Rangers -106
Rockies 155 7X's
Tigers 144 7X's
Indians -134
Cardinals 109
White Sox 125
Quote: GWAEI went to the Pirates/Cardinals game last night. I know it is only 3 games but the Pirates look really good and the Cardinals look like they may be taking a step back finally.
The Cards lost a couple of very valuable pieces. They may be returning to earth after many decades of dominance. Pirates look great.
Rangers -106
Rockies 1085
Tigers 1008
Indians 100
Cardinals -100
White Sox -100
Yesterday's results: 1,887
+130dogs 2,093
Other dogs -200
Favorites -6
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total 1,887
+130dogs 2,093
Other dogs -200
Favorites -6
Focus Picks 0
Marlins 128
Astros 106
Red Sox 117
Cubs -153
Marlins 128
Astros -100
Red Sox 0
Cubs 100
Yesterday's results: 128
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 28
Favorites 100
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total 2,015
+130dogs 2,093
Other dogs -172
Favorites 94
Focus Picks 0
Yankees 113
Padres 125
White Sox 115
Red Sox 155 7X's
Reds 137 7X's
Brewers 118
Twins 145 7X's
Diamondbacks 137 7X's
Rangers 121
Athletics 150 7X's
Dodgers 114
why bet so much to start?Quote: steeldcoThe approach this year will be to start at the higher level (7X's) and then slowly decrease the size as the season goes on.
to quote my Mom
"That is suicide"
I thought as the advantage and bankroll increases one should bet more
especially in sports betting
for this year
what is your starting bankroll?
what math, if any, backs your high wager factor (7X)?
8X seems a better factor to me (2,4,8)
Sally
04/08 results:
Yankees -100
Padres 125
White Sox -100
Red Sox 1085
Reds -700
Brewers 118
Twins -700
Diamondbacks 959
Rangers 121
Athletics 1050
Dodgers -100
Yesterday's results: 1,758
+130dogs 1,694
Other dogs 64
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total 3,773
+130dogs 3,787
Other dogs -108
Favorites 94
Focus Picks 0
Quote: beachmonkeyhave been waiting for new season and your selections so much more than mear brain candy. good luck and hve fun and good fortune this year . beachmonkey
Thanks beachmonkey. Let's hope it's a great season with many long winning streaks.
Red Sox 110
Reds 122
Yankees EV
Marlins 142 7X's
Orioles 118
Brewers 120
Twins 132 7X's
Padres 127
Athletics 130 7X's
Won/Loss
Red Sox 110
Reds 122
Yankees 100
Marlins 0
Orioles 0
Brewers -100
Twins -700
Padres 127
Athletics 910
Yesterday's results: 569
+130dogs 210
Other dogs 359
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total 4,342
+130dogs 3,997
Other dogs 251
Favorites 94
Focus Picks 0
Blue Jays -134 Focus 7X's
Reds 115
Marlins 135 7X's
Cardinals -177
Orioles -102
Indians 110
Brewers 155 7X's
Dodgers 122
Padres -105
Athletics 181 7X's
Yankees 104
Blue Jays 700
Reds 115
Marlins -700
Cardinals 100
Orioles 100
Indians 0
Brewers 1085
Dodgers -100
Padres -105
Athletics 1267
Yankees 0
Yesterday's results: 2,462
+130dogs 1,652
Other dogs 15
Favorites 95
Focus Picks 700
YTD Total 6,804
+130dogs 5,649 <-----The ONLY picks worth playing. They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs 266
Favorites 189
Focus Picks 700
Pirates 148 7X's
Orioles 176 7X's
Phillies -129 FOCUS 7X's
White Sox -109
Reds 186 7X's
Won/Loss
Pirates +1036
Orioles +1232
Phillies -903
White Sox +100
Reds -700
Yesterday's results: +765
+130dogs +1,568
Other dogs 0
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -903
YTD Total +7,569
+130dogs +7,217
Other dogs +266
Favorites +289
Focus Picks -203
And BTW, for the first time this year I don't like this group of picks. Nonetheless, I'm sticking to the plan. They are what they are.
Diamondbacks 146 7X's
Braves 178 7X's
Orioles 148 7X's
Marlins 131 7X's
Royals 126
Rockies 122
Angels 105
Rangers -105
04/12/16 Results:
Diamondbacks +1022
Braves -700
Orioles +1036
Marlins +917
Royals +126
Rockies -100
Angels +105
Rangers +100
Yesterday's results: +2,506
+130dogs +2,275
Other dogs +131
Favorites +100
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total +10,075
+130dogs +9,492 <-----The ONLY picks worth playing. They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs +397
Favorites +389
Focus Picks -203
Angels -104
Rangers 140 7X's
Phillies -114 FOCUS 7X's
Yankees 108
Tigers 141 7X's
White Sox -105
Brewers 150 7X's
Rockies -102
Quote: beachbumbabsGeez, Steel. I hope you're betting real money. This is phenomenal so far.
Thanks beachbumbabs! I think I prefer the term "magical", but phenomenal fits.
