Wynn Football Survivor Contest

I was at the Wynn yesterday and picked up the rules to their "Pro Football Survivor Contest." Here are the rules.

1. It costs $100 to enter. Max 10 entries per person.
2. 100% of entries to go to the winner, with $100,000 guaranteed prize pool.
3. Players pick one game a week, straight up (no point spread). You must win to advance.
4. The games with the biggest spreads will be excluded. The number of eliminated games depends on the week, as follows:

Week 1: 1
Weeks 2-4: 2
Weeks 5-7: 3
Weeks 8-10: 4
Weeks 11-13: 5
Weeks 14-15: 6
Week 16: 7
Week 17: 8
Post-season: None

There are some other rules about cancelled games, but since that rarely happens, I won't bother to list them.

I was wondering what strategy I would follow. In the early weeks I would pick strong favorites. However, if there were one huge favorite, I would probably not pick it, because I think most other players would, and it would not narrow the field much if they won.

Week 1, for example, does not have any huge point spreads. There are three seven point favorites. I would pick one of them, probably the Giants to beat the Panthers.

If the field were narrowed to 100 or so, and I were one of them, then I would try to swing the field. I would bet against the biggest favorite I could. Of course, I'd probably lose, but if I won, not only would I advance, but much of the competition would be eliminated. Then again, maybe the competition would be thinking the same way.

Comments? How would you play it?

Sounds like a good contest. But I admit I am (pleasntly) surprised that
Wynn has a 100 % payback on anything.

This is the same place that charged my wife $ 4.50 for a diet coke at the
bar she was playing a terrible pay schedule of video poker.

Oh well, it was fun to stay there, and they gave us a great deal on the
room. But if they look at how little we played there, I doubt we will
get any more good offers in the mail.

Slightly off-track:

Why don't they put in a few machines with decent VP pay schedules ? Most
of their guests probably won't have any idea to play those vs something
else, so they could still fleece most players and appeal to those few people
who are not totally math challenged.

I would play it almost exactly as you suggest, except that I don't think I'd ever cross the line and bet against a big favorite. I don't think you need that much risk to swing the field. I think it's better to pick a home favorite with a tight line (if possible) than to go farther and pick an underdog, let alone a big underdog.

I also like the Wiz's plan. It seems to me like your play
at the end depend on how many people are left AND how quickly
the pay-out drops down for 2nd, 3rd, 4th place etc ?

Quote: JohnnyQ

I also like the Wiz's plan. It seems to me like your play
at the end depend on how many people are left AND how quickly
the pay-out drops down for 2nd, 3rd, 4th place etc ?

Thanks. It is winner take all.

About the video poker, they do have 9-6 Jacks, but at the $5 denom and up. It used to be available on lots of machines at $1, but alas, no longer.

Are you allowed to pick the same team twice? In other "survivor" type tournaments, you are only allowed to pick a team once per season.

Assuming you can pick teams more than once, I would tend to shy away from betting underdogs away hoping for an upset, (especially since the games are straight up) and go with home favorites. Since there is no second place money, I would choose conservatively in hopes of lasting to week 17, then determine if an aggressive strategy is worth it (e.g., there are 1,000 entries still in the running).

Are players expected to return each week of the season to put in their selections? That alone will knock out a fair number of entrants. Also, with multiple entries allowed, you may want to consider putting in five entries so that you can shoot for a few upsets during the season without knocking yourself completely out.

So the contest runs through and including the Superbowl, or until there's only one man standing?

Since you have to be right every time to advance, I'm not sure I see the point in ever zagging. But if you did, I would think you would eliminate the most players if you took the biggest underdog available in week 1 (and were right); it could have the biggest spreads available in the duration of the contest.

Probably need to look at the schedule to see what the matchups are the first few weeks and anticipate the possible spreads, and maybe wait a week or two. But I'd zag as early as possible if I only had one entry.

It's not your job to eliminate the field. It's your job to make the best pick available every week to stay alive and let the field eliminate themselves.

If you want to zag then play twice. have 1 entry to the zigs and the other entry do the zags.

Quote: Chuck

So the contest runs through and including the Superbowl, or until there's only one man standing?

Since you have to be right every time to advance, I'm not sure I see the point in ever zagging. But if you did, I would think you would eliminate the most players if you took the biggest underdog available in week 1 (and were right); it could have the biggest spreads available in the duration of the contest.

Probably need to look at the schedule to see what the matchups are the first few weeks and anticipate the possible spreads, and maybe wait a week or two. But I'd zag as early as possible if I only had one entry.

Assuming you can take the same team week in and out, I'd let the crowd thin itself earlier on before making any moves... no need to try to be clever until you can see where the NFL itself is shaping up over the year.

As the number of 'good' games gets smaller as games get knocked out, then I think naturally you'll going to have to be lucky and will be taking different games from your opponents. Once there's only 10 match ups available, they'll be games that people will take both sides of.

I'd try and play more than one ticket down to that time though, so I could hedge myself.

Instead of betting against the biggest favorite, why not pick a team that's further down the spread list? Not everyone will chose the biggest possible favorite each time. It seems like your exposing yourself to too much risk by chosing the huge upset rather then chosing another, lesser favorite.

Edit: Also do you have to list out your choices in advance or do you get to submit the choices each week? Do you have to physically submit choices or can you enter the contest and then submit choices over the internet?

I don't see anything in the rules that forbids betting the same team multiple weeks. Yes, it runs through the postseason. The rules say that each weeks games to choose from will be posted by 1:00 PM on Wednesday. So, yes, you have to physically show up every week. That is the point to all handicapping contests -- to get you through the door as often as possible.

About letting the field narrow itself, I agree, but only early in the contest. Let's say there are 10 people left, where I'm one of them, and it comes down to the Super Bowl, which has a 7-point favorite. 7-point favorites win about 71% of the time. The rules say if there is more than one survivor at the end, then they will split up the prize pool. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the other 9 players will pick the favorite. If I pick the favorite my EV is .71*100,000=$71,000. If I pick the underdog my EV is .29*$1,000,000=$290,000. Of course that is a simplified example, and you don't know what the other people will do. However, I think most players will incorrectly let the field worry about itself and go with big favorites every week. If I'm right, it may put me in position for a key swing.

Quote: Wizard

I don't see anything in the rules that forbids betting the same team multiple weeks. Yes, it runs through the postseason. The rules say that each weeks games to choose from will be posted by 1:00 PM on Wednesday. So, yes, you have to physically show up every week. That is the point to all handicapping contests -- to get you through the door as often as possible.

About letting the field narrow itself, I agree, but only early in the contest. Let's say there are 10 people left, where I'm one of them, and it comes down to the Super Bowl, which has a 7-point favorite. 7-point favorites win about 71% of the time. The rules say if there is more than one survivor at the end, then they will split up the prize pool. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the other 9 players will pick the favorite. If I pick the favorite my EV is .71*100,000=$71,000. If I pick the underdog my EV is .29*$1,000,000=$290,000. Of course that is a simplified example, and you don't know what the other people will do. However, I think most players will incorrectly let the field worry about itself and go with big favorites every week. If I'm right, it may put me in position for a key swing.

Playing Streak For The Cash on ESPN.com for the past couple of years has definitely made me think about this sort of strategy a lot recently. I agree with taking a favorite, but one that is lower down on the list. The argument about the field eliminating itself is okay if the spreads were based on a concrete, mathematical advantage held by the team with the highest point spread. No such advantage exists in reality, but the majority of pickers will go for the biggest spread. They will every time. Go down a couple of games to the middle of the pack and make a pick. The #1 favorite available WILL LOSE eventually. Do you want to just be swept away with the majority or stick around and be one of the few that bucked the top pick? I go under the radar, especially because we aren't talking about the difference between a "lock" and a "maybe". I'd give up 10% of my winning chance (let's say the top pick has a 70% chance of winning, and I pick a 60%) to roll the dice and eliminate a lot of the field.

EDIT: To directly address your idea of going after the huge dog late in the game, there's no reason to risk betting it. If you are sure the overwhelming majority is going for one game, take a different game. If you take the dog, you will be in great position if they win. But those people will be KOed whether you bet the dog or not. So bet a different game, and you'll have a better chance of surviving, but still will be in a position to reap the benefits of the dog's win.

I am from Buffalo and have been a seaseon ticket holder for 20 years, until now. Just bet against the Bills each week and when they are 0 - 16 collect your money. Send me a thank you for the advice.

Are the games with the biggest lines completely off limits? Or can you take the dog but not the favorite in those games? Like the Pats/Bills game in week 16. Could a player take the Bills (@ home) in that game?

Quote: rdw4potus

Are the games with the biggest lines completely off limits? Or can you take the dog but not the favorite in those games? Like the Pats/Bills game in week 16. Could a player take the Bills (@ home) in that game?

Great question but it looks like the Wiz said those "games" are eliminated, not the teams. It seems like they should be willing to let you take the dog, but maybe they think reducing the available teams to pick helps consolidate the game.

I help my friend with his survivor pool every year. I know the correct strategy for this version.

1. You should play it straight up for at least the first half of the season. That doesn't mean always picking the top unexcluded favorite, but something close in that range at least.
2. Hopefully during the middle of the season, let's say week 10, there is a week where there are 5 heavy favorites. Since four are excluded, most people are going to be on that 5th game. That's a week where you take a chance, and take one of the marginal favorites.

Weeks 5-10 will be where most are eliminated, because of the bye weeks, there will be less games.

Don't pick road teams ever. My friend has been eliminated the last 3 years picking his one and only road team of the year.

Hope it helps.

What are your thoughts on Division games? Most people say dont pick them, but I think that might be selection bias.

Buy the 10 entries that you are allowed.

In the first week pick 5 games and bet the favorite on the first 5 tickets.
Hedge your picks by picking the opponents on the last 5 tickets.

This guarantees you 5 tickets in week 2.

Pick 2 games in week 2 and hedge your bets like you did in week one.
You can't hedge the 5th ticket and hopefully you will win on this ticket.
This hedging will give you 2 guaranteed winners and possibly a 3rd win if you win on that 5th ticket.

In week 3 hedge bet one game. Hopefully you have a 3rd bet from week two.

This brings you to week 4. If you have 2 tickets, hedge bet 1 game.
This gets you to week 5.

In week 5-------You're on your own.

I got you to week 5!
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I was once involved in a horse racing contest. It ran for 100 days, the length of the racing meet. It was FREE to enter so I gave it a shot.

Two factors determined the winner of the contest. First you had to survive to the final day and most importantly you had to have the most winnings.

Every day the track would pick 3 races. You had to make a bet in each race. If your horse ran in the money you would advance to the next day. I would always bet my horse to place. This gave me 3 chances to win in every race. As long as I had one horse in the money I would advance.

I survived until there were about 50 contestants left and I finally lost.

One day I was explaining to someone how this contest worked. He looked at me and said 'THAT SOUNDS TOO MUCH LIKE WORK'. I looked back at him and said 'YOU KNOW - YOU'RE RIGHT!'

I never entered the contest again.

I was at the Red Rock today, having lunch with NicksGamingStuff. They have what looks like the exact same kind of contest. Separate ones for the NFL and College. Much like the Wynn 100% of entry fees are returned to the winner, and there is a guaranteed minimum, in this case $25,000. Entries are $25 each, and you get 5 for the price of 4. There is also a bonus if you win both the NFL and college contests.

Quote: Wizard

I was at the Red Rock today, having lunch with NicksGamingStuff. They have what looks like the exact same kind of contest. Separate ones for the NFL and College. Much like the Wynn 100% of entry fees are returned to the winner, and there is a guaranteed minimum, in this case $25,000. Entries are $25 each, and you get 5 for the price of 4. There is also a bonus if you win both the NFL and college contests.

Will they provide a truncated list of college games, or let you choose from dozens that play every Saturday? I imagine it's just a few that they'll let you pick, and I wonder if they'll just make them more competitive rather than adding some and then eliminating the ones with the highest spread.

Quote: cclub79

Will they provide a truncated list of college games, or let you choose from dozens that play every Saturday? I imagine it's just a few that they'll let you pick, and I wonder if they'll just make them more competitive rather than adding some and then eliminating the ones with the highest spread.

Upon reading the rules to answer your question, I see at Stations you pick against a spread. It mentions that each spread will have a half, so there won't be ties. I just says there will be a sheet. I'd imagine it includes every NFL game, and all the college games one could normally bet on.

Quote: Wizard

Upon reading the rules to answer your question, I see at Stations you pick against a spread. It mentions that each spread will have a half, so there won't be ties. I just says there will be a sheet. I'd imagine it includes every NFL game, and all the college games one could normally bet on.

WIth the spread in play, it is definitely a different game than the traditional knockout. You now can't stay away from the heavy favorite in the hopes that a large part of the field will be KOed. Still, I would think the ATS game would end much quicker.

Hi Wizard,

I'm wondering if you decided to enter, and if so, how it's going. Did you pick Kansas City over San Diego in week 1? at least 20% of the field must have been eliminated on that one game.

I joined this contest pretty late last week, and the number of entrants was still in the low 400s, although that doesn't account for multiple entries per entrant. There probably wasn't an overlay on the contest, but I don't think the final pool will be much higher than the $100k guarantee. I had Tennessee over Oakland.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Hi Wizard,

I'm wondering if you decided to enter, and if so, how it's going. Did you pick Kansas City over San Diego in week 1? at least 20% of the field must have been eliminated on that one game.

No, I didn't enter. I live too far from there to justify the bother of making the trip every week until I'm eliminated. However, I did have a real bet on KC money line :-).