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DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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August 8th, 2016 at 1:23:00 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

DrawingDead, I gather you aren't a fan of card counting in BJ? It doesn't work?

It sure as hell doesn't if someone imagines the "count" of cards that are in a different deck at a different table based on what cards they saw dealt in some other deck at another casino the day before yesterday. No, that does not "work."

But when someone desires to "see" a pattern among independent events, they will indeed "find" what they seek if they are willing to squint hard enough long enough. I think it would be a shame if your interesting results from your baseball algorithm get buried under a muck of martingaling.

Quote: Wikipedia

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature).

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Aug 8, 2016
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Shootress
Shootress
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August 8th, 2016 at 1:26:43 PM permalink
Steeldco, I'm new to the boards and I've enjoyed following your picks. I've been playing them all daily, at a much lower level (I live in a state that doesn't offer legalized sports betting..but honestly couldn't afford those levels anyway. Doesn't matter..I'm having a bunch of fun!!). Don't let the naysayers bring you down. There's always someone who thinks they can do better. Rise above! I'm looking forward to a winning Monday.
!
steeldco
steeldco
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August 8th, 2016 at 1:28:13 PM permalink
Good to hear Shootress. Thank you!!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 8th, 2016 at 1:53:23 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

It sure as hell doesn't if someone imagines the "count" of cards that are in a different deck at a different table based on what cards they saw dealt in some other deck at another casino the day before yesterday. No, that does not "work."

But when someone desires to "see" a pattern among independent events, they will indeed "find" what they seek if they are willing to squint hard enough long enough. I think it would be a shame if your interesting results from your baseball algorithm get buried under a muck of martingaling.



You can quote Wikipedia, or anything or anybody else, but you have to be sure that you correctly understand the variables involved. Will all due respect, you are unilaterally applying a common wisdom. We'll focus on card counting in BJ. If you were to apply the common wisdom of the events being independent then you could not believe that card counting in BJ would work. As you suggested a couple of posts ago, how do you know that you're not at the beginning of a long losing streak even though the count may be in your favor?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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August 8th, 2016 at 2:02:47 PM permalink
If you are going down this road again, you need to ask yourself what "variable is involved" in the outcome of the Mets vs. the Cubs on Thursday somehow being imagined to affect the outcome of the Rangers vs. the Astros on Sunday.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 8th, 2016 at 2:02:51 PM permalink
DrawingDead, btw, how do you feel about regression to the mean in data analysis? I assume that you do not believe it should be used since it takes into consideration a prior event?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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August 8th, 2016 at 2:26:03 PM permalink
Oh my. That does not mean what you think it does. It means the opposite of what you are trying to imagine. Regression to the mean does not occur because prior independent events make any particular outcome in later events any more or less likely at all. It occurs in the continued random distribution of variance as sample size gets larger. Heads or tails do not become any more or less "due" in the next event.

I see there is apparently a belief system involved in some of the prospective choices on wager size, and this is not likely going to be a useful discussion to continue, with the potential to go 'round in circles endlessly. I hope you will track actual results of your algorithm in ways that do not become obscured by martingaling of your betting which is unrelated to the predictive utility of your work with your baseball data algorithm. Good luck.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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August 8th, 2016 at 5:35:00 PM permalink
I did not say to drop dead, no I did not.

But I got some chalk in my pocket, just in case I want to draw a hopscotch pattern on some sidewalk ;-)

Just feathers.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
beerseason
beerseason
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August 8th, 2016 at 10:10:21 PM permalink
I'm glad I pushed my bets tonight. I raised mine to 50 got the desired outcome. I just flat bet everyone of your 7x bets. Although I am curious how a plus 130 dog fares when it is also a focus pick.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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August 9th, 2016 at 4:59:57 AM permalink
08/08/16 Results:
 Marlins -150
 Braves 1008
 Twins 114
 Rockies -100
 Athletics 959
 Dodgers 100
 Tigers -100

Yesterday's results: 1,831
+130dogs 1,967
Other dogs -86
Favorites -50
Focus Picks 0
dogflips 0

YTD Total 21,977
+130dogs 11,032
Other dogs -916
Favorites -1,918
Focus Picks 14,441
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 9th, 2016 at 5:02:14 AM permalink
Quote: beerseason

I'm glad I pushed my bets tonight. I raised mine to 50 got the desired outcome. I just flat bet everyone of your 7x bets. Although I am curious how a plus 130 dog fares when it is also a focus pick.



