It sure as hell doesn't if someone imagines the "count" of cards that are in a different deck at a different table based on what cards they saw dealt in some other deck at another casino the day before yesterday. No, that does not "work."Quote: steeldcoDrawingDead, I gather you aren't a fan of card counting in BJ? It doesn't work?
But when someone desires to "see" a pattern among independent events, they will indeed "find" what they seek if they are willing to squint hard enough long enough. I think it would be a shame if your interesting results from your baseball algorithm get buried under a muck of martingaling.
Quote: WikipediaThe gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature).
Quote: DrawingDeadIt sure as hell doesn't if someone imagines the "count" of cards that are in a different deck at a different table based on what cards they saw dealt in some other deck at another casino the day before yesterday. No, that does not "work."
But when someone desires to "see" a pattern among independent events, they will indeed "find" what they seek if they are willing to squint hard enough long enough. I think it would be a shame if your interesting results from your baseball algorithm get buried under a muck of martingaling.
You can quote Wikipedia, or anything or anybody else, but you have to be sure that you correctly understand the variables involved. Will all due respect, you are unilaterally applying a common wisdom. We'll focus on card counting in BJ. If you were to apply the common wisdom of the events being independent then you could not believe that card counting in BJ would work. As you suggested a couple of posts ago, how do you know that you're not at the beginning of a long losing streak even though the count may be in your favor?
I see there is apparently a belief system involved in some of the prospective choices on wager size, and this is not likely going to be a useful discussion to continue, with the potential to go 'round in circles endlessly. I hope you will track actual results of your algorithm in ways that do not become obscured by martingaling of your betting which is unrelated to the predictive utility of your work with your baseball data algorithm. Good luck.
But I got some chalk in my pocket, just in case I want to draw a hopscotch pattern on some sidewalk ;-)
Just feathers.
Marlins -150
Braves 1008
Twins 114
Rockies -100
Athletics 959
Dodgers 100
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: 1,831
+130dogs 1,967
Other dogs -86
Favorites -50
Focus Picks 0
dogflips 0
YTD Total 21,977
+130dogs 11,032
Other dogs -916
Favorites -1,918
Focus Picks 14,441
dogflips -662
Quote: beerseasonI'm glad I pushed my bets tonight. I raised mine to 50 got the desired outcome. I just flat bet everyone of your 7x bets. Although I am curious how a plus 130 dog fares when it is also a focus pick.
Unfortunately, I can't track those. The way that I accumulate the picks is a 2 step process. It selects all picks except the focus picks and then there a second algorithm applied to select the focus picks. Part of it is to disregard anything picked in the first step.
Rays 173 +130DOG 7X's
Nationals -186 FOCUS 7X's
Marlins 103
Diamondbacks 112
Cubs -216
Braves 129
Twins 105
Reds 163 +130DOG 7X's
Royals 117
Dodgers -194
Looks like you are back on an upswing though, keep em coming :)
Rays +1211
Nationals -1302
Marlins +103
Diamondbacks +112
Cubs +100
Braves +129
Twins -100
Reds +1141
Royals -100
Dodgers +100
Yesterday's results: +1,394
+130dogs +2,352
Other dogs +144
Favorites +200
Focus Picks -1,302
dogflips 0
YTD Total +23,371
+130dogs +13,384
Other dogs -772
Favorites -1,718
Focus Picks +13,139
dogflips -662
Phillies 185 +130DOG 7X's
Rays 180 +130DOG 7X's
Cardinals -164
Rockies 147 +130DOG 7X's
Twins 122
White Sox -104
Mariners 108
Quote: steeldcoI'm beginning to like the Phillies a whole lot more than I used to...................even though it's not over.
Howards double was yuuuuuuge.
Quote: beerseasonHowards double was yuuuuuuge.
Yep. A great start to a great day!
Phillies 1295
Rays -700
Cardinals 100
Rockies -700
Twins 0
White Sox -104
Mariners 108
Yesterday's results: -1
+130dogs -105
Other dogs 108
Favorites -4
Focus Picks 0
dogflips 0
YTD Total 23,370
+130dogs 13,279
Other dogs -664
Favorites -1,722
Focus Picks 13,139
dogflips -662
Then someone at the table says, 'I count a push as a win'.
I reply, 'I don't, just wear and tear on the cards'.
