2016 WoV NFL Picks Game (Discussion Thread)

Quote: terapined

Compiled our picks. of course 1 for a pick and 2 for confidence

Least Love
Seahawks 0
Falcons 1

Quote: 10DollarBri

EdCollins would you kindly provide a link to your picks game calculator again this year?

Quote: EdCollins

Okay. Let me play with it first, for the weekend, to make sure all the changes I made to get it ready for this year's contest (which includes our new rules), is working okay.

Quote: EdCollins

Note: I don't see anyone who picked the Falcons, so they should have 0 love also. :)

(My calculator program provides a weekly summary, which is how I caught this.)

Quote: SM777

Why does Joel Deze only have 4 picks listed on the official thread?

Quote: GWAE

Starting out 0-3. There is no way I don't win the worst record award. I have been picking at a 30% clip for the last 3 years. And that is only picking 4-6 games a week. If I would have bet the opposite of my picks for the last 3 years I would be wealthy.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Mission; fwiw, your keeping the official thread closed seems to be keeping it off the recent posts list as well. Maybe it could be open, with a link posted below to the discussion thread for comments? Just a thought.

Quote: JoelDeze

This is my first time joining for this game and I misinterpreted the rules. I believed you could insert a confidence pick (that would count as 2 games) instead of doing a 5th. I would have been more than happy to submit a 5th pick but the timing would have been difficult, especially considering I was celebrating my anniversary last night with my wife.

Thanks to Mission for allowing it.

Quote: GWAE

Starting out 0-3.

Quote: JohnnyQ

Well good thing that the NFL season is not just 1 week.

Quote: Zourah

I really want to thank Mission for doing this again.

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Did you even enter the contest afraidwolf

Quote: GWAE

I got steelers as confident pick. You all do what you want with that info.

Quote: GWAE

I got steelers as confident pick. You all do what you want with that info.

Quote: DRich

Damn you!!! I just made a bet on the Steeler's -1.5 right before I saw this. Now I am wondering if I should hedge it because your track record is becoming infamous.

Quote: 10DollarBri

EdCollins would you kindly provide a link to your picks game calculator again this year?

Quote: EdCollins

Mission, while it's still early in the contest, and before anyone has done so, we should clarify what the penalty will be, if any at all, if a player "accidentally" makes opposing picks. (For example, if a player picked the 49ers and also picked the Rams this past week.)

Note that this "opposing pick strategy" might be ideal (normally it would be a win for one game and a loss for the other game) if a person wants to stay at or near .500!

If we agree this is not "in the spirit of the game" to do this, then normally you could give them a loss for each pick.

But this year, with the Most Average Prize and the You Suck Prize, two losses might be exactly what they want. For example, it might be ideal to be subjected to a two loss penalty if a player is exactly two games above .500 late in the season or if they are near the bottom of the pack. If they are four games above .500, they could do this with four of their picks, guaranteeing them four losses!

So intentionally breaking the rules and giving two losses for it, can't be the way to go.

So what's the answer? Do we simply allow opposing picks this year? If we don't, then what exactly is the penalty?

Quote: beachbumbabs

Thank you, wudged, for making me not the bottom on week one. Gnash.

I take under 40.5. Game total 41.
I take GB -5. They win by 4.
I take KC 6.5. Difference is 6 because it goes to OT, where they don't kick the PAT. Great comeback, though.

Wah wah wah. Pass the cheese, please.

Onward.

Quote: GWAE

in order to make money you have to be above what? 55%?

Quote: MidwestAP

I've noticed some interest in seeing aggregated results of Mission's picks games over the years, so I took a few minutes to pull the data together. I believe this is the fifth season, so the data below is compiled from the first four, starting with 2012. If I'm wrong, please let me know and I can go back further.

- There are 7 players who have participated in all four seasons, Wizard, JohnZimbo, Steeldco, AyeCarumba, Miplet, Mission, and Ten2Win.

- In 2012, there wasn't an option to forfeit (go 0-5) once you exceeded your skip week, you were just out.

- The list of champions are:

2012 Wizard (71.26%)
2013 BoyMimbo (57.95%)
2014 Wizard (70.00%)
2015 Ed Collins (59.04%)

- I've listed the aggregated results for all participants with at least 200 picks over those four seasons. I have the complete record if anyone is interested in knowing other results.

- The results include confidence picks as double, and exclude the forfeited 0-5 weeks (except 2014, as I couldn't identify those who took forfeits)

- The aggregated record for all players (53 unique participants over four seasons) is 4638-4622 (50.09%)

Player	Win	Loss	Pct
Wizard	220	139	61.28%
MidwestAP	129	108	54.43%
Vendman1	106	94	53.00%
Mission146	174	156	52.73%
JW17	137	123	52.69%
Paradigm	132	121	52.17%
Miplet	184	169	52.12%
beachbumbabs	123	115	51.68%
JohnZimbo	192	183	51.20%
RDWPotus	107	103	50.95%
Terapined	126	122	50.81%
EdCollins	131	130	50.19%
AyeCarumba	185	185	50.00%
Steeldco	188	190	49.74%
StrictlyAP	133	135	49.63%
Aluiso	133	136	49.44%
JML24	129	134	49.05%
10DollarBri	126	135	48.28%
Ten2Win	172	198	46.49%
SOOPOO	137	159	46.28%

Quote: EdCollins

Mission, while it's still early in the contest, and before anyone has done so, we should clarify what the penalty will be, if any at all, if a player "accidentally" makes opposing picks. (For example, if a player picked the 49ers and also picked the Rams this past week.)

So intentionally breaking the rules and giving two losses for it, can't be the way to go.

So what's the answer? Do we simply allow opposing picks this year? If we don't, then what exactly is the penalty?

Quote: MidwestAP

I've noticed some interest in seeing aggregated results of Mission's picks games over the years, so I took a few minutes to pull the data together. I believe this is the fifth season, so the data below is compiled from the first four, starting with 2012. If I'm wrong, please let me know and I can go back further...

Quote:

It's to my understanding that Mike makes market value picks? I think He's said many times he doesn't try to HC.

Would one be able to get down on all the games at the same line you guys put up?

Quote: Mission146

Quote: EdCollins

Mission, while it's still early in the contest, and before anyone has done so, we should clarify what the penalty will be, if any at all, if a player "accidentally" makes opposing picks. (For example, if a player picked the 49ers and also picked the Rams this past week.)

So intentionally breaking the rules and giving two losses for it, can't be the way to go.

So what's the answer? Do we simply allow opposing picks this year? If we don't, then what exactly is the penalty?

I would suggest that opposing Picks simply counting as a, 'Skip,' Week would solve the problem, with two occasions counting as a double skip that forfeits the potential to win anything except the top prize.

By the way, thanks, as always, for tracking the Standings!

Quote: Ayecarumba

Note that the results also include some of the later weeks where trailing players had to fade the leaders obvious picks in hopes of gaining ground. I don't think we would have made those bets in a non-contest environment, so take the records (outside of the Wizard's strong performance) with a few grains of salt.

Also, I won the contest in 2013. There was some confusion as I actually sat out the last week, but my "if I had entered, here is what I would have done" picks were put in the mix.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I may be reading what Mission said wrong, but I think you guys are in agreement on this. A skip week is effectively voided, so no benefit to the person who did it over simply taking their skip week, and a second fouled pick (which is what we've always done to opposing picks) dq's the person from the mediocre and Suck prizes.

So I think we're talking process and terminology, and the result is the same.