packers +3 (loss)

MidwestAP (3-1)
Lions -6.5 (win)
Buccaneers +7.5 (win)
Browns +8 (loss)
49ers +13 (push)
Seahawks -6.5 (win)

FourFiveFace (4-2)
Titans +3 (loss)
Buccaneers +7.5-Confidence (win)
Bears +7.5 (win)
Eagles +6.5 (loss)
Raiders -6 (win)

JW17 (4-2)
Chiefs (-7.5) (loss)
Cardinals (+2.5) (loss)
Cowboys (-7) (win)
Seahawks (-6.5) (win)
Raiders (-6) Confidence (win)

GWAE (5-1)
Colts -3 (win)
Bills +3 (win)
Ravens +7 (loss)
Steelers -8 confidence (win)
Dolphins -1.5 (win)

TheoHuxtable (2-4)
Steelers -8 Confidence (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (loss)
Bengals -3 (loss)
Rams +1.5 (loss)
Packers UNDER 50 (loss)

WizardofNothing (1-5)
Eagles +6.5-CONFIDENCE (loss)
Eagles Over 43 (loss)
Titans +3 (loss)
Dolphins -1.5 (win)
Dolphins OVER 40 (loss)

Scottimus1 (2-4)
Buccaneers/Chiefs Over 44.5 Confidence (loss)
Giants (-7.5) (loss)
Cardinals (+2.5) (loss)
Seahawks (-6.5) (win)
Texans/Raiders Over 46 (win)

Zourah (5-0)
Cowboys -7 (win)
Steelers -8 (win)
Rams UNDER 40 (win)
Bears +7.5 (win)
Bills +3 (win)

SM777 (5-1)
Bills +3 CONFIDENCE (win)
Seahawks -6.5 (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (loss)
Dolphins -1.5 (win)
Raiders -6 (win)

Rainman (4-2)
Seahawks -6.5 confidence (win)
Cowboys -7 (win)
Dolphins -1.5 (win)
Texans +6 (loss)
Packers +3 (loss)

BeachBumBabs (5-1)
Vikings -2.5 confidence (win)
Vikings over 40 (win)
Bills +3 (win)
Steelers -8 (win)
Rams +1.5 (loss)

Paradigm (1-5)
Packers +3 (loss)
Rams +1.5 (Confidence) (loss)
Browns +8 (loss)
Lions -6.5 (win)
Seahawks Over 43 (loss)

SOOPOO (3-2)
Bucs +7.5. Confidence (win)
Bengals -3 (loss)
Cowboys -7 (win)
49ers +13 (push)
Eagles + 6.5 (loss)

EdCollins (0-6)
Eagles +6.5 (loss)
Packers +3 (loss)
Ravens +7 (confidence) (loss)
Cardinals +2.5 (loss)
Jaguars +6.5 (loss)

GenWyzgy (1-4)
Jaguars +6.5 (loss)
Cardinals +2.5 (loss)
Seahawks -6.5 (win)
Packers UNDER 50 (loss)
Texans +6 (loss)

JohnZimbo (0-5)
Texans +6 (loss)
Browns +8 (loss)
Bengals -3 (loss)
Jaguars +6.5 (loss)
Rams +1.5 (loss)

JohnnyQ (2-3)
Titans (+3) (loss)
Cardinals (+2.5) (loss)
Bills (+3) (win)
Dolphins (-1.5) (win)
Packers (+3) (loss)

AyeCarumba (3-2)
Raiders OVER 46 - Confidence (win)
Eagles +6.5 (loss)
Patriots -13 (push)
Steelers -8 (win)
Giants -7.5 (loss)

Terapined (2-2)
Bucs +7.5 (win)
49ers +13 (push)
Packers +3 (loss)
Ravens +7 (loss)
Dolphins -1.5 (win)

10DollarBri (2-3)
Titans +3 (loss)
Bills +3 (win)
Cowboys.-7 (win)
Browns +8 (loss)
Texans +6 (loss)

Wudged (3-2)
bills +3 (win)
dolphins -1.5 (win)
texans +6 (loss)
colts -3 (win)
eagles +6.5 (loss)

RDW4POTUS (1-4)
Cardinals +2.5 (loss)
Rams +1.5 (loss)
Packers +3 (loss)
Eagles +6.5 (loss)
Raiders -6 (win)