Mets -225 FOCUS 7X's
Astros -105
Yankees 120
Royals -156
Mets -1575
Astros 100
Yankees 120
Royals 100
Yesterday's results: -1,255
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 120
Favorites 200
Focus Picks -1,575
dogflips 0
YTD Total 22,115
+130dogs 13,279
Other dogs -544
Favorites -1,522
Focus Picks 11,564
dogflips -662
Cardinals 170 +130DOG 7X's
Nationals -260 FOCUS 7X's
Phillies 130 +130DOG 7X's
Astros 113
Angels 140 +130DOG 7X's
Red Sox -250
Tigers 175 +130DOG 7X's
Reds 104
Royals 105 FOCUS 7X's
Mariners 113
Pirates 154 +130DOG 7X's
Giants 112
Cardinals -700
Nationals -1820
Phillies 910
Astros 113
Angels -700
Red Sox 100
Tigers -700
Reds 104
Royals 735
Mariners -100
Pirates 1078
Giants -100
Yesterday's results: -1,080
+130dogs -112
Other dogs 17
Favorites 100
Focus Picks -1,085
dogflips 0
YTD Total 21,035
+130dogs 13,167
Other dogs -527
Favorites -1,422
Focus Picks 10,479
dogflips -662
Astros 140 +130DOG 7X's
Cardinals 183 +130DOG 7X's
Pirates 117 FOCUS 7X's
Phillies 107
Reds 120
Royals 129
Angels 108
White Sox 165 +130DOG 7X's
Diamondbacks 183 +130DOG 7X's
Rangers -168
Athletics 122
Orioles 140 +130DOG 7X's
Astros -700
Cardinals 1281
Pirates -700
Phillies 107
Reds 120
Royals -100
Angels -100
White Sox 1155
Diamondbacks -700
Rangers -168
Athletics -100
Orioles -700
Yesterday's results: -605
+130dogs 336
Other dogs -73
Favorites -168
Focus Picks -700
dogflips 0
YTD Total 20,430
+130dogs 13,503
Other dogs -600
Favorites -1,590
Focus Picks 9,779
dogflips -662
Rays -102
Indians -181
Marlins 112 FOCUS 7X's
Phillies 125 FOCUS 7X's
Nationals -225
Diamondbacks 146 +130DOG 7X's
Reds 111
Royals 110
Tigers -102
Athletics -103
Pirates 147 +130DOG 7X's
Quote: wezvidzAfter a few days of breakeven or slight losses following a number of steel's picks, I decided to do them all today but for about half what I normally wager. Oops. Absolutely killing it! Looks like 8-3, 3-1 on 7xs. Unless you're looking to hit 11 for 11, I say crack that bottle tonight :)
I was way ahead of you.......and now I'm hurtin'.
Rays 100
Indians 100
Marlins 784
Phillies 875
Nationals 100
Diamondbacks -700
Reds -100
Royals 110
Tigers 100
Athletics -103
Pirates 1029
Yesterday's results: 2,295
+130dogs 329
Other dogs 10
Favorites 297
Focus Picks 1,659
dogflips 0
YTD Total 22,725
+130dogs 13,832
Other dogs -590
Favorites -1,293
Focus Picks 11,438
dogflips -662
Indians 106
Yankees 108
Royals 128
Rays -173
Rockies 175 +130DOG 7X's
Mets 103 FOCUS 7X's
Angels 118
Pirates 128
Indians -100
Yankees 108
Royals 128
Rays 100
Rockies -700
Mets -700
Angels -100
Pirates 128
Yesterday's results: -1,136
+130dogs -700
Other dogs 164
Favorites 100
Focus Picks -700
dogflips 0
YTD Total 21,589
+130dogs 13,132
Other dogs -426
Favorites -1,193
Focus Picks 10,738
dogflips -662
Once again Steeldco thanks for sharing...
Orioles EV
Marlins 120
Royals 133 +130DOG 7X's
Indians -172
Athletics 127
Cardinals 148 +130DOG 7X's
Mets -160 FOCUS 7X's
Angels 105
Pirates -102
Orioles -100
Marlins -100
Royals 931
Indians 100
Athletics -100
Cardinals 1036
Mets 700
Angels 105
Pirates 100
Yesterday's results: 2,672
+130dogs 1,967
Other dogs -95
Favorites 100
Focus Picks 700
dogflips 0
YTD Total 24,261
+130dogs 15,099
Other dogs -521
Favorites -1,093
Focus Picks 11,438
dogflips -662
Quote: IndyJeffreygreat night yesterday -- thank you
You're welcome!
Yankees 133 +130DOG 7X's
Padres 188 +130DOG 7X's
Cardinals 107
Phillies 159 +130DOG 7X's
Orioles 105 FOCUS 7X's
Marlins 104
Twins EV
Cubs -285
Athletics 190 +130DOG 7X's
Mets 108
08/17/16 Results:
Yankees -700
Padres -700
Cardinals 107
Phillies -700
Orioles -700
Marlins -100
Twins 100
Cubs 100
Athletics -700
Mets -100
Yesterday's results: -3,393
+130dogs -2,800
Other dogs 7
Favorites 100
Focus Picks -700
dogflips 0
YTD Total 20,868
+130dogs 12,299
Other dogs -514
Favorites -993
Focus Picks 10,738
dogflips -662
Red Sox 119
Dodgers -150
Braves 126 FOCUS 7X's
Indians -197
Royals -107
Mariners 106
Padres -102 FOCUS 7X's
Mets 148 +130DOG 7X's
Red Sox -100
Dodgers -150
Braves -700
Indians 100
Royals 100
Mariners -100
Padres 700
Mets -700
Yesterday's results: -850
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -200
Favorites 50
Focus Picks 0
dogflips 0
YTD Total 20,018
+130dogs 11,599
Other dogs -714
Favorites -943
Focus Picks 10,738
dogflips -662