Unfortunately, I can't track those. The way that I accumulate the picks is a 2 step process. It selects all picks except the focus picks and then there a second algorithm applied to select the focus picks. Part of it is to disregard anything picked in the first step.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
August 9th, 2016 at 5:09:52 AM permalink
08/09/16 Picks:
 Rays 173 +130DOG 7X's
 Nationals -186 FOCUS 7X's
 Marlins 103
 Diamondbacks 112
 Cubs -216
 Braves 129
 Twins 105
 Reds 163 +130DOG 7X's
 Royals 117
 Dodgers -194
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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August 9th, 2016 at 8:21:01 AM permalink
I meant to parlay Braves and Athletics last night, somehow I picked the Astros by accident .... fml ....

Looks like you are back on an upswing though, keep em coming :)
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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August 10th, 2016 at 3:54:50 AM permalink
08/09/16 Results:
 Rays +1211
 Nationals -1302
 Marlins +103
 Diamondbacks +112
 Cubs +100
 Braves +129
 Twins -100
 Reds +1141
 Royals -100
 Dodgers +100

Yesterday's results: +1,394
+130dogs +2,352
Other dogs +144
Favorites +200
Focus Picks -1,302
dogflips 0

YTD Total +23,371
+130dogs +13,384
Other dogs -772
Favorites -1,718
Focus Picks +13,139
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 10th, 2016 at 4:05:57 AM permalink
08/10/16 Picks:
 Phillies 185 +130DOG 7X's
 Rays 180 +130DOG 7X's
 Cardinals -164
 Rockies 147 +130DOG 7X's
 Twins 122
 White Sox -104
 Mariners 108
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 10th, 2016 at 2:12:57 PM permalink
I'm beginning to like the Phillies a whole lot more than I used to...................even though it's not over.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
beerseason
beerseason
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August 10th, 2016 at 3:12:45 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I'm beginning to like the Phillies a whole lot more than I used to...................even though it's not over.



Howards double was yuuuuuuge.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 10th, 2016 at 4:22:41 PM permalink
Quote: beerseason

Howards double was yuuuuuuge.



Yep. A great start to a great day!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 11th, 2016 at 4:07:07 AM permalink
08/10/16 Results:
 Phillies 1295
 Rays -700
 Cardinals 100
 Rockies -700
 Twins 0
 White Sox -104
 Mariners 108

Yesterday's results: -1
+130dogs -105
Other dogs 108
Favorites -4
Focus Picks 0
dogflips 0

YTD Total 23,370
+130dogs 13,279
Other dogs -664
Favorites -1,722
Focus Picks 13,139
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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August 11th, 2016 at 5:41:01 AM permalink
That's alot of work for what amounts to a 'push'. LOL

Then someone at the table says, 'I count a push as a win'.
I reply, 'I don't, just wear and tear on the cards'.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
steeldco
steeldco
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August 11th, 2016 at 5:44:03 AM permalink
Yep........what's the old saying? "If you always win, nobody will want to play with you".
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 11th, 2016 at 7:48:00 AM permalink
08/11/16 Picks:
 Mets -225 FOCUS 7X's
 Astros -105
 Yankees 120
 Royals -156
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 12th, 2016 at 5:09:15 AM permalink
08/11/16 Results:
 Mets -1575
 Astros 100
 Yankees 120
 Royals 100

Yesterday's results: -1,255
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 120
Favorites 200
Focus Picks -1,575
dogflips 0

YTD Total 22,115
+130dogs 13,279
Other dogs -544
Favorites -1,522
Focus Picks 11,564
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 12th, 2016 at 5:19:40 AM permalink
08/12/16 Picks:
 Cardinals 170 +130DOG 7X's
 Nationals -260 FOCUS 7X's
 Phillies 130 +130DOG 7X's
 Astros 113
 Angels 140 +130DOG 7X's
 Red Sox -250
 Tigers 175 +130DOG 7X's
 Reds 104
 Royals 105 FOCUS 7X's
 Mariners 113
 Pirates 154 +130DOG 7X's
 Giants 112
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
wezvidz
wezvidz
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August 12th, 2016 at 8:53:09 AM permalink
Lots of picks and 7xs today. Let's hit big!
steeldco
steeldco
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August 12th, 2016 at 9:01:16 AM permalink
A fresh bottle is sitting on the table......ready to be cracked open........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 13th, 2016 at 5:28:38 AM permalink
08/12/16 Results:
 Cardinals -700
 Nationals -1820
 Phillies 910
 Astros 113
 Angels -700
 Red Sox 100
 Tigers -700
 Reds 104
 Royals 735
 Mariners -100
 Pirates 1078
 Giants -100

Yesterday's results: -1,080
+130dogs -112
Other dogs 17
Favorites 100
Focus Picks -1,085
dogflips 0

YTD Total 21,035
+130dogs 13,167
Other dogs -527
Favorites -1,422
Focus Picks 10,479
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 13th, 2016 at 7:42:01 AM permalink
08/12/16 Picks:
 Astros 140 +130DOG 7X's
 Cardinals 183 +130DOG 7X's
 Pirates 117 FOCUS 7X's
 Phillies 107
 Reds 120
 Royals 129
 Angels 108
 White Sox 165 +130DOG 7X's
 Diamondbacks 183 +130DOG 7X's
 Rangers -168
 Athletics 122
 Orioles 140 +130DOG 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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August 14th, 2016 at 5:10:41 AM permalink
08/13/16 Results:
 Astros -700
 Cardinals 1281
 Pirates -700
 Phillies 107
 Reds 120
 Royals -100
 Angels -100
 White Sox 1155
 Diamondbacks -700
 Rangers -168
 Athletics -100
 Orioles -700

Yesterday's results: -605
+130dogs 336
Other dogs -73
Favorites -168
Focus Picks -700
dogflips 0

YTD Total 20,430
+130dogs 13,503
Other dogs -600
Favorites -1,590
Focus Picks 9,779
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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August 14th, 2016 at 5:29:40 AM permalink
08/14/16 Picks:
 Rays -102
 Indians -181
 Marlins 112 FOCUS 7X's
 Phillies 125 FOCUS 7X's
 Nationals -225
 Diamondbacks 146 +130DOG 7X's
 Reds 111
 Royals 110
 Tigers -102
 Athletics -103
 Pirates 147 +130DOG 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Shootress
Shootress
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August 14th, 2016 at 6:11:17 AM permalink
Sometimes ignorance really is bliss. I mistakenly took all of Friday's picks again yesterday. Turned into a great day!
!
steeldco
steeldco
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August 14th, 2016 at 6:12:36 AM permalink
Fantastic! Nice when that happens.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
wezvidz
wezvidz
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August 14th, 2016 at 3:37:16 PM permalink
After a few days of breakeven or slight losses following a number of steel's picks, I decided to do them all today but for about half what I normally wager. Oops. Absolutely killing it! Looks like 8-3, 3-1 on 7xs. Unless you're looking to hit 11 for 11, I say crack that bottle tonight :)
steeldco
steeldco
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August 15th, 2016 at 7:11:15 AM permalink
Quote: wezvidz

After a few days of breakeven or slight losses following a number of steel's picks, I decided to do them all today but for about half what I normally wager. Oops. Absolutely killing it! Looks like 8-3, 3-1 on 7xs. Unless you're looking to hit 11 for 11, I say crack that bottle tonight :)



I was way ahead of you.......and now I'm hurtin'.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
August 15th, 2016 at 7:11:43 AM permalink
08/14/16 Results:
 Rays 100
 Indians 100
 Marlins 784
 Phillies 875
 Nationals 100
 Diamondbacks -700
 Reds -100
 Royals 110
 Tigers 100
 Athletics -103
 Pirates 1029

Yesterday's results: 2,295
+130dogs 329
Other dogs 10
Favorites 297
Focus Picks 1,659
dogflips 0

YTD Total 22,725
+130dogs 13,832
Other dogs -590
Favorites -1,293
Focus Picks 11,438
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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August 15th, 2016 at 8:36:57 AM permalink
08/15/16 Picks:
 Indians 106
 Yankees 108
 Royals 128
 Rays -173
 Rockies 175 +130DOG 7X's
 Mets 103 FOCUS 7X's
 Angels 118
 Pirates 128
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
August 16th, 2016 at 5:21:03 AM permalink
08/15/16 Results:
 Indians -100
 Yankees 108
 Royals 128
 Rays 100
 Rockies -700
 Mets -700
 Angels -100
 Pirates 128

Yesterday's results: -1,136
+130dogs -700
Other dogs 164
Favorites 100
Focus Picks -700
dogflips 0

YTD Total 21,589
+130dogs 13,132
Other dogs -426
Favorites -1,193
Focus Picks 10,738
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
  • Threads: 6
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August 16th, 2016 at 6:42:13 AM permalink
good work steeldco, reading back through comments made, recently, seems some just dont get this thing you are doing at all. you are giving selections free, for all to use as they wish, how ever they wish using whatever stake system they choose thats right for them at this stage. It is no ones buisness to say who is wrong or right as to how one should wager on selections... I cannot recall you setting any rules that we must follow so we can use your selections. You are basically saying here you go boys and girls... enjoy.. share with me this MLB as you see fit.. Oh if you can make some cash from these selections good for you..
Once again Steeldco thanks for sharing...
steeldco
steeldco
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August 16th, 2016 at 6:51:34 AM permalink
Thanks beachmonkey for the kind words.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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August 16th, 2016 at 9:37:53 AM permalink
08/16/16 Picks:
 Orioles EV
 Marlins 120
 Royals 133 +130DOG 7X's
 Indians -172
 Athletics 127
 Cardinals 148 +130DOG 7X's
 Mets -160 FOCUS 7X's
 Angels 105
 Pirates -102
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
August 17th, 2016 at 4:50:31 AM permalink
08/16/16 Results:
 Orioles -100
 Marlins -100
 Royals 931
 Indians 100
 Athletics -100
 Cardinals 1036
 Mets 700
 Angels 105
 Pirates 100

Yesterday's results: 2,672
+130dogs 1,967
Other dogs -95
Favorites 100
Focus Picks 700
dogflips 0

YTD Total 24,261
+130dogs 15,099
Other dogs -521
Favorites -1,093
Focus Picks 11,438
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
  • Threads: 13
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August 17th, 2016 at 6:40:04 AM permalink
great night yesterday -- thank you
steeldco
steeldco
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August 17th, 2016 at 6:42:24 AM permalink
Quote: IndyJeffrey

great night yesterday -- thank you



You're welcome!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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August 17th, 2016 at 8:12:02 AM permalink
I've been using www.baseball-reference.com for some of my data. They haven't updated yesterday's activity and when I wrote them an email from their site, it was returned as undelivered. I hope they haven't gone out of business. Would hate to have to change connections.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
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August 17th, 2016 at 9:30:34 AM permalink
he's (@baseball_ref) tweeting today -- for what that is worth
steeldco
steeldco
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August 17th, 2016 at 9:42:42 AM permalink
Thanks!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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August 17th, 2016 at 9:50:20 AM permalink
08/17/16 Picks:
 Yankees 133 +130DOG 7X's
 Padres 188 +130DOG 7X's
 Cardinals 107
 Phillies 159 +130DOG 7X's
 Orioles 105 FOCUS 7X's
 Marlins 104
 Twins EV
 Cubs -285
 Athletics 190 +130DOG 7X's
 Mets 108
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
August 18th, 2016 at 6:08:41 AM permalink
Ouch......daddy said there'd be days like this...

08/17/16 Results:
 Yankees -700
 Padres -700
 Cardinals 107
 Phillies -700
 Orioles -700
 Marlins -100
 Twins 100
 Cubs 100
 Athletics -700
 Mets -100

Yesterday's results: -3,393
+130dogs -2,800
Other dogs 7
Favorites 100
Focus Picks -700
dogflips 0

YTD Total 20,868
+130dogs 12,299
Other dogs -514
Favorites -993
Focus Picks 10,738
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
August 18th, 2016 at 8:02:11 AM permalink
08/18/16 Picks:
 Red Sox 119
 Dodgers -150
 Braves 126 FOCUS 7X's
 Indians -197
 Royals -107
 Mariners 106
 Padres -102 FOCUS 7X's
 Mets 148 +130DOG 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
August 19th, 2016 at 5:57:10 AM permalink
08/18/16 Results:
 Red Sox -100
 Dodgers -150
 Braves -700
 Indians 100
 Royals 100
 Mariners -100
 Padres 700
 Mets -700

Yesterday's results: -850
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -200
Favorites 50
Focus Picks 0
dogflips 0

YTD Total 20,018
+130dogs 11,599
Other dogs -714
Favorites -943
Focus Picks 10,738
dogflips -662
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
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