Angels +100
Rangers -700
Phillies +700
Yankees -100
Tigers +987
White Sox +100
Brewers +1050
Rockies +100
Yesterday's results: +2,237
+130dogs +1,337
Other dogs -100
Favorites 300
Focus Picks +700
YTD Total +12,312
+130dogs +10,829 <-----The ONLY picks worth playing. They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs +297
Favorites +689
Focus Picks +497
Tigers 135 FOCUS 7X's
White Sox 104
Brewers 180 7X's
Rockies 111
Yankees 144 7X's
I show 57 completed gamesQuote: steeldcoNow that I have given it some thought, these results are neither magical or phenomenal. They are simply positive results from a lot of hard work..............
37 won 20 lost = 62.16% win rate
the 130+ games
23 won 15 lost = 65.2% win rate
I find that win rate going forward very difficult to sustain
but anything is possible, so goes the wisdom saying
now,
just bettin $100 to win X (X >129) I show a profit of $1,447 in 8 betting days
(with your difficult to find lines in Las Vegas sportsbook)
for all bets (bet $100 or Lay the Line) $2,604 profit
nice start to a season
you even got my Angels to jump and remain in1st place!
Quote: steeldcoThanks mustangsally. My expectation is for the +130 dogs to end up with a 48% win rate at the end of the season. The lines, btw, are from SBG Global.
Also, for further clarification, I would expect an average return of 148 for each 100 wagered. Again, this expectation is for the year. That should put it at similar to a 71% win rate (.48*148).
Quote: steeldcoAlso, for further clarification, I would expect an average return of 148 for each 100 wagered. Again, this expectation is for the year. That should put it at similar to a 71% win rate (.48*148).
One other piece of data. I would expect to have around 470 of the +130dogs picks over the year.
Quote: steeldcoOne other piece of data. I would expect to have around 470 of the +130dogs picks over the year.
Keep in mind, though (and I'm sure you do, this is more for the others) you've shown it tails off drastically mid-season...detail discussions in last year's thread...
Quote: beachbumbabsKeep in mind, though (and I'm sure you do, this is more for the others) you've shown it tails off drastically mid-season...detail discussions in last year's thread...
Thanks beachbumbabs. Absolutely correct. It is also the rationale behind starting the season at a max amount wager and then scaling down. Maybe even flipping the +130dogs for some period of time when the All-Star break approaches.
Yesterday's Results:
Tigers 945
White Sox 104
Brewers -700
Rockies 111
Yankees -700
Yesterday's results: -240
+130dogs -1,400
Other dogs 215
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 945
YTD Total 12,072
+130dogs 9,429
Other dogs 512
Favorites 689
Focus Picks 1,442
Rockies 220 7X's
Brewers 126 FOCUS 7X's
Blue Jays 115
Rays 111 FOCUS 7X's
Mets 141 7X's
Orioles 115
Cardinals -105
Royals 105
Giants 166 7X's
except you are at the start of a losing streak of length = 1Quote: steeldcoAnd here I thought that I would never lose again.......... :-). Time to start a new winning streak.
the winning streak for those that bet 1 unit ($100 on all dogs and lay the line on favorites)
is now at 9 wins in a row
going for 10 wins in a row
1 4/6/2016 93
2 4/7/2016 128
3 4/8/2016 306
4 4/9/2016 389
5 4/10/2016 446
6 4/11/2016 195
7 4/12/2016 556
8 4/13/2016 491
9 4/14/2016 150
yesterday won $150
when the probability of an event changes for the better, one bets more and in gambling many use Kelly betting.Quote: steeldcoThis is being done based upon the patterns that I have found in prior years' data.
It is no different than counting cards at blackjack and varying your wagers based upon the count.
You seem to just 7X the 130 dogs always and hold on for the ride that is coming
that is ok
but can not be the same as card counting 21
but still ok if you think it is
for those that bet just $100 (or 1 unit) on the dog (you bet differently of course)Quote: steeldcoYesterday was not a win. I am not out to confuse anyone.
all bets were dogs
Tigers 135 won 135
White Sox 104 won 104
Brewers 180 lost -100
Rockies 111 won 111
Yankees 144 lost -100
won 350
lost 200
net +150
going for 10 wins (days) in a row... from all your picks!
Yahoo
My Angels going for 5 in a row wins tonight
Quote: GWAEjust curious how you know when you should decrease bets? Are you going to a specific date?
Last year the +130dogs peaked on 06/22. My plan is to be back at 100, or flip them, at around that date.
Quote: steeldco04/15/16 Picks:
Rockies 220 7X's
Brewers 126 FOCUS 7X's
Blue Jays 115
Rays 111 FOCUS 7X's
Mets 141 7X's
Orioles 115
Cardinals -105
Royals 105
Giants 166 7X's
Rockies are winning 3 to 0 after 6 innings. Keeping fingers, and toes, crossed.......although painful.
Four errors + a passed ball. So far, in 8th with two more innings of opportunities to kick the ball around. Chicago looking like Cubs!Quote: steeldcoRockies are winning 3 to 0 after 6 innings. Keeping fingers, and toes, crossed.......although painful.
EDIT: Now five & counting as a typed. Rizzo's whiff was hilarious & all is right with the world.