Wizard (4-2)
Titans (+3) (loss)
Buccaneers (+7.5) (win)
Bills (+3) -- confidence (win)
Cowboys (-7) (win)
Packers (+3) (loss)

JoelDeze (5-1)
Cowboys -7 -confidence (win)
Colts -3 (win)
Steelers -8 (win)
Raiders -6 (win)
Dolphins OVER 40 (loss)

JML24 (3-1)
Titans +3 (loss)
Buccaneers +7.5 (win)
Bears +7.5 (win)
Bills +3 (win)
49ers +13 (push)

Aluisio (2-4)
Browns +8 (loss)
Vikings -2.5 (confidence) (win)
Eagles +6.5 (loss)
Titans +3 (loss)
Packers +3 (loss)

PlayYourCardsRight (2-3)
Vikings-Cardinals UNDER (loss)
Ravens +7 (loss)
Raiders -6 (win)
Titams-Colts OVER (loss)
Dolphins-Rams UNDER (win)

OdiousGambit (4-2)
Browns +8 (loss)
Vikings -2.5 (win)
Cowboys -7 confidence (win)
Bengals -3 (loss)
Dolphins -1.5 (win)

Miplet (0-4)
Browns (+8) (loss)
Rams (+1.5) (loss)
49ers (+13) (push)
Packers (+3) (loss)
Texans (+6) (loss)


Name Wins Losses %
Wizard 40 19 67.80%
10DollarBri 33 17 66.00%
Mission146 31 20 60.78%
JML24 30 20 60.00%
Wudged 33 23 58.93%
SOOPOO 33 25 56.90%
Scottimus1 35 27 56.45%
JoelDeze 36 28 56.25%
OdiousGambit 28 24 53.85%
FourFiveFace 33 29 53.23%
RDW4POTUS 27 24 52.94%
Rainman 31 29 51.67%
JohnnyQ 26 26 50.00%
Terapined 24 24 50.00%
TheoHuxtable 28 28 50.00%
Miplet 27 28 49.09%
SM777 27 28 49.09%
GenWyzgy 30 32 48.39%
Aluisio 27 29 48.21%
BeachBumBabs 31 34 47.69%
GWAE 31 34 47.69%
AyeCarumba 28 31 47.46%
JW17 30 35 46.15%
EdCollins 25 30 45.45%
MidwestAP 22 28 44.00%
Paradigm 25 34 42.37%
Zourah 22 32 40.74%
PlayYourCardsRight 24 36 40.00%
WizardofNothing 25 39 39.06%
JohnZimbo 21 39 35.00%
Totals 863 852 50.32%




Record of Skipped Weeks:
(players listed alphabetically)

100DollarBri: Week 8
Aluisio: Week 1
JML24: Week 7
MidwestAP: Week 6
Miplet: Week 3
Rainman: Week 7
RDW4POTUS: Week 10
SM777: Week 8
Terapined: Week 2
TheoHuxtable: Week 2
Wudged: Week 7
bazooooka
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
November 21st, 2016 at 11:11:31 PM permalink
Some talented handicappers in here it seems. Has anyone looked at the pick record against the closing line (pinnacle etc)? Or even against the prevailing line when the picks come in (i.e. timestamped). If some guys are above 55% after factoring in real time lines when picks are made that's quite impressive especially if we're talking many years of picks. Thoughts?
jml24
jml24
jml24
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 302
Joined: Feb 28, 2011
November 22nd, 2016 at 9:28:49 AM permalink
I am doing pretty well this year but averaging the previous years of the game I was slightly below 50% so I think it is mainly luck. That is also WITH the benefit of seeing the line moves, which I definitely look for. I don't follow football closely and certainly don't use any special knowledge or traditional handicapping methods.

The Wizard has the most consistent record over the years that Mission has been running this game, and he has mentioned that line moves are a big part of his picks as well.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
November 22nd, 2016 at 10:19:32 AM permalink
Please confirm the schedule for this holiday weekend. No Thanksgiving games, just Sunday/Monday as usual, but will the lines post on Thanksgiving Thursday?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
bazooooka
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
November 22nd, 2016 at 2:25:32 PM permalink
Wizard's picks do seem to be above 55% even if you take out the confidence extra points and assume he is getting closing lines available as of Saturday night. It would be great though if we tracked these against the Sunday morning lines (which are essentially the closing line). It is impressive to seem some of the same pickers near the top if you look back a few years of data.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
Zourah
November 22nd, 2016 at 3:06:22 PM permalink
It is still a dream of mine to write a book on advantage sports betting requiring no knowledge of handicapping. Hopefully after I win a third time I can count on you guys to buy a copy.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
bazooooka
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
November 22nd, 2016 at 3:57:10 PM permalink
Wizard, the best cappers I know don't even like or watch Sports. I guess it keeps them somewhat free from bias. However, do you think someone can beat the line 55% over 1000 picks? Seems even the best have found their edges diminish as the books surely are computer/quant driven nowadays. Seems most guys now have to pick their spots and only take on bets that are high +EV. But then again when these guys go like 20-12 on the year it's hard to surely conclude that is more than just chance. 2000-1200 across all sports and games would be quite amazing if such a person (other than Walters?) exists still.
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 22nd, 2016 at 7:10:23 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Please confirm the schedule for this holiday weekend. No Thanksgiving games, just Sunday/Monday as usual, but will the lines post on Thanksgiving Thursday?



Yes to both.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 22nd, 2016 at 7:11:34 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Wizard's picks do seem to be above 55% even if you take out the confidence extra points and assume he is getting closing lines available as of Saturday night. It would be great though if we tracked these against the Sunday morning lines (which are essentially the closing line). It is impressive to seem some of the same pickers near the top if you look back a few years of data.



Welcome to WoV! I certainly hope you will consider playing next year, and definitely make sure to participate in my Playoff Picks Game, which has no entry fee.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
bazooooka
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
November 22nd, 2016 at 7:19:18 PM permalink
I'd for sure play next season. Seems like FUN.

I enjoy pickem contests and have done well. But whenever I'm in Tahoe/Vegas I never do too hot with bigger dollars. Sure I've gone 7 for 10 on a weekend. But never 60+ out of 100 picks with $$$ on the Vegas line. I often wonder who can in the 2016/2017 era, especially since many/most of us get picks in just before game time and/or same day.
Last edited by: bazooooka on Nov 22, 2016
GWAE
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
November 23rd, 2016 at 3:05:44 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It is still a dream of mine to write a book on advantage sports betting requiring no knowledge of handicapping. Hopefully after I win a third time I can count on you guys to buy a copy.



As long as it is not priced like CAA. (Did I get that right)
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:10:19 AM permalink
Confidence Wins

NameWonLostPushPctCurrent Win Streak
JoelDeze83072.7%6
Wizard71187.5%4
Rainman64060.0%4
SOOPOO54155.6%4
Miplet53162.5%3
FourFiveFace64160.0%3
JML24200100.0%2
TheoHuxtable52071.4%2
BeachBumBabs56045.5%2
JW1746040.0%2
OdiousGambit101100.0%1
RDW4POTUS100100.0%1
Aluisio53062.5%1
SM77744150.0%1
AyeCarumba34042.9%1
Genwyzgy35037.5%1
GWAE47036.4%1
EdCollins22050.0%0
Wudged34042.9%0
WizardofNothing47036.4%0
Scottimus136033.3%0
JohnZimbo24133.3%0
Paradigm24033.3%0
PlayYourCardsRight14020.0%0
MidwestAP0100.0%0


Most Wins: JoelDeze (8 wins), Wizard (7 wins)
Hottest Streak: JoelDeze (6 Wins in a row)
Most Consistent (WinPct with most wins): Wizard (87.5% with a 7-1-1 Record)
Perfection in Small Numbers: JML24 (2-0), OdiousGambit (1-0), and RDW4POTUS (1-0)
Most Losses: Tied (GWAE and WizardOfNothing) (7 losses)
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:23:37 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It is still a dream of mine to write a book on advantage sports betting requiring no knowledge of handicapping. Hopefully after I win a third time I can count on you guys to buy a copy.



You've been doing very well and this really has been a fun contest to watch week in and week out. I'm happy to have played. I'm more impressed with your win pct. on confidence picks to date.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
GWAE
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
November 23rd, 2016 at 3:17:54 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

You've been doing very well and this really has been a fun contest to watch week in and week out. I'm happy to have played. I'm more impressed with your win pct. on confidence picks to date.



You would be more impressed if you looked at his record for the last 3 years.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
November 24th, 2016 at 12:40:53 PM permalink
Well ,crap.



Crap.



Crap.



Crap.



Kitty Litter.



Lions.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
JoelDeze
November 24th, 2016 at 7:13:13 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 12 Lines are as follows:

Chargers (-1.5) @ Texans (+1.5) O/U 46.5
Titans (-5) @ Bears (+5) O/U 42
Jaguars (+7.5) @ Bills (-7.5) O/U 45
Bengals (+4) @ Ravens (-4) O/U 40.5
Cardinals (+5) @ Falcons (-5) O/U 50.5
49ers (+7.5) @ Dolphins (-7.5) O/U 44.5
Rams (+7) @ Saints (-7) O/U 45.5
Giants (-7) @ Browns (+7) O/U 44
Seahawks (-6) @ Buccaneers (+6) O/U 45
Panthers (+3) @ Raiders (-3) O/U 49
Chiefs (+3.5) @ Broncos (-3.5) O/U 39.5
Patriots (-7.5) @ Jets (+7.5) O/U 46.5
Packers (+4) @ Eagles (-4) O/U 47.5
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 27th, 2016 at 9:16:45 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 12 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/26768-2016-wov-nfl-picks-game-official-thread/4/#post565423
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
wudged
wudged
wudged
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 998
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
November 27th, 2016 at 9:20:58 AM permalink
Does jml24 have default picks?
EdCollins
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
November 27th, 2016 at 9:23:54 AM permalink
Quote: wudged

Does jml24 have default picks?


Thank you. I was just about to post this. He is an impressive 30-20 but has already skipped one week. Hate to have to give him an 0-5 forfeit for the week.

No picks from Aluisio either... and this will also be his second skipped week.
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 27th, 2016 at 9:30:41 AM permalink
Let me go through and check on them both, I want to say Aluisio does, not sure about JML24.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 27th, 2016 at 9:37:52 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Thank you. I was just about to post this. He is an impressive 30-20 but has already skipped one week. Hate to have to give him an 0-5 forfeit for the week.

No picks from Aluisio either... and this will also be his second skipped week.



Wrong about JML24, his default is first five underdogs.

JML24:

Texans +1.5
Bears +5
Jaguars +7.5
Bengals +4
Cardinals +5
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 27th, 2016 at 9:40:00 AM permalink
I can't find any default strategy for Aluisio, but if he says he has one, I'll look again.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
jml24
jml24
jml24
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 302
Joined: Feb 28, 2011
November 27th, 2016 at 11:16:28 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Wrong about JML24, his default is first five underdogs.

JML24:

Texans +1.5
Bears +5
Jaguars +7.5
Bengals +4
Cardinals +5



Thanks Mission! I totally spaced what with holiday weekend travel. Of course, I might still go 0-5 :-)
Zourah
Zourah
Zourah
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 125
Joined: Mar 26, 2016
November 27th, 2016 at 5:47:43 PM permalink
Play Your Cards Right is contending for the "You Suck" prize along with myself and a couple other players.

According to what was posted, he (I'm assuming gender here, sorry) picked the Falcons game for an over under but there is no statement of whether he picked the over or under. I don't know how you're going to handle this because it is kind of an advantage for him to get this wrong???
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
Zourah
November 27th, 2016 at 5:56:27 PM permalink
Quote: Zourah

Play Your Cards Right is contending for the "You Suck" prize along with myself and a couple other players.

According to what was posted, he (I'm assuming gender here, sorry) picked the Falcons game for an over under but there is no statement of whether he picked the over or under. I don't know how you're going to handle this because it is kind of an advantage for him to get this wrong???



That's my fault, the pick is actually Falcons-OVER and I have changed it, so it's a winning pick. The problem was that he included the words, 'Over' or 'Under,' on his two total picks but accidentally included the names of both teams. My intention was to delete the names of one of the teams, not the word, 'Over,' sorry about that.

I'm also adding the Picks of JML24 to the Official Thread.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 3493
Joined: Jul 3, 2015
November 27th, 2016 at 6:01:26 PM permalink
What happens with the you suck prize- if you take an 0-5 does that count towards it ???
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
EdCollins
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Zourah
November 27th, 2016 at 6:02:11 PM permalink
Quote: Zourah

Play Your Cards Right is contending for the "You Suck" prize along with myself and a couple other players.

According to what was posted, he (I'm assuming gender here, sorry) picked the Falcons game for an over under but there is no statement of whether he picked the over or under. I don't know how you're going to handle this because it is kind of an advantage for him to get this wrong???


Good catch.

I agree. Considering his current record, it isn't right to give him an automatic loss for that selection at this point. Not with him in serious contention for this year's "You Suck" prize. Probably best for Mission to award this as a "win."

For the moment I'm going to grade it as a win for that reason, until told differently.

EDIT: I posted this before seeing Mission's response. Thanks.
EdCollins
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
November 27th, 2016 at 6:04:54 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

What happens with the you suck prize- if you take an 0-5 does that count towards it ???


If you have skip a second week, you are given an 0-5 forfeit for that week and and can continue playing if you chose. However, at that point you are no longer eligible for the Most Average Prize and no longer eligible for the You Suck prize.
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 1189
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
November 27th, 2016 at 6:46:02 PM permalink
I am the current You Suck leader and unfortunately am having a week where my picks are winning, dang it!
Mission146
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 27th, 2016 at 7:05:21 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

I am the current You Suck leader and unfortunately am having a week where my picks are winning, dang it!



Just do the same thing you did when you were trying to win the competition, pick the teams you think will cover! JK
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Zourah
Zourah
Zourah
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 125
Joined: Mar 26, 2016
November 27th, 2016 at 7:36:53 PM permalink
That happened to me last week - I try to make picks based on my honest opinions because I know they should be wrong but it's hard to do!
PlayYourCardsRight
PlayYourCardsRight
PlayYourCardsRight
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 331
Joined: Dec 29, 2011
November 27th, 2016 at 10:32:14 PM permalink
Mission is correct about my pic. I agree, however, that had there been a clerical error on my part that counting it as a loss would not be fair. I wish I was sick as successful as sucking at this as I apparently am, but if I try to suck then I'm not doing it.

Thanks mission for the clarification on my pic and appreciate everyone's understanding.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
November 28th, 2016 at 12:08:24 PM permalink
All the confidence games have been played for this week.

Confidence Pick Results (YTD)

-- Sorted by Streak
-- then sorted by Wins/Win PCT

NameWonLostPushPctCurrent Win Streak
JoelDeze93075.0%7
SOOPOO64160.0%5
Wizard71187.5%4
Miplet63166.7%4
JW1747036.4%3
JML24200100.0%2
AyeCarumba44050.0%2
BeachBumBabs56045.5%2
Genwyzgy45044.4%2
GWAE57041.7%2
OdiousGambit101100.0%1
RDW4POTUS100100.0%1
Aluisio53062.5%1
SM77744250.0%1
Paradigm34042.9%1
WizardofNothing57041.7%1
Scottimus146040.0%1
TheoHuxtable53062.5%0
FourFiveFace65154.5%0
Rainman65054.5%0
EdCollins22050.0%0
Wudged35037.5%0
JohnZimbo24133.3%0
PlayYourCardsRight14020.0%0
MidwestAP0100.0%0


Sorted Win Pct (min qualifying number of games 4 or 25% of total weeks played)

NameGamesWonLostPushPctCurrent Win Streak
Wizard971187.5%4
JoelDeze1293075.0%7
Miplet1063166.7%4
Aluisio853062.5%1
TheoHuxtable853062.5%0
SOOPOO1164160.0%5
FourFiveFace1265154.5%0
Rainman1165054.5%0
SM7771044250.0%1
AyeCarumba844050.0%2
EdCollins422050.0%0
BeachBumBabs1156045.5%2
Genwyzgy945044.4%2
Paradigm734042.9%1
GWAE1257041.7%2
WizardofNothing1257041.7%1
Scottimus11046040.0%1
Wudged835037.5%0
JW171147036.4%3
JohnZimbo724133.3%0
PlayYourCardsRight514020.0%0
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
RSS Feed
  • Jump to: