Super Bowl 2016
January 24th, 2016 at 7:29:22 PM
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I am shocked to see the Panthers only -4. I was expecting it to be 6 after that performance.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 24th, 2016 at 7:32:46 PM
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Quote: DRichI am shocked to see the Panthers only -4. I was expecting it to be 6 after that performance.
I am as well. I was thinking it would open at 7
January 24th, 2016 at 7:47:03 PM
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Quote: MidwestAPI am as well. I was thinking it would open at 7
I am guessing they are expecting the public money to come in on Peyton Manning. I just put a pretty good sized bet in and will buy back if it moves up enough.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 24th, 2016 at 8:47:58 PM
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I was hoping for something crazy like Broncos +7, but not expecting it.
My guess is that casual bettors will be on Carolina. They know that Manning is past it and doesn't win big games and all that. They've seen Carolina destroy two of the top teams in a row.
My guess is that casual bettors will be on Carolina. They know that Manning is past it and doesn't win big games and all that. They've seen Carolina destroy two of the top teams in a row.
January 24th, 2016 at 8:53:35 PM
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I heard there were a couple -3.5 at opening but I never saw them. I am happy with -4 and would have bet huge if I saw +7. I believe Stations opened at 5.5.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 25th, 2016 at 5:28:12 AM
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It's very early but according to thespread.com 80% of the public money has come in on Carolina. Classic battle of QBs youth vs. experience. Gotta go with youth.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
January 25th, 2016 at 5:48:13 AM
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I just made a very large wager on Denver +4.5.
January 25th, 2016 at 6:17:03 AM
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Quote: HowManyI just made a very large wager on Denver +4.5.
Good luck on that bet, but imo Carolina is much better than them.
The no safety in this game could be interesting. You have cam who likes to run and miller who could catch him. I could see a -15 yard play that results in a safety.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
January 25th, 2016 at 6:25:15 AM
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Quote: DRichI am shocked to see the Panthers only -4. I was expecting it to be 6 after that performance.
One should never put too much stock in one game. Here is my rudimentary handicapping of the Super Bowl.
The following table shows a summary of touchdowns and field goals for this season (regular and post season). For points I assume 7 for all touchdowns and ignore safeties.
| Score | Carolina | Denver |
|---|---|---|
| Touchdowns | 69 | 41 |
| Touchdowns allowed | 36 | 35 |
| Field Goals | 33 | 37 |
| Field Goals allowed | 21 | 30 |
| Pts./game | 32.33 | 22.11 |
| Pts. Allowed/game | 17.50 | 18.61 |
You can estimate points scored by either team as the average of (average points scored per game,average points allowed by opponents). This yields:
Exp. Car. Pts: 25.47
Exp. Den. Pts: 19.81
Exp. margin: Carolina wins by 5.67
Exp. total points: 45.28
The lines as I write them are Carolina by 4 and a total of 45.
As usual, the posted lines come quite close to the estimates using this model. Going by this rough estimate, the total at 45 is fair but if you're going to bet a side, bet Carolina.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 25th, 2016 at 8:11:12 AM
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Nearly every year for the super bowl I've picked the winning team (I definitely have above average luck with 16 of the last 20 super bowls). WARNING: I have absolutely no mathematical basis nor much football knowledge to back it up. I just want to give my pick early this year for fun... Denver will win.
Odd that Bovada doesn't have lines up for the game yet?
Odd that Bovada doesn't have lines up for the game yet?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 25th, 2016 at 8:51:06 AM
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Quote: RomesOdd that Bovada doesn't have lines up for the game yet?
On the surface, yes. But my experience is that they are very cautious and are probably waiting to let the line settle a little.
January 25th, 2016 at 9:44:53 AM
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I like conservative bets and I like Carolina. betonline.ag has the money line at -197 right now. So I'll do it this way. $100 (or any multiple thereof) on Carolina to win on the money line. And $30 (or any multiple thereof) to win against the spread. If Carolina wins the game (and it lookls like they surely will) I get something for my money. If they cover my $130 gets me $78. Of course, the amount I bet will be more but I haven't decided how much yet.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
January 25th, 2016 at 9:53:04 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster... If Carolina wins the game (and it lookls like they surely will)
LOL. I think I might want to change my pick because I hate being on the same side as someone that says something like this.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 25th, 2016 at 10:07:16 AM
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Quote: DRichLOL. I think I might want to change my pick because I hate being on the same side as someone that says something like this.
You're right, my statement was too strong. But Peyton Manning doesn't look all that tough to me anymore. Not tough enough to win a Superbowl. ESPN ranked him 28th out of 33. In the regular season he threw for 9 TDs and had 17 picks.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
January 25th, 2016 at 10:22:27 AM
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Denver's defense is the reason they are going to the Super Bowl. If they were able to rattle a veteran QB like Tom Brady, they will give Cam Newton fits. I still expect Carolina to eek out a win due to poor play by Manning, but I expect the game to be closer than many at this point. My "Swami Says" prediction is that Denver covers 4.5, but doesn't win outright.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 25th, 2016 at 10:35:37 AM
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Peyton Manning is very smart. During his absence due to injury, I believe came to the conclusion that he SUCKS, and needs to adjust his game. He seems to have embraced the "game manager" role and succeeded against a hot Pittsburgh team and New England. No INT's in either game.
He knows Denver's defense is special, and understands that if he can avoid big mistakes, they can beat anybody. Denver +4.5 seems like the right side to me.
Or am I completely full of crap?
He knows Denver's defense is special, and understands that if he can avoid big mistakes, they can beat anybody. Denver +4.5 seems like the right side to me.
Or am I completely full of crap?
January 25th, 2016 at 10:51:17 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaDenver's defense is the reason they are going to the Super Bowl. If they were able to rattle a veteran QB like Tom Brady, they will give Cam Newton fits. I still expect Carolina to eek out a win due to poor play by Manning, but I expect the game to be closer than many at this point. My "Swami Says" prediction is that Denver covers 4.5, but doesn't win outright.
Arizona's defense was only slightly less impressive than Denver's. They gave up only 1 more point and 37 more yards per game. And it was Cam who rattled them. His great mobility gives him a dimension Brady doesn't have.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
January 25th, 2016 at 11:01:17 AM
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If I can get +200 on Denver, I might make a small bet. Getting paid while seeing that smug look on Cam Newton's face get smacked off of him would be great.
Also, last year, I should have bet on Katie Perry showing cleavage during the halftime show. I knew it was going to happen, I mean come on, of course. I'm not going to miss a similar bet this time.
Also, last year, I should have bet on Katie Perry showing cleavage during the halftime show. I knew it was going to happen, I mean come on, of course. I'm not going to miss a similar bet this time.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
January 25th, 2016 at 11:22:16 AM
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Quote: HowManyPeyton Manning is very smart. During his absence due to injury, I believe came to the conclusion that he SUCKS, and needs to adjust his game. He seems to have embraced the "game manager" role and succeeded against a hot Pittsburgh team and New England. No INT's in either game.
He knows Denver's defense is special, and understands that if he can avoid big mistakes, they can beat anybody. Denver +4.5 seems like the right side to me.
Or am I completely full of crap?
Yes and no. I do believe you're correct in that Manning knows if he can make no mistakes, his defense can win it.
I don't think a player like Manning will ever "embrace" a game manager role as such, although he has been managing games since his early days at Indy.
Only 1 team has beaten Carolina this year, Atlanta. Atlanta is a talented but underachieving team. I do think that the Bronco's defense might see some similar success. The key will be can Payton avoid the mistakes and can his offensive line protect him. I have no doubts that Cam Newton will escape some pressure, but get clobbered at least a couple or three times.
The smart money may be on Carolina, but I've a hunch Manning will win out. Have to think experience counts for something at my age.
"Those who have no idea what they are doing, genuinely have no idea that they don't know what they are doing." - John Cleese
January 25th, 2016 at 4:28:00 PM
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I don't know about the Super Bowl, but I just got an offer from Total Rewards for 10% off on tickets for "The Big Game" and "The Pro Football Championship in Santa Clara on February 7." Actually, the next Big Game is currently scheduled for November 19 in Berkeley, but that's another story.
Strangely enough, the TR website where you buy the tickets does say "Super Bowl." I wonder why the E-mail doesn't.
Strangely enough, the TR website where you buy the tickets does say "Super Bowl." I wonder why the E-mail doesn't.
January 25th, 2016 at 4:29:38 PM
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Based on maths are we due for another wardrobe malfunction?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
January 25th, 2016 at 4:36:14 PM
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Quote: djatcBased on maths are we due for another wardrobe malfunction?
Siri said no. :(
January 25th, 2016 at 5:57:15 PM
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Quote: djatcBased on maths are we due for another wardrobe malfunction?
I assume that, after the last one, the halftime show is on a seven-second delay, so if there is another wardrobe malfunction, anybody watching on TV would not see it.
January 26th, 2016 at 9:21:22 AM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyI assume that, after the last one, the halftime show is on a seven-second delay, so if there is another wardrobe malfunction, anybody watching on TV would not see it.
The only reason I would watch the halftime is if I had some money on it. The commercials don't even interest me anymore since they are all available at my convenience online. I'd really like to see the Stanford University Marching Band perform, and attempt to slip something risque past the censors. During one half time anagram show, they spelled "NCUT".
SNL classic "Jingleheimer Junction"
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 26th, 2016 at 5:30:10 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaThe only reason I would watch the halftime is if I had some money on it. The commercials don't even interest me anymore since they are all available at my convenience online. I'd really like to see the Stanford University Marching Band perform, and attempt to slip something risque past the censors. During one half time anagram show, they spelled "NCUT".
SNL classic "Jingleheimer Junction"
I had never seen that one before. Hysterical!!!!!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
January 26th, 2016 at 7:24:24 PM
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What odds could I get on Carolina minus 23.5? New prediction... Panthers 41. Broncos 17
January 26th, 2016 at 7:34:15 PM
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Quote: HowManyI just made a very large wager on Denver +4.5.
I'm sorry.............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 26th, 2016 at 8:07:22 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOWhat odds could I get on Carolina minus 23.5? New prediction... Panthers 41. Broncos 17
I would lay five to one at +23.5 for any amount up to $500.
The winner would have covered that in four of the last 22 playoff games
January 27th, 2016 at 12:23:45 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOWhat odds could I get on Carolina minus 23.5? New prediction... Panthers 41. Broncos 17
I think you would be making a big mistake. It is easy to look at Carolina and think they and Cam Newton are almost unstoppable based on recent play. But traditionally when a really strong defensive team (Denver is first overall, first against the pass and third against the run), plays a strong offensive team like Carolina, the defensive is able to shutdown or at the very least slow down the offensive team.
Based on that history, Denver +5 seems a good bet to me. The only thing stopping me from making that bet is the fact that Peyton Manning for as great as he is and all the records he has, just doesn't play well in big games. That's all the way back to college, when he lost to conference rival Florida each year. There are some guys that just don't handle the pressure of the big game and it appears lovable Peyton may just be one of them. Even in his lone Superbowl win, he didn't play great. His team was far superior to the Bears and Rex Grossman and he benefited from a defensive TD. He basically managed the game. His team ran the ball for close to 200 yards.
It would be hard to not have something on the Superbowl, but right now, nothing strikes me as a good wager. Maybe I can find a couple small prop bets or something. :/
January 27th, 2016 at 4:23:40 AM
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Quote: kewljIt would be hard to not have something on the Superbowl, but right now, nothing strikes me as a good wager. Maybe I can find a couple small prop bets or something. :/
I have two ways I will gamble on the Super Bowl...
--I have .50 cent bet on Denver at 4/1 (before the Conference Championships) to win the Super Bowl.
--I will buy some Super Bowl Squares. I don't remember if those have been evaluated here but I am sure they aren't a good risk. I am a lifetime winner at them and will have to work very hard to become a lifetime loser; I won $2,500 on one as a supposed "high roller" at the Golden Gate two years ago. Basically, not enough people met their threshold and they dipped down a bit to fill the remaining squares. I won a quarter when Denver (?) went for a two point conversion. I got $2,500 in promo chips and turned it into $2,500 cash. Anyway, spending $5-$50 a year, it will take me a long time to be in the negative on this particular thing.
I think that will be it for me. I am learning more about sports betting here but I have no confidence in my ability to pick this game. It actually almost seems too easy with the way Carolina has played; those are the ones I usually lose.
January 27th, 2016 at 6:21:10 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaThe only reason I would watch the halftime is if I had some money on it.
That's not as much of a joke as it sounds. I know somebody who was in a variant Super Bowl pool once where one of the things you had to pick was, "Would halftime (from when the first half ended to the second half kickoff) last more or less than 30 minutes?"; "less" would have won, except that it was the game with the fake official run-in right before the second half kickoff.
January 27th, 2016 at 7:41:37 AM
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Quote: RonC
--I will buy some Super Bowl Squares. I don't remember if those have been evaluated here but I am sure they aren't a good risk.
Most places here give full value on the squares so they are an even money proposition. Just add up the prize money and if it is 100 times the price of a square then it is a 100% payback.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 27th, 2016 at 7:55:28 AM
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How about the fact that Carolina's offense has faced two of the top five defenses in the past two weeks and pretty much served them like redheaded stepchildren? How much better is Denver defensively than either Seattle or Arizona really? On paper atleast to me I don't see much of a difference other than Denver offensively attempting to control ball and game flow better than Az or Seattle offenses. What do ya'll think?
January 27th, 2016 at 11:54:43 AM
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I think Peyton knows he's done, win or lose, and he and his team are going to dig deep and make it at least competitive. They've been there before, they have a bad taste from having to live down SB 2014, and time zones are in their favor. I think Carolina deserves to be the favorite, but could easily blow up (more likely than many other teams) due to inexperience.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
January 27th, 2016 at 12:38:48 PM
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fwiw UK betting update.
The true odds being offered on Betfair are nearly 1/2 and 2/1 (1.50 and 2.98).
The bookmaker odds are Carolina shortening to about 4/9, while Denver are drifting at 19/10.
Personally if it's going to be a defensive game then Denver+5 at 10/11 sounds reasonable.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/american-football/market/1.122742484
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-denver-broncos/winner
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/american-football/
The true odds being offered on Betfair are nearly 1/2 and 2/1 (1.50 and 2.98).
The bookmaker odds are Carolina shortening to about 4/9, while Denver are drifting at 19/10.
Personally if it's going to be a defensive game then Denver+5 at 10/11 sounds reasonable.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/american-football/market/1.122742484
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-denver-broncos/winner
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/american-football/
January 27th, 2016 at 4:55:27 PM
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The line has steadily moved up from Car -4 to -5.5. Anybody think it will make it to -6 or more? I don't follow Super Bowl lines hardcore enough to know if line movement is the norm on the big game. I'm patiently waiting to bet Denver at the best line and thus far has been the right move.
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
January 27th, 2016 at 4:57:43 PM
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Quote: MoosetonThe line has steadily moved up from Car -4 to -5.5. Anybody think it will make it to -6 or more? I don't follow Super Bowl lines hardcore enough to know if line movement is the norm on the big game. I'm patiently waiting to bet Denver at the best line and thus far has been the right move.
I think there will definitely be some 6's this weekend. The question is do they stay around or will the big bettors take them off the board.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 27th, 2016 at 5:17:55 PM
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Like my sig, thanks, and I'll try. 😀
And totally off topic, but your opinion definitely, Definitely counts. From what I gather, you know more about gambling than 98.01% of the posters (not the gen public) here.
And totally off topic, but your opinion definitely, Definitely counts. From what I gather, you know more about gambling than 98.01% of the posters (not the gen public) here.
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
January 28th, 2016 at 10:26:52 AM
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+6 at Southpoint and Stratosphere. They will probably disappear but I now expect to see +6 everywhere in the next week.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 28th, 2016 at 12:53:00 PM
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I don't see No Safety and No Overtime on Bovada =P. Are they discontinuing these, or just posting them later?
Anyone else have some other local prices for these lines?
Anyone else have some other local prices for these lines?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 28th, 2016 at 1:34:59 PM
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Please keep betting on Carolina guys. Westgate has started offering +200 on Denver, I'd like to see +220 by the time I land next Friday.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
January 28th, 2016 at 2:29:38 PM
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I keep hearing how Denver has "no chance". People that have never bet a game in their entire lives are betting Carolina. Easy money they say.
This makes me like my Denver bet more each day. I wish I would've waited until now to bet at +5.5 or +6 though.
This makes me like my Denver bet more each day. I wish I would've waited until now to bet at +5.5 or +6 though.
January 28th, 2016 at 2:44:53 PM
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Quote: HowManyI keep hearing how Denver has "no chance". People that have never bet a game in their entire lives are betting Carolina. Easy money they say.
This makes me like my Denver bet more each day. I wish I would've waited until now to bet at +5.5 or +6 though.
I now believe we will see +6.5. I doubt we will see 7's stay on the board but it is possible the way the money is coming on Carolina.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 28th, 2016 at 2:54:14 PM
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Teams that score 40+ pts in the playoffs are 4-24 ATS in their next game.
January 28th, 2016 at 4:08:44 PM
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Good luck to all the squares.
February 8th, 2016 at 7:59:05 AM
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While football this year was break even for me, I don't think I've ever had a single team cost me more money in a one season than Carolina did. I didn't buy in the Panthers, picking/betting against them often, and falling short. Even in the playoffs, I took Seattle and Arizona ATS, and got beat. So, then on the biggest stage, I decide it's not too late to acknowledge I was wrong, and bet on them, and you know how that